Roy Morgan Poll: National/ACT stall – Maori Party continue to be Queenmaker & Roe Vs Wade triggers

ByMartyn Bradbury

Latest Roy Morgan Poll is out and it is a fascinating insight to the confused political spectrum we now inhabit.

National: 39%

Labour: 33.5%

Green: 10%

ACT: 9.5%

Māori Party: 1.5%

Other: 6.5%

Wouldn’t answer: 5%

National and ACT dip while Labour lifts. Beyond the anger and grumpiness of the moment is the dawning realisation that Luxon actually doesn’t seem to have a clue and voters need solutions.

David Seymour’s extraordinary attack on National today shows he’s ready to fight for the right and people do not seem to appreciate the point TDB has been making since he won big on election night 2020, ACT represents a radically right wing ideologically hard manifesto and Seymour every skill set required to get it all past a lazy Chris Luxon.

The Quick Yellow Fox will jump over the Lazy Blue Log.

National will continue to slump as ACT cannibalises Luxon’s vote because the economic conditions about to be faced provoke a radicalism ACT can harness which National can’t.

I’ve argued that the Left’s complacency over Roe Vs Wade is misplaced. Pundits claim  Luxon’s own position on Abortion won’t have ramifications politically, but I’ve countered that the wasted sub 5% vote, if coalesced around anti-abortion, has the potential of breaching the 5% threshold meaning National and ACT would need to negotiate with them ion they wanted power.

Interesting to also note that the % of those who refused to answer has almost doubled to 5%. That suggests voters don’t want their preferences followed which plays into the conspiracy zeitgeist amongst the social media Qanon swamp.

The fight will be between a Labour/Green/Māori Party Government or National/ACT Government, either way it will generate a radical policy shift to the benign environment MMP has previously given us.

The curve ball are if the fringes can join together and gain a 5% threshold foothold.

If such a terrible mutation of NZ Democracy occurred and the fringe madness of Qanon pro-life lunacy enters the NZ Parliament, Labour and National would be forced to form a Government to stop them from having any influence on politics.

It would be that level of a crisis of confidence in NZ politics of these political circus freaks cross the 5% threshold.

Interesting to note that the Left are haemorrhaging male vote to the Right and confidence has plummeted from a year ago…

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating fell by 2.5pts in June to 87.5. The indicator is now down a massive 36.5pts from a year ago in June 2021.

In June only 39% (down 1% point) of electors said New Zealand was ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 51.5% (up 1.5% points) who said New Zealand was ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

The latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for New Zealand fell by 1.8pts to 80.5 and is now just below the latest Consumer Confidence figure in Australia of 83.7 on June 27 – July 3, 2022.

…2023 will be won at the fringes and it will result in a Government loathed by whichever side loses and generates policy that is fiercely resisted.

I think the looming economic recession will be such a crisis, Jacinda will need to step up the way she did during Covid, and she has an amazing capacity to do that.

The Left need to focus on a unified 100 day plan, the way ACT have stolen, because it is the sense of genie transformative change voters are hungering for while they suffer.

Here’s what a Labour/Green/Maori Party Government should be committed to passing in the first 100 days of the 2023 election…

1: Feed every kid in NZ a free nutritious and healthy breakfast and lunch at every school using local product and school gardens with parents paid to come in and help. The slow incrementalism touted by favourite public sector for dragger apologist Max Rashbrooke isn’t good enough because the lower middle classes are feeling the same pinch thanks to mortgage rises and universal school lunches and breakfasts would help them as well. 

2: 50 000 State Homes for life built using the best environmental and social architecture standards using the public works act to seize land and immediately start building satellite towns using upgraded public transport hubs plus Renter Rights – (rent freezes, end accomodation payments, long term tenancy arrangements) 

3: Free public transport plus vast infrastructure upgrade for climate crisis.

4: 30% stake holder in a new Government backed supermarket operation run to provide lower food prices for kiwism better prices for supplies and better conditions for workers.

5: GST off fresh fruit and vegetables and essentials like tampons, toilet paper, condoms, oral health plus a sugar tax.

6: Free Dental services for everyone through public health.

7: Fair Pay Agreements that allow unionisation and real collective bargaining power for workers outside the tiny public service clique they currently cover.

8: Taxation focused on corporations and banks  like financial transaction taxand first $20 000.

9: Offer nurses, teachers and Drs free education and living allowances in return for bonded time in our health and eduction systems. 

10: Properly funded public broadcasting with TVNZ advert free and merged with RNZ alongside properly funded journalism through NZ on Air with more money for the Arts and Science. If you can’t have good public journalism, the right wing media will destroy these other 9 advances. 

…Kiwis have to see a progressive Government ACTUALLY doing shit in the first 100 days or they won’t believe any change is coming and when you consider the economic maelstrom we are entering, the most vulnerable amongst us will be screaming for real change.

