Ohariu u-turn – Latest Green Party meltdown
Hi, I’m running the Green Party strategy
Once again, I’m disappointed at the stupidity of the Greens latest strategy meltdown by u-turning their decision to not stand in Ohariu.
Here’s the problems with this:
- It makes the Greens look incredibly flakey at a time when they can not afford to look like that anymore.
- It means National might win the seat. Green acolytes claim that because the Party vote determines the number of MPs it doesn’t risk anything which is of course bullshit as it can impact the overhang.
- It makes the Greens look even less able to work with Labour which when all the tide is rushing towards Labour is just stupidity beyond belief.
- Ultimately this is about revenge against Labour. A senior Green MP when hearing Jacinda state that climate change is her generations nuclear issue, turned and swore exclaiming that it was a declaration of war.
Allowing Labour a free run in Ohariu would just be for good will purposes now, purposely fucking up Labour’s chances of a win means that when the dust settles Labour are going to be merciless when it comes to negotiations.
My problem with the Greens is that they are checker players trying to play chess. They never seem to see beyond two moves ahead.
It’s like getting Hodor to be the Kings Hand.
The strategic brains within the Greens have been missing since Andrew Campbell stood down, but it was falling over before that.
I don’t want to sound mean, but the Greens hired the Trolls Troll, David Cormack, a member of the Wellington Twitteratti so vile he makes cancer seem friendly to be their communications and policy director! (to be fair for the reader, and to explain my undying hatred for this arsehole, David once claimed on Twitter that he had ‘secret information about my family’ that he threatened to release to the public and I’ve managed to knife his aspirations in the back ever since, I hope that sanctimonious fuckwit really, really, really regrets ever threatening me). Indeed it’s been this sad reliance on the Wellington Twitteratti for comms that has been their main problem (I note with an immense amount of mirth that many of the Wellington Twitteratti have ended up setting up their own Wellington consultancy because they can’t get employed anywhere else in the established left because of their toxicity. It looks like whispering campaigns can go both ways).
Some of the current Green strategists have thrown themselves on their own swords for the clusterfuck that was the handling of Metiria’s courageous admission which was stupid. Leaving weeks before the election isn’t noble, it just makes things worse.
The real reason behind the massive drop in Green vote (other than the mishandling of Metiria’s brave admission) was the betrayal and disloyalty of Kennedy Graham and David Clendon. Voters punish division within a Party, Labour has managed to learn that after 9 years.
The middle classing of the Greens was only a strategy that could work when Labour was weak, the second Jacinda became leader that strategy was flawed and would fail. The inability to move quickly enough to the new political landscape has left the Greens unable to come up with a clear strategy.
The Greens need to focus on solid retail politics on what voters will get if they vote Green. Jacinda is going to do the big vision stuff with as little details as possible, so targeted specifics are needed to get Green voters to the polls in September.
They’ve made a good start with the Youth Green Card that will allow free public transport, they need to follow it up with policy that Labour won’t want to touch…
This is a heat map of voters produced by James Mulrennan that gives an idea of who the Greens need to appeal to…
I’m voting Greens because I stand with Metiria and because they are the only Party who are actually promising to do something about poverty in this country. Labour are too gutless and spineless to increase welfare, the Greens have the courage to do that.
Unfortunately I’m not sure the Greens will be able to get to the finish line without self-mutilating themselves into oblivion.
Right now the Greens have a solid shot at 7-11% on election day. Metiria’s courage has resonated with huge numbers of beneficiaries and if the Greens can just focus on selling retail politics to their target electorate, they can hold on despite Labour moving towards 40%.
But after the election there needs to be a serious reflection of the strategists roles and a complete clean out to find a new team. This time they need to look well beyond Wellington to fill those roles.
There is nothing wrong with the Greens standing a candidate in Ohariu to get more party votes. In fact I think it is a smart move with Dunne stepping down it changes the situation. Shaw has been upfront about this move, saying why they are doing it. And honesty is usually the best policy sometimes (not with Metiria) after the gnats fiasco with bills letter telling the voters what to do who knows what will happen next.
I agree.
I don’t see what the fuss is about, and I’m sick of these flakey voters that change their affiliations at the drop of a hat
Disagree. Here’s why.
Many of us with in the debating community may have different tastes in different Green Party Policy. This could be because of world view or how the Hreens apply there principles. Or maybe even the emotional impact Greens candidates ect have on day to day life. Don’t get me wrong I think The Green Energy Fund and social reforms are key to building a sustainable future. It’s just no one is checking to see if candidates understand the risks of standing in an electorate race. So let’s look at some basic risk analysis.
18,000 party vote National in Ohariu. That is a far to short sighted vision. Lets assume Greg O’Connor published cannabis reforms is the reason Ohariu voters saw Peter Dunnes treatment of Hellen Kelly as most deplorable. Let’s also assume the Greens captures 7%-11%. So that’s 1260-1980. So the Greens pretty much should be assuming 1260-1980 people smoke weed in Ohariu. So the numbers don’t fit which suggest something else is going on. I’ll explain.
