TDB Domestic Political Predictions 2022

Media proxification is leading to a fascist kaleidoscope of climate crisis decay triggered by Covid, woke supremacy & QAnon Karen echo chambers.

2022 is a good time to start smoking, drinking and eating more butter fried bacon because fuck it, this year has the potential to really go bad and you may as well load up on distracting vices.

Here are the Domestic TDB political predictions 2022.

Issues

Omicron & Covid – Omicron will hospitalize more people (because it’s so much more contagious) but it will kill far less than Delta. The only threat now is overwhelming our Hospital infrastructure which the Government will have to enforce restrictions to guard against.

Don’t expect MIQ to end before June.

The Economic and Social damage however will not see any reprieve. The unvaccinated will radicalize because of economic pain. The economy will also radicalize with 10% interest rates.

The curve ball is the unvaccinated poorer nations who are the beginning points of Western Capitalism’s supply chains. There the virus can find a never ending source of humans to mutate into something far more lethal that can rebound on us.

That’s why a global vaccination program is so essential, no one is really safe until everyone is!

So we may beat Omicron but bets off whatever new variant mutates enough to sidestep our immunity and kicks off a new global tsunami of deaths. Remember, a virus has two paths towards mutation, the first is maximum transmissibility mutations and mutations that side step our immunity. Omicron looks like it has maxed out the transmissibility mutations, Covid could easily move to sidestepping our immunity mutations. Each of the variants before it came out of no where, the good news is that from new variant discovery to needles in arms is about 100 days now so there are off-ramps.

 

Political violence – if you think Jacinda is the anti-Christ, or the beginnings of Nazi Germany or raping Gaia, or is committing genocide, then any action is acceptable to stop that. The radicalization of the unvaccinated will reach fever pitch as the economic ramifications of being sacked from a job for refusing the vaccine starts to bite deeply.

My fear originally from the antivaxx radicalization we’ve seen was that political violence would be used against our politicians or academics or public health officials.

I think it’s worse now.

I think those antivaxxers will see everyone who has become vaccinated as the target.

Soft targets will be seen as legitimate.

Expect children being vaccinated to be the flashpoint.

Anything symbolic will become a target.

Parliament opening, first debating day, Jacinda’s wedding – all become targets to the lone wolf Qanon lunatic quietly brewing with malice and deformed hate.

The NZ Intelligence apparatus can’t fail us again.

Economy – So printing trillions to fuel Stock Market and housing speculation which has artificially created the lowest interest rates in 5000 years might have some inflationary issues?

Who would thunk it.

All we did after the Great Recession was kick the can down the street.

Well we’ve run out of street.

Fluctuations in your kiwisaver account is one thing. Paying $20 for a bottle of milk is another.

The hyper inflation we are starting down will force interest rates up and the gravity of those borrowed trillions will test how real the economic gains of the last decade have been.

I suspect they aren’t all that robust after all.

70% of homeowners need to readjust their mortgages this year – let’s see how much pain they will have to endure to just keep those overinflated roofs over their heads.

 

Crime – The full impact of the psychological whiplash caused by lockdown and Covid anxiety hasn’t hit yet. Expect domestic violence, street violence and self violence to explode.

In terms of organized crime, the 501 syndicates are still fighting the Head Hunters and the King Cobras for control over the Ports and Airport to ship in cheaper and purer meth from their South American Cartel links.

The 501s continue to infiltrate and stand over Black Power and Mongrel Mob chapters to gain dominance over the meth trade. The inevitability of this gang war erupting on the streets builds with no clear Police Intelligence direction of how they are intending to target the 501s.

National and ACT will make political mileage out of the increasing tensions.

 

Hate Speech Fiasco – Instead of focusing on the social media platforms using hate algorithms to brainwash individuals, the woke want to punish and lynch the racist sexist transphobes.

You can see them pointing to the Antivaxxers as evidence that speech should be criminalized, but of course it will coincide with woke dogma as well.

