GUEST BLOG: Ian Powell – Careful what you ask for Labour Party: following UK Labour not smart politics
Labour leader Chris Hipkins is presently in the United Kingdom to learn from the British Labour Party led by new Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
Although Leaders of the Opposition are entitled to an annual overseas study trip (Chris Hipkins also went to the UK last year), this one has attracted more than usual media interest,
As examples the Sunday Star Times featured two articles on 22 September. One was by political journalist Henry Cooke Hipkins learning from Starmer while the second was by Stuff National Affairs Editor Andrea Vance British help for Labour’s playbook.
Hipkins and Starmer: is the former seeking to learn from the latter really smart politics?
The context was, following the previous Labour government’s hammering in last year’s brutal electoral defeat, former prime minister Hipkins’ keenness to learn from the recent ‘landside’ victory of his British counterpart.
The official election results compiled by the BBC are reported by Politico: Official elections results.
Superficially Hipkins rationale seems perfectly logical. Afterall Labour won 412 out of the 650 seats. However there is a massive ‘but’.
A massive but…when a landslide is not a mandate
Starmer’s victory was not a popular will landslide. Instead it was a consequence of the fundamentally different electoral systems in the UK and New Zealand – ‘first past the post’ and proportional representation respectively.
The reality of Labour’s ‘landslide’ is forcefully explained by British leftwing author and commentator Richard Seymour in the online Sidecar publication (5 July): Majority yes; mandate or landslide no!
How is this for the opening of his article?
Was ever a country, in this humour, won? A majority without a mandate, and a landslide that isn’t a landslide. Labour won 64% of the seats with 34% of the vote, the smallest ever vote share for a party taking office. Turnout, estimated at 59%, was at its lowest since 2001 (and before that, 1885).
He goes on to put his analytical boot in further:
When a soggy Sunak [defeated Conservative prime minister] finally pulled the plug on his flagging, flag-bedraggled government at the end of May, every poll showed Labour with a double-digit lead, at over 40%. Sunak’s litany of unforced errors, as well as the massive funding gap between Labour and the Conservatives and the queue of businessmen and Murdoch newspapers endorsing Labour, ought to have helped keep it that way. Instead, Labour’s total number of votes fell to 9.7 million, down from 10.3 million in 2019.
Other biting observations
Among the many other of Seymour’s biting observations were:
- The Conservatives plunged from 44% to 24% while the far-right Reform UK surged from nowhere to 14% of the vote (but only four seats). The combined Tory–Reform vote, at 38%, was bigger than Labour’s share.
- Labour gains in Scotland were helped by the Scottish National Party’s unexpected implosion.
- The Greens increased their vote share from less than 3% to 7% and took four seats.
- Five new independent candidates opposing the genocide in Gaza were elected, including former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn who defeated his Labour rival in Islington North with a margin of 7,000 votes.
Other ‘non-landside’ features
There are also other ‘non-landside’ features. It is rare that a new elected government loses its own seats. But some were lost and others had their majorities slashed.
Jonathan Ashwood, who would have otherwise gone into cabinet, lost his safe seat to one of the above-mentioned independents. Wes Streeting, the health secretary, saw his majority slashed only just scrapping in by just 528 votes.
But capping all this was the slashing of Starmer’s own majority from 27,783 in 2019 (66% turnout with Conservatives in second place) to 11,572 in 2024 (54% turnout with an anti-Gaza genocide independent in second place).
What if it had been known that Labour would have got a worse popular vote in 2024 than in 2019 and that its Leader’s own majority would have dropped by so much (and that was all that was known)?
It is conceivable that Starmer would not have been elected to replace Corbyn as Leader after the 2019 election defeat.
What a difference a political system makes
The British Labour Party’s massive majority in the House of Commons simply highlights how profoundly undemocratic ‘first past the post’ is compared with proportional representation in New Zealand.
If the UK had proportional representation the combined Conservative-Reform elected MPs in 2024 would be nearly 4% more than Labour’s.
Labour would only be able to form a government in coalition with the Liberal Democrats and one other party, such as the Greens or Scottish Nationalists.
