GUEST BLOG: Ben Morgan: Ukraine – Signals of a Russian collapse continue

ByThe Daily Blog

Last week I made risky prediction, that the Russian army is close to collapse. It was a bold statement so this week we need to see how that prediction is tracking, are there indications of whether it was correct or not?

Starting in the north with the battle for Kiev, we can see interesting trends unfolding.  In the last article the town of Obukhiv, south of Kiev was in Ukrainian hands. It was an indicator of Ukrainian offensive action and a loss for the Russians.  The town is important because holding it allows a complete encirclement of the Kiev’s west side by Russia.  

Obukhiv is still in Ukrainian hands, further the Ukrainians now hold Fastiv, Borova and Vasilykiv.  Small towns to the south and south west of Kiev.  At the start of last week all of these towns were contested by the Russians.  By holding these towns the Ukrainians control a ‘corridor’ on the west side of the Dnieper, approximately 60 km wide and centred on a main highway, the E95.

What this means from a tactical perspective can be summarised in three key observations. First, that that Ukrainians are demonstrating the ability to take the offensive locally and win.  Second, that the Ukrainians have used this capability to open a supply line into Kiev. A supply line that as now been open for about 48 hours.  Third, this activity demonstrates a level of planning and coordination on the Ukrainian side that indicates that their command structure is intact and planning a cohesive and sensible strategy.

In coming days, a key area to observe will Kiev’s western flank.  If the Ukrainians can generate sufficient combat power, which now seems likely with a large supply route open to the city it is likely that we will see the corridor widen and push north towards Makariv. 

Looking south, the Russian thrust towards Odessa has lost momentum.  Recently, Kherson fell to the Russians and after a pause, they thrust west towards Odessa, attacking two cities on the Bug River. Mykolaiv on the coast and 50 kilometres north, Voznesensk.  Obviously, the Russians had worked out that taking Kiev was going to be beyond them and by moving west along the coast of the Black Sea there was the possibility of taking Odessa and capturing a ‘Crimean Corridor’ thereby securing Crimea and Donestk, providing access to the sea and perhaps allowing a direct land route to support Transnistria.

However, both Mykolaiv and Voznesensk are now in Urkainian control.  At this time we have not seen Ukrainian offensives in this area, for instance towns or cities in Russian control being taken back but I think we should keep looking at the area between Mykolaiv in the west and the coast, Zaporizhia in the north on Dnieper and Mariupol in the east.  

Mariupol continues to be reduced with artillery fire and it will take a major offensive for the Ukrainians to re-capture it.  However, at this stage this does not seem beyond the realms of possibility in coming weeks and a number of changes in the situation contribute to this picture. At a tactical level, we are starting to get some firmer estimates of Russian casualties, the Pentagon reporting last week they estimate approximately 7000 Russian soldiers have been killed and it is likely that Russia has suffered in the region 20,000 casualties.  

The Russian invasion force was approximately 180,000 me and reaching ten percent casualties is a key threshold for military planners because it means that your force is likely to become ineffective.  Then consider where those casualties are most likely to be concentrated, likely in the frontline troops.  We have discussed the size of the Russian force before and these casualties will make a big difference on Russian effectiveness because they are simply running out people. 

Strategically, two key observations should be noted this week.  Firstly, that the Chinese have distanced themselves from supporting the war. Chinese President Xi Jinping is walking a political tightrope trying to establish China as a possible mediator but being careful not to upset either side.  This is very important because it confirms that the Chinese see this war as a lost cause for Russia. Generally, there is no margin in backing a loser.  In terms of this war China’s actions are very important, if they did choose to support Russia directly the threat of catastrophic escalation is much, much higher.

The second observation is the increasing strength of American rhetoric and action.  Last week, American diplomats forcefully warned the Chinese about intervention, President Biden also promised approximately $ 800 million dollars of ‘security’ assistance to Ukraine including; 800 Stinger anti-aircraft systems. 2,000 Javelin anti-tanks missiles, 1,000 light anti-armour guided weapons, 100 drones and lots of ammunition, body armour and helmets.  This equipment will make a huge difference to the Ukrainians and is likely already reaching front line troops.  Remember the 60-kilometre corridor leading into Kiev.

