As TDB warned, if the Māori Party are only focused on political stunts that alienate middle NuZilind, Labour could cut a deal with NZ First…
NZ First backs Labour’s bill on illegal wage theft
NZ First broke away from coalition partners ACT and National to vote with Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori in support of a the member’s bill when it was at committee stage on Wednesday.
…I think there are 3 things that are important politically right now.
1 – The Polls are turning against this deeply unpopular Government and there is a real chance this could be a one term Government. Post Covid bitterness drove voters to elect 3 Parties without fully comprehending how extreme the policy platform would be and as it dawns, voters are retreating in alarm.
2- The Māori Party signalling they are moving from voice of opposition to considering how they would work in a Government.
3 – Political stresses between NZF and ACT could trigger an early election as the Economy tanks.
The rumour machine is working over time behind the scenes that NZF are deeply concerned about the level of cuts looming in the next Budget, so much so that they are eyeing up their options.
There are issues coming up that could trigger a snap election.
Next month, Winston will announce his plans to save Kiwirail and the Ferry deal. He will want an investment of $3billion and for the asset to be firmly in NZ ownership which ACT will point blank refuse to accept which will set the stage of immense friction between the two in the lead up to the May 31st transfer of power between Winston and Seymour which dovetails with the end of the Treaty Principles select committee and the Budget.
NZF will force economic sovereignty to the forefront against Seymour and manufacture it into a virtue and test the waters for a snap election based on that friction.
The next budget will shock people at the scope of the cut backs and Winston will piggy back on that alongside his infrastructure economic sovereignty shtick.
The attack on migrant Green MP’s is part of this and will be used to argue Greens shouldn’t be allowed at the table in any new Government.
I think there are 5 paths to victory for the NZ Left in the next election.
Path 1: The dream – Labour + Green Majority Government
With Labour on 33, there is a real possibility that they could hit 36 and with a 12 Green, could be a one seat majority. This would give the Greens enormous say over Policy and would be the dream outcome for Left voters who have yearned for a Labour led Government genuinely influenced by Left wing policy.
Path 2: The ZB Fear – Labour + Greens minority Government with supply + confidence from Māori Party
A Labour/Green majority is the hope, but a far more likely outcome is that the math goes Labour + Green + TPM. In this scenario TPM stand outside the Government for specific policy wins in return for supply and confidence. This scenario will be painted by the Right as the Māori tail wagging the New Zealand Dog and be sold as the end of Western Civilisation as we know it.
Path 3: The most likely outcome – Labour + Greens + TPM coalition Government
Mike Hosking’s worst nightmare. In this scenario the Māori Party join Labour and Greens to form a Government with the Treaty at its heart.
Path 4: The conservative Labour win – Labour + Green minority Government with supply and confidence from NZF
The conservative elements of Labour are deeply suspicious of the Māori Party and fear being too close to them will drive bigoted voters away from voting Labour. In this scenario, Labour cut a deal with Winston for Supply and Confidence that gives him a Ministerial position (probably Foreign Affairs) while bullying the Greens into agreeing to screw over the Māori Party and alienate them from Government.
Path 5: The Ultimate – Labour + Green Majority Government with NZF and TPM partners
In this scenario Labour and Greens have the majority, but invite TPM and NZF in regardlessly. This is the John Key outcome whereby Labour have NZF to their right and TPM to their left and can tack between each one to get policy through.
NZF will be eyeing up their polling, they are just overing over the threshold and if a snap election could bolster them above that 5%, they may well play that card to ensure another 3 years in power rather than only 18 months more.
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National have to go. And the minority parties have too many extremists. However myopic and divisive the Nats may appear to be, the irrational anti-white anti-colonialist dynamic is very societally damaging, is on the wane globally, emanates from the minor parties in New Zealand, and needs to be dumped asap.
Labour and NZ First could work, with the former benefitting from the latter having seasoned experienced politicians who know this country, know our history, and not given to secret agendas.
Costello has been a disappointment as Min for Seniors, an elderly neighbour never heard back from her on quite an important issue, but by and large NZ First are well-informed and good debaters, and I’d go Labour again if Labour worked in tandem with them.
