Tamaki Makaurau by-election bombshell result
What an emphatic victory – and vindication – for Te Pati Maori and what a humiliating thrashing for Labour. The results at the end of last night (06/09/2025) for the Tamaki Makaurau electorate by-election confirmed as final, but not yet officially declared, give Oriini Kaipara a thumping 2,938 majority over Peeni Henare. Never would I have thought Te Pati Maori could go from barely winning in 2023 to such a resounding victory two years later with a newby candidate to fill the vacancy left by the well-respected Takutai Tarsh Kemp.
The near 3,000 majority cannot convey the relative size that majority represents given the low turnout (see below for that discussion). Kaipara got twice as many votes as Henare. That shocks me, I thought it would be a tight race, but that Kaipara should edge him out based on two factors: the zeitgeist and winds of history right now at least are with Te Pati Maori and so they are being defaulted to rather than Labour by Maori voters generally, and the 3,000 odd Green votes breaking to TPM. I didn’t see it would be a bulldozing not an edging. Nothing to me suggested this result. I was wondering how TPM strategy of social media first would pan out and was keeping an open mind, but never would I guess the magnitude of what happened. The voters must have preferred the logic of having both in the House and they have rationally and very ruthlessly applied it. I think that is the overwhelming element here.
I will explain why it looked a closer race from the outside. From the debates and the Q+A interviews Kaipara just didn’t have any detail, at all, none. Great presentation skills as one would expect of a news reader, but no firm handle on anything. Given latitude for expansive answers on Q+A she painted a kupu collage of slogans and platitudes like Kamala Harris used to do with her word salads. Was she not bothering to appeal to serious voters?
Was she after a youth vote or a radical non-voter vote? Was she instructed to be vague? She just wasn’t good on policy. I would love to have known what political motivations she had before entering politics two months ago – but I don’t think anyone’s asked her. I haven’t heard a reason – a compelling reason – from her as to why she wants to be an MP. I’ve heard lots of uncompelling reasons lost in a fog of fluffy feminist rhetoric. Her stock response to any question is to say she is a mama. It explains all. Mama. Mama. That’s the go to. Mama. I’m a woman. As a wahine. As a woman. How many times did she say it and did we hear it? Too many. Mama’s not a qualification to govern anymore than dada is, dada, dada. How unserious to vote for this superficial nonsense – and yet…
And yet, we all saw the dramatic weight loss didn’t we. Didn’t we!? No one said anything publicly, of course, but it was there every time she stood in front of her own hoardings. We could see the difference instantly – the woman in front of us talking about feeding the kids is 10kg’s thinner than the already slim woman on the billboard. Hollowed out, haggard. But no one says anything. The Emperor’s new crash diet? Is she dying? Is she? Are we not allowed to ask, is it private? They voted for a husk of a woman, a waif, visibly deteriorated from her election pictures which had only been taken a few weeks prior. We all hope she recovers, because she looks frail. And yet…
And yet Peeni Henare was bulldozed off the planet last night. She just absolutely wiped the floor with him, but in essence the voters said: you bore our fucking tits off. Nice guy, but you bore our fucking tits off. Not sure what the whakatauki is for that. Nice guy, but a low energy vibe. I noticed Willie Jackson looked concerned and not quite his usual frisky, cheeky self on the Herald’s morning political panel on Friday (in Auckland) and wondered if he was nervous about how things were on the street. Turns out he was indeed on the correct frequency.
Looking through the polling station data there are hardly any that Henare carried. Auckland University and AUT advance voting had Kaipara beating Henare nearly 3:1 so the students were clearly not impressed with Labour. Labour will be asking themselves if they pulled their punches. Maybe they should have just punched them right in the face to start with and don’t let up – no Mr Nice Guy. Problem was the candidate was Mr Nice Guy!
Henare will lick his wounds, coddled only in the knowledge that the size of his loss was commensurate with how much of a nice guy he is and he is one hell of a nice guy to have lost by that much.
Kaipara will be in for a very steep learning curve and she said as much in her victory speech. Presentation being such an important part of politics she may go far, especially if she can demonstrate some policy chops – or any sort of chops – by the general election next year.
Based on this astonishing result the chances of a clean sweep of the seven Maori seats looks likely – how can Te Tai Rawhiti resist the tide? TPM will be ordering new millinery to celebrate, but what they have gained is not just an excuse for more headwear but a strong bar to either lever Labour or bludgeon them. Some sort of electoral arrangement – seemingly distant or impossible – is now a step closer.
Turnout of 9,377 on an enrolled voter total of 43,796 is 21.4%.