Or, to put it another way, if the UK electoral system was based on proportional representation, compared with 2024 Labour under Corbyn would have had 6% more seats in the 2017 election (and only 1% less than in 2019).
British Labour’s rightwing turn
In the 2017 and 2019 general elections Labour could fairly be called leftwing campaigning on transformational policies focussed on ‘for the many, not the few’.
When Starmer successfully stood for Labour’s leadership after the 2019 election he affirmed his continued support for this policy direction.
However, much sooner than later, there was a strong swing to the right including purging many leftwing members.
Combined with demoralisation over this dramatic shift to the right, the impact on membership has been severe.
When Jeremy Corbyn was its leader in 2019 Labour’s membership was 532,000. Under Starmer’s leadership, by the end of 2023 it had fallen by a massive 30% to 370,450.
This shift to the right was reflected in Labour’s complicity, when in opposition to the genocide in Gaza. As mentioned above this complicity also had a negative electoral outcome for Labour.
The effect of Labour’s shift to the political right was that the 2024 election was not between two main parties each of the left and the right.
Instead it was between one of the right (Labour) and the other of the hard right (Conservatives) with the third party and ‘spoiler’ being of the far-right (Reform).
Starmer’s new political friend
What might not have been anticipated is Keir Starmer’s new found political friend Giorgia Meloni who leads the far-right government (much closer to the UK’s Reform) in Italy.
Starmer is in awe of Meloni’s anti-migrant policies. This has recently come to the fore.
On 16 September two separately published articles in Euro News and The Guardianrespectively brought this out: Starmer set to contribute millions to Meloni’s anti-migrant initiative and Meloni’s anti-migrant measures.
Since taking office Giorgia Meloni’s government has introduced a number of severe anti-migrant measures such as:
- extending the amount of time people can be held in deportation detention centres to 18 months and ordering the construction of new centres; and
- enacting draconian policies against charity ships in the Mediterranean, with captains facing huge fines if they carry out more than one rescue operation at a time.
During Meloni’s first year in power, the number of people arriving in Italy by boat rose sharply, with the total reaching 125,806 in 2023, almost double that of 2022. But arrivals so far this year have dropped dramatically to 44,465.
According to figures from the International Organisation for Migration, more than 1,400 people have died or gone missing in the central Mediterranean since January.
Chris Hipkins should think about smart politics
Few people would have predicted Labour’s thrashing in New Zealand’s 2023 election when it had thrashed the National Party in 2020.
Labour became the first majority party in Parliament since the introduction of proportional representation in 1996.
Time for Labour leader Hipkins to think about smart politics
But it happened. Looking to UK Labour’s electoral success in 2024 for insights into how New Zealand Labour should approach the 2026 election is not smart politics.
Chris Hipkins should think about the political reality of this. UK Labour’s parliamentary majority is not a reflection of popular will.
Instead it is a reflection of an undemocratic electoral system. Hence, contrary to appearances, Labour’s majority has an inherent fragility within it.
If Hipkins can’t grasp this then he may as well tag on to his overseas trip a visit to Rome to catch up with Starmer’s new friend.
Ian Powell was Executive Director of the Association of Salaried Medical Specialists, the professional union representing senior doctors and dentists in New Zealand, for over 30 years, until December 2019. He is now a health systems, labour market, and political commentator living in the small river estuary community of Otaihanga (the place by the tide). First published at Political Bytes
Governments in the West usually have a lifespan of about a decade, depending on the length of the term.
It takes a bit of effort to get dumped sooner, but in New Zealand, the NZLP manage it pretty consistently.
The Conservatives got dumped after 15 years in the UK. Labour in the UK could have run a team of shop window dummies and won. There’s not much for Mister Hipkins to learn – but I hope he has/had a nice time.
I think it’s way simpler than that. Unhappiness after Covid and the mandates caused governments everywhere to get thrown out – it even caused a lot of sitting mayors in New Zealand to lost power at the last local body election.
Essentially though Labour’s policy is to wait in opposition until swing voters to get sick of the Nats – and the experience in Britain is just going to reinforce that approach.
Excellent piece thanks. My reckon is that Hipkins and Starmer will get on well. Starmer is probably further to the right than Hipkins going on Labour’s purge of sone of it’s left wing.