Misusing pronouns and blasphemy laws defined by the Police for a sentence that carry’s a 3 year prison term will scare the shit out of middle NZ and cause an enormous backlash.

Jacinda waded through the grief of the Christchurch atrocity and it convinced her this Hate Speech legislation is worth losing an election over.

Expect this to implode horribly. The only winner will be ACT.

 

Climate Change – In 1980, the time between billion dollar climate destruction events was 3 months.

It’s now 18 days.

There is a point where the next destructive weather event strikes before you can rebuild from the last one.

The rapid melting of the doomsday glacier in Antarctica is the final evidence that we can’t stop what’s coming and that radical adaptation will be the only option.

Expect to hear a lot more about the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation as its weakening will trigger irreversible environmental collapse.

There is no optimism on the climate front, just consequences now.

 

3 Waters – The 2 real issues posed by 3 Waters are can it stop foreign companies from bottling NZ water and can it ensure National and ACT don’t privatize the water once it’s nationalized…

Government seeks cross-party promise not to sell-off water assets, as Three Waters opponents organise for battle

The Government has sought cross-party support to safeguard the public’s water assets from privatisation, as opponents to the Three Waters reform organise themselves for battle.

Local Government Minister Nanaia Mahuta wrote to the leaders of each political party on Wednesday, as the Government released its first draft of the Three Waters reform legislation, asking for their support in entrenching in law a prohibition against the privatisation of the public’s drinking, waste, and storm water.

The attempt to gain some cross-party support within the reforms comes as the Government sustains heavy criticism for forging ahead with plans to create four new public water entities, that will assume control of all the water assets currently owned by local councils.

The Government has this week faced claims it quietly decided to mandate the reforms while still consulting with councils. Opponents to the contentious reforms descended on Parliament, for its last sitting day of the year.

…I am in favour of 3 Waters – I absolutely believe water should be nationalized so it can be protected and think Labour should seize the water assets via the Public Works Act.

I don’t see co-governance with Maori as a threat, I see it as another check and balance.

The only real question to 3 Waters is will National and ACT privatize water the millisecond they ever win power?

Based on ACTs far right agenda, you would have to say yes and based on Key selling 49% of our hydro power assets to create a $400million irrigation slush fund for corporate farmers, you would have to say yes as well.

3 Waters will be fought like this:

Labour + Environmentalists + Maori = public protection of water

National + ACT + Corporate Dairy = water privatization

Once Labour lock in this narrative framework, opposition to 3 Waters will dissolve against anti water privatization forces.

3 Waters will not be the great vote loser all the pundits are predicting – properly framed as a fight against water privatization, 3 Waters will propel Labour forward and take back some protest Green vote.

 

 

New Supermarket player – To offset the damage inflation will cause, taking up the Commerce Commissions recommendations of a 3rd player in the Supermarket duopoly will sustain financially pressured electorates with hope rather than ask for yet more endurance.

 

New history curriculum – This is set to start this year and while most will cover this sensibly, you just know some woke teacher will take it too far and the thing becomes a dumpster fire. Pakeha parents will expect unpleasant history to be taught, they won’t expect their children being made to feel guilty for past crimes. This will be argued out on Twitter which will just make things worse.

Royal Society Inquisition –

Royal Society Is Investigating Academics For Defending Science

The Free Speech Union can reveal that two academic fellows are being investigated by The Royal Society of New Zealand for being among those to put their name to a letter in defence of science which was published earlier this year in The Listener Magazine.

Ugh, hasn’t this gotten ugly fast.

To be fair to the 7 Professors, they have a technical point.

You can’t have a publicly funded curriculum that undermines the legitimacy of ‘western science’.

1 + 1 always equals 2, that’s not up for negotiation. We already have enough people who think crystals cure cancer, that microchips are in the vaccine and that Covid is being spread by 5G technology.

