The Chippy Butty Budget – 0% nutrition – 100% taste: Winners, Losers and Predictions
It’s a Chippy Butty Budget.
0% nutrion – 100% taste.
It does enough to make you consider voting Labour without really promising to do anything outside the neoliberal straightjacket that Labour are locked into.
Here are the concerns of NZ voters…
…and Labour have made a good job of attempting to respond to those concerns.
There is the symbolism of a high tax on the income of Trusts and lowering childcare to include 2 year olds while increasing food funding in schools, but there is nothing radical that NZ really needs to start working on the grotesque underfunding of our infrastructure.
WINNERS:
Mediocrity: This is the best Labour can produce with an MMP majority. Jesus wept.
Beneficiaries + Kids + Education: The lower transport costs and removal of prescription fees with extensions to healthy homes all benefit the poor. We will also expand early childcare and there is 300 new classrooms.We can not allow the perfect to eclipse the good, and there is good here.
Immigration: Open the flood gates, Labour will simply use mass immigration in the exact same way Key did to prop up our low wage economy and create fake growth.
Science: The Science City investment sound interesting and is necessary. Good to see the gamers getting some love as well.
LOSERS:
NZ: We need vision, we need courage, we need political leadership. We got a Chip butty instead.
ACT: Their alternative budget where they spell out the most radical privatisation agenda and slashing of welfare ever suggested in a manifesto will look positively fascist in comparison to this.
National:
This messaging by the right, that the Left ‘splashes around cash’ highlights how bankrupt the debate on State spending has become.
New Zealand has an egregious infrastructure deficit in NZ!
Because our under regulated capitalism has been robbed of revenue by a rigged economic system that benefits the rich ,we are desperately needing more hospitals, more passenger rail, roads, schools, storm repair, tens of thousands still waiting for State Houses
The reality is that we are not spending nearly enough and we need a far larger State capacity, not less of it!
There is a class war happening right in front of our eyes as the wealthy pour millions in donations to National and ACT while Climate Denying Federated Farmers join ACT and National push for landlords to have the power to evict when some of their biggest donors are Real Estate pimps.
The political project of the right is to amputate the State’s capacity to raise revenue so that it can’t be redistributed in the first place.
The top 5% of NZers own roughly 50% of NZs wealth, while the bottom 50% of NZers own a miserable 5%!
Are those stats that live up to the egalitarian dream of NZ?
The ‘cash was splashed around’ by Labour as the price paid to prevent a mass death event from a once in a century pandemic.
Pretending otherwise is simply rewriting history while denying the underfunded present which dooms us in the future.
We need a bigger State, not a smaller one.
Rich Pricks hiding in Trusts: They get pinged with a higher tax.
PREDICTIONS:
The most important political lesson I’ve ever learned in NZ Politics is from the Laila Harre School of change.
Back when she was in Alliance, she had to force Labour to agree to maternity leave.
Can you remember and imagine that?
Having to force Labour to give maternity leave?
Laila teaches us that if we ever want the Labour Party to actually serve the people and not the vested interests of the Professional Managerial Class, then you need to smash Labour’s head against a wall, put a gun to their head and scream ‘do it’.
That’s the only way Labour will act in the interests of the people, if you force them to.
Look at the resistance Labour are digging in to stop any debate on Tax despite the IRD showing us NZ Capitalism is rigged!
There are 14 Billionaires in NZ + 3118 ultra-high net worth individuals, let’s start with them, then move onto the Banks, then the Property Speculators, the Climate Change polluters and big industry!
Labour’s acquiesce to the neoliberal economic straightjacket is the price they pay to remain in power because as we have seen they are beholden to the Professional Management Class and corporate lobbyists, the only way we get anything actually progressive out of them is if we force them.
Labour’s greatest fear is a Bernie Sanders type of left wing populism, as food inflation continues to burn working people, the Māori Party’s demand to remove GST from food and to tax the rich is terrifying the interests of the ultra wealthy and that is why we are seeing the kind of insane donations difference between Labour and National/ACT.
Thankfully ACT and National have promised to give Landlords the power to evict and build a new prison empire on top of stupid ideas like giving everyone a receipt from the Government! In comparison to the crazy National/ACT agenda, Labour look positively socialist!
The real possibility we are facing this election is a Labour led minority Government with a supply and confidence agreement with the Māori Party, the price of which will be a range of policies that will have an immediate material impact on poor peoples pockets.
Over it’s 30 year history, MMP has diluted the ideological zeal of the Left and Right by always generating a middle centrist power block.
This election is utterly different to any before it.
This time it is the pent up ideological frustrations from the Right and the Left that will dictate to the centre.
This time it will be Labour held hostage to the Greens and Māori Party OR it will be National held hostage by ACT.
It will result in the most Left Wing Government since Savage or the most Right Wing Government since Lange!
That is ironically what is at stake this election, either the most Right Wing or Left Wing version of Labour.