Hipkins is not the future. I fear the political landscape has shifted massively in NZ post-Covid and despite the corruption and it in competence of the CoC, it will be difficult to advance a socialist agenda and repair the huge damage done to NZ in 12 short months.
In any event I don’t see Hipkins leading any attempt to do that.
One only has to look at what we have here right now which is the result of Luxon taking exactly the same trip 4 years ago and coming back as a trained lier and full of hatered for the every day kiwi .Chippy could easily fall into the same trap .Why would we even consider modeling NZ on the complete fuck up that is the UK at present .?We need to go down a totally different road here as we are on a road to no where in a hurry and if Brown has his way it will be a high speed head on crash .
It is hard to believe but it seems Labour in the UK is as worse than Labour here.Already it is more unpopular than Conservatives were when they lost the election.
Any left wing party around the world you would hate, face it.
What would Chippy learn from a UK Labour party who was in opposition for 15 years?
For the past 50 years NZ has an established pattern of nine years right wing 6 years left wing.
The 30% of swinging voters eventually focus their problems on the sitting Govt and vote them out.
The incoming Government thus wins by default rather than actually offering any real policies.
Real policies are too complex for most voters so offering amazingness (with no detail) is more effective.
National has never lost after just one term so Labour has to wait till 2029 for its next turn at the helm.
So what to do between now and this time in 2028 a year out from election 2029.
A 4 year plan to discrediting the right wing by simply transfering all problems to the sitting Government.
Focus on dividing the right wing coalition.
A new left wing leadership group to gradually be put in place.
Unifying the left wing with the one aim, to overthrow National in 2029.
Winning the 2029 election is basically about being unified, promise amazingness
with no detail and let the sitting coalition destroy itself.
Essentially the only way the left can lose in 2029 is by shooting itself in the foot.
Division is certainly what the left does best.
How incredibly toxic not to offer solutions just destruction like identity politics.
@Keepcalmcarryon .
“Division is certainly what the left does best.
How incredibly toxic not to offer solutions just destruction like identity politics.”
Just like National won in 2023 .
No solutions just destruction like identity politics.
At the 2023 the right wing had one policy.
Hate the Maoris,
And as usual the White majority as they always do swarmed all over the
Hate the Maori promise like piranha and hyena on methamphetamine.
It worked under Muldoon ’75 to ’84 and under Bolger ’90-’99.
In 2023 National were so desperate to get revenge on Adern the world super star they reverted to type to gutter politics to the one policy they know always wins them power.
Maori hate.
And it worked
It always does.
As you say Division is certainly what the right wing does best.
Could it be one of the reasons labour was thrashed in 2023 was that it had an absolute majority and did nothing with it? Admittedly there was a pandemic. It did save lives and jobs/businesses. (Then all those ungrateful fucking business people turn around and voted National Law act I suspect.) But it did nothing to change the neoliberal system. A system which has for the last 40 or 50 years, completely failed ordinary working people.
I have been a regular advocate of your first sentence GS…NZ Labour squandering its once in a generation MMP majority was a genuine tragedy. Natzo/Act/NZFirst–CoC knew exactly what to do with their majority on th back of revenge voting–despite tactical differences–Go For Broke, hit hard and quick, and jeez have they what, a pack of vandals nothing less.
Nothing is safe from the dirty filthy Natzos–kids school lunches, NGOs, respite care, mental health, EVs, State Schools handed over to Charters, thousands of public servants sacked, return of semi auto fire arms, millions for the Tobacco and mining industries!
There is a chance for a come back in 2026 but Labour has to recant Rogernomics and unite with Greens and TPM.
Maybe Chippy’s spent time with Starmer already, return the Sausage’s faux-pas is a classic.
So true! But there’s even more to it than that.
The main issue facing the UK is migration numbers, both legal and illegal. The Tories promised to fix it over three election cycles but typically were too squeamish to do what was necessary. Hence the split on the right. The UK is receiving over half a million immigrants a year and its stretching both services and the culture up to and beyond breaking point.
