DOW JONES MELTDOWN: Liberation Day? Only if you are on the side of the Aliens! Why Trump is crashing the global economy
This is how Trump thinks his ‘Liberation Day’ speech went…
…this is how it actually went…
…I warned you all that the second coming of Trump would be utterly different from his first term.
I argued that his attempt to overthrow the election results with his insurrection ruled him out from ever holding power again because once you’ve done that, you’ve shown what you really are.
A fascist.
I have argued he is a fascist, that his orange fascism manipulated the United States of Wounded Masculinity to elect a Plutocracy.
His understanding of the power of resentment has seen the undermensch empower the ubermensch.
Trump’s grotesque narcism and gleeful ignorance IS America.
He is the tangerine stained leering face is what American Capitalism always was.
The largest war economy on earth is now being run by someone who believes God saved him from assassination.
The difference between war crime and genocide tends to be te belief by the person inflicting the violence that God is on their side.
Trump 2.0 is totally different from Trump 1.0.
Look.
Since Covid ruptured supply chains and geopolitical tensions changed just-in-time supply chains to just-in-case supply chains, the West has been importing inflation.
This has caused price gouging by Price Makers and crushed the working classes with a cost of living crisis.
Trump’s Tariff blitz risks the beginning of an escalation that risks flocks of Black Swans.
To date we have been told by Trump’s defenders that his wild and mad proclamations are all the spin of a deal maker negotiating the best deal with the worst threats, and certainly the Art of the Deal is just a how to guide for Alpha Jock Dickheads doing Alpha Male Jock Dickhead stunts.
Taking offence at some unrelated issue and causing a Tantrum for emotional leverage to get the best deal you can isn’t Art or a Deal, it’s Alpha Male Jock Dickhead bully behaviour that has all the empathy of an average Andrew Tate bro culture tutorial.
This time around however Trump believes God saved him from an assassination attempt.
If Trump believes he’s the vessel for Christ’s retribution, he’s going to do shit for realzies.
I fear he absolutely intends to ram Tariffs on the world permanently from Canada to China.
It hurts China and destabilises their already weak economy.
It hurts Canada and gives fuel to the MAGA movement in Canada and sets a narrative they should become a de facto 51st State.
Why would Trump commit to such a staggeringly stupid move?
Because he believes God has saved him to do special God stuff to be the bestest American President ever!
This is all alongside his total reestablishment of the entire geopolitical strategy of the last 100 years by making Russia an ally, annexing Gaza and embarking upon creating a new white Christofascist Empire that includes Canada, Greenland and the Panama Canal.
This God delusion for a narcissist allows Trump to do things no other sane President would attempt so he will blunder into a Global economic meltdown because his decision making has become manifest fucking destiny.
This seems fine according to JD Vance…
In the end, Trump may not care too much if the dollar becomes a source of global instability. Vice President-elect JD Vance argued last year that the dollar’s role as a global reserve currency has subsidized Americans’ ‘mass consumption of mostly useless imports.’
…the last time the American Dollar became this dangerously over priced was in 1985 when a negotiated series of interventions was agreed to bring the dollar down in a controlled manner…
This problem last occurred in early 1985, when the dollar was universally reckoned to be dangerously dear. At that time the US was able to call on trading partners who depended on the US security umbrella – the UK, Germany, France and Japan – to negotiate the ‘Plaza Accord’, which coordinated a series of interventions in the foreign exchange market that allowed the dollar to decline in a measured way.
…there is no way China would agree today to helping America devalue their dollar generated by Trump’s Tariffs.
That leaves a dangerously overvalued currency risking massive financial dislocation all because Trump thinks God loves him.
My speculation, purely based on Trump’s inane narcissism, is that he is incapable of backing down, especially now he thinks God has saved him to Make America Great Again and that he won’t be able to accept the Tariffs are a bad decision and the economic carnage he triggers by implementing them will drive him to double down rather than back down.