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It is a reductionist position to dwell on the bourgeois Parliament as the font of all Aotearoa NZ politics.
Te Pāti Māori are out there organising not just sitting in offices feeding media channels. Sure they are a minor player as yet, but they are showing the way that others should follow. Another poster fears the incoming migrants influence as residents on our elections–well don’t forget–many migrants are working class carers, labourers, IT & Telecom installers etc. and not automatic Natzo supporters–or voters.
The Budget was a typical monetarist non event for the working class of this country. Robbo is locked into the 30% net debt ceiling which is ridiculous when you look at what he did to bail out employers and fuel the property bludgers during COVID.
Rare is the day when an MMP majority eventuates…very fucking rare actually…yet the neo Blairist Labour Caucus managed to let a major opportunity for change slide by. And Natzo commenters…at the very least Robbo scuttled your chances I guess with his “small target” approach.
Interesting help for gamers. Of course it is known that gamers make the best drone operators. Now, who at national level would want to employ drone operators?
Well come the election and subsequent elections till 200 billion is paid off the government, who ever is in charge is going to have to raise taxes revenue by targeting a small cohort of tax payers who are fairly well off.
On that bases I would expect to see very industry specific taxes expanded and/or decreased. Petroleum taxes maybe a target, sugar although I’m not convinced. Perhaps even bank levies but I think trying to design a John Heart tax specifically for him and his one mate kind of misses the mark. A lot of people say China owns a lot of New Zealand but a lot of them don’t know that Warren buffet owns more. So I think targeting John Heart is a bit miss guided.
Otherwise what we might expect from a post election budget is a change to concessions that are available to all tax payers for significant global entities. Now a significant global entity is a New Zealand Tax payer that is a part of a group that earns more than a billion dollars in revenue per year.
Some of the concessions might include dividends earnt offshore by a private New Zealand entity or perhaps the government might want to increase financial transaction fees on a range of things including and or removing statutory taxes on vehicles or energy for employers who are also significant global entities keeping in mind that New Zealand is a bolt hole for the world’s wealthy and if they want economic security and political stability then they’ll have to pay for it but Johnnie’s already a citizen.
What I don’t want to see are system wide tax reforms that effect a large portion. On that bases I don’t want to see a change in the range or base of GST how ever acceptable or desirable that change maybe.
Ultimately we will have to wait till October 14 to find out which taxes changed are coming down the pipe.
Nationals tax cuts and Acts no tax on the first $18,000 will assist in generating how much tax take for downplaying debt, building infrastructure ( which they created as we all know) again?
Come October we must not allow the right bloc and their neoliberalism anywhere near the halls of power and we all know it.
Overall not a bad budget.
Pinging rich pricks hiding their wealth in Trusts with a higher tax rate….good start in escaping
the neoliberal straightjacket in my opinion.
Great to see investment in science and the IT sector, even if it is just gaming
Keep it up Chippy!
If commonsense prevails Sleek there will only be a handful of Nact supporters.
I liked the tax increase on Trustee income from 33% to 39%. This is income retained in trusts (not distributed to benefiaries at their marginal rates). Tax on trustee income is a flat tax (not teired like income of individuals). It’s a start. Dunno when it kicks in though?
This country is just drifting away to irrelevancy. Anyone with ambition will leave. China will probably start buying off our politicians for influence over the next few decades,
100%
I suggest Nicola Willis needs a Chemist Warehouse store locator. What a muppet
It’s a bit fence sitting but there will be no recession, miss Willis 😀
Even Luxon’s colleagues are calling Luxon Captain Cliche.
Her voice is irritating enough without the word salad of vapid nothingness. coalition of chaos, COL crisis, fewer taxes, wasteful spending blah blah talking points blahdy blah
Her voice is a screech and also what’s with the long slow droll questions in parliament, playing for time or is it she likes the sound of her red lipstick on a pig voice?
But as I said the other day, for ‘the most left-wing government since Savage’ to emerge (which Martyn says is imminent), virtually every policy since the mid-1980s would have to be reversed — and every public service closed down after 1940 would have to be restored (including all shuttered S.O.E’s).
Every single M.P. is opposed to that. None of the parties would ever allow anyone to propose such a thing.
If a party actually ran on that platform, they would probably win in a huge landslide — it would be virtually the same policies as all the moderate Labour and Tory governments (i.e. 1935-1984), and would draw in all the Bernie/Corbyn supporters and most of the Trump supporters.
Losers: rural people , your taxes will pay for free public transport for others in cities, while you have none. Also while your farms are planted in pine trees, your communities die and yeah you can also pay more for the vehicles you have to have so the city rich can buy a Tesla.
New Zealand DOES have an egregious infrastructure deficit in NZ!
But to be fair, there are some valid reasons for this:
Firstly we’re a young country so it’s not valid to compare us to countries that have 2,000 years old Roman roads. They got a head start!
Secondly our low population density means that the infrastructure we have is stretched really thin with too few people to pay for it.
