The Ukrainian “People’s Storm” Lays Waste Putin’s Dreams
AS ALLIED ARMIES were closing in on Nazi Germany from the East and the West, Joseph Goebbels launched the Volkssturm. Inspired by the great popular uprising of ordinary Germans against Napoleon, the Volkssturm (Peoples Storm) was composed of the very last reserves of German manpower. Old men and teenage boys were handed an armband and an anti-tank weapon and ordered to resist – to the death – the vast Allied armies advancing relentlessly, and unstoppably, towards the German heartland.
The creation of the Volkssturm was not just a hopeless gesture, it was a profoundly wicked one. By early 1945, Germany had already lost the war. Continued resistance was utterly futile. To send out old men in their sixties, and boys as young as twelve, to fight highly-trained and well-equipped soldiers was nothing short of murder. Only the leaders of a government bereft of ethics, who had lost all contact with the real world, could contemplate such a disastrous call-up.
What then should we make of the photograph posted on the Tea Leaves and Russia website showing what is purported to be a Russian soldier. The man has a white beard and looks to be in his sixties. He is standing before a Russian lorry and is carrying a Kalashnikov automatic rifle. But, the most remarkable detail of this photograph, circled in red by whoever sent it, is what this soldier is wearing on his feet. No combat boots for this man. He is expected to go into battle wearing plastic sandals!
Now, it is important to own up to the possibility that the photograph might be a fake. That what we are actually looking at is a Ukrainian grand-dad doing his bit for his country’s war effort by pretending to be this poorly-equipped Russian conscript-of-last-resort. Vladimir Putin’s Volkssturm.
But if the photograph is genuine: if this is the quality of the reserves Putin is throwing into the fight; then the general collapse of the Russian Federation (RF) forces in the face of the general offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) is explained. Against a military force trained and equipped with the latest high-tech weapons by the Americans and their Nato allies, whose commanders, unlike their Russian counterparts, are encouraged to take the initiative and make their own battlefield decisions, and whose already sky-high morale is now off-the-scale, the RF has very little to offer by way of effective resistance.
Images recorded on the advancing AFU troops’ smartphones show tanks and armoured vehicles abandoned on the roadsides. Perhaps they are empty of fuel. Perhaps they have no more ammunition left to fire at the enemy. Whatever the explanation, their crews have fled towards the east, desperate to reach the safety of the Russian border. Moscow is attempting to portray this as a “regrouping” – it is no such thing. What the world is looking at here (at least that part of the world which is not obsessively following the “coffin” – i.e. the body – of the late Queen on its journey south to London) is not a “re-grouping” – it’s a rout.
Just how serious the situation has become for the Russian Government of Vladimir Putin is captured in these words to the Russian President, supposedly spoken by a representative of the leadership of the Russian General Staff:
“Our troops have no more offensive capabilities, and soon there will be no more opportunities for defence. You lost Vladimir Vladimirovich!”
Taken together with the already confirmed reports of representative bodies in St Petersburg and Moscow passing resolutions demanding Putin be charged with treason, and reports of military movements in the capital suggestive of preparations for a military coup d’état and it is difficult to resist the conclusion that Putin’s political (and personal?) survival must now be considered doubtful.
Putin and his coterie of supportive oligarchs, bureaucrats, and politicians will be desperate, now, to fix the blame for the military catastrophe unfolding across Eastern Ukraine on his battlefield commanders. His mouthpieces are already calling for the execution of these “treacherous generals”. The military commanders of the Russian Federation must, therefore, move with the utmost haste to protect themselves from the wrath of “Vladimir Vladimirovich”. By decapitating the political leadership, before it decapitates them.
Not only is the personal survival of these principal players at stake at this critical moment, but so, too, is the general shape and structure of the Russian Federation.
In 1905, the Russian Czar, Nicholas II, suffered a catastrophic naval defeat at the hands of the Japanese Empire – an “upstart” power whose military capabilities the Russians had fatally underestimated. The result was a nationwide uprising which came within an ace of overturning the Russian autocracy.
Putin’s oligarch allies will not want defeat at the hands of the “upstart” Ukrainians to spark a third Russian revolution. Better to depose Putin quickly and cleanly, make peace with Ukraine, and restore a measure of normality to the Federation, Europe, and the world in general. As Bob Dylan has the gangster Joey Gallo say in his eponymous ballad: “It’s peace and quiet that we need to go back to work again.”
At any other time, developments on this scale, and of this importance, would be dominating our headlines and, like the Ukrainians themselves, the rest of the world would be following the advance of their forces with bated breath. Only time will tell whether the Western World’s utter distraction by the death of Queen Elizabeth II, and the accession of King Charles III, was a help or a hindrance to the Ukrainian offensive.