If we on the Left don’t offer voters real solutions to their material problems and instead prefer to micro aggression police the latest middle class virtue signals of hate speech, militant pronoun demands and screaming everyone is racist, we are fucked politically in 2023.

 

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24 Comments

  1. I wonder who that poor old lady who just died in her car voted for?

    1. No warm, dry, house for her.

      Meanwhile a ram raid in the North Shore with 12yo driver. Maybe start looking after who actually lives in NZ first, before trying to add in more people to compete for housing, health, crime, justice and education.

      “Almost 200,000 people have now applied to become residents under the fast-track visa, and one in four has been approved.
      By the end of this year, the country will have more new residents than any other year on record.”
      https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2022/05/almost-200-000-people-apply-for-new-fast-track-residency-visa.html

  2. Can’t fault that 10 point plan….what a fantastic country N.Z would become again…..
    Don’t overthink it….paralysis through over analysis is not an option….LET’S DO THIS!!!

  3. National should be worried because they’ve got it made. The economy is poor, serious crime rampant, housing as wrecked as ever, the health system failing big time and yet they’re down, Labour up.

    The Greens get 10% based on defections from Labour and … nothing I can think of.

    ACT down a touch but largely stable.

    The Maori Party need to take a leaf out of Willie’s book, do your dark deeds behind several closed doors, don’t advertise them to the world! But thanks anyway!

    But “other” is up, aka NZF, as are the undecided/disinterested/paranoid.

    Nationals problems run deeper than Luxon. No one there looks like they have a personality or can be taken seriously. National have a track record of talking it up and once elected, cutting back. But that said, not so bad as they are well out in front, but not comfortably so!

    Jacinda won’t be resigning just yet. But even odds says she will,, well before election day if that damned poll gap remains stubbornly wide!

  4. Seymore’s “got this’ on todays.performance.
    He has put the ACT stake in the ground and has thrown down the gauntlet not only to Luxon but also to the regular kiwi battlers who used to be the core base supprt of Labour telling them ” I’m your man, your dreams are my dreams, your pain is my pain”
    Labour in their desire to be the “most diverse party” filled up with minorities and abandonded their core constituency “the working man” at a cost they will realise at the next election.
    Watch Seymores support grow poll by poll taking from both National and Labour as the ONLY leader presenting a decisive plan for future action.
    Luxon’s reaction.will be telling, is he a man of substance who will comfirm a position as a consequence, or will he just driff past it without declaring anything?
    I suspect the latter.

  5. The media are also rooting for the right and have been since Brash played race card. Tory times herald again full of raving hate labour right wing commentators. They havent made a right prediction yet. They need to be put out to pasture and bring in younger educated journalists who do their homework. Same with the tory talk ZB and am show. If NATZACT cant win with all that free natz political party publicity then they are dog tucker. Gaffer Luxon is a loser who will be replaced if he keeps saying foolish comments. He and Willis need to step up – Willis is no financial exponent.

  6. Love your ideas for the first 100 days – way too sensible / obvious / practicle to ever actually happen.

  7. Oh my God, even Seymour has a 100 day plan ahead of an election, BUT poor LINO had no idea they should have one just in case they won a 50/50 coin toss to see if they’d be the next Govt OR when going for relection, just in case they got in again. How difficult can it be?
    I know I have way too high expectations of LINO. They are after all just politicians, who do NOTHING else in this world. My bad.

    1. Not only did National not have a plan in case they”lost the coin toss” they still cant accept they lost – can they Kevin.

      1. I’ve no idea what NACT thought.
        I was commenting on Martyns regular comment about how reasonable it was for LINO to not had a 100 day plan ‘in hand’.

    1. But if Natz and ACT get elected we are just fucked, quicker.

      Since practically all the major parties have the same fucked up policies that don’t work no matter what government is in power, is the issue that, the advisors to parliament are one trick neoliberal, globalist, low wage economy ponies, who give the same policy advice that fails to work again and again?

    2. The question that really bothers me is does Labour endorse this idea of “separate development” for Maori.
      The answer appears that they do. Will there be separate education,health and justice systems?
      Will a Maori justice system mean we no longer have one law for all?
      Hoe will we fund all this?

  9. Me thinks you do complain too much. If the abortion highlight and Jacinda on the front page with her overseas wins does not give Labour a voting hit then they are yesterday’s news.
    To me a lot of voters are over the show pony leaders and are looking for a proven track record of achievement .Luxon has this does Jacinda.

    1. Trevor, I’m surprised, what is Luxon’s proven track record in politics compared to Ardern?

  10. These polls 15 months out look like a rollercoaster. 15 months to expose Luxon for what he is and 15 months for Labour to “appear” to be the right track. What a fickle lot voters are.

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