Further, President Biden called Putin a ‘war criminal’ an emotive and escalatory statement.  This statement is very interesting because if there was a significant risk of a nuclear escalation it would be unlikely for the United States President to use this type of language.  Statements like this demand that we look for the information that is not seen. What is going here?  

My observation is that America has a substantial intelligence capability and probably has very good insight into the Russian military’s communications and control systems.  Further, there exist unofficial, back-channel discussions between diplomats and generals and it seems likely that from these sources there is information that Putin may not be backed as strongly by his military as previously supposed.  Perhaps this rhetoric is a ‘dog whistle’ for those in the shadows waiting to move?

In summary since the last article, the Russian army in Ukraine has not collapsed, yet. 

But the combat indicators are pointing towards this conclusion, General Ben Hodges last week predicted the Russians have about ten days fighting left, about the end of this week.  Between their combat loses, the military reinforcement of Ukraine and Russia’s increasing isolation it seems more and more likely that this war is going to end sooner than we expect.  The next few days will be very important. 

 

Ben Morgan is a tired Gen X interested in international politics. He is TDB’s Military analyst.

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38 Comments

    1. Many thanks Kevin for the link. Again, this is completely contrary to MSM bullshit.
      Frankly, anyone who thinks the russkies are being rolled by Ukraine has there NATO blinkers on.

      1. There’s plenty of stuff via George Galloway, one of the few commentators who speaks straight and shows the unfiltered facts, warts and all.
        Glad I’m not alone in ‘not falling’ for all this insane propaganda, to justify sending money and weapons, instead of looking after the poor soles here in NZ.

        1. George Galloway, the RT Shill who has a history of selling his soul to the biggest payer. His new VERY young wife is now his paid for sidekick on RT sputnik, the man has no shame.

          1. Another old pseudo leftist apologist mouthpiece for the Assad’s, Gaddafi’s, Putins etc of the world.

  3. If Russia has been planning this occupation for since 2014, they certainly structured their military wrong. Mostly bling but no basics

    Worth a look; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KJkmcNjh_bg&t=1155s

    “I’ll leave the mil and ex-mil to comment on the strategy, operations, and tactics we’ve observed over the last week. But there’s another part to all this, and that’s that Russia may spend more on its military than Ukraine…but it also spends a bunch of that on blingy capabilities that have and now they’re paying the price. They’ve got thousands of nukes, they’ve got battlecruisers, and next gen hypersonic missiles…but they have tanks missing GPS, troops with no night vision, and an air force without the kit it needs to suppress the limited Ukrainian forces opposing them. It’s all bling, no basics, and here I spend 50 minutes calling them out on it.”

    1. Good link. Thanks.

      It could be Putin didn’t tell his generals of his intentions. It’s likely Western intelligence has fully penetrated them so he couldn’t tell his people because it would telegraph his intentions to NATO, who would react by fully arming Ukraine.

  4. Ukraine has already lost the war, Ben, the best part of their army in the East is pretty much surrounded. Next round of negotiations Russia will say agree to our terms and conditions your army will be allowed to exit west. Otherwise it is going to be obliterated.

    1. Bollocks, they’re no where near encircled …yes they are fighting on three fronts but have a huge swathe of territory to the west for supply/reinforcement. Over half of Ukraine’s regular army is intact in west where no Russian has set foot meanwhile day by day more Ukranians of the Reserves are mustering, day by day more civilians are becoming TDF/Militia Fighters. Ukraine can field a million or so before too long. Give it more time and they could muster 5million or more as every Ukrainian between 18 & 60 is eligible to be called up. Of course too many over 60 and under 18 will fight if needed plus a large contingent of female fighters as well plus all the volunteers from west will keep coming. West has more trained ex soldiers to volunteer than Russia has vassal/ally rabble for mercenaries.

      Unless Putin reveals to his people the “SMO” has failed and calls a full mobilization he can’t win quickly with the numbers he has. All he can do is bomb & shell. Only ones getting obliterated will be the Russians both militarily & economically.

      1. “Over half of Ukraine’s regular army is intact in west where no Russian has set foot”

        Not the quality half though, haha.

        Once Russia secures important East the west is sloppy seconds and can be absorbed into Poland or something, for all Putin probably cares. The western part certainly wont survive as a stand alone country.

