GUEST BLOG: Ben Morgan – Russia is losing – What withdrawal in the north-east confirms?

ByThe Daily Blog

In recent days, the Ukraine campaign advanced dramatically. The Ukrainians probed in the north-east pushing east towards Balakliya, a town of about 26,000 people and an important railway junction. The offensive was spectacularly successful and on 8/9 September the town fell to Ukraine. Presenting a big problem for Russia, Balakliya is a road and rail junction on Russia’s main supply line from Belgorod in Russia to Izyum, the ‘firm-base’ for Russia’s advance from the north toward Sloviansk.  It is also the location of a large stockpile of artillery ammunition. 

Then on 10 September, the Ukrainians made another large advance 50 kilometres north and east towards the major Russian supply base at Kupiansk. A town of about 63,000 people that is a major transport hub and vital link in Russia’s supply line.  On the same day Russian general Igor Konashenkov announced that “In order to achieve the stated goals of the special military operation to liberate the Donbas, it has been decided to regroup the Russian troops stationed in the districts of Balakliia and Izium” confirming the withdrawal of Russian forces from this area.  On 11 September, there were reports that the Ukrainians are threatening Lysyschansk.  

Russia’s sudden withdrawal out of Kharkov Oblast (region) is very significant confirming key elements of previous assessments of Russia’s strength. Specifically, the success of the offensive confirms that Russian forces in the north-east are weak and short of tough infantry soldiers able to hold a defensive line.  Since, the start of the war we predicted Russia lacked the resources that it needed and was over extended.  Then as the war progressed and casualties mounted, we could extrapolate the impact of the war on Russia’s frontline troops and estimate that they were dangerously weak. However, we could not be sure because the ‘fog of war’ prevented us from knowing whether our predictions are correct or not. The sudden success of Ukraine’s advance confirms the assessment that Russia is over-extended and vulnerable.  

The following observations of recent activities support this hypothesis:

  • Russia’s supply line to Izyum is important and should have been strongly protected. Izyum is the main forward base for Russia’s northern axis of advance towards Sloviansk, Kramatorsk and the remainder of Donetsk Oblast (region).  Izyum is supplied from bases in Russian like Belgorod via rail lines that run through Kupiansk and Balakliya. It is a vital area that needed to be protected, Russia’s withdrawal is unlikely to be an incredible ploy to lure the Ukrainians into a trap. Instead it is a terrible failure. This is a simple demonstration that the Russians do not have enough motivated infantry soldiers to fill their foxholes. 
  • The Russians don’t have reserves. Reserves are important in both defence and offensive operations because they provide forces that can counter-attack of strengthen weak spots in the defensive line.  Based on how important the area between Belgorod and Izyum is for the Russia’s Donetsk campaign if reserves were available, they would have been used and the Ukrainian offensive would have been much slower or even stopped.  An advance of 50 kilometres in a day is huge, during the 1991 and 2003 Gulf Wars coalition forces advanced at about this speed with complete air-superiority, in large armoured formations and across open desert.  The speed of this advance means that the Russians are not resisting, which means they do not have reserves and are probably running. 
  • Russian command and control is failing, as is morale. A better army, faced with this situation may have stood firm at Izyum.  The approximately 20,000 soldiers there are a powerful force; and even if Kupiansk was captured would have retained their combat capability for a period of time.  The Ukrainian offensive may have been absorbed; and when it ran out of momentum a counter attack on its southern flank launched from Izyum.  However, operations like this are difficult and require motivated, competent and confident soldiers that are led by trusted commanders.  Across Russian and Ukrainian social media there are reports of collapsing Russian morale and the lack of defensive manoeuvre indicates that Russia’s morale and leadership are failing. 

We can now be more certain that the Russian Bear’s ‘eyes were too big for its stomach’ and that at strategic level the ‘Bear’ has not been able to honestly reassess the situation and modify its strategy.  Russia’s lines in the north-east are collapsing because too many of the limited number of quality soldiers available were shipped south. This situation results from starting the war with too few troops so when Russia moved troops from this area to reinforce Kherson and left poorer quality troops defending the Kharkov area Russia’s commanders took a big risk. A risk that is currently back-firing.

