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  1. Good grief, such a detailed US Imperiailst newsletter from Ben.

    I do not support Putin, Russia has been a capitalist society since the early 1990s, and after Lenin’s death the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics became a degenerate workers state as Trotskyites described it.

    This is a war involving imperialist states which needs to be settled by negotiation.

    1. Wrong Tiger Mountain! The USSR was always a degenerate state from the very beginning. That’s why my grandfather joined the White Army!

        1. It’s not bigotry. Gorbachev, Yeltsin, even Putin disavowed Bolshevism. You obviously haven’t In Vino.

          1. One can disavow only things that one has adopted in the first place.

            You seem to have a talent for leaping to really stupid conclusions.

          2. What do you mean? You seem very selective In Vino. Bolshevism was adopted and the dictatorship of the proletariat was adopted. You presumably are referring to an airy fairy concept called ‘communism’. I think you are blinded by Marxism/Leninism In Vino. And you probably have never been to Russia.

          3. I knew all that, and I have never adopted Bolshevism. Nor do I have to have ‘been to’ Russia.

            Childish.

      1. White Army? one of the scabbiest revisionary outfits ever seen. It is always interesting to see who comes out of the woodwork when discussing Russia.

        1. Both sides were as bad as one another. I don’t make excuses for White excesses just as you shouldn’t make excuses for the Reds.

          1. “Both sides were as bad as one other.” ??
            Since you pick on others’ Grammar, Ovod, would you like to correct that ghastly mess you have just made?

            Try ‘Both sides were equally bad’
            or ‘Each side was as bad as the other.’

            Try to use ‘one another’ where there are more than 2, and ‘each other’ when there are only 2.

  2. I don’t think Putin will have any worries about mobilisation .The more Ukraine attacks Russia itself, the more recruiting becomes easier.And he has the same recourse to propaganda as any leader.Look how Key was able to increase the powers of our security agencies by telling an outright lie re the imminent danger of jihadis in NZ .Turned out later there were never any jihadis.Aus. had a few jihadi brides leaving for ISIS in Syria, nothing to do with us .That spectacular lie was never punished or brought to account .And the powers of the GCSB were increased for all time.

    1. Rubbish F. Putin is afraid of mobilisation as the Russian presidential elections are very close and it will not be a good look particularly in Moscow and Petersburg. Why did he delay the first mobilisation so long? Fear. Young Russians don’t want to sacrifice themselves for some megalomaniac!
      You have no idea Francesca.

  3. The Wests appetite to continue support for Ukraine is waning.
    When the full blast of Winter hits and the shortages of grain and diesel impact on Europe ,its game over.

  4. Ok, so the only reasonable way to interpret the mountain of Ukrainian dead as them “winning” is believing there are less mobilisable soldiers in Russia than there are warm bodies in Ukraine. Russia had 270K walk ups in the last 6 months alone.
    Russians know whose money, weapons and intelligence and strategies are prolonging this conflict. They know who this war is with and why. Motivation is not lacking.

    I do sense Ben’s enthusiasm waning, however. With all the showy Nato stone throwing at Sevastapol, I think the “good guys” are about to call “Victory!” and go home.

      1. Nope. Walk ups. The insane Russophobia from the self-declared enemies trying to surround them and prolonging a pointless proxy war is very motivating.

  5. The momentum in Ukraine’s favour has continued and accelerated in the last week. Look back at a map of occupied territory held by the Russian’s soon after the start of the war and compare it with now. Russia have had to concede over half of the territory they considered captured and concede more daily at the moment. Russia having to remove their naval strike force from Sevastapol is a big deal and the world was shocked at how weakly such an important asset was protected. Currently with the first Serovikin lines crossed and Verbove and Novoprokopivka being entered in Zaporhizia Russia are struggling. The same goes for the Bakhmut area where the Ukrainians have fire control and continue to cause heavy attrition of Russian troops and equipment. The Russian’s are now just re-acting and despite being the invaders are not controlling the fate of this war any more.

