Looking Forward To 2022
LET’S PLAY A GAME. Let’s pretend we’re half-way through 2022. Covid-19 isn’t exactly a memory, people still get it, but hardly anyone ends up in hospital and almost nobody dies. So politics has returned to all the normal settings. The Government is no longer being judged on how well it kept us all safe from Covid. Now it’s all about what it’s doing; how well it’s doing it; and whether it should be doing it at all.
Now, those of us with good memories, will recall that this is exactly where the Labour-NZ First-Green Government was at in the weeks before the global pandemic swept politics-as-usual from the stage. Back when Simon Bridges was leading National, and National was leading Labour in the polls. Back when Jacinda Ardern had Winston Peters to protect her and Labour from their worst woke instincts. Back when, Winston’s presence notwithstanding, things weren’t looking so good for the Left.
Okay, so that’s where we are in 2022. Living in a New Zealand where all the usual rules of politics once again apply. And, guess what? Jacinda’s government, once again, isn’t doing very well – not very well at all.
What is the cause of the Government’s worrying slide in the polls? Most people would agree that it is Nanaia Mahuta’s “Three Waters” programme. With the local government elections fast approaching, a nationwide political movement is taking shape dedicated to rolling back what is now being quite openly presented as a Māori power grab for the nation’s water. Tickets are being organised all over the country of candidates pledged to resist the state’s confiscation of municipally owned water resources and infrastructure. Already ratepayer groups are pledging to engage in civil disobedience to prevent the Three Waters programme going ahead.
Why haven’t Jacinda and her colleagues simply cancelled the programme and gone back to the drawing-board? The answer lies in the disproportionate death-toll of Māori Covid victims. When the Delta outbreak turned deadly in the last few weeks of 2021, it was in unvaccinated Māori communities that it really went to work.
The anguish and anger of Māori is easily imagined, and almost all of it was directed at the Labour Party. It was, after all, Labour which had presented itself as the Māori people’s best friend back in 2017. And it was Jacinda Ardern who went to Waitangi in 2018 and asked Māori to hold her and her Government accountable for their actions. In vain did reasonable people point out that it was Covid-19 that had killed Māori – not Labour. But, after the trauma of 2021, Māori weren’t in a very reasonable frame of mind.
So, the Labour leadership felt obliged to back their own Māori caucus’s agenda without reservation. Anticipating the massive resistance Nanaia’s Three Waters programme was bound to inspire, they steeled themselves for the inevitable racist backlash and told them to press on regardless – the Government had their back.
This was why Labour had forced through the Three Waters reforms, legislating right over the top of an overwhelming majority of local authorities’ objections. And why, faced with the prospect of a clean right-wing sweep through the nation’s district, city and regional councils, the Government was seriously considering using its Covid Emergency Powers to postpone the local government elections for at least another year.
To say this idea was going down like a cup of cold sick with a majority of the electorate was to understate the position considerably. Following his generous settlement with Harry Tam, Winston Peters was now roaring back into electoral contention on the back of the racist beast unleashed by the Three Waters reforms. The votes that weren’t surging towards NZ First were being gratefully received by National and Act. Small wonder Labour was shedding support.
Although, not that much support. Thanks to the sterling efforts of the mainstream news media in explaining/justifying Mahuta’s scheme, a crucial chunk of the Pakeha population was refusing to jump on the anti-Three Waters bandwagon. Educated voters were sticking with Labour, even as principled conservatives, disgusted by the overtly racist narrative of the right-wing parties, were gritting their teeth and shifting their support to the Left.
Labour was looking at the fast-growing support for the Māori Party, calculating that the Greens would remain above the 5 percent threshold, and factoring-in the likely consequences of making it easier for Māori voters to switch from the General to the Māori Roll – coupled with lowering of the voting age to sixteen. With the election still a year away, there just might be a narrow – very narrow – pathway to power.
Covid or no Covid, in this political game, there was still everything to play for.
The three waters debacle is the focus point re all things Maori at this point in time (overshadowed somewhat in the low Maori vaccination rates). It is but the tip of the iceberg in growing anti Maori resentment within the 85%.
Many of the 85% consider themselves as ” People of the Land” having in some cases over 10 generations or more bonded with this land. In their minds they have what Maori call “Tangata Whenua” status.
The denial of the status “People of the land” for the 85%, by Maori will be the major reason Maori self determination (as proposed in the He Poupou report) will never be voted for.
Now Labour are very undemocratic in enacting parts of the He Poupou report (health and water but two examples) however the status of Maori will never reach the 50/50 split governance they seek. It would simply trample over the “one person = one vote” so enshrined in democracy.
