IMF – 15% chance of global economic meltdown

Global economy in ‘perilous phase’, IMF says

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has painted a grim picture of the outlook for the global economy over the next few years.

Its latest World Economic Outlook said global economic growth would bottom out at 2.8% this year before rising to 3% in 2024.

The rate of inflation would decrease globally, but more slowly than expected, from 8.7% in 2022 to 7% this year and 4.9% in 2024.

…that was the ‘good’ news. Here’s the bad news…

”A sharp tightening of global financial conditions–a ‘risk-off’ shock– could have a dramatic impact on credit conditions and public finances especially in emerging market and developing economies, with large capital outflows, a sudden increase in risk premia, a dollar appreciation in a rush toward safety, and major declines in global activity amid lower confidence, household spending, and investment.”

He said, in that sort of severe scenario, global GDP per capital could come close to falling, an outcome the IMF estimated had probability of about 15%.

“We are therefore entering a perilous phase during which economic growth remains low by historical standards and financial risks have risen, yet inflation has not yet decisively turned the corner. More than ever, policymakers will need a steady hand and clear communication.

…15% chance of a drop in GDP if financial markets meltdown.

Good to know.

The argument the IMF Wonks put forward here is that corporations have price gouged so much that they can afford demands for crumbs from the workers in wage rises, and that once the workers are bought off by those crumbs inflationary pressures will ease which seems remarkably optimistic in terms of wage demands from a desperate workforce and the fact that most mainstream economists have over estimated global growth and under estimated inflation.

This is an acknowledgement that an economic recession is coming and the technocrats are arguing amongst themselves over how severe it might be.

There is a tsunami of inflation erupting around the world as the baseline price for everything jumps as the West move just-in-time-supply chains to just-in-case supply chains.

What is exacerbating this is the war in Russia and Ukraine because both those countries are base ingredient trading powers.

Exacerbating that is a climate change environment that is interrupting the agricultural cycle as well as causing damage that can’t be repaired in time for the next extreme weather event.

Exacerbating that is the $25Trillion Central Banks printed to stave off the Global Recession which are all now propping up property and stock market bubbles in a late stage Capitalism Economic cycle.

House prices are sliding and will soon implode.

The enormous speculative debt will force first time home owners out of their homes.

Wait for the corporate banks and their begging bowls carried in on the back of homeless children crying out for bail outs.

The Black Swans aren’t just circling Comrades, they’re in the uber on their way over.

Everything since 2008 has been a building speculative bubble made possible by lowest cost capitalism via China’s manufacturing work force. Those global labour supply chains have ruptured and as Central Banks are forced to continue raising rates to choke off hyper inflationary pressures, those parts of the financial world using lower interest rate dynamics to trade will implode under the weight of the debt.

Factor in how AI Chatbot is estimated to cause 300million job losses as the skill base of many are made as meaningless as knitters when the loom was invented.

The savagery of bust and boom Capitalism is coming and she be a ruthless Mofo.

With the looming economic implosion upon us, we need clear guidelines.

1: No bank bail outs except for KiwiBank – These Bank fucks led us here, fuck them a thousand times if it all goes belly up and they need bail outs! Rule one is no bank bail outs!

2: Help owner occupier first time home owners – Kiwibank should be prepared to step in and take any owner occupier first time home buyers off other banks to prevent mortgagee sales, but fuck the speculators. They should all be forced to sell.

3: No corporate bail outs. NONE!

4: Continue to fund universal services that save people real money each week: Free Public Transport, free school breakfasts & lunch, 30% stakeholder role in smashing up Supermarket Duopoly to force down prices alongside GST off food and vegetables.

5: No corporate bail outs. NONE!

…I swear to the little baby Jesus, I’m going to lose my shit if Grant starts bailing banks, speculators and corporations out while ordinary people suffer.

The Left need to be kinder to individuals and crueler to Corporations.

People will not understand why Adrian Orr, a technocrat they never voted for, is going to burn the economy to save the economy. The disconnect between ‘this is good for the nation but shit for you’ will become detached from reality in the same way the Trans debate, antivax debate and the pineapple on pizza debates have become.

For the record pineapple has to be on a pizza and anyone who disagrees is a pizza fascist.

Look folks, Economic Armageddon is a coming and we best brace for impact.

If the Left can not provide the intellectual grunt to push for Universal Left Economic Solutions, if all we can do is champion identity, then we will have failed the people.

Comrades – Your enemy isn’t a woman who says stupid shit about Trans people in a public park, your enemy are the Banks, Oil Companies, Billionaires and Property Speculators who continue to pillage this country while we are bickering over the narcissism of petty difference!

 

 

 

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