HMNZS Manawanui: As stupid as it sounds it just ploughed straight into the reef

My last post on the continuing saga of the ill-fated HMNZSLGBTQ Manawanui included the shock realisation:

As stupid as it sounds… did they just plough straight into the reef!?

All the information pointed to human error, incompetence. In few words the Court of Inquiry has concluded the same thing in their interim report. Defence Minister Judith Collins stood behind Rear-Admiral Golding like a most unamused House Dean dragging the Head prefect out for a scolding at their press conference. This was at the Friday shit-drop hour of maximum unaccountability. She crashes Golding’s press conferences hoping none of it will stick to her – it’s all on his docket.

Collins has studiously, eerily, Orwellianly avoided officially confessing to the loss of the ship. Collins has made no statement on the official ministerial www.beehive.govt.nz website that the Manawanui disaster ever occurred. Look at her Defence portfolio releases and we find nothing, no mention of the Navy having sunk their own ship. There is no political ownership whatsoever from Collins. Playing a fantasy game pretending it didn’t happen.  A whole Court of Inquiry convened and no mention of it in any ministerial statement on the Beehive website.

The most serious thing about her is her devotion to her unintentional César Romero tribute act…

…but apart from skittish Joker energy what does she bring to the Defence portfolio? She has her ship sink, launch an operation to salvage it and she isn’t reporting in writing on any of it or even acknowledging it happened online. To use an analogy she can relate to given her reported regard of Ernst Rommel as the person she most admired – did Doenitz ever try to not report on the Bismark sinking? To just do a press conference and pretend it’s all a routine operational matter that a sixth of the Navy just sunk and leave it at that, no need for any statement or announcement, just join in the Rear-Admiral’s press conference and it’s all his fault and on his record – not hers. Just refuse to record it. Imagine what is next: losing an airforce plane and she won’t acknowledge that either? Lose an Army base and no mentions? The Houthi could take over Defence HQ, but would it ever be mentioned on the minister’s Beehive statements?

Utter humiliation has been sustained regardless, there seems no point in shirking it.  Collins personally cyber stalking commenters on social media as the rest of her comms team wail in a crying circle was the stand-out feature of her last presser when she recounted how she was dealing with the crisis. The problem was rando’s laughing at us – not a sunk ship. We can surmise from their mathematically-challenged timeline that the same crew are all over this release. All the flubs and the vagueness is undermining confidence in the process.

 

From my previous post on this

How did it happen?

Tom Sharpe in the Telegraph who “as the commanding officer of the last Royal Navy ship to nearly sink – that was HMS Endurance, a ship with many similarities to Manawanui, in 2008 – [has] views.” Sharpe was referenced by an irate Dr Gavin Ellis in his rather hostile blog that was highly critical of myself and other NZ media in our speculations. I think he was quite unfair, and will go through Sharpe’s grounding scenarios to flesh it out.

[Sharpe] said there were only a few ways a ship could run aground, and listed them:

1. You don’t know where you are on the chart through human or system-induced navigational error.
2. You do know, but the chart is wrong.
3. You know where you are and the chart information is correct but conditions (wind, tide etc) overwhelm your ability to hold position.
4. You suffer an engineering defect and the subsequent loss of control sees you run aground.
5. “Showboating”
6. Deliberately running aground

“All initial indications in the case of Manawanui point to a loss of propulsion/control as the primary cause.”

[…]

It is most likely 1 or 4. The possibility of hitting something in the unsurveyed part doesn’t make sense given the other facts. There is a “moon pool” for divers but I can’t see how this can malfunction to flood the vessel.  The flags denoting a survey is interesting – if it had finished surveying the flags would have been changed.

[…]

As stupid as it sounds… did they just plough straight into the reef!?

Did they fucking what! And I think we can now add a seventh scenario:

7. The auto-pilot is on, you fucking dummy!

Their official timeline from the NZDF news release on Friday (29/11/2024) makes for chaotic reading. It is a short and very sloppy account – containing less information than what has been previously released. That’s right – lessinformation! The timeline doesn’t make sense and I think is just plain wrong and in parts obviously mistaken – stupid mistakes. It is also at odds with the earlier declared facts from NZDF as we shall see from my chronology to compare it with. First the new timeline from the Court of Inquiry interim report and then my comments.