As an ex-mainlander, I am personally very pissed off withe demise of the once-excellent railway network which linked the islands from top to bottom, and the ferry debacle is as inexcusable as the crumbling health service impacting so cruelly on those most in need of it. The dumbed down education system could be regarded as sinister, and certainly socially debilitating, and this is an issue which Peters addressed pre-election while the Nats dithered around like drunken maiden aunts at a family funeral.
Next week could be a good time to call for a snap election, or the week after.
I broadly agree with much of what you write, however
What on earth do you mean by claiming NZF are “ not given to secret agendas”? Shane Jones is all the evidence one needs to determine that they are corrupt AF.
I’d love for these bag of CoC be a less than one term government.
Why the actual f would you not support that bill? What a joke. Both National and ACT gave feeble responses
Are these really paths or are they possible outcomes?
#6. Don’t forget the Labour + NZFirst Coalition with Green C&S. How likely is that deal?
“Winston …his infrastructure economic sovereignty shtick”. Is it a shtick or is he a nation building true believer in economic sovereignity?Back in the nineties he wanted every citizen to be given a $60k to be put in a kiwisaver type sovereign wealth fund. He’s completely at odds with Act’s give away the assets to the Atlas network or National’s China Public/National Mates Private partnerships.
If Luxon continues with the appalling leadership and Winston is a statesman on China and then comes up with brilliant Ferry Deal could he get the public support to change horses. How much do Labour and the Greens want to protect people from NAct? Can Labour and the Greens eat the biggest dead rat so the kids don’t have to eat slop at school? Instead of Winston standing down from deputy PM in favour of Seymour the left could make him PM and save the nation! 31 May.
I like option 4, because my favorite political moment on TV was watching Hoskings choking on a dead rat while he announced the NZF would support Labour, not National in 2017.
Despite the polls, I don’t believe, unless things get really bad, that Labour can win back Auckland with Chippie still there. He stood on the P of Truth every day with Jacinda during the 2nd Auckland lockdown. And he still has no new ideas outside of taking gst off bananas.
Peter Chippie, a chip off Black Rock, and WEF tinted, who forgot he said he’d knock on the doors of the non-jabbed, and who supported women’s voices being viciously silenced at Albert Park, has to go.
The Left are not capable of governing that should be obvious to everyone.
Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha v ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha your processor is corrupted again which is obvious to everyone.
Let’s invent a new game called “Bob the Knobhead” which consists of making sweeping assertions without even mounting a coherent argument to justify them. The purpose is to piss off people you don’t like. Here are some starters for 5:
– The Right are not capable of acting ethically
– The Right are economically illiterate and wedded to dead economic ideas that are a perversion of neoclassical economics which is in itself a travesty consisting mostly of mathematised right-wing ideology
– The Right always lie their way into power
– Supporters of the Right are mostly stupid and dangerous
This is a piss-easy game Bob. That fact that you seem to get so much enjoyment from it is a bit alarming – are you OK and can we do anything to help?
The Maori Party (as the sole left-wing party in Parliament) are quite capable of governing.
Could well happen. Hipkins is strongly committed to not doing anything good, so he could well look to go with Peters and the Greens over anyone actually left wing like the Maori Party.
At a guess it could be as recently as October 2025 or rather One year out from when is supposed the usual general election.
For sure there will even be some One Term casualties in the next election because people have lost faith with the supposedly MP for their electorate eg Paulo Garcia.
I don’t foresee Luxon being prime minister by the end of this year. He has proven to have a Failed Track Record in regards to management and leadership. He is treating being prime minister of country like being a CEO of an airline.
Hipkins for all his faults and mistakes is showing himself as being a better leader and manager than Luxon could ever aspire to. Luxon looks more of a Weakling and a Coward because he is ONLY focused on being addressed as a prime minister. For Ego to play such a major part in his life shows him up for being Inept.
I think Labour, the Greens and TPM would become a force to be reckoned with. Yes mistakes have been made but at least unlike the All Utter Perfection Upon the Planet that are ACT, NZ First and National; Labour, the Greens and TPM admit mistakes have been made.
National, ACT and NZ First have No/Zero Concept of admitting they are Human and have made mistakes and some pretty big bloody blunders. But on Their Heads be It whenever the election is called and dated.