A key learning from this situation is that Russia’s campaign planning and command is broken.  Throughout the war Russia made dumb decisions because commanders on the ground are either incompetent or more likely are being managed directly by Putin. Politicians running day-to-day military operations is detrimental to military efficiency, in World War Two German generals often found themselves in terrible tactical situations because Hitler micro-managed their campaigns. This weakness was compounded by a culture of fear that did not allow senior commanders to be honest about problems.  

Recent events confirm who holds the initiative in this war.  In these articles, I have argued that Ukraine has held the initiative for a long-time.  In fact, since it shaped Russia’s commitment to the fight for Severodonetsk, for Russia the Dontesk campaign was a mistake.  Russia’s attack against Ukraine’s best soldiers, on ground of their choosing to take Sverodonetsk and Lysyschansk was a Pyrrhic victory.  The cities were captured but at terrible cost both in resources and strategically. The outcome of this campaign for Russia was being forced to fight a series of defensive battles; draining their resources while at the same time being ‘fixed’ in position so the Ukrainians could manoeuvre strategically. Recent activities confirm that the side driving the tempo of the war is now Ukraine.

So what happens next?  

Russia is collapsing in the north-east, we know this because the Kremlin’s media statements and information operation is failing. On 11 September, the Institute for the Study of War stated “The Russian MoD’s inability to admit Russian failures in Kharkiv Oblast and effectively set information conditions is collapsing the Russian information space”, highlighting the disconnection between what is happening ‘on the ground’ and ‘Kremlin spin’. Further, the Institute highlighted the conflict in Russian social media created by the disconnection. This activity is important because every significant Russian defeat weakens Putin, and the most realistic option for Ukraine to win this war is to defeat Putin politically at home. 

Therefore, the Ukrainians are incentivised to push hard and take as much ground and as many Russian prisoners as possible. However, there will be an operational pause when Ukraine consolidates its gains and makes sure that a Russian counter-attack doesn’t push them back.  Nations supporting Ukraine need to understand that when this happens it is a natural part of the campaign and not something to be concerned about. 

Any competent Russian leaders will be advising an immediate contraction of Russian lines, to stay ahead of Ukrainian advances and minimise the chance of a large element being ‘cut off’.  Then to ‘dig in’ and hold a new, shorter defensive line possibly along the Zherebets River, P66 Highway and the high ground east of these features. The river and high ground form a natural north-south barrier roughly on the border with Luhansk Oblast (region).  The aim being to use natural features to help stop the advance and quickly create a new more easily defended frontline. The real test of Russia’s capacity will be if they can retrieve the situation. My assessment is that the Russians are in real trouble in the north-east and that the limit to this offensive will not be Russian action but Ukraine’s capacity.  

Then there is Kherson, the operation there may have been a diversion. Specifically initiated to draw Russian forces away from Kharkov and only time will tell if that was the case.  At this stage though it is unlikely that the Ukrainians will relent in this area. It is holding Russian forces in the south and the original objectives of the operation remain extant. The Ukrainian ‘cauldron’ is still heating up and the Russian’s trapped west of the Dnipro are still in danger of being ‘cooked’.  

In summary, the war is entering a new phase.  Ukraine is on the offensive and making large gains.  The morale of Russian soldiers appears to be collapsing in the north-east and Ukraine is poised to take significant ground.  This will impact on morale across all Russian forces in Ukraine.  Whilst not inevitable, expect to see large scale Russian withdrawals and possibly large surrenders.   Further, expect to see the Russian 3rd Army Group hastily deployed to reinforce the Donbas removing its threat to operations around Kherson.  Therefore that operation may advance more quickly.  

Finally, this is a dangerous time because Ukraine’s success will put Putin under enormous pressure.  Expect to see ‘sabre rattling’ and inflammatory statements being issued from the Kremlin.  The world needs to be ready; and to continue to stand firm behind Ukraine regardless of the dictator’s threats.  

 

Ben Morgan is a tired Gen X interested in international politics. He is TDB’s Military analyst.

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68 Comments

  2. For all the Putin Apologists on here (you know who you are) welcome to the sinking feeling . . starting to wonder if Ben is perhaps not quite as delusional as you suspected?