The He Popou report is a major disaster for Maori as it fails to even make a mention of how the 85% fit in the picture painted. They can’t, so the whole movement to Maori self representation in equal partnership with the 85% (but still availing the taxes paid by the 85%) is never going to fly.
We should be having discussions about how the whole of New Zealand can be bettered. What we are currently overfed with is everything for Maori being bettered with no regard to how the 85% is fairing.
I can hear the engines revving. “what about the treaty?, what about colonisation (conquered)?” Yes there are issues but unless you carry the 85% along with the process, they will be empty vessels making a lot of noise. We are all victims in New Zealand, just currently some victims are “more equal than others.”
People of the land is a literal meaning but Tangata whenua more closely resembles the word indigenous and does not deny where certain people came from.
Sam, just as an FYI, I would have to say that if I was part of the Maori leadership, I would be pushing to change that “People of the Land” understanding, at least in terms of interpretation.
I have talked to many people who feel as I do (Many of them first generation NZers from multiple countries) who feel an overwhelming spiritual connection to this land. I have always felt it. The first time I heard that only Maori were ‘People of the Land, it really upset me, I actually cried. I thought, This is who I am, this is my heart, how can they say this?
Now today for the first time thanks to you, I understand it as maybe it was intended. But its worth noting, that through the media and even Maori themselves, many Tau Iwi have absorbed this faulty understanding of what it means.
In maoridome, it’s up to the children of to give there name and Whakapapa, the mana.
Academics smarter than both you and I will very likely bitch about my interpretations of Maori, and they regularly do but that’s what it is and that’s that’s.
I’m proud of where I came from and how I got here and so should you.
The “people of the land”, “Blood and Soil” is the ethno nationalist call. We know where that leads, or do we?
That’s all in your, head.
Read some history Sam, “Blood and Soil” (Blut und Boden) came from the Nazis.
Read this (from Wik) and explain to me how this isn’t what is being proposed by our ethno-nationalists:
“The central political tenet of ethnic nationalism is that ethnic groups are entitled to self-determination. The outcome of this right to self-determination may vary, from calls for self-regulated administrative bodies within an already-established society, to an autonomous entity separate from that society, to a sovereign state removed from that society.
Ethnic nationalism bases membership of the nation on descent or heredity, often articulated in terms of common blood or kinship, rather than on political membership. Hence, nation-states with strong traditions of ethnic nationalism tend to define nationality or citizenship by jus sanguinis (the law of blood, descent from a person of that nationality), and countries with strong traditions of civic nationalism tend to define nationality or citizenship by jus soli (the law of soil, birth within the nation state). Ethnic nationalism is, therefore, seen as exclusive, while civic nationalism tends to be inclusive. Rather than allegiance to common civic ideals and cultural traditions, then, ethnic nationalism tends to emphasise narratives of common descent.
The only way I see New Zealand breaking up is if the treaty is scraped.
FYI Gerrit.
The name of the controversial report on giving effect to the UN Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples is He Puapua – meaning “a break in the wave”. It is an important document and deserves to be spelled correctly.
My bad, Apologies.
Question is who is it important to?
The 85% not mentioned within the report, or the 15% who are worth mentioning?
120 Billion to 185 Billion is required over the next 30-40 years to meet the drinking water and the wastewater standards.
Local Government boomers have been grossly negligent on water and waste over many years. Much of the infrastructure is run down and unfit for purpose.
Something has to change. Or maybe we could just leave it to the next generation ay boy.
Yes indeed, some councils lack the rates revenue and expertise to sort out their waste water issues.
So provide them with funds and expertise – I’m not sure how handing the power of veto on all public works to an unelected tribal elite will help in this regard.
Most councils around the country are riddled with corruption and cannot be trusted as far as you can kick them.
Tauranga, Hamilton, Hastings and Christchurch to name just a few recent examples. There are many others.
And look at the Havelock North fiasco as just one of the many examples of incompetent poor management by vested interests who seem to inveigle their way into council positions.
And while the government is sorting that mess out they should also bring back the MED and the Ministry Of Works.
While there may be problems in some areas (Wellington’s waste water for example) about 150 thousand million is such an extraordinary amount of money it beggars belief. Where did that figure come from?
There are already statutory requirements regarding water, and a process to ensure compliance, so it’s difficult to see amalgamation and centralisation being some sort of cure-all answer to the problems, such as they are. Super city anyone?
So what is the real motivation? Why the childish and insulting propaganda program? Why the need for Maori ownership and control?
The whole thing reeks.
Chris, I like your crystal ball because there are certainly elements of truth in it.
I would add: Exiting the lockdowns, many will be left with a bitter taste in their mouths. Jobs lost. Businesses failed. Relatives dead because of a lack of medical staff and facilities. The masses will be in a mood for revolt I reckon.
Real time with Bomber Bradbury?