I can see his Billionaire Libertarian Crypto-Bros convincing him of removing the American Dollar and replacing it with an American Crypto-Currency as the solution the way taking America off the Gold Standard in 1933 helped expansionist growth…
Under Trump, cryptocurrency is set to go mainstream – but that won’t make it any safer for investors
As the United States prepares for Donald Trump’s inauguration on 20 January, all eyes are on the cryptocurrency markets. After Bitcoin’s price reached $100,000(£81,917) for the first time in history in December 2024, the cryptocurrency community is eagerly anticipating Trump’s fulfilment of his campaign promise to make the US the “crypto capital of the planet”. Some analysts predict that Bitcoin’s price could range between $78,000 and $250,000 in 2025.
Blockchain technology has numerous applications beyond crypto payments – for example, in supply chain and logistics. But it is the price surges of Bitcoin, Ethereum and “meme coins” that capture the majority of public attention. Speculative demand and the potential for abnormal returns, which are rarely found in other financial markets, remain key drivers of their prices.
Investors are often motivated by the prospect of short-term profits rather than a belief in the asset’s true or fundamental value. In the case of meme coins, speculative demand is primarily driven by social media culture and community enthusiasm, with little focus on the utility of the underlying technology or long-term success of the project.
Fuelled by expectations of a more favourable regulatory environment under the Trump administration, there is now increased institutional interest in cryptocurrencies. Major players such as BlackRock are entering the crypto derivatives market, increasing liquidity and drawing even more investors. This industry and political support for cryptocurrency demonstrates higher adoption and greater acceptance of crypto assets. At the same time, the speculative nature of crypto assets raises concerns that political endorsements could inflate a bubble, similar to the dotcom bubble that lasted between 1998 and 2000.
Financial market bubbles occur when asset prices far exceed their fundamental values and no longer reflect actual risks. When these bubbles burst, they can trigger a contagion effect, causing the collapse of related securities – even in industries with no direct connection to the troubled assets.
In my research, alongside fellow authors, I analysed companies that had rebranded with crypto-related names to boost their stock prices, despite no changes to their business models. This superficial association made these companies susceptible to contagion from the broader crypto ecosystem. If investors did not investigate whether these companies genuinely adopted blockchain technology, they are likely to sell these stocks swiftly at the first sign of negative news or a crisis in the crypto market.
…Trump is dumb enough and will be desperate enough to find a disruptive new way to make money as the American Economy tanks because of his Tariffs.
For the first month after replacing the American dollar with a Crypto Currency, the new American Crypto Currency will make more money than any of them dreamed, and then on day 31, for reasons none of the Billionaire Libertarian Crypto-Bros will be able to explain to any of us, it will crash because the whole thing is one giant speculative bubble that will implode in a way that makes the Wall Street Crash look like a gentle trip.
Is that a bird?
Is it a plane?
Or is it flocks of Black Swans?
The slow drum beat for war just picked up in tempo.
Don’t look at your KiwiSaver.
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Something like this has always been on the cards. The US has long been tricky on the subject of free trade. It has just got a tad trickier under Donald Trump.
Meanwhile despite its professions of sang-froid the colonial political establishment must be reeling in shock. It staked everything on the idea that New Zealand was and should be “a trading nation” which is to say a colonialist appendage of the Anglo-Saxon powers. Now trading has got difficult. Tangata motu always knew it would, whether for reasons of mercantilism, war, pandemics, or critical resource shortages. Mostly tangata motu have been preparing for the eventuality, and so may not be too seriously affected.
How will the colonialists themselves fare? A 10% tariff is not in itself too serious. Those who export wine and beef from New Zealand to the US, many of whom are themselves US citizens, will suffer some loss of revenue, and the revenue that would normally have gone back to New Zealand business will instead go into the coffers of the US Treasury. New Zealand companies which foolishly switched their manufacturing to Mexico and Thailand will be hurt, along with their Mexican and Thai workers. There will be some secondary effects as the US tariffs have a depressing effect on global trade patterns in general. That is about all there will be to it.
If the colonialist regime was even half-smart it would see this as a warning shot across its bow. Christopher Luxon would go quiet about “increasing exports by 40%” or whatever the magic number of the day might be. It would start preparing for the day when things get even tougher and it is no longer viable to be “a small trading nation” to the extent that implies total dependence on foreign markets for one’s own survival.
But is the regime even half-smart? The next year may tell.
Except that Trump doesn’t believe in god so he doesn’t think he’s chosen by one.