    1. Well I have been getting tired of winning as Globalisation collapses from one hit after another the last 5 yrs or so.

      Too bad so much death and destruction.

      I always said Russia concerns should have been addressed to avoid war in the first place.

      1. Hardly balanced – some interesting points but a very subjective analysis. Massively pro-Putin as you are.

  3. Great analysis. The only thing I disagree with is the use of ‘learnings’ instead of ‘lessons.’

  4. A brief suicidal military advance, does not ‘win a war’. The way Russia fights is like a marathon not a sprint, and certainly NOT a Zelensky P.R exercise. I’m reminded of the film ‘Wag the dog’. Dustin Hoffman, Robert DeNiro and Woody Harrelson
    Let’s see how ‘the land lays’ in a couple of months to see if the recent Ukrainian ‘gains’ were worth it and can be held on to.

    1. The way Russia is fighting at the moment appears to be both a marathon and a sprint – A marathon towards the east at a sprinting pace.

  5. Stephen: Got proof? Bwuhahahahaha
    Nick J: Read the map, Ben, dafukanmap
    Mohammed Khan: Yo Ben Nazi Zelensky slaughtering babies its yr fault
    B Awakesky: West-NATO-Fortnite-Pokemon,,, Jacinda Blair …
    Antforce62: Kharkhiv withdrawal = collapse of west
    Keriman: PURE PROPAGANDA INTERNATIONAL LAW NONE EXIST URALLFUKDUP

    1. A very accurate portrayal of our Putin Apologist friends on there Richard – they may even have to tailor their responses?

  6. This development appears to end any Russian plan to make incremental gains in the Donbass over the winter, given they no longer have the capacity to encircle the remaining Ukrainian forces there and it will now be so much easier to boost their capability.

    Putin will now have to go to conscription (and formal declaration of war – after starting it with the special military operation which is a lot of pride for the bear to swallow) to maintain hopes of securing the entire Donbas and maintain connection from there to Crimea/Kherson. Such an action would have once been considered for the goal of at least novarussia, if not total defeat for Ukraine.

    While Putin would make threats to deter Ukrainian incursions on Russia itself, this might result in an escalation of supply to a Ukraine able to apply those resources now and leave the southern front at great risk of being taken down in multiple areas.

    Zhukov fought fascists, wherever they were. A tactical retreat just to continue making the same mistakes afterwards is pointless, one to enable of leadership and capability/competence (where there is no threat to Russia itself from Ukraine) is not. So it is now likely Putin has to admit resorting to use of force was a mistake error, or be replaced. Putin’s pride or Russia’s honour …

  8. Ben, your command of Ukrainian geography is very impressive.
    Some generals are mentioning tactical nukes being used by Putin as the defeats keep coming. I have heard that if this happened, NATO would launch a retaliatory conventional strike against Putin. Time will tell.

    1. If Putin decides to use nuclear weapons. NATO need do nothing, but stand back.
      Putin is not that popular that he can get away with using nuclear weapons.
      Every person on earth knows what nuclear weapons do.
      They don’t need another lesson.
      Any leader who orders nuclear weapons be dropped on Ukraine will find out what Nixon determined would have happened to him. That on dropping the bomb his own people will physically tear him to pieces.
      And no one and nothing could stop them.

      https://charliecompany.org/2013/12/18/nixon-considered-using-nukes-against-north-vietnam/

      1. If nuclear weapons are used by anyone – we’re all finished. There’s no way it will remain “tactical” or limited. Certainly if Russia are silly enough to start (which they could if they felt Russia itself was about to collapse) you know how the US will react, the vindictive a..holes that they are. Any by recent modelling estimates between 2 and 4Billion people will be killed. That’s one way to deal with the global warming and the overpopulation problem I suppose.

        1. What is the most important thing in the world?

          He Tangata, He Tangata, He Tangata.

          The thing about war crimes is that the perpetrator always wants to keep them hidden.

          If there was ever a war crime, detonating a nuclear device is it.

          But if there ever was a crime that couldn’t be hidden, detonating a nuclear device is it.

          The first country to detonate a nuclear weapon will face internal revulsion and revolt on a massive scale.