We can’t undermine the legitimacy of ‘Western Science’, this is a public education curriculum, you can’t set it against itself, the task is to turn out scientifically literate citizens for a high tech economy. Debating the ideas about cultural dominance of western scientific presumptions at Uni is one thing, sowing seeds of illegitimacy in high school students is completely another.

So the 7 Professors have a technical point, but the whole debate becomes immediately moot because this branch of inquiry wasn’t included in the next stage of the curriculum, so the 7 Professors claim a victory despite the other side not turning up.

Where I think they fail is in their condescending perspective that trashes 1000 years of indigenous knowledge by using an excruciatingly narrow definition  of what science actually means.

It’s like burning down the Sistine Chapel because proper art is painted on canvas.

I think the Professors are wrong about that, a people who navigated oceans by the stars, with complex astronomy, with vast natural science knowledge through a deep oral tradition, you can’t just arrogantly write that 1000 years of knowledge off with such snide parameters.

B-U-T we have academic freedom in NZ and as such it’s our academics who have the responsibility and freedom to articulate ideas that can be controversial.

I respect academic freedom enough to disagree vehemently with their conclusion but defend their right to say it.

The most disappointing part of this debate is that it’s made The Listener politically relevant for 30seconds.

Which is awful.

The Listener has all the self importance of a fart in an elevator. I stopped reading after Finlay MacDonald left.

The letters page of The Listener is the perfect place for these academics to duel it out. A white realm of Boomer privilege duking it out in the most low brow news media these ivory tower titans will collectively agree to stoop to.

What would be terrible right now is some type of woke purge to have these Professors expelled from Auckland University or from the Royal Society.

People can academically disagree and even be disagreeable without a lynch mob forming to burn heretics.

We should resist an academic purge because beyond its lynch mob immorality there is already a chunk of voters who fear the Woke will use new Hate Speech laws to settle scores.

Figuratively hanging Professors in the Uni Quad for crimes against dogma isn’t going to settle those nerves.

ACT will reap the political rewards from this.

Medicinal cannabis policy total failure – Labour have inadvertently set the medicinal cannabis industry up the way they have set the super market duopoly up. Labour have allowed the big pharma segment of the NZ market to write rules that exclude the smaller players which has led directly to the impasse we have now.

A framework that only the big pharma segment can pass through while fucking over medicinal cannabis patients as well as the wider industry.

Labour deserve nothing but contempt for their medicinal cannabis failure and if the Greens had any strategic brain they would make a legal market part of their agreement to form a government in 2023.

Unfortunately the Greens are fucking hopeless with anything that isn’t identity politics based so expect cannabis users to keep getting fucked over!

This really is the time for ACT to make a stand on cannabis legalization.

Kim Dotcom – Kim has been treated appallingly by NZ. Illegally spied on, his civil rights breached multiple times, Key’s collusion with the NSA to extend US jurisdiction into cyberspace and our own Judiciary’s fear of standing up to America have conspired to finally land Kim’s fate onto Kris Faa’foi’s desk.

For a Government struggling to find an issue that can create the symbolism of independence as the Pacific Cold War heats up, denying America’s request and allowing Kim to stay would be the perfect issue.

He doesn’t deserve to be dumped into a CIA torture camp.

 

Polarisation, Qanon lunacy & Woke lash – Thanks to social media algorithms of hate we are locked into echo chambers that are endlessly radicalizing.

Almost every single splinter group has become radicalized by the 90% double vaccination threshold.

The Vaccinated:

• Angry Double vaxxed Good Citizens –  They have done what they were asked, they have sacrificed and now they want their lives back. Being told they can’t because morons don’t want to be vaccinated is going down about as well as a cup of cold sick. You can’t get angry at these people and painting their frustration out as racist will hurt the Left at the election. The unfairness of continuing to lose your liberty under de facto house arrest because Liz Gunn thinks vaccinations are raping Gaia makes this group ripe for radicalisation.
• Small Business – These are people who for the first time in their lives feel economically vulnerable. They have haemorrhaged cash because of the lockdown and are on the verge of collapse. Economic hardship will see many blame Jacinda while seeing her only helping gangs. They are also ripe for radicalisation.
• The Woke – If you honestly think like the Maori Party that this is modern genocide, all violence is justified.
  