He essentially thinks he is god.
One of the injustices in the world that tRump actually used as an example is Australian beef. Every year Aus exports $3b of beef to USA. How much beef does it import. None. So unfair. Stealing from American farmers. So extra tariffs on their number 1 ally.
‘a man chosen and protected by the Lord Almighty.’
FUCK IT ZELDA! I keep telling you to leave me out of this!
It’s never usually as bad or as good as people expect – I think that is the way to look at it. The US political system is designed to deal with overreach and I think that will come into play at some point.
In the link below is a very funny and nuanced discussion with John Stewart and ‘new right’ economist about – unexpected – more Bernie Sanders than Milton Friedman. Interesting narrative shift towards the working class and their quality of life and wages.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vgEQeLR-M0g
I saw that clip yesterday and really enjoyed it. It was a good interview
Mr Marmalade is actually upset about balance of trade, not about what he thinks are anti US tariffs.
The imbalance of trade is simply a natural consequence of USA being a richer nation with more to spend.
It can be easily remedied by USA ceasing to be so insufferably entitled and instead lower its expectations and consume less. If they don’t want to spend their money, let them bloody eat it.
Who knows how Wall St will react. Its driven by fear and greed so possibly all hell could break out. Similarly crypto.
Capital investment in plant and infrastructure – the bricks and mortar of industry – is another matter. Perhaps Trump and his coatpullers have a plan to rebuild from the rubble. Or simply popularist rhetoric to keep him and his Republican faction in the Oval Office?
Will it work? Will it end badly, for America and the rest of the trading world? Depends on you talk to.
Can you stop saying ‘I told you so’ it’s very fuckin juvenile at this point.
To be fair it’s better to proclaim it because you pricks would be first to say ” hindsight is a wonderful thing”.
It’s not juvenile, it’s fact.
Is it all about Trump?
Does it matter a damn that he is such a perverse narcissistic, mendacious and murderous character?
Not really.
I say that as one who puts a lot of stock in humility, honesty and a peaceful disposition.
Because we are looking not so much at Donald Trump as at the progress of an empire which transcends the personality of the man at its head.
The US has passed its peak as a military power. Despite using massive force against vastly outgunned and outnumbered opponents it has failed to secure victory in any of its recent wars.
While still nominally the world’s leading economy it has also been eclipsed as an economic power. The manufacturing industries of other nations are able to produce goods more efficiently than the US. That is the cause of the US’s present problems, and the reason for the reciprocal tariff campaign.
There is some logic to Trump’s tariff response, but it depends on his ability to impose a new discipline on the American people. His case against fentanyl is merely representative but still real. It fits with J D Vance’s insistence that the American working class must learn to do without the cheap baubles flooding into the country from foreign factories. Vance, the author of “Hillbilly Elegy”, knows that to restore American industry it is necessary to reform the American working class by re-establishing the virtues of industry, thrift, frugality, sobriety and honesty. To manage that it is helpful to have the support of evangelical religion, even though Trump himself does not have a single religious bone in his body.
However the reformation of the American working class, in itself a formidable challenge, is still only half the picture. It is also necessary to reform the American capitalist class, and that Trump cannot directly attempt because he himself is a case study in everything that is wrong with American capitalism. He has never produced anything. He is a hedonist who has only run gambling dens and therefore is representative of the very culture which Vance rightly wants to eliminate from American society. All that Trump can think to do is make it easier for US producers to ramp up manufacturing by imposing protective tariffs. Yet with the best will in the world and with all the protective tariffs US capitalists can achieve nothing without the broad support of a willing US working class.
Trump is doing all he can do. Tilt the playing field and hope that American capital and labour between them will do the rest. It may be a forlorn hope. America would have more reason for optimism if its leader personally represented the values which he wants to instill in the working class.
When you think about it, New Zealand’s present problems are not so different to those of the US. It also has a capitalist class which has given itself over to hedonism along with a substantial section of the working class. Like the US it also has de-industrialized, it has a chronic current account deficit and it has attempted to use mass immigration as a way to stop the rot with no positive result. Like the US it is led by a head of government whose religion is no more than an affectation.
Let’s hope New Zealand can get its own act together and abandon its alliance with the US before catastrophe strikes.