          1. No, they will conduct a clandestine black flag operation, blame the wicked enemy, and get away with it. No problem.

          2. Do tell.
            Next thing you will be telling me the Japanese dropped nuclear bombs on themselves to discredit the Americans.
            That the Spanish Republicans dropped bombs on Guernica to discredit the Germans.
            That the Syrian Opposition gassed their own people to discredit Assad.

  9. Interesting analysis Ben, I concur that the Russian command and control is failing coupled with poor supply and quality of materials. Drawing comparisons with World War 2 the Soviet Army succeeded on the Eastern front by completely overwhelming the Wehrmacht in both men and materials. This was achieved by centralised production and planning such as relocating Soviet factories east of the Urals plus massive amounts of American lend lease aid delivered via the Arctic convoys and Iran coupled with mass conscription and the willingness the sacrifice millions of lives. After the initial failures Stalin became willing to listen and gave a significant degree of operational freedom to his capable field commanders such as Zhukov and sacked the yes men. If you compare this to the current situation in Ukraine, Putin is micro managing field operations, he is unwilling to introduce conscription and does not have the industrial capacity to supply these armies even if he could raise the them, recent reports of Russian efforts to source artillery shells from North Korea is a good example of the desperate nature of the situation. Basically Putin believed that his “special military operation” would be short blitzkrieg campaign and that it would all be over pretty quickly because Putin grossly underestimated his opponents. Someone else made a similar mistake in 1941! Put quite simply Russia does not have the military or industrial capacity to keep waging a war of attrition and will not resort to nuclear weapons even tactical battlefield ones because this would be a red line for NATO. He is hoping that by cutting off the gas supply to Europe he can drive a wedge between the NATO allies especially Germany who is often seen as one of weaker links in the alliance.

    1. “He is hoping that by cutting off the gas supply to Europe he can drive a wedge between the NATO allies especially Germany who is often seen as one of weaker links in the alliance.”
      Sanctions against Russia cut the gas supply to Europe, not Russia. You are right though, a wedge has been well and truly driven, and that is the wedge between Russia and Germany/Europe! Trade between Russia and Europe, led by arguably Europe’s most important nation, Germany, eventually leads to normalized relations between these nations, which in turn leads to a united, therefore powerful block of nations. The USA cannot abide another powerful entity challenging their hegemony, bad enough the rise of China, let alone Europe in turn. Hence, a wedge has been drawn, the USA has played its long cultivated Ukraine card, and Europe is paying the price, ditto the rest of the West. Such is politics and the way of the world – those on top of the world do what they need to do to stay on top – while we the people remain none the wiser.

  10. Another great post – thanks Ben

    Will the Ukrainians bed down for the autumn rain or will they push some more? Kherson is an awfully tempting target.

    Will the Ukraine’s Fulcrums, now newly equipped with NATO weapons like HARMS start to dominate the battlefield?

  11. Six months in to this conflict and Ukraine has finally done something noteworthy and yet its Russia on the ropes! That saying, now well associated with that outfit from Mangatainoka, is ringing in my ear. Not the sound I want to hear but accurate nonetheless.

  12. Well done Ben, I enjoy your analyses.

    Good to be vindicated after all the trolling but I do wonder if part of what we are seeing isnt so much a morale issue but a tacit letting go of the front because the Russian’s can no longer maintain it. They’d rather see it fall quietly than announce they are pulling out perhaps? I’d expect to see more Russian strength in the South East as I think they will fight to keep Mariupol and Melitopol and the Crimean land border with Ukraine.

    With that corridor secured the Russians could call a truce and come back to pick off Odessa in a few years after they have built up their resources.

    I think that their ultimate aim is to control access to the Black Sea for both geopolitical and economic ends. To do so would turn the Ukraine into a powerless shell. It would be a debt sink after the war with few energy resources and problems getting its grain to market.

  13. This latest advance by Ukraine is Ukraine’s Tet Offensive.

    What is not recognised about the Tet Offensive is that Tet ended in a decisive victory for the Americans.

    However; the very fact that the Vietnamese NLF could mount such an assault on American power and prestige spelt the end of the war for the US.

    Ukraine’s Kharkov campaign can be compared to the Vietnamese Tet Offensive except in one thing. Ukraine appears to be winning it.

