Labour needs to hold its nerve and keep open any option that beats this terrible Government without needing Winston

New Zealand’s next election may hinge on MMP arithmetic, Māori electorates, and overhang seats. If Labour wants to replace this Government, it cannot afford to close doors before voters even get to the ballot box. Strategy, not purity, wins under proportional representation.

Labour’s Coalition Calculus Under MMP

Labour leader Chris Hipkins quells claims of internal disagreement over Te Pāti Māori

Labour leader Chris Hipkins is dampening down claims of internal disagreement over working with Te Pāti Māori, with his own MPs’ comments adding confusion.

Hipkins has repeatedly refused to rule either in or out whether Labour would consider forming a government with Te Pāti Māori – which in November ousted two of its own MPs – saying it needed to show it could work together before working with others.

That’s despite no poll this term showing Labour could form a government without Te Pāti Māori’s support.

“I’m absolutely confident in the conversations I’ve had with all of our MPs that we’re all on the same page around setting that out closer to the election,” he said on Tuesday.

However, Labour’s Māori campaign chair Willie Jackson indicated the gulf between the parties was more to do with policy.

“Look, they’ve got a number of extreme views. The prison view’s an extreme view,” he said, when asked what would need to change before the parties could work together.

RNZ

Why Closing the Door on Te Pāti Māori Would Be Strategic Suicide

Now Winston is race baiting with a referendum on dismantling the Māori Electorates, Labour needs to hold its nerve and keep open any option that beats this terrible Government without needing Winston and that means leaving te door open to whatever remains of te Pati Māori after the election.

Let the Voters Decide — Especially Under Overhang

‘The voters will decide’, needs to be Labour’s position especially when the election could be decided by who ever gains the MMP overhang.

The Winston Problem Labour Cannot Ignore

Labour needs friends, closing option off dooms them to a NZF/Green/Labour Government where Winston will demand Prime Minister for 18 months.

Under MMP, arrogance loses elections. Strategy wins them. If Labour wants to replace this Government, it must remember that proportional representation rewards flexibility, not purity. Leave the door open. Let voters decide. And don’t hand Winston Peters the leverage he’s banking on.