The Unvaccinated:

• Qanon Anti-vaxx lunatics – Will see the vaccination passports as a vast erosion of their civil rights and that measure will dangerously radicalize this fringe. If you honestly believe Jacinda is the same as Nazi Germany, any violence becomes permissible.
• Crystal Karens – These are the middle class new age conspiracy clique who will become culturally ostracised by the vaccine passports. If you believe like Liz Gunn does, that the vaccine is raping Gaia to the point that the Earth Mother Goddess is starting earthquakes then any violence is justified.
• Jesus is my vaccine fanatics – They will see Bishop Brian Tamaki’s prosecution as persecution and see end of days symbolism at every turn. The passport will be framed as the number of the beast. If Jacinda is the antiChrist then any violence is acceptable.

The speed of the radicalization has been driven by the desperation of Covid mixed with fear and rage.

This radicalisation has created an alternate reality on the right and we saw that in Wellington last year, but this alternate reality has also been a feature of the Left.

Post me too we had to believe anything anyone said on social media. We had to BELIEVE women. There was no longer objective truth, there was only subjective truth because due process is a heteronormative white cis male privilege and if someone questioned that they were a rapist.

The bewildering venom of the Trans debate and the demand that everyone else be forced to accept an identity subjectively defined by the individual and must never be challenged or you were canceled.

The demand for protection from micro aggressions and trigger free safe spaces.

The identity politics left is as radicalized and operating in their own dimension of reality as much as the feral right.

This deplatforming woke cancel culture is touched on in Bryce Edwards latest blog detailing the wokes attempt to cancel him!

TDB has been warning about this for sometime, that a culture backlash has been building against woke social engineering and that because Identity Politics and not class is the dominant philosophical schism within the Left, we are intellectually too weak to challenge the economic hegemony of neoliberalism and instead pick the low hanging fruit of identity.

This loss of class solidarity is causing the political spectrum to rapidly collapse.

I’m here to tell you that the radicalization in NZ politics is only going to get more extreme.

The woke will re-enter the debate this year empowered with the self belief that if they just criminalize the speech of the right we can all be safe.

Their zeal and cult like identity politics dogma will enrage the right and the debate will become extreme.

The solution of course is to penalize the social media networks themselves, not criminalize the toxic rantings of sad fuckwits.

Unfortunately there are no more adults left on the left to drive that as the solution.

In 1000 Years of Joys and Sorrows, Chinese artist and activist Ai Weiwei explores the dangers of cultural dogma…

Under the pressure to conform, everyone sank into an ideological swamp of “criticism” and “self-­criticism.” My father repeatedly wrote self-­critiques, and when controls on thought and expression rose to the level of threatening his very survival, he, like others, wrote an essay denouncing Wang Shiwei, the author of “Wild Lilies,” taking a public stand that went against his inner convictions.

Situations such as this occurred in Yan’an in the 1940s, occurred in China after 1949, and still occur in the present day. Ideological cleansing, I would note, exists not only under totalitarian regimes—­it is also present, in a different form, in liberal Western democracies. Under the influence of politically correct extremism, individual thought and expression are too often curbed and too often replaced by empty political slogans.

…and Edward Snowden warns…

From the time I began studying China’s quest to intermediate the information space of its domestic internet, as part of my classified work at the NSA, I’d experience an unpleasant spinal tingle whenever I came across a new report indicating that the United States government, was, piece by piece, building out a similar technological and political infrastructure, using similar the justifications of countering terrorism, misinformation, sedition, and subjective “social harms.” I don’t want to be misunderstood as saying “East” and “West” were, or are, the same; rather, it is my belief that market forces, democratic decline, and a toxic obsession with “national security”—a euphemism for state supremacy—are drawing the US and China to meet in the middle: a common extreme. A consensus-challenging internet is perceived by both governments as a threat to central authority, and the pervasive surveillance and speech restrictions they’ve begun to mutually embrace will produce an authoritarian center of gravity that over time will compress every aspect of individual and national political differences until little distance remains. 