It is, however, possible that the Queen’s death, by distracting the West, prevented its more hawkish leaders from making the sort of accusations and threats that only ever end up strengthening Putin’s hand. That Ukraine’s armies racked up their victories while the eyes of the West were elsewhere, may yet prove to have been the most extraordinary stroke of good luck.
By dying when she did, the Queen may well have saved the life of that sandal-wearing Russian greybeard, as well as tens-of-thousands of equally ill-equipped and poorly-trained Russian troops, and given the Armed Forces of Ukraine the clear airwaves they needed to drive Putin’s armies back across the border.
Goebbel’s Volkssturm could nor rescue the Third Reich, but Volodymyr Zelensky’s “Peoples Storm” (with a little help from the Americans) has made it possible for Ukraine to lay waste the fondest hopes of Vladimir Putin – and his allies in Beijing.
Withdraw to drop a ‘tactical’ nuke.
Followed shortly after by nukes on St Petersburg and Moscow fired from roving UK (6), French (3) and USA (16) submarines in the Baltic and Mediterranean seas. “Tactical” nuclear weapons are not a save option. An option yes, but the consequences immense.
Correct Gerrit but there is chemical warfare and a very unstable Putin to add to the mix.
Sorry mate, the prevailing wind blows east. So, a nuke detonated in Ukraine would scatter fallout across Russia.
Besides I doubt the military would listen to Putin even if he issued such an order.
Sorry Andrew you are basing your opinion on the fact that Putin is sane and “hoping” his military will ignore his orders.
Hahahah, imagine believing that this massive sacrifice of Ukrainian young men by the tyrant Zelensky is strategically significant. Literally a PR move as he was demanding more weapons from Europe and America.
Meanwhile Putin is finally starting to take the gloves off.
Maybe the gloves have been requisitioned for gross incompetence?
Now just waiting to be called a Zionist and / or a Yank . .
LOL
Well we will see I guess but Chris here has a very different view of the military dynamics in Ukraine and of the political dynamics in Russia to mine. For a start does any one think that Russia would be acting any differently with any other likely leader? And if you are saying “Yes with Navalny as president” well Navalny commands a max of 2% support in Russia so he is not a contender. None of the leading figures in Russian Politics likely to take over would be acting any differently to how Putin is acting and Russia would not be doing anything different.
To depict that nation and that leader as an incompetent rabble led py a crazed megalomaniac despot who only needs to be assassinated to solve all the problems is a very dangerous delusion IMHO.
D J S
Navalny is the top candidate of Russian neonazis, so he could symphonize with the Ukrainians more.
You really are a deluded and ignorant fool Mr Khan. You obviously have no idea who Navalny is or what he stands for.
David Stone, in answer to your own question, yes Navalny would be different. As for his polling? Accurate polling is not possible in a dictatorship. Putin will be difficult to overthrow but if the defeats keep coming, who knows?
Can you explain why though Russia has elections just like we do and the US does , we are democracies but Russia is a dictatorship?
We might not be as good a comparison as US because we have no president. But the main distinction I see between the US presidency and the Russian one is that everyone knows that the US president does not make any decisions; he is a mouthpiece for those in the deep state behind the scenes, those with economic power decide he should do. Whereas the elected president in Russia does seem to have a lot of influence on policy and implementation. This seems to me to bias the Russian system as more democratic than the US as he is at least elected.
How would you change the Russian system to make it a democracy? Or is it simply a matter of changing the elected representatives?
D J S
What flawed thinking. Russia’s elections are rigged with a virtual opposition sitting in the Duma. If you don’t support Putin you don’t sit in the Duma and probably will be in jail. Buy Mikhail Khodorkovsky’s book which has just come out. Do some bloody research! Enough of these bone headed theories!
So How would you change the Russian system to make it a democracy? Or is it simply a matter of changing the elected representatives?
D J S
By definition if someone else, even from the inner circle, takes over it will be as a result if Putin’s military adventure having failed.
The new leader will withdraw back to the pre February borders and will try and restore civil relations with the West.
It won’t be easy. There will be a lot of distrust.
You think?
Medvedev is clearly making a bid for power with extreme nationalistic statements .Far more extreme than Putin
As well,Navalny supported the reintegration of Crimea into Russia,so he would oppose Zelensky on that score
I’m sure Navalny could reach a compromise on Crimea. He’s a lawyer not an ex KGB thug.
I’ve got a major issue with most pro and anti Russian commentaries. That is the speculative nature that cannot be substantiated by fact. For example what do we kmow about Putin except from pro Western sources. On the net the search algorithms point him out as the devil, after searching Russian sources he is a Saint. Fact is every opinion is biased. Yours Chris seems written but not substantiated, opinion only.
Extrapolation can help. We know from NATO sources that Russia has 1.3 million troops. Up to 100,000 have gone to Ukraine. So are the Russians really short on troops? Simple question bypassed by most commentaries.