 

[NZDF] Timeline:

• On Saturday 5 October 2024, HMNZS Manawanui was conducting survey operations on the southern side of Apia, Samoa in a strong breeze of up to 25 knots and moderate swell.
•  The survey was conducted in a box-shaped area, running east to west in survey lanes that start on the outside, working inwards.
• At about 6.15pm, the ship’s crew attempted a routine turn to starboard, initially to a course of 340 degrees, within the survey area, as part of a turn. The crew attempted to turn off the 340 degree course to starboard towards an easterly course but the ship did not respond as intended.
• Shortly after, Manawanui left the approved survey area, and in an effort to stop the ship, the crew conducted further actions that they believed should have resulted in the ship essentially braking.
• Manawanui did not slow or stop, and instead the ship started to accelerate towards the reef, grounding for the first time at or about 6.17pm at a speed of more than 10 knots.
• The ship then travelled around 635 metres (400 yards) before becoming stranded, grounding multiple times along the way.
• Full control of Manawanui’s propulsion system was not regained until 10 minutes later, at 6.27pm, when the ship’s autopilot was disengaged. The inability to turn the ship to an easterly direction from the 340 degree course and stop the ship is attributed to the ship being in autopilot mode.
•  Unsuccessful attempts were then made to manoeuvre the ship off the reef.
• Manawanui was brought to emergency stations after the grounding, and searches were conducted to check for damage.
• No damage or flooding was detected inside the ship. However, stability assessments made after the grounding indicated Manawanui was no longer stable.
• At approximately 6.46pm, about 30 minutes after the initial grounding, the decision was made to abandon ship.
• The timeliness of the decision to abandon ship and to keep Manawanui’s generators running contributed to the successful abandonment process and likely prevented serious injuries or death.
• The ship suffered a series of catastrophic fires after being abandoned, before capsizing and sinking on the morning of Sunday 6 October.

 

First note the mistake in saying “the southern side of Apia” as if Apia is the name of the island – Apia is the town, Upolu is the island. Such a fundamental geographic mistake shows whoever has prepared this does not know their geography. The mistake is insulting to Samoa. It is a stupid mistake. If that wayward barge at Westport was owned by Samoans and they said Westport was on the ‘Western side of Christchurch’ would that not be a little bit insulting?

Second thing to note is “box-shaped area” comment and compare it to remarks from Golding at the press conference – there was a deviation in the route charted.

Thirdly, the purpose of the turn needs explanation. Must have been an oddly small box-shaped area to make a second tight turn – essentially doubling back. Why? Golding made a comment about a “holiday” gap that needed to be filled in. The question is why was there a gap? – I’m guessing to be consistent with everything else that it was a gap left due to incomptence. One mistake deserves another.

Fourthly, the further action taken by the crew to stop the vessel probably includes dropping the anchor but it appears for some reason they do not want to admit this. It is infuriating why they would try to hide this fact – there’s photos from divers of the ship’s anchor lolling around on the seabed with the chain trailing off. Why are they playing games to conceal these things?

Fifthly, the time of grounding “for the first time” is now given as 6:17pm when they had claimed it was 6:46pm up until this point.

Sixthly, “the ship then travelled around 635 metres (400 yards) before becoming stranded” is an interesting mistake indeed. I immediately knew that 635 metres is nothing like 400 yards (it’s 694 yards). Whoever put this error-riddled nonsense together had seemingly made a foolish assumption in conversion. Golding referred to 400 yards in the presser for what it’s worth. The sequence implies after the first grounding the ship continued on for 635 metres, but if we look at the map there is a big discrepancy and it is not reconcilable for that to have happened because the distance quoted is too far. Even if it was 400 metres it would mean the first grounding took place right at the very edge of the base of the reef where the chart says it is still deep enough for the ship to pass over. Something is not correct beyond just the metric to imperial failure. There is something being left unsaid on this point – and what is being said is being said very poorly.

Seventhly, it took ten minutes after being grounded for someone to turn off the auto-pilot. Oh how priceless the expressions on the faces of the officers on the bridge when someone must have yelled out that the auto-pilot had been on… the whole time. And the penny would have dropped at that moment – the whole panicked mess was completely their own doing. Where is the voice recording of this? Yes, New Zealand, it’s moments like these you need Minties.

Eighthly, they report no flooding, but the NZ Herald story I have below in my sequence references Samoan authorities as being informed at 7:19pm she was taking in water and sinking.

