Liam Dann quietly packs away the Green Shoots champagne
Economic optimism is easy when it’s cost-free. It’s harder when the numbers catch up.
Well, well, well.
Now.
The “Green Shoots” narrative
You will remember last year NZ Herald Economist Liam Dann was writing that the recovery was here, that National’s green shoots of recovery had worked and that free market Capitalism wins again…
Pop the bubbly, the economic recovery is here (finally) – Liam Dann
NZ Herald
…yeah.
Walking it back
Well, perhaps those green shoots of recovery were actually the green snot of desperation because barely two months after popping the champagne, Liam is walking it all back…
Gold rush, AI boom, inflation: What Trump turmoil means for Kiwi investors – Liam Dann
- Gold prices have soared 90% in the past year.
- Tech stocks and AI optimism drive the S&P 500 to record highs, despite geopolitical chaos.
- Inflation remains a concern, with New Zealand interest rates expected to rise in September. NZ Herald
…well, well, well.
So November last year the green shoots of recovery were here, come January and Liam is scrambling for excuses why it’s all failing.
Luxon promised growth, growth, growth and all we’ve had are culture war revenge fantasies masquerading as social policy.
Nicola Willis is such a wide eyed free market acolyte (she was previously on the NZ Initiative Board ffs), that she believes as a matter of faith that if you cut State expenditure, the market steps in and does it cheaper.
Why the free market playbook no longer works
These free market economic dynamics work well when you have large population density to generate the competitiveness, but NZ is 3 enormous and sparsely populated Islands and we have always required the State to be the 40% foundation stone.
The decision early in 2024 to destroy the infrastructure pipeline with the construction industry has generated a cascade failure inside the economy as tens of thousands with skills have fled for Australia.
National have mutilated the economy with their ideological vandalism.
The debt wall
Bernard Hickey makes this point…
The Luxon-Willis doctrine for the economy is to repeat the recipe adopted by both National and Labour Governments after recessions since 1990. They have constrained growth in Government spending to reduce public borrowing in the expectation that this will help interest rates fall even further. In turn, this was designed tempt households and businesses to step forward and replace debt-funded Government stimulus with private stimulus for the economy in the form of spending, investment, employment and wage growth funded with mortgages and business or farming loans.
It worked in the wake of the 1990/91, 1997/98, 2007/08 and 2020 recessions because firstly businesses (1991-2000 & 2002-08) and then households (especially from early 2000s onwards) were able to reinvest profits and/or borrow significantly more to pump extra money through the economy and fire up growth in consumer spending and house-buying and building.
That increase in household debt was possible and encouraged through the early 2000s as banks unshackled from lending and capital controls increased household debt from 60% of disposable income in 1990 to almost 180% by 2009. Since 2013, the Reserve Bank has restricted household borrowing through Loan to Value Ratio (LVR) and now Debt to Income (DTI) Ratio controls to reduce financial stability risks.
The Kaka
…State cut backs so the private sector can step up doesn’t work like it did in the past because private debt is so high now!
So, why the surprise?
Apparently this is all news to Liam Dann who seems genuinely surprised at how bad things are getting.
That is telling in of itself.
The wastewater plant is there it just burnt down and the council is taking forever to rebuild .Nothing to do with the Government.
3 new schools open this year .
It is a shame about the unemployed but from the poll results it seems that a majority are happy with how the countryvis being run and can see that jobs will come with the promiaed rebound
They genuinely think we’re mentally retarded.
I am in a good financial situation. And my money is going into index funds- index funds investing in China, and Vietnam, and a small fraction into those investing in Australian companies. Why would anyone invest into a NZ run by these traitors?
Why does NZ have so many RW ‘so called’ Journalists? Why are they forever trying to brain-wash us with their wishful thinking? If Liam wishes to kowtow to this disgraceful, inept, bumbling CoC then go for it but we don’t want to know his personal preferences! Face it RW suckers, there are NO GREEN SHOOTS. How could they exists with a CoC with no direction, still sticking to their already failed economic path and only there for the greedy. Too bad about the homeless on the streets [out of sight out of mind] or those who have lost jobs and are unable to pay their bills! Luxon’s days are numbered. And please Luxon stop pretending you are a Christian – there is nothing Christianly about you or your sadistic colleagues. You are a FAKE.
Well said Patrize!
It is sad that there are people that do not want the country to do well so their personnal hate campaign for this Government can continue.
I admit that now I am retired so do not travel out of Christchurch much but this town is pumping .New homes ,new infrastructure (missing a new wastewater though) low unemployment, busy malls so perhaps I am getting a false feel for the state of the Nation .
I think you must be.
Interesting how you have all the infrastructure for many new people without the wastewater infrastructure. That’s quite important and you’d think it ought to have come first, wouldn’t you?
How about schools?
Around here it’s schools and roads that are sadly missing.