I first thought I had never seen a by-election turnout number this low – I could not recall any result below 10,000 votes – but that’s only because I have a poor memory as it turns out. The Electoral Commission’s election results page says otherwise as mentioned below. The actual percentage turnout though is the lowest, surely, at less than a quarter of the electorate casting a vote. I’m not going to trawl all the way back last century, but in my lifetime this must be the worst turnout ever. My sense – being a politics graduate who studied a lot of elections and electoral systems – is that this is a New Zealand record. So, congratulations, Tamaki Makaurau, you all made history last night simply by collectively not being arsed.
The previous two Maori electorate by-elections were connected to the Maori Party. Tariana Turia caused a by-election in her western Maori electorate of Te Tai Hauauru in July 2004 where the turnout was 7,861 (28%). The Tai Tokerau by-election result where Hone Harawira resigned from the Maori Party and then formed the Mana Party in June 2011 was 12,339 – 41% turnout. Dame Tariana had no real competition however as the Labour Party decided not to contest it so that sub-10,000 figure needs to be seen in this light – and even then the percentage was still over a quarter!
Why the lowest turnout in history?
In some ways it is totally counter-intuitive to think it would be low – let alone the lowest. Looking at it on paper one would think that where the two main parties to an electorate at the general election contest the by-election it will drive engagement and more so when those previous candidates were only 42 votes apart. Both parties have been actively working on the ground by all reports, even if the campaign debates didn’t start happening until the last fortnight. There has been nothing else on the political radar to distract from the by-election, the opportunities in the media have been there – at least Henare was using his free shots in the House at Question Time to generate some while Kaipara seemed like she was deliberately keeping a low profile after the initial buzz of her nomination. It was a slow burn and as it transpired no flames except for TPM’s Takuta Ferris hating on Labour’s immigrant Auckland membership with three days to go.
It is difficult to explain the lowest turnout ever, but I will attempt it.
The Editor of The Daily Blog and I had discussed the situation yesterday before polling closed and made some forecasts, one that we did agree on is the turnout would be a little over 10,000, but the weather was so bad it might drag it down to 10k or maybe just under. It is one thing to speculate on it, but it is shocking to see a figure even further south than that. The other reason is the relatively young population compared to other electorates that will always skew to a lower turnout. But goddamn, really? Astoundingly Labour’s machine couldn’t get the punters to the polls despite the massive resources they have as an operation. Something else is at play here for this scale of disengagement from the voting process.
The winter and the crappy wet weather on the day alone doesn’t account for it because we can clearly see turnout well above that in the two previous Maori electorate by-elections where there was no effective opposition candidate to the incumbent. In part, yes, this does mean political martyrdom drives turnout in Maori electorates. Did the punters – most of them younger – not connect with either Kaipara or Henare? Did the 78.6% who didn’t vote think there was no material difference between the leading candidates? Was the political love-in between the two candidates and lack of friction demotivating – either one is fine, and so someone else can perform the ritual of choosing them. I suspect that was the case, but it is much more troubling for Labour and what that might indicate about how Aucklanders regard them – the phone is still off the hook.
And finally, Hannah Tamaki, the mad old girl be cray, cray-cray, but she knows when to thrust her face into the arse of free publicity to get noticed. It was fair to comment on Kaipara’s appearance and so in the spirit of fairness and consistency it’s fair to say that for someone obsessed with motorbikes she looks increasingly like she gets around on a broom. She looks like she’s gone from saying prayers to casting spells, and her talk of demonic forces is a defensive sort of projection. Following in the trajectory of her self-inflicted train wreck of an interview with Mr Bradbury on his show The Bradbury Group (see video below) got 146 votes out of the 9,377 total votes cast, or 1.6%. There were more of those leathered-up half-witted goons from hubby’s motorbike gang blocking the motorway than actually voted for her. It’s reassuringly low numbers. The Tamaki Temu cult and their political clown car Vision NZ – or more accurately Vicious NZ – is in need of a miracle. And please note in the video the revelation that she badgered her husband into forming the gang – that’s its manly origin story: my missus nagged me into forming this gang. Inspiring! Blessed be the fruit.
Never have I been so happy to be wrong. This is indeed a stunning result. I will openly admit i had mistakenly picked Peeni Henare to win, mainly on the basis that the Labour Party threw everything they had including the kitchen sink to ensure Peeni Henare’s victory.
I don’t know about the kitchen sink, but multiculturalism – definitely
This is a lesson to Labour. They need to have some actual policies, and they should be pro-human policies rather than slightly less bad than National. Nor will ‘we’re slightly less racist against Maori than National’ do the job.
Yeah!!! This is why he lost. Watch out for general election if the dumb fuckers carry on just swinging their dicks in the breeze like they have been doing under Chippy since their monumental loss at the last election.