If you thought getting people to take a vaccination was hard, wait till you tell them you will take away their free speech.

We ain’t seen nuthin yet.

Brace for impact.

 

Political Parties

Labour – The Waikeria Prison riot report will be damning. Kelvin’s position as Deputy must be questioned in its wake. Urgent Cabinet reshuffle is required and the best dynamic talent Labour has should be fast tracked into Cabinet. People will need more than being told to endure, they will want a vision and solution to the sharp rise in the cost of living.

National – Key will replace Goodfellow as President and start a candidate academy with Luxon to reshape the Party for 2023. Luxon will fail to win over the middle.

Greens – Any gains made will be lost in the Hate Speech war. Marama will continue to refuse to give Chloe the leadership despite her being the best bet for the future. First impact of the new rape laws will start becoming apparent.

ACT – Will have a plethora of culture war issues to attack. Will attract the angry urban male 18-49 market. Things will get nasty real quick as NZ Antifa  decide ACT voters are the same as fascists.

Maori Party – They had the most positive campaign in the 2020 election yet the leadership team have dragged the Party into racist ties, racist shoes, called on the SIS to form a Stasi and described the vaccine roll out as akin to the Squid Games while calling it genocide. John Tamihere is managing to do more real mahi outside Parliament than the co-leaders are doing inside it! You can really see the difference between what a JT co-led Party would have been and what it’s become. They risk becoming irrelevant.

NZ First – Talking of irrelevant. Winston’s claim the Government knew and hid that Harry Tam had infected the North with a sick prostitute was probably the last straw in terms of his relationship with Jacinda. Will try to attack Māori for blah blah blah but it’s all a bit desperate now. Could work the Free Speech issue but he would have to be clever about it. Could seize upon isolationism as the new zeitgeist.

 

Auckland Mayoralty

Goff is off to America and David Shearer won’t run, once Paula Bennett finds out, she will announce her candidacy in late January, early February. The only feasible Left wing candidate is Efeso Collins, but the Auckland Left have bewilderingly decided to back the glass jawed pronoun salad that is Richard Hill.

Richard Hill is a woke fart in a unisex elevator who is as electable as a vegan sex toy at a meatlovers BBQ festival. Paula Bennett will destroy him and he will come third to Efeso Collins who should run a rogue candidacy. Bennett will be smart if she offers Efeso Deputy as a final smack in the face to the Auckland Left for disrespecting him so badly!

Culture

Today FM – Instead of competing for the redneck spittle faction of the ZB audience, Mediaworks intends to just recreate ZB. Expect wall to wall Luxon as Today FM rebirths as ZB for women. This station will have an immediate impact in clawing back National voters in the urban centers. Think Radio Live hosted by Paula Bennett. Expect it to rip into ZBs bloated ratings.

The Platform – Can Sean Plunkett cobble together a new media Death Star to attack woke culture wars without it descending into a KKK rally run for AntiVaxxer Qanon enthusiasts? Let’s find out! Launching at the same time as Today FM.

The Working Group – The greatest and bestest weekly political podcast not funded by NZ on Air returns 7.30pm Monday January 10th. We had an insanely positive response to our 3 episode season last year and while the productivity screamed funded by NZ on Air, our bank accounts didn’t, despite this we are coming back because you the people deserve more than the terrible political podcasts currently being offered to you. Ep 1 will be a Economy 2022 special.