Ninthly, they say that 6:46pm was the time the abandonment decision was made. This time had previously been the time they said she had grounded. However, is the decision to abandon the same thing as the order to abandon? There might be more hanky panky going on here with their changing nomenclature and times because they had previously claimed 7:52pm was when the order to abandon ship was given. The major events seemed to have taken place about an hour before previously stated.

Tenthly, a lot has been made of keeping the generators running – as if it were somehow heroic or genius. Just leaving something going hardly ranks up there with Scotty saving the Enterprise. And besides, leaving the generators on may well have contributed to the out of control fires that occurred before it capsized.

I have put my chronology (with sources) from the earlier post below so you can see how they have changed from their timings above.

 

Chronology – from previous post:

Samoa local time [sources in brackets]

Saturday 05/10/2024

6:24pm Sunset, twilight begins.

6:42pm Civil twilight ends.

6:45pm AIS location activated by HMNZS Manawanui. [Marinetraffic.com]

6:46pm Manawanui grounded. [NZDF]

6:58pm Samoan authorities receive call from Rescue Co-ordination centre (RCCNZ) in Wellington alerting them of distressed vessel. Samoa maritime unit dispatched immediately. [NZ Herald]

7:07pm Nautical twilight ends

7:19pm RCCNZ calls again to say ship will be abandoned “onto life rafts due to the deteriorating situation with Manawanui taking in too much water and was sinking.” [NZ Herald]

7:52pm Order to abandon ship given, began evacuating into lifeboats (4 life rafts, 2 RIBs). [NZDF]

8:30pm High tide (approx.)

9:30pm (approx.) Local fisherman reports Manawanui still lit up and upright, crew had abandoned it and in life rafts drifting to the West. Police, Fire and rescue boats on the scene. [RNZ]

10:54pm Cruise liner MS Queen Elizabeth arrives, but remains outside unsurveyed area. [Marinetraffic.com]

11:10pm French cable layer MS Lodbrog arrives, goes into unsurveyed area approx. 1nm West of Manawanui. [Marinetraffic.com]

Unknown pm “Initial statement” of event posted on NZDF website from Cdre Arndell: “…grounded…incident occurred Saturday evening while conducting reef survey…78 who were on board are currently in life rafts and accounted for…[RNZAF] P8 has been deployed…” [NZDF]

Unknown pm Samoa Acting PM Tuala Iosefo Ponifasio gives press conference detailing rescue efforts. Samoa Police, Fire and Emergency Services, and the Disaster Management Office in rapid response. [Samoa Observer]

Sunday 06/10/2024

Unknown am Fisherman on a rescue boat said communications between vessels and life rafts established, plan made to get everyone aboard Lodbrog began. Fisherman’s boat and 1 life raft and 1 RIB transferred some crew (11 – see below) but abandoned transfer due to rough seas, other RIB towing life rafts pulled over the reef by waves and washed up on shore. [RNZ]

1am First people rescued from life rafts. [NZDF]

2:30am Low tide (approx.)

5:16am Nautical twilight begins.

5:35am All people rescued. [NZDF]

5:41am Civil twilight begins.

6:02am Sunrise, twilight ends.

6:40am Smoke from ship, listing heavily. [Video]

6:42am Queen Elizabeth and Lodbrog leave area. [Marinetraffic.com]

7:00am (approx.) Fisherman said rescued crew transferred to larger vessels returned to shore. [RNZ]

8:30am High tide (approx.)

8:30am 2^nd statement from NZDF posted to their website: “…The 75 crew and passengers on board Manawanui have made it to safety in Samoa after the ship grounded. [NZDF]

9:00am Manawanui Capsized, sinks below waterline. [Video]

Unknown am Report: “Nafanua III rescued 18 crew, 11 were rescued by Ladbrog Cable Vessel, 10 were rescued by Ark Marine Company Ltd Vessel and 36 were rescued by S.P.P.C.S. with the assistance of S.F.E.S.A. small boats. All 75 crew members were transported to the New Zealand High Commission residence for welfare purposes.” [Samoa Observer]

12:42pm 3^rd statement from NZDF press release posted to their website: “…At this stage the exact cause of the grounding is unknown and this will need further investigation… They sailed from Devonport on 28 September and were due to return home on 1 November. “ [NZDF]

The podcast ‘What’s Happening with Shipping’ takes a skeptical view of the inquiry summary and has an excellent look at how the azipod propeller system and steering works.