Tamaki Makaurau By-election Week 3

We enter week 3 of the Tamaki Makaurau By-election and there is now a large divergence in the campaigns.

Labour is everywhere. Peeni is fronting every media opportunity he has, he is on the street and Labour are advertising widely. They have zeroed in on ‘2 Māori for one’ MMP math by arguing voters get Peeni AND they will bring a Māori women off the Labour list as well.

This MMP math argument is very popular in the Māori electorates and has genuine currency.

The Māori Party on the other hand have had a completely different strategy for Oriini Kaipara, she is only appearing on Social media. It is a specific tactic by the Māori Party to focus on their online strength. It’s a risky strategy because voters haven’t really seen Oriini since she won the candidacy.

Compounding the Māori Party problems seems to be some mistake made when getting people to enrol on the Māori roll where some voters details weren’t updated. If this is a flaw with the system or poor guidance offered by MP when people were enrolling isn’t clear, but it does weaken their online only campaign.

What this all means is that the debates are more important than ever.

The only declared debate at this stage is the one with Waatea on the 20th August.

Voters in Tamaki Makaurau will be sending a clear message this by-election: if Labour wins they will be saying they are demanding Māori Party work with Labour, if Māori Party wins, a new generation of voters will be demanding Labour works with them instead.

This by-election will have ramifications of the 2026 election.

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