        “Give it more time and they could muster 5million or more”

        La La Land. What are you planning to arm them with? Despite all the huff and puff about sending weapons to the Ukraine, they cant get the weapons in except ineffective fire crackers. Russia just blew a base near western Polish border sky high with a hyper sonic missile.

        All the war mongers in Washington DC are trying to do now is use Ukraine as cannon fodder, hoping to create an Imperial quagmire that might break Putin regime and even break up the Russian nation.

        Russia’s legitimate security concerns should have been acknowledged, then this conflict could have been avoided.

  5. With all due respect to Ben Morgan, but if you’re really interested in knowing about the situation in Ukraine, watch this recent interview with former US military advisor to the US president, and understand what the conflict is really all about and how Russia is handling it.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NFngc_8RiVc

  6. Mate … I use telegram to stay informed and what Russian artillery and aviation are doing is doing to these local offensives is not pretty. I don’t know where people get this idea that the RAF are losing or close to defeat when Ukraine armed forces have to hide their weapon platforms inside of cities.

  8. How are we supposed to know the truth when all we get is the Ukrainian position and that’s hardly trustworthy

    1. I cant wait for this man to explain his conclusions when Ukraine surrenders. There will be a whole lot of egg requiring scraping off faces. Question I have is why do we pay these people?

    2. Yeah. The Atlantic. like, almost as strong a source as the ingredients bix on a McHappy Meal box.

  11. I hope for everyone’s sake that you are right but the news is so tainted and propagandised these days its hard to know what is going on. It certainly looks like Mariupol is gone and Kherson and Kharkiv and a couple of others look like they may be close to being over run as well.

    If the Russians are on their way out (not sure about this) Putin will be looking to gain territory in the south and east and even the north (Chernyhiv? – the arty place? has been bombed as well) so that he goes back with some kind of victory.

    I just hope peace comes soon. The situation sucks.

  12. Thanks everyone for all the excellent links.I wonder if Ben refers to them . It would be interesting to read his response.
    I wonder if he is surprised or discouraged to find that almost no one on TDB thinks he is connected to reality.
    Perhaps he is just doing his job and knows perfectly well what the reality is.
    D J S

    1. Or perhaps Ben has a better understanding of what is actually happening than most of those commentating on here who seem to discount any reports from ‘the West’ and instead put all their stock in some obscure blogger in Tajikistan who knows a guy who knows a guy or some equally obscure retired Indian general with a handlebar moustache and a fond memories of when India was receiving Soviet military equipment and training.

      1. Perhaps;
        You can only try to get the overall picture and feed what is known over a long period of time, and assume what stories make most sense to you with all that in mind. And try to be ready to change your mind when convincing evidence alters the overall picture.
        D J S

        1. Ive been wondering about the cognitive dissonance of people who become too partison to see what is obvious. Seems to be that if evidence based reality doesnt conform thats OK because you can choose, its your God given right. Our society accepts men chosing to be women and competing in sport as women, so whats so difficult as denying news you dont like?

  13. Stuff news are doing their bit in pro-war propaganda ,,,, and youtube their bit with censorship.

    In response to a stuff clip about some kiwis going to ‘join the fight’,,,, I posted the suggestion they watch ukraine tv to motivate themselves https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b1EZTPt5XvU

    my comment was censored/deleted off youtube ,,,

  14. Regardless of where the truth lies in this situation the whole thing is an obscenity that needs to stop. Putin is a war criminal pure and simple but after Iraq where do you draw the line? Hopefully this stops soon before many more completely innocent people lose their lives.

  15. Bollocks, they’re no where near encircled …yes they are fighting on three fronts but have a huge swathe of territory to the west for supply/reinforcement. Over half of Ukraine’s regular army is intact in west where no Russian has set foot meanwhile day by day more Ukranians of the Reserves are mustering, day by day more civilians are becoming TDF/Militia Fighters. Ukraine can field a million or so before too long. Give it more time and they could muster 5million or more as every Ukrainian between 18 & 60 is eligible to be called up. Of course too many over 60 and under 18 will fight if needed plus a large contingent of female fighters as well plus all the volunteers from west will keep coming. West has more trained ex soldiers to volunteer than Russia has vassal/ally rabble for mercenaries.

    Unless Putin reveals to his people the “SMO” has failed and calls a full mobilization he can’t win quickly with the numbers he has. All he can do is bomb & shell. Only ones getting obliterated will be the Russians both militarily & economically.

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