What we don’t have is the battle readiness of those reservist troops in regards, training and placement. Nor the state of the equipment they need to be battle ready. One thing to have 1.5M “on the books”. But are they “boots on the ground”ready for combat? Putin can only draw (mobilise) on those troops if he declares a war.
The retreat may well be tactical in regards that he wants to get the Ukrainians to enter or shell Russian territory to be able to declare a war and thus initiate full mobilisation and call those 1.5M reservists into the fray. The Russian main distribution point Belgorod is now well within range of Ukrainian artillery.
If Ukraine manages to destroy the Kerch Bridge than Russian supplies to their western front at Kherson (and the defense of Crimea) can only come down the coast road and rail line. Partisan activity is strong along that supply route. Russian navy seems to be confined to the Azov Sea and eastern Black Sea. Not much Russian naval activity in the western Black Sea especially around the Kherson and Odessa ports.
The 1.3 million covers all three services. The Army is about 500,000, with around 40% having been deployed to Ukraine. With around 30,000 killed, maybe more. So nearly 10% of the Army. This is a huge percentage.
In short Russia, has lost the strategic initiative, and maybe the war.
Finland all over again.
Are you searching Russian sources in English or in Cyrillic? I’m not sure that your research questions are valid.
‘if’ and ‘supposedly’….
Excellent commentary Chris. Thanks
Let’s hope for a quick surrender, Putin taken out into the woods to be shot and the West getting behind the rebuilding of Ukraine.
There’s a nice forest at Katyn
https://fb.watch/fvzgJmglvx/
Interesting channel to watch.
Chris is right about one thing, the West’s attention was elsewhere. In my case, this war was a mismatch thus I found it boring, the unsettling stories of thousands of deaths aside. But now, now that the boot appears to be on the other foot, perhaps now the calls for peace will start sounding given that they’ve been notably absent while Russia was basically stomping wherever it pleased in Ukraine.
Peace for the people – would be nice.
Gerrit, that’s an awful amount of what ifs, suppositions etc. And yes, we don’t know what the other Russian troops are like. We do know however that they are regular volunteers (according to NATO), not reservists. Are they any good? Will they even be committed? I don’t know. I will however continue to make judgement by reading the map, referenced again a week or two later.
Yes there are a lot of unknowns. That is why the fog of war is so called. However lets take the mobilisation of 500K troops (greater numbers would clog a active battle area). We can say they have clothing (winter) body armour and personal weapons.
That is 1.5M meals per day, 500K beds/bivouacs/tents, latrines, transport (at 40 men per truck) of a convoy of 12,500 trucks to deliver men from the railhead (yes they can be staggered but at least 4000 trucks to bring the first wave up. Once in action they will need 500K daily MRE combat rations. At a daily requirement of two liters of water per day, that is a million litres of fresh water to be sourced daily. (or at least 6 to eight water purification tablets per day). Now having the 500K troops in place they need at least 6 AK74 magazines (30 round mags x6 = 90Million rounds of 5.45×39 ammunition) per man. Now we haven’t looked at squad weapons and ammunition yet. All has to bought up from the rear railhead to the front line by truck.
Yes they have a large body of manpower available but the sheer logistics to get them onto the battlefield and keep them fed and watered during combat is huge.
All doable but at huge cost and logistical effort.
Out of the 1.5M men how many would be front line? 500K would be my estimation. The rest required to maintain their health and combat effectiveness.
Interesting conundrum the Russian logistical operations are facing.
https://sofrep.com/news/sitrep-russian-rail-sidelined-by-sanctions/
Do you think that the Russians might have thought about logistics? They only fought the previous set of Nazis 77 years ago, you know.
What we know is that the Russian logistic 77 years after WW2 is a complete shamozzle. What the Russian nation (that included Ukraine) did way back 77 years ago does not mean a better situation today.
In WW2 they Russians did not have a huge officer and supplier class skimming the logistical gravy train.
Worth a look
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i9i47sgi-V4
You lot cry to much
On the face of it the Ukrano-NATO forces have made significant inroads re the Ukrano-Russian zone (don’t forget that this is not a binary Ukraine/Russia conflict but largely an enhanced civil war, which actually kicked off in 2014). The “front” where the Ukrano-NATO-Nazi mercenaries have breached was relatively thinly held. The situation is that the Ukrainians are fighting a war and the Russians (and eastern Ukrainians) have, in spite of what the Western media try to distort, been conducting a “Special Military Operation”. They have not taken their gloves off. If the USA had been conducting an “invasion” (as per Iraq) then there would have been little left of Ukraine’s civil infrastructure (electricity supplies, water treatment facilities, transport hubs etc.). It remains too early to be sure of an outcome and I see only more escalation, death and suffering on its way.
Liminal – an interesting take but totally wrong of course.