  14. The Ukranian’s seem to have a much better understanding of logistics than the Russians who are being humiliated with cut supply lines, destroyed ammunition and equipment warehouses. Tactically it was smart for the Ukranians to take out the supply hubs and cut Russian supply lines thus demonstrating an understanding of logistics. Meanwhile Russian defense was inadequate demonstrating a failure. So many Russian’s have surrendered in the last few days that strain is being put on Ukraine in the processing and housing of the vast number of prisoners which incidentally includes three generals. Russia’s response has been to deny the rout and call it a regrouping plus fire cruise missile at civilian targets. The momentum is now certainly with Ukraine but time will tell how important this Kharkov victory for Ukraine has been.

    Keep up the good work Ben. Your analysis has been sound thus far. The comments section is quite entertaining for those who have watched for a while. Ben you have been on the money cf. some of the pro Russian trolls who must be seething due to the Russian military incompetence. There is likely more ignominy to come for them around Kherson as occupied land is ceded. Reports of Russian commanders asking to discuss surrender terms are coming through from this area.

  15. Really enjoyed this comedy article – Russia ‘losing’ while controlling huge swathes of Ukranian territory is one of the funniest things I’ve heard – it’s right up there with Israeli reporters saying that they defended their country so well they accidentally ended up taking over Palestinian territory!

    Keep up the good work!

  16. Oh we’re sure to have reports all over the front line confirming all this… no? just close in shots of captured or destroyed hardware still? Lovely Ukrainian women driving around in uniform talking to the camera?
    See the problem is when you don’t learn from white helmets and “moderate rebel” “guerilla” footage, you’re doomed to get fed more of it.

    30,000 Ukrainians and Nato mercenaries have left 4+ year dug in positions, to claim an extended section of territory with no defences. The Russians chose not to dig in Izyum, for instance, and chose to leave it, with light casualties.
    Claiming territory is not and has never been Russia’s first priority. The demilitarisation and eradication of Nato’s most powerful ever proxy army, however, continues apace.
    But the one place the US axis always wins is on the PSYOPs scrobeoard, right until the last second, a la Afghanistan. So let the “banana-lysis” roll on.

    1. Bit of a wake up call for both sides. The casualty counts from the offensive actions near Kharkov and Kherson are from Ukraine based reports very high. Russian reports claim the same high Ukrainian losses versus light casualties for them. What is obvious is that to date Ukraine has accepted huge losses and shows no sign of losing resolve. Under that scenario NATO “fighting to the last Ukrainian” is a reality.
      Russia meanwhile shows no less resolve, So far have left Ukraines infrastructure intact, they turned off the grid briefly, they could be signaling that they are capable of doing it permanently.

  17. Now the excitement has declined and reality settled in time to take stock. This American sums it up. https://www.moonofalabama.org/
    Meanwhile in Moscow Putin critics are telling him off for not ramping things up. This is precisely the point where sage heads would ignore escalation, who needs a full on hot war with Europe when they are in the process of committing economic suicide on behalf of the US?
    Those who read the markets might have noticed the US banks making massive profits out of commodity prices from disruption caused by sanctions. That is the real war, it is dollars versus commodities, production versus consumption, energy producers versus energy consumers, the “West” versus the rest. That for the likes of Pat is the real imperialist struggle. And it will be played out in energy bills, unemployment, industrial collapse.

      1. Wild theories, well its is basically what Larry Johnson has been saying (his pedigree Larry C Johnson is a veteran of the CIA and the State Department’s Office of Counter Terrorism. Larry provided training to the US Military’s Special Operations community for 24 years). Its also what Scott Ritter and Colonel McGregor are saying, amongst others. All American sources. Use Dr Google, enjoy.

        1. That doesn’t say that these sources of yours are credible though. Johnson seems to be a crazy conspiracist, and Ritter is a convicted sex offender! These guys have zero credibility about anything least of all Russia! What lovely company you keep!

          1. “Seems to be”… If you care to read you might learn. Here’s a wager, on Christmas Day check if the Germans have a gas and electricity supply crisis. Check if entire Donbass is in Russian hands. If I’m wrong I will post humble pie. You?

  18. I’m still convinced this wont be over until next summer and will be absolute carnage until NATO fully intervenes.

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