Poll of Polls tells you what Daily Blog has been saying for 12 months

Oh look at that, the poll of Polls tells you what TDB has spent 12 months pointing out…

Election 2023: Herald’s poll of polls has Labour edging National – coalition with Greens, Te Pāti Māori well ahead

Labour is edging ahead of National and together with the Green Party and Te Pāti Māori is the most likely coalition, according to the Herald’s latest poll of polls analysis.

That coalition is only the clear favourite, however, because National has ruled out working with Te Pāti Māori. A coalition with those two and Act would have a 99.7 per cent chance of forming a government if the election were held this weekend.

It comes ahead of the National Party’s conference this weekend in Wellington, where its MPs will look to rally the troops going into what is shaping up to be an incredibly tight election campaign.

Using data from different pollsters and running multiple election simulations, including this month’s Taxpayer Union Curia and the Talbot Mills poll this week, Labour is currently on 35 per cent of the party vote – slightly above National at 34.6 per cent.

Factoring in National’s most-likely coalition partner, the right bloc with Act’s 11 per cent reaches 45.6 per cent, compared to 8 per cent for the Greens, which typically sides with Labour, and together those two parties reach 43 per cent.

Neither could govern alone on those numbers and with 3.4 per cent of the vote, Te Pāti Māori again finds itself in a kingmaker position. But with National Party leader Christopher Luxon having ruled out working with them in any scenario, the most likely governing coalition would be Labour, Greens and Te Pāti Māori.

That coalition has a 51.1 per cent likelihood of occurring if an election were to be held this weekend, dropping to 50.1 per cent on polling day (October 14).

…yes, that’s right, it’s going to be a Labour minority Government with supply and confidence from the Māori Party!

Folks you can read it here first on The Daily Blog or you can wait 12 fucking months for the Herald to spell out the bleeding obvious!

The reason Labour’s vote is holding up so spectacularly is because the middle voter is shit terrified of what a National/ACT would mutate into. They see that Luxon is spectacularly weak and David Seymour will get through every crazy far right wet dream he’s ever had!

For the educated they can see the atrocity of policy amputation ACT are serious about and understand it’s an existential threat to the body politic.

Michael Wood could have been told to sell this fucking shares a million times, and that middle are still voting Labour to stop a National/ACT Government.

Ironically the more the Right shit on Māori, the stronger the Māori Party vote gets.

If the price for Supply and Confidence from the Māori Party are legacy policy that has an immediate material well being on the poorest, they will lock themselves into a new generational power block that will be forever central to political decision making in this nation.

We could have the most left wing Government since Savage or the most right wing one since Roger Douglas.

 

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