So far Starmer is proving to be even worse than the Tories and there is major trouble brewing. I seriously doubt he and the Labour Party will last a full term in office. I don’t think the civil unrest we’ve seen so far is the last of it.
Excellent article. It points out that Labour didn’t win the election but rather the Conservatives lost it. FPTP also makes the win look much better than it was. Only 20% of eligible to voters voted for Labour and it’s what pundits call a shallow victory.
Hipkins should re-establish health as number one priority given the debacle this government has created…it would win him the election.
https://www.thepost.co.nz/nz-news/350424104/hideous-atmosphere-health-nz-staff-await-redundancy-decisions
Exactly and the only party making health and welfare a priority is THE GREENS along with ACC reform.
Wake up NZ both Labour and National/Act are two sides of the same coin.
We might assume that Hipkins is in the UK to learn ways towards winning the next parliamentary election in New Zealand, but it is also possible that he is following in the heels of his predecessors as Labour leader, Helen Clark and Jacinda Ardern, by going there to jack up a new job for himself with some Anglo-American political QUANGO. I would put my money on the latter.
TLDR: Get off the neoliberal crack pipe. Sort your world view out. Toilet doors in aircraft usually smaller than ones leading to outside of same.
If The NZ Labour Parody are intent on copy/paste policy taken from a totally dissimilar environment, could they implement the UK housing/tenancy/landlord laws and the First 12K (that’s pounds not dollars!) of personal income tax free? Didn’t think so.
Pretty much any politician thinking that the UK is like NZ just because some of their armed forces came here 200 odd years ago will need special security protection on the plane so they don’t fall out while trying to find the toilet.
The UK has a cohesive working class culture that extends further than just work, NZ doesn’t – we have a mass of wannabe CEO’s. The UK knows about the trouble they’re in and make an effort to address very uncomfortable issues, at an official level*. NZ just imagines everything is fine and ignores reality. UK culture tends toward community, NZ culture tends toward exclusion. Everything hinges on that final point: our policies reflect our ignorance of ourselves and real life. Once we stop looking at people not like ourselves as an expensive inconvenience, and open up to life, our Parties will stop being Parodies.
*I recently read a green paper (UK) trying to describe what a British Citizen believes, or is, for their education system. Amazingly, it ascended into a not unpleasant kind of administrative poetry. Meanwhile in NZ, the unemployed “aren’t doing enough”, and those suffering mental illnesses are dismissed simply as experiencing “mental distress”** and it’s “the system” (welfare) that is holding them back. From what I don’t know… neoliberal smoke, probably. Do they even have a clue, I mean at an educated level, about what happens when a person’s mind stops functioning “normally”? They reckon they’ll fix that with politics and tough love? Jesus. Glad I didn’t vote for them.
**Rishi Sunak may have (been) written a poor speech about that when he suggested mental illnesses were just the result of the “stresses of everyday life”, however, he knew that everyday life was pretty dark, and both government and business there do backflips to accommodate everyone they possibly can into work. Nothing like our context. So why he bloody fckn hell do people here have to tolerate the idiotic social prejudices of people afraid they’ll suffer a brain injury if they sit next to a downs syndrome kid on the bus, let alone invite someone into their office for a job interview?? Christ I have some stories to tell about that. Long story short, if anyone out there wants to “identify as an employer” as some sort of measure of moral or social superiority, they’d do better to join a gang… because sometimes gangs give kids sandwiches.
This has ended somewhat poorly, so I’ve leave you with this: on about the 20th of this month it was the first day of spring. Merry Christmas.
Hipkins only needs to talk to Luxon or Act or Winnie if he wants to know how to operate like the British Labour party or the US Dem party for that matter. As all of these parties put big money interests ahead of the interests of their voters, then their cultures are all very similar to each other. As it stands, NZ Labour is pretty well versed in this culture, now days also, so this is a wasted trip. He’d had been better popping in to see the Tories to understand how to better manage big-money interests rather than seeing that warmongering super-idiot Starmer.
He would be better off going to one of the Scandanavian countries where he would learn the real meaning of looking after the people .He will learn nothing from the poms as they are still in the colonisation mentallity of lets grab what we can and fill the pockets of the rich .