The message is that Maori are not going away .The colonist parties need to sit up and take note .The down side is the colonists will now move heavan and earth to remove the Maori seats asap .
If the Maori seats are abolished, Maori do not become irrelevant. Colonialism becomes irrelevant.
The people of Tamaki Makaurau have lost confidence in the colonialist system of government. That is why 80% of those registered to vote chose not to vote.
Those who did vote wanted a radical alternative to the National/Labour duopoly. That is why two thirds of them voted for Te Pati Maori.
Nothing stunning. No bombshell.
What comes next?
This result shows that having a powerful election machine is not enough to win elections anymore.
Voters voted for Te Pati Maori because of their policies.
Tim Selwyn’ criticisms of Oriini on the capaign trail tell me one thing. Oriini Kaipara is not a politician.
And people saw that.
I reject Tim Selwyn’s criticisms of Oriini Kaipa, The worth of an MP is not judged by how well they did on the campaign trail as a huckster for votes, but how they perform in parliament.
I celebrate Oriini Kaipara’s win, I expect great things of her in parliament.
Tēnā koe e hoa.
well said Pat
What is the worth of an MP? As you would know Pat there have been many members elected to the British parliament who never intended or were not allowed to take up their seats. Those members are perhaps the only ones who have not in some way disappointed the hopes of their constituents.
The real question in the minds of the public is not about the worth of individual members of parliament, but about the worth of parliament itself. Oriini Kaipara, by her actions in parliament, may assuage or confirm that doubt. She is most unlikely to remove it entirely.
I am really looking forward to Oriini Kaipara’s maiden speech in parliament.
Efeso Collins maiden speech in parliament moves me to tears every time I watch it.
I expect Oriini’s maiden speech to be as great.
In his maiden speech Efeso Collins touched on many of the things that are close to Maori. The theft and denigration of Samoan language and culture in common with the theft and denigration of Maori language and culture by the colonial system, especially the education system.
Efeso Collins began his maiden speech with a greeting in Maori and spent at least half of his speech speaking in his native Samoan, which he admitted struggling with, due to the colonial education system that robbed him of his ability to speak to in Samoan to his wider family and community. And which he had to relearn.
Efeso Collins closed out his speech with further words in Maori.
The public gallery was packed out by members of Samoan community who sang a waiata that rang through the house.
I expect Oriini Kaipara’s maiden speech to be as memorable and inspirational, an event and celebration of Maori culture and history as Efeso Collin’s maiden speech was a inspirational and memorable celebration of Samoan culture in this country.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eRy3y9DqyGM
The Labour, Te Pati Maori, Green party coalition government is back on the agenda.
The Labour Party and their pet poodle The standard, can forget about their dark fantasy of making an accomodation with New Zealand First to keep Te Pati Maori and the Greens out of government.
https://thestandard.org.nz/so-new-zealand-first-then/
My hope is that The Daily Blog can livestream Oriini Kaipara’s maiden speech in parliament.
I do wish your comparison is right and could come true but it feels like wishful thinking in dreamland. Effeso was beyond exceptional and no one in parliament comes near him. A great loss and no amount of wanting her to measure up to him can make it happen. Unfortunately.
Te Pati Māori has a lock on the Māori electorates for at least a decade. In 2026, they will win all seven.
It is likely Te Pati Maori will get at least 3% in the general election, perhaps as much as 5%. It means a likely overhang with between 121 to 124 seats in Parliament. That obviously favours the Left bloc of Labour/Greens/Te Pati Māori.
I think the next election will be close. There is likely to be some economic uplift which will help the coalition.
My major concern is that in these times too many big issues are in permanent contest. There is not enough consensus on the big multidecade issues. This has become a much bigger problem in the last 10 years.
From 1996 to 2017, there was significantly more consensus. Not so much in the last 3 terms of parliament, with a much greater tendency to ascribe bad motives to the other side.
So long as that tendency persists, New Zealand will not do so well. Australia will continue appeal to many more New Zealanders, right across the socio/economic/ethnic spectrum.
TPM are the only serious party in parliament with any pro-human policies. Why waste a vote on the vacuous Green weirdos? Or the completely unprincipled neolibs of Labour?
27% voter turnout I heard. Can’t really build a commentary around that other than to suggest lack of interest in the byelection so close to the big event.
The Maori show they do not want Labour and in 2026 Pakeha will show they don’t want them either.
This will be the last National coalition for many years. Not one person of any color will want National, ACT nor NZ First, such is the damage and economic destruction they have imposed on New Zealand. New Zealand is now a land of immigrants as record numbers of kiwis have left to live in Australia where wages are high, the weather great and their government are pro their citizens.