Wasting time, sitting in traffic is a daily event for most.
And to think this was a prime minister’s electorate at one time. What did we get?
Precious little. 25 years of no planning for lots of immigrants is causing a huge headache all over town.
You mistake your earthquake rebuild as progress but it’s just catching up really.
This clown ignores the fact that anyone working class is lucky to be able to buy in anywhere as close as Rolleston.
It has been proven time and time again that Trevor as a source of information is unreliable.
It is so sad that he believes the country is doing well based on the Christchurch rebuild when we have record unemployment rates, but it doesn’t affect Trevor because he is retired. It doesn’t affect him when in Hamilton, a teenager applies for a job at a retail store when over 400 applicants apply. Trevor doesn’t need to buy school uniforms and cover the amount of time needed for parents to take time off work to cover school holidays. Trevor doesn’t need to worry about having to pay record electricity costs.
He is much of the Luxon mold, I’m retired, wealthy and I’m sorted. Screw everyone else, the country’s doing well. Trevor lives in a little blue bubble.
Trevor’s idiocy that people don’t want the country to do well exposes his complete lack of empathy to those struggling because of how ill this country has become under this coalition government. We don’t need people like Trevor in this country as they are part of the massive problem we have.
Trevor, you do realize the unemployment rates is up to a record high @ 5.4% not exactly a very good reflection of our current government, who you continue to endorse. Now if people can’t get work how do they survive?
‘low unemployment, ‘
Trevor, you fossilised fuckwit, unemployment nationally is now 5.4 percent. The last time we had this many people out of work was in 2015.
Given that Willis is following the same austerity measures of Ruth Richardson we can expect an eventual return to the 1991 peak of 11.2 percent when the National Government responded to the needs of the people they had impoverished by cutting welfare benefits.
‘The leopard does not change its spots, nor the Ethiop his skin.’ Nor a Tory bitch her cruelty.
You are allowed to be blind and ignorant Trevor. You are allowed to ignore facts in favour of what you imagine, you are allowed to have a one track mind that only follows right hand turns to Luxon’s anus but you really overdo it.
if we hate the government it is because it has thrown away all my father and grandfather’s generations fought for. A fair and just society where British migrants could escape the inequality of their class system and prosper in a way they could not in the shithole they came from.
Nobody expected them to turn and spit on the people who helped them.
RESTORE STATE SOCIALISM IN AOTEAROA! DEATH TO CAPITALISM! Make it compulsory for all National Party supporters to live on marmite sandwiches!
yes you are getting a false view .I note you speak about new homes but point out the waste water is forgotten .Clearly when Key and jabba the hut decided what needed to happen they forgot all the bellow ground stuff .Soon be like Wellington with unplanned fountains every where .
We do want the country to do well Trevor, which is why we say what we do.
At the moment, it’s not doing well and you, apparently, think that’s fine. Then, you chastise us for saying it’s not fine.
You fail to see the problems everywhere because you are not affected by them so therefore think they don’t exist.
‘It is sad that there are people’ who refuse to admit to what is so blindingly obvious to those of us who think and know about the various problems, some of which Corrupt Gnat mentions. There are plenty more.
This willful ignorance and blind acceptance of the present set-up is getting tedious.
I suggest you get out of Chch for a few weeks and ask around.
Chch-ites were very quick to tell Aucklanders after the earthquake, that we had no idea what you were going through and were saying we were sick of hearing you all moaning. Nothing could have been further from the truth. No-one tried to minimise your difficulties, ever.
It would be nice to think you could scrape together some empathy now, when other parts of the country, are doing it hard, and not because of a natural event but because of incompetent and vindictive governing.
It’s called walking a mile in someone else’s shoes. You need a walk!
Most work about 40 to 50 years . A person would be lucky to go through that period without being made redundant or apply for a job that you do not get, be pasted over for a promotion due to age, race or not fitting in. It is how you deal with them that sorts out the real winners and losers. Having gaps in your CV is more expected now and not a sign you are a poor employee.
Those unemployed can take heart that as always happens the tide has turned and work is out there .It may not be the job of your dream but my suggestion is take it and earn money while you keep looking and keep learning.
Trevor says:
‘My suggestion is take it and earn money while you keep looking and keep learning.’
If we are down to suggestions here is one Trevor. Go fuck yourself.
Not many people expect to walk into ‘dream jobs’. They never did. If you should happen to get a dream job, it’s after years of working your way up. Most people go thru their working lives doing ordinary jobs that could never be described as dreamy. So, they HAVE accepted jobs and they WORK and EARN money and hope to improve themselves but it doesn’t always happen.
If their efforts resulted in a home of their own, they might be happy.
We’re at the stage where there are streets and streets of rental properties. Whole suburbs virtually. Almost no-one is buying the home they live in.
You are talking about what we did 40 years ago. It’s not what happens now.