TVNZ/RNZ merger – Former National Party Minister & Westpac Boss, Simon Power has stepped into TVNZ to navigate the new political minefield of running TVNZ/RNZ. Tracy Martin is steering this so it should be amazing, the only question will be how Kris Faafoi manages to sink it accidentally, if he’s still the Broadcasting Minister.

 

NZ on Air funded woke ‘journalism’ – The Right have attempted to paint th Public Interest Journalism Fund up as Labour Party stooges pretending to be journalists writing news to appease Comrade Jacinda which is disgraceful bullshit, but equally the corporate mainstream media alongside NZ on Air can’t pretend this is actual journalism either!

Paying media to cover local journalism is what the fucking media should be doing in the first place and the diversity requirements are just woke box ticking for public funding requirements.

This is not journalism, it’s social engineering for agreed woke Wellington middle class virtue signals.

By playing to middle class virtue signals, the Government avoid the heavy lifting to rebuild the shattered free market monstrosity they have now!

What the Government should be doing is reforming the market by hitting Facebook and Google up for a Journalism tax which is funded to accredited media for them to decide the journalistic focus, not targeted niche woke knee jerks or local journalism which should be their existing obligation.

Re-create the market properly by taxing Facebook and Google for journalism that the big players use while obligating public service broadcasters to meet the needs of diversity.

Freed of actually having to reform the media market, NZ on Air isn’t funding journalism, it’s funding woke social engineering.

The echo chamber of elite opinion that has Newsroom sharing content with RNZ, sharing content with the Spin-off, sharing content with Stuff, sharing content with Newshub – the same echo chamber repeating the same capitalist values.

Facebook dirty deal – What is being proposed is the worst outcome for NZ journalism.

Here is what SHOULD happen.

Google & Facebook should face a separate media tax that is ringfenced and handed directly to NZ on Air.

NZ on Air in turn hands that money out to any journalist to specifically do investigative journalism.

That journalist’s work gains a ‘flag’ and NZ on Air runs a ‘read between the flags the way you swim between the flags’ campaign to help NZers distinguish what is journalism and what is social media disinformation.

This way you set the bench mark for actual journalism while countering misinformation while expanding investigative journalism.

We set this media tax on Google and Facebook to fund real journalism to counter their platforms misinformation.

That is what we SHOULD be doing.

What we are instead doing is allowing desperate media owners to gain the algorithms of Facebook to pimp out extreme headlines to drive more clicks and royalty revenue!

This won’t save good journalism, it will speed the demise of it!

Allowing mainstream media to gain royalties from hate algorithms is a recipe for disaster.

Middle class work culture – Will we all go back to working in an office? I don’t think so. For many comfortable middle class people, cutting the commute and working from home has been a revelation of happiness, and with many still frightened of the outside world through lockdown conditioning, expect far more shut in’s culturally. Companies will ask why they are spending so much money on office space. Expect a real change in the work culture space.

Conclusion: 

Look at the outrageous profits the NZ banks are bleeding us dry with….

…once upon a time when the Left were more focused on class and economics, we would have had a plethora of responses to this madness.

Sadly the entire movement is infected by woke identify politics with no intellectual muscle beyond micro aggression policing and cancelling people on Twitter.

Rather than focus on jobs, houses and poverty (because they are hard) we get middle class virtue signals.

That bloody bike bridge!

What were they thinking?

Thanks to middle class identity politics, the Left have spent more energy since 2016 on fighting heteronormative white cis male patriarchy than capitalism.

This Government is failing in every indicator except keeping us safe from Covid but that’s not enough.

What is required are some big ideas with immediate pay off that enables the Government to bypass the public service and their fiefdoms.

Keeping Covid out isn’t enough. Those 200000 kids in poverty, those 24000 on emergency housing wait lists and the generations locked out of home ownership deserve better.

We need to tax the corporations benefiting from climate change pollution to fund the public infrastructure to subsidize the damage their profit driven greed is causing.

We can’t change and adapt without the cash to resource it and the political will to drive it.

We need to be kinder to individuals and crueller to corporations.

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