Lastly, topology and geology. Unlike the US, Northern Europe and Aussie, this country is not exactly a billiard table! Worse, those hills are covered in unstable clay. It’s very expensive to build road and building foundations here.
The one aspect that definitely IS our fault is our planning and consenting process. It’s a national disgrace that we waste so much time and money on hui and karakia. That ‘consensus culture’ (= dicking around) costs us dearly. It needs fixing urgently.
The country already had world-class infrastructure by the 1930s, with a much smaller population. Much of it was later bulldozed or left to rust.
The topology is extremely challenging in many places, but there are also various large plains. You don’t need new construction on most of the hills — there are flat, wide-open spaces waiting to be built on (and lots of old buildings which need to have skyscrapers built above them).
I’m glad that benefits were increased before this year as they would probably be seen as an election year “bribe”. They needed to rise, as renting and mortgages have gone up quite extraordinarily as well as an increase in grocery prices, we did have high petrol prices for half a year, as well as a myriad of escalating prices in many other categories of consumer goods.
More middle class welfare but the prescription free is absolutely needed and cost more to collect than it brought in and was leaving a legacy of longterm health problems. The really poor wont benefit from the heating etc extension as they dont own houses and most landlords wont get it done because its a cost even with a subsidy. But the working middle with houses will jump on it.
I don’t know what planet Luxon is on, because this was a bare bones budget by any measure, obvious to all, except apparently Luxon. A very moderate budget, with relatively little new spending, tranched well into next year, which will have a low impact on reserve bank interest rate decisions.
Makes me wonder if Luxon’s speech was written in anticipation of much greater new spending in the budget, and that he never told his speech writer (Jerry?) to correct it, to match what was actually said, or that he just lacked understanding.
Luxon’s call for tax cuts for (himself snigger snigger) tax payers at this time, would reduce the govt’s ability to spend on repairing cyclone infrastructure damage, and would have been even more inflationary.
So if he’s saying Robertson’s budget will delay interest rates reducing, then I say thank god for Robertson, because Luxon’s alternative would be even worse for interest rates. Does he want the infrastructure rebuild to be half arsed, because penny pinching on infrastructure resilience in the first place, contributed to it getting so badly damaged.
FYI after our recent weather events, surely Luxon has to weed out the climate change deniers from his own party now. I mean, a cyclone, floods, and 4 tornadoes last month, must resonate even for 7 bungalow’s Luxon.
It was Labour, that got NZ through the pandemic, better financially and healthwise, than virtually any other comparable country. And some experts are now predicting, that the long predicted recession, will be shallow, or may not even happen after all. This should be good economic news for everyone including Luxon, shouldn’t it – or is it bad news in his world.
Aloha Luxon the living cliche’ and landlord to all and sundry, may look fine in the debating chamber, or polished in front of the boardroom, but he has all the charisma of an old jockstrap, and his public favorabilty is now tanking below Judith’s abysmal levels. So that instead of being the savior for National’s chances, he is now the anchor dragging them along, and he makes the likes of Cunliffe, look positively warm and cuddly by comparison.
Wow someone who truly understands and sees where NZ politics is at.
It is so refreshing to see a reasoned post unlike trolls like Bob the first and we all know it.
He may not have been liked by his colleagues but he had a super big brain and had Thatcher’s “The lady’s not for turning”. If he had the support of his colleagues and had won, NZ would not be in the state it is now. He was going to make some changes but dearie me, the other luvvies didnt want it because it put their jobs in jeopardy.
Much maligned old Cunliffe but just an early example of the political malaise we have seen from Labour ever since.
I thought Willis was actually above Luxon in terms of smarts but the stupid prescription stand is nonsensical. It’s like the addiction to spend chestnut. ‘Labour spend too much… I mean it’s wasteful spend but we would spend differently’. So which is it? Spending too much is too much spending full stop. What she won’t admit is they will cut spend to fund tax cuts. Apparently they won’t borrow, they will cut revenue so they sure as hell have to cut something. There aren’t enough consultants to shed to make that work. Or maybe it’s different when National borrow.
House wife’s and House Husband s are the winner s of this budget …it doesn’t mean they will vote for Labour though.
Most day care places are awful dumbing grounds, that kids hate. And who wants to catch a bus full if bullies that never turns up on time.
Anyone who opposes the removal of fees from prescriptions is an enemy of humanity and should be treated as such. No one should have go without because they cannot afford to pay for healthcare.
millsy, Bob’s a troll robot, please excuse it.
The National and ACT parties raising $5,000,000 to fight the election is quite disturbing. Politics in this country are starting to imitate what happens in the USA, with elections being decided on how much money the parties can raise to further their campaigns, rather than having limits on what they can spend on electioneering. Elections should be won or lost based on the policies they are promoting, with said policies contained in a manifesto, which is released to the general public to study, well before the election is due to be held. That way, voters will have no excuse for not knowing what each of the competing parties stand for and what they intend to do if elected.