New Poll – Hung Parliament – Luxon should be worried about Erica Stanford

ByMartyn Bradbury
  • Labour 33.6%, up 2 percentage points (43 seats)
  • National 31.8%, down 2.1 (40 seats)
  • Greens: 9.8%, up 0.5 (12 seats)
  • ACT: 8.6%, down 0.5 (11 seats)
  • NZ First: 7.8%, down 2 (10 seats)
  • Te Pāti Māori: 3.2%, down 0.3 points (6 seats)

The latest poll from the Astroturf stable of clients is making the Right nervous as Labour over take National and everything points to a hung Parliament.

ACT and NZF racist and abrasive policy positions are great for the reactionary Right but the death knell to National’s soft blue voter base who elected Luxon hoping their house property would go up 10%, they sure as fuck weren’t voting for a race war and anti-vaccine madness!

National will keep bleeding out to Labour until National dump Luxon and based on Erica Stanfords power performance on Q+A, hen should be nervous that’s where the knifing will occur.

Rumours are already circulating of a National Party Leadership tilt either just before Christmas or in the Summer.

PS – I like how all the mainstream media are now forced to add this to the Astroturf stable of clients pollsters –

Curia is a long-running and established pollster in New Zealand, which has resigned its membership from the Research Association New Zealand (Ranz) industry body.

 

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39 Comments

  1. Chippy should be rolled if he doesn’t introduce a wealth tax and CGT. Otherwise, what would be the bloody point of voting for more of the same?

    1. While we’re at it, a financial transactions tax, a 30,000 tax free income band, lower income tax rates, and GST scrapped altogether.
      Time to start collecting dues from the true bludgers and bottom feeding parasites in society and recognise the true value of those who create the nation through work.

  2. Would a Stanford PMship necessitate a revised coalition agreement, and if so, could that bring about a snap election.

  3. I think all media reporting on Curia polling should carry this statement.

    “Curia no longer need to abide by any standards in their polling. This lack of standards is what led to them leaving the Research Association before they were kicked out.”

      1. Given I don’t trust Curias polling and never have, that’s a moot question.

        You can check the findings of the Research Association if you wish.

        Curia left before the “academic freedom” survey for the TPU could be adjudicated.

        Probably because that poll was absolute tripe based on self selection. IE: “100% of the respondents said they believed they couldn’t speak freely.”

        They don’t mention only a handful of the thousands of academics they spammed actually responded.

        Junk stats for trash people.

        1. Cinder, you said Curia needed a consumer warning (which is fine). Curia said that Luxon has real problems. Does the result need a warning ? This is precisely what you seem to be saying?

  4. A lot of water to go under the bridge here. I cant see Luxton bowing out to the greater good as did Andrew Little so it has to be a coup. The one that sticks in my mind is Jenny Shipley’s ousting of Bolger. Bolger was apparently not entirely supportive of the party’s neoliberal direction, Shipley got the caucus support while he was out of the country and upon returning Bolger fell on his sword seeing it was futile to resist.

    So what would be Luxton’s demise? Simply the polls? Nah, a couple of points is irrelevant in the bigger picture. A tumble down the polls, perhaps. But then what would be Stanford’s motivation? She’s no Jenny Shipley.

    1. Well given the time Luxon spends out of the country, whoever wants to roll him will have plenty of opportunities won’t they?

  6. Just shows that Chippy won’t be leaving the helm anytime soon, cos what we have along with the usual divided electorate (except in times of war and pandemic) is strong and growing buyer remorse for the current governing politicians that promised deliverance but have been found out to have no workable plan. Winston if he manages to keep his numbers up is going to be faced with a dilemma in who he supports because it is strongly looking like National are going to tank. By election day next year all that will be achieved over this parliamentary term is division, hunger, homelessness, growing unemployment, Maori bashing, a failing economy, rampant emigration and a seething anger within the electorate at being lied to.

    1. It’s all about trust Neil and this abysmal excuse for a govt has poisoned that trust with middle AONZ. National and Act will only appeal to the fringe voter after this regime fiasco is terminated. Winston however will retain his tinfoil hat followers and continue entertaining that circus with is rodeo stunts.

  7. Fascinating. I do wonder if we are entering an era where our problems such as health and the cost of living etc cannot be solved in a three year cycle and we pivot into just changing government every three years.

    1. They could be easily solved if politicians with any will to do it were in play. Hipkins won’t even commit to repealing all of Luxon’s legislation on day 1 because he doesn’t have a sack.

  8. You’re not wrong Big Fish. Not only the suff you identify but also infrastructure not to mention big decisions around meaningful tax reform and shifting Super entitlements. In the absence of bipartisan support a three year cycle just doesn’t get the important stuff done. Nor would four years.

  9. This poll would see a Labour/Greens/NZ First Government with 65 seats. There is no two ways about it, this poll does not show a hung Parliament, it shows a decisive change of Government. Luxon and Stanford should both be terrified of this result.

      3. Trevor, why Bridges, haven’t you got any Ferry’s to sell, bahahahahahahahaha!!!!

      4. I’ll buy your bridge Trevor.
        Then demolish it and crush any creepy orange trolls that happen to live under it.

  10. I’d like to see Labour’s policies ASAP. If they’re not going to change this neoliberal bullshit they’ve all been subscribed to for the last 40 years, I’m not voting for them. I’ll vote TPM or Green.

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