Interesting Chris, i hadnt realised things within Russia were getting so tense.
I think the problem with assuming Putin will be ousted is twofold.
1) There is something within the Russian soul that embodies the mythology of the Russian underdog and suffering. They believe in the fight for survival and love ‘strong men’ leaders. So Putin probably still has a surprising amount of support from the rank and file.
2) If the rumours are true of him having built a more or less unassailable control centre and home then the issue is how will they get to him or take him out? Betrayal would be the only way and Putin is the ultimate intelligent street thug so we shouldnt assume he isnt watching all around him like a hawk.
All this predisposes the other great rumour that Putin is very ill and in fact, perhaps even dead.
All very interesting. Perhaps we should be talking though about our Aotearoa position which is that we’re on the side of NATO and Ukraine. Which is really disgusting. Because, as Jacinda said, we just want to ‘do our bit’ to help. We have to maintain our security alliances with the countries (US, UK, Australia) and alliances (NATO), that represent the most ruthless and dangerous threat to the entire world ffs.
BTW, a friend told me that Brenton Tarrant apparently referenced Ukraine in his manifesto with great enthusiasm about how much he was inspired by the people (neo-Nazis?) there.
Where’s the anti war movement? Remember it wasn’t just the Nuclear Free pacific, it was the Nuclear free and independent Pacific. Can’t we think for our Pacific selves? Fuck being involved in destructive geopolitical imperial ambitions because we’ve taken sides. We could have taken some actual moral high ground what a wasted opportunity of Jacinda’s international popularity.
You are disgusting Maxine. Put your head in the sand like an ostrich. Small minded nationalist.
Anti war movement hobbled because you’re not allowed to be anti war if you’re talking about Russia, or other official enemies.
Thank you Maxine, well said. The world is at war, and we appear to have chosen to support the unipolar US world, no debate. We merely took the party line confirming who we are “owned” by. That may be fine if we are on the “winning” side, as it stands it appears to me that we need to stand on our own feet as an honest broker, not a vassal.
Bad call Nick J. It’s about human rights. Taking a moral stance.
Too funny Cantab, where we’re you when the Ukrainian army was bombing the Donbas? Guess human “Rights” only matter when it’s not your side on the receiving end,
You’ve kind of missed the point though Cantabrian. A “moral stance” would be a neutral stance, encouraging diplomacy and not war. A position that you can’t take once you’ve taken sides, which is what NZ has done. All we’ve done is fuel it. This Ukraine conflict has a historical context – the Russian army didn’t just wake up one morning and think “oh, nice day to invade Ukraine”.
I know the historical context Maxine. I have both Russian and Ukrainian blood. I could be a citizen of either country. Unfortunately though pacifism is not an option for the people of Ukraine. Doing nothing is to accept the barbarities of Putin’s criminal regime. Would you have fought against Hitler? Don’t forget that during the Cold War, the KGB was financing the CMD and other peace movements.
I for one and most other Kiwis I’ve heard express an opinion on this war support Ukraine. They were the ones invaded ffs and are defending their homeland. Who doesn’t support them here in NZ besides a few “Russian” trolls? Zelensky has been amazing, almost Churchill like through this crisis!
“Is nuclear escalation possible?”
The Economist, Sep 14, 2022
@5:48 minutes
…There have been constant concerns about potential nuclear escalation throughout this campaign, and in my opinion those concerns have been somewhat overegged and over rated. Yes, there is apprehension that if there is a sudden collapse of Russia’s armies, particularly if the Ukrainian army begins to threaten territory that Russia considers to be a sovereign part of Russia. But I think we are some way away from this at this point in time. And the risks of that course of action would be enormous, perhaps riskier than grinding out the current path.
Is a Ukrainian victory possible?
@6:23 minutes
….I think what the significance of this offensive is, is not that it means victory is around the corner, or that it means it is imminent. What it does is something, in some ways, as important. It shows us that victory is possible. And it shows those who doubted that Ukraine could dislodge Russia, (that this was a forlorn hope). It shows them that the war is winnable. And that message is of huge inestimable value both for the Ukrainians and the International Community supporting them through a winter that is going to be difficult, tough, with high gas prices on top of a cost of living crisis. It shows them that victory is also possible….
Is Putin’s political future at stake?
@7:56 minutes
For Putin losing this battle, in the way that Ukraine defines it, would be the end of his regime, would be the end of the political system. It could be the end of Russia as we know it at the moment. Putin’s legitimacy is entirely based on his success, on victory….
….So this is a big setback, and his legitimacy will suffer…
…It is very hard to imagine that this regime could actually collapse, suddenly and unexpectedly, as the Soviets once did.
….As one anthropologist wrote about the Soviet regime. “Everything was forever. Until it wasn’t”
@7:57 minutes
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9lXxWmwxlME