Things are not all beer and skittles in Australia especially if you rent or lose your job.As most NZ citizens are children of migrants then them leaving is no great surprise . Labour is a lost cause and while I cannot stand Winston especially his race baiting he will grow .
nothing worse than limp cucumber on stale bread. Thankfully our youth are a lot more maori and polynesian adjacent than their dim-witted parents.
Sorry, Pat, but she comes across as a light weight – in all senses. Everything she has said and in particular the breezy, dreamy, glib, way she says it tells me she has no idea how to achieve any of it. What activism etc has she been involved in? – all I know is she reads autocue. Will be very happy to be proven wrong and as a politician her presentational ability means she is already half way there. The voters clearly adore her, and the two university polling booths is evidence of strong youth support probably replicated across the electorate.
Voter expectation is of rhetoric because they appreciate they have little power in this parliament, so I don’t think they expect solid policy the way I would, or the commenters here would. Flowery, wooly speeches and responses are in these circumstances acceptable and even endearing to the electorate obviously. There are Belfast constituencies won by Sein Fein where their elected members boycott Westminster and never take up their seats, so in a colonial context this is not an unusual stance. However… if it becomes likely your decolonialist party will be part of the next government the expectations might change from aspirational slogans to what will you do?
Is it right to equate the two candidates as relative support for their respective parties? Yes, yes it is. But the actual vote will be split to get an overhang, people will be hip to that scenario. So there will continue to arise a disconnect between the opinion polling and how those voters will end up casting their party vote.
27% turnout? I’m going off the Electoral Commission and what they posted up as final to get 21.4%, but even 27% would still be the lowest I can think of.
“There are Belfast constituencies won by Sein Fein where their elected members boycott Westminster and never take up their seats, so in a colonial context this is not an unusual stance. However… if it becomes likely your decolonialist party will be part of the next government the expectations might change from aspirational slogans to what will you do?”
This is the nub of the problem, and the most realistic answer is that Te Pati Maori could go the way of its previous iteration, the Maori Party.
This is a fundamental political question which should not be overshadowed by personal judgements on Oriini Kaipara or any other individual politician.
Pat’s enthusiasm for Oriini appears premature. Tim’s criticism likewise. In any case, what is to be gained by such trenchant attacks? “If thou doest well, shalt thou not be accepted? and if thou doest not well, sin lieth at the door”. It may be better to reserve our judgement for now at least.
Firstly I dont agree with many of the comments, only 27% of eligible voters voted,why because them voting isn’t going to change anything yet and many are struggling with the costs of living. As Peeni is already in some saw this as an opportunity to get another Maori candidate in parliament. I said this before and will say it again TePati Maori will win all the Maori seats accept Ikaroa Rawhiti,Cushla will retain her seat. However the majority of Maori voters will give Labour their party vote hoping they can work together for the greater good, and that includes the Greens. Labour need to focus on the party vote and they need some good policy to get those voters who believed in the bullshit slogans and promises that were never gonna be delivered not with the current weak PM we have. National will be asking for a mandate to privatize much of our public sector now I doubt many NZers will be able to stomach this. But Labour needs to reverse a lot of the damage done and this won’t be easy.
My neighbours who are Maori also have English, French, German, Indian and Chinese ancestry. No doubt others as well. They acknowledge and respect their parents, grandparents and great-grandparents who came from among other peoples and other cultures. Like all Maori communities, ours is inclusive because it has to be. But it is Maori. Maoritanga is the centripetal force which keeps the hapu and hapori together. It is the glue which cements together those whose whanau names may be English, French, Indian or Maori. The marae and the kura are welcoming and inclusive, but they are monocultural (I hesitate to use that word because of its connotations, but there you go). If you tried to make either of those institutions “multicultural” you would get short shrift. People would be perplexed. They would probably shake their heads and walk away.
I believe that this is what happened when Labour tried to introduce the idea of multiculturalism into the Tamaki Makaurau by-election. It was seen as intrusive rather than inclusive. Takuta Ferris would not have been the only one to react in the way that he did. The Maori seats in parliament are Maori seats. They are not multicultural seats. Trying to make them multicultural is naturally perceived as a threat to their essential character.
To put it simply, Labour’s multicultural intervention was a mistake which betrayed a surprising and woeful lack of political nous.
There is a bigger aspect to this. Maoritanga is not just the force that holds Maori hapu and hapori together. It is all that there is to hold Aotearoa as a whole together. Therefore Maoritanga can do what multiculturalism can not. It is the only possible basis of kotahitanga amongst our peoples as a whole, just as it is on the marae and in the kura. I would not expect Labour to agree with me on that. Not now. It is too soon for that. But the time will come when they will see what should be obvious to them already.