The 17% rise in support for Greg O’Connor suggests Peter Dunn could have signed off on Hellen Kelly’s prescription but didn’t, and could have under the laws but didn’t. Dunn has done so in the past. So there’s a contradiction. National Party voters are law abiding citizens. They don’t brake laws but if laws are changed technically then they will abide by them and not before.
In conclusion The Green Party strategy team are hitting all the wrong buttons. They don’t even know the electorate. Best guess is they’ll get single digits in Ohariu and spend far to much resources in Ohariu when they should immidiatly shift these resources right the fuck now to Te Tai Tonga because that’s what it means to stand with Metiria.
Assumptions are the cancer of the disorganised so get it done.
“Labour are going to be merciless when it comes to negotiations.”
When has Labour ever been other than merciless towards those on their left? .. Not in my lifetime.
“Regulated and taxed cannabis market ”
Not going to happen. The great Jacinda has spoken. She’s worried about the children.
The fewer gun nuts in parliament the better.
Well done, the Greens.
I’d have a different view if Labour’s candidate was anyone who merited respect.
“It makes the Greens look even less able to work with Labour which when all the tide is rushing towards Labour is just stupidity beyond belief.”
As a former Green Party member I concur with you Matryn.
I am beyond belief, Greens have committed hari kari here, and will loose many votes over this as they did before.
I will stay out of the Party now until thy see reason.
+100 CLEANGREEN
Well look forward to Winnie smirking his way to the negotiation table
Voters are a fickle lot if this sets the chickens squawking
…sorry some can think for themselves!…sorry about that Greens!
…and some have had reservations about the Greens for some time…and some cant be bullied
Why the hell should the Greens even bother trying to make overtures to Labour any more? Jacinda’s role in Metiria’s assassination shouldn’t be ignored. Labour have outed themselves as a party of the right and institutionally incapable of being trusted. The Greens have nothing to lose now, since it’s clear any role they’d have in a Labour government would be lip service only.
As I said before (and often) the Greens are bedevilled by middle class wankers.
They will never be a force for anything until they re-assess their political base and whom they represent.
They might like to be seen as the left but they simply don’t have the lineage or tradition.
My plan to vote Green for Metiria is going to leave me tarnished with middle class wankerism (shudder!).
All this is giving Green Party supporters like me almost daily heart attacks. I don’t think the problem is that the Greens are no good at chess. It’s that they are no good at checkers. Those making strategy decisions are over-thinking everything.
But I don’t get it
The Green candidate is asking for the party vote, not the electorate.
Its a sure thing that O’Connor will get in, whats the problem? Jacinda doesn’t seem to be bothered by it at all
Typo Its never been a sure thing O’Connor will get in
National is leading for party vote. They will now vote for Hudson, surely.
Why shouldn’t the Greens pick up party votes now that Dunne is gone?
because of the optics(and the selling by the MSM)…any wavering Nat (or UF) voter considering voting labour (either party or electorate) will be now less inclined to switch due to the display of inconsistency and unreliability of its potential partner….whatever the reasoning (or pique) by the Greens it is a mind numbingly stupid act…..said as one who gave them my party vote last election (not this time now)
Oh well , I’ll be voting Green for the party vote… it was going to be for Labour a few weeks back , but along came Jacinda. I particularly like 3 , 4 , 5 , 7 and 8 on that list provided.
I also believe we need the Greens to be part of the next Government.
I don’t think it should all be left up to Labour and NZ First , and as Martyn said , the Greens have now publicized the issue of poverty in this country. And this dialogue has been years overdue .
re “the Greens have now publicized the issue of poverty in this country”
…wow I don’t think so!
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11836406
…and not good at checkers or chess
Remember when labour greens and NZ First were sitting around the table discussing how to lead a coalition with the phrase “Government in waiting”?????
This was less than two years ago friends so who screwed this all up???
Sure wasn’t NZ First or labour!!!
The message I’m getting from the Greens at present, is Metiria was the mainstay of the party, the glue that kept it together and functioning fairly well. I don’t understand why at this late stage, despite Dunne’s resignation, the party will be standing a candidate in Ohariu! I very much doubt Metiria would have supported this move!
For a while there, Metiria owned politics through the amount of support she received after her revelation, which only proved how human she was. Of course that was before msm picked her bones to pieces, like a pack of salivating, blood thirsty rabid dogs!
Like Martyn, my party vote will still be Green, keeping in mind Metiria’s dedication to serving the impoverished. It’s good to see the amount of people who still support and stand by her. Proudly I include myself there.
The Green party needs Metiria more than ever now. Her departure has left a big void not only in the party, but in politics in general, while at the same time the poor have been deprived of an effective champion and voice.
Damn the likes of Hosking, Garner, Gower et al for their betrayal of less fortunate NZers! May they never find peace or
contentment for the rest of their filthy, rotten lives!
Good on them now that Dunne has gone why not. You know we have to have them to keep Labour on their toes. Everything is done it seems to me for Labour, where is the give back, is there any?
I suspect that having a candidate in the electorate does help a party to obtain party votes.