PODCAST: A New Arms Race: Deterrence and De-Escalation Are They Still Valid Concepts?

BySelwyn Manning

 

https://www.youtube.com/live/LCRSVkaEFTk?si=xHz0OTsiQQBvFwQJ

In this episode of A View from Afar political scientist and former Pentagon Analyst, Paul G. Buchanan and journalist Selwyn Manning discuss, debate, and assess whether deterrence is still a valid concept in international relations.

Paul and Selwyn assess whether deterrence has failed in Syria, Ukraine, the Middle East, and failed to stop an intensification of threat in the South China Sea.

And they consider the question:

Is nuclear deterrence dead in the water?

But, overnight, the New York Times released details of a secret new nuclear deterrence plan that has been advanced in secret by the Biden Administration. Biden’s Nuke Plan is designed to ensure the USA stays ahead of an arms race, and a supposed coordination of nuclear weapons technologies being developed by China, North Korea and Russia.

New questions arise.

Does a new-generation arms race, led by the United States, based on advanced nuclear weaponry, made more fearsome due to a rapid advance of artificial intelligence-assisted decision-making and target-selection, mixed with hybrid warfare, cause aggressive nations to rethink the consequences should they preemptively initiate conflict?

  • And what about the majority of the world, what about small states, small powers, that seek stability and security via multilateralism or a constellation of like-minded nations – how does deterrence impact on their decision-making?
  • Do alliances, led by global powers, that rely on deterring adversaries through development of superior weaponry and technology, offer small states more risks than benefits?
  • Specifically, is it preferable for many small states to focus on de-escalation and cooperative security rather than bind themselves to collective security agreements that are focused on deterring adversaries?
  • And, the big question: How do we as member states in a world where bipolarity and conflict is intensifying, ensure de-escalation occurs without reaching a tipping-point that we cannot return from?
  • Is cooperative security, and mutually agreed to weapons and technological controls, the way toward restoring an uneasy peace in the world?

INTERACTION WHILE LIVE:

Paul and Selwyn encourage their live audience to interact while they are live with questions and comments.

To interact during the live recording of this podcast, go to Youtube.com/c/EveningReport/

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RECOGNITION: The MIL Network’s podcast A View from Afar was Nominated as a Top Defence Security Podcast by Threat.Technology – a London-based cyber security news publication. Threat.Technology placed A View from Afar at 9th in its 20 Best Defence Security Podcasts of 2021 category.

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4 Comments

  1. Big tick and thanks as always for this pair. They definitely engage their brains before their mouths!

    It was interesting how Paul deconstructed AUKUS, and Selywn’s take on small states not buying into big states narratives.

  2. The risk of nuclear war is at an all time high, this should by right be the single immediate issue everybody should be concerned about.

    If we get one positive result from the current wars in the Middle East and Ukraine it would be to revive SALT. All parties have delivery platforms that cannot be stopped despite the propaganda, and any doctrine of first strike needs to be seen as the lethal nonsense it is. Better to limit arsenals and accept that any use is going to result in mutual destruction.

  3. Deterrence works. As is proven by the DPRK and Iran not having been invaded by the zionists like Iraq and Syria were, despite their heroic support of the Palestinian cause. It’s past time for Russia to put nukes in Nicaragua, Venezuela, and Cuba.

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