The many winners and one loser of the Tamaki Makaurau by-election

ByMartyn Bradbury

The 2025 Tamaki Makaurau by-election matters so much, not because of who will win, but because of how the fight will be portrayed by the right in the 2026 election.

The focus of the Right is to paint the Māori Party as so impossible to work with that Chippy will be held hostage and all white people will have to legally allow a Māori to move in and occupy their home lawns until a new national anthem is written in Te Reo.

With the Māori Party selecting Oriini Kaipara as their candidate, Labour selecting Peeni and the Greens deciding to sit this by-election out, the race is really between Labour and the Māori Party.

Politically there are a couple of winners and one loser.

 

 

 

WINNERS:

Oriini Kaipara – Genuinely surprising decision within the Māori Party to go with Oriini rather than John Tamihere. If the candidate had been John, the by-election was most likely his to win, by appointing Oriini, a candidate with zero political experience, it is a little more open. She has an incredible back story of being a single mum at 16 that will resonate with many Māori voters and her confidence during her media performances so far has been remarkable. She is an excellent candidate.

 

Labour – Will be breathing. sigh of relief they are not up against JT, they have a monster machine in Auckland and will be leaning into that to win. Peeni has an enormous political background to choose from to show case what Labour have done for Māori. Jobs, Houses and Health are the 3 issues Labour will champion.

Green/Māori relationship – The Green decision to stand aside has been widely interpreted as a thawing of relationship between Maori Party and Greens. There has not been enough behind the scenes strategising between the two of them to prevent NZF from working with Labour at the next election but this move could help strgethn the logic of that strategising.

 

LOSERS:

Hannah Tamaki and the Destiny Church: My sadness at Tarsh Kemp’s early death is matched by my fury that  she leaves us under the cloud of false allegations levelled at her, the Manurewa Marae and the Māori Party over political corruption.

Allegations that have seen no charges laid despite multiple inquires.

Allegations made by a bitter Destiny Church splinter group!

When Destiny Church isn’t bashing librarians, attacking other faiths on the street and abusing story telling drag queens, they are making malicious allegations of corruption.

The mainstream media never like to tell you that the allegations against Tarsh, the Manurewa Marae and Māori Party were made by Destiny Church factions.

The true corruption is the smear against Tarsh, the Manurewa Marae and the Māori Party!

Hannah Tamaki has entered the race, her church were responsible for the smears against Tarsh and their current use of street violence against other faiths I believe should make her ineligible for any By-Election debates.

 

PREDICTIONS: 

The most important part of this by-election is the manner in which the candidates and supporters behave.

Any harsh or nasty language towards each other and each others parties will be seized upon by The Platform, ZB, NZ Herald, Mike Hosking, Luke Malpass, Heather Duplicity Allen, The Centrist, Chris Trotter, etc etc etc as proof positive that Labour can never work with the Māori Party.

There is more at stake here than just the winning or losing of the by-election, if the battle gets nasty, all that venom will be put on display by the right as evidence that the Māori Party can’t work with Labour.

A by-election win in 20205 could seed the

What Labour and the Māori Party, have to do is use this by-election and the debate to show how respectful they can be, how the Kaupapa can be promoted positively as a show case of what can be achieved using Māori values.

If Peeni and Oriini can lift this debate to a truly mana enhancing performance, they win over the nation, not just a by-election.

Data crunch from 2023:

 

Turnout by Descent (2023)

  • Māori‑descent turnout (all enrolments): ~79.5 %
    (Compared to ~80.8 % for non-Māori)
  • Turnout among Māori-roll electors (by age group):
    • Aged 18–24: 83.7%
    • 25–29: 71.8%
    • 30–34: 71.5%, gradually increasing to 88.4% among 60–64, then stabilizing around 83–84% for older cohorts

These figures show Māori turnout was solid and higher among younger adults compared to general Māori-descent turnout.

Enrolment & Voter Numbers (2023)

From candidate and turnout spreadsheets electionresults.govt.nz:

Party Votes (Electorate-wide, 2023)

  • Labour Party: 43.4%
  • Te Pāti Māori: 30.2%
  • Green Party: 12.1%
  • National Party: 4.8%

The Maori Party have been pushing heavily to mobilise in Tamaki Makaurau while Labour has a monster infrastructure.

The determinate is turn out, barely 64% voted in the last election, if the usual older Māori voter votes, Peeni wins.

 

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4 Comments

  1. Peeni can choose not to try and steal the election. It’s that simple

  4. This is a soft political launch for Oriini as Peeni will almost certainly carry the baton from Tarsh here, which is a good thing as he no doubt has good relationship with the Māori party. But her introduction to the political stage has been set and she will stand in the general election no doubt. It seems like a smart arrangement by the Māori party to me as JT doesn’t need the profile and if he wanted to stand, he would’ve.

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