    Blazer re the Wests support waning for Ukraine. That sounds like wishful thinking on your part because both the USA and the Brits reiterated in the last few days that they are there for the long haul. Further weapons support was announced from the USA and on top of that a small supply of ATACMS was promised. It is Russia struggling with diesel supply and it has hit already pre winter. Russia is seriously short of some types of military equipment too, not just certain grades of fuel. USA and Brits offer much more clout in the way of support than North Korea and Iran. Russia’s support can hardly wane as it has always been near rock bottom! Russia are being seriously weakened by this war and are unlikely to be saved by a mobilisation. They have revealed that they cannot conquer Ukraine militarily. The best Russia can hope for is a negotiated peace deal where they retain part of the currently occupied territory or a demilitarised zone as a buffer from the rest of Ukraine which will eventually become part of NATO.

    1. Russia is not suffering from a diesel supply shortage,but the West soon will be.Lack of refining capacity a factor.
      NZ ‘s dumbarse move of closing down Marsden Pt will come back to bite…big time.
      Hawkish Anglo/American politicians support may appear strong,but the people that elected them are not so….content.

      1. Blazer the refinery at Marsden point is another classic example of “leave it to the market”. Get used to more of that after October.

        1. Refining NZ at Marsden Pt was a creation of Rogernomics in the mid 80s. A bent set up which allowed the international oil companies to import, operate transfer pricing to their parent companies, and set local predatory retail pricing!

          The kick in the arse is the remaining pollution nearby.

  6. Blazer I agree with you re the Marsden Point closure but not the other points. Her is a Reuters piece from 22 Sept. It appears that the Russian export ban is primarily to boost domestic supply which has been struggling to keep up rather than a move to hurt the West which is not dependent on Russian diesel anyway.

    … Russia in recent months has suffered shortages of gasoline and diesel. Wholesale fuel prices have spiked, although retail prices are capped to try to curb them in line with official inflation.

    The crunch has been especially painful in some parts of Russia’s southern breadbasket, where fuel is crucial for gathering the harvest. A serious crisis could be awkward for the Kremlin as a presidential election looms in March.

    Traders say the fuel market has been hit by factors including maintenance at oil refineries, bottlenecks on railways and the weakness of the rouble, which incentivises fuel exports …

  7. My sense of the conflict coincides with William Spaniel’s mathematical analysis.

    This is an asymmetrical war in one key area: Zelenski is accountable for the welfare of his troops whereas Putin, just like all Russian leaders in history, will happily sacrifice half a million men on the altar of his own ego. So, it makes no sense for Ukraine to engage in a slugging match.

    At the beginning of the Ukraine counter offensive this summer Ukraine tried NATO tactics and got a bloody nose because they don’t have what NATO has in terms of equipment: Mainly air superiority. So, lacking fast jets, they’ve innovated and what they’re doing is the right thing: Create kill-zone cauldrons into which the Russians send their ‘meat waves’ until they run out men, material & morale. All while blinding the enemy’s air defence capability.

    The best reference for their approach is Sun Tzu: “Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win.” So, Ukraine will only strike ‘en masse’ when the Russian morale is broken, and their artillery is unable to respond in strength.

  8. Some amazing commentary on an amazing blog! How the end result of this conflict will be explained by these people when they finally come in will be fascinating.
    D J S

    1. Couldn’t agree more. Ecstatic exultation backed by hope alone, one new theory that is like the others more faith than logic.
      Unfortunately I don’t foresee any circumspect will be forthcoming when it all ends predictably badly. No questioning why they ate the official narrative. Just move right along to the next debacle cheering loudly.

  9. Interesting Ben what you say about attrition. It may well be the case and there will also be a real desire to save every Ukrainian under occupation and to claim back every inch of land. We should never forget, strategies and tactics aside, war can be very, very personal.

    I was not at all surprised to see The Azers kicking off – when the cats away the mice will play.

    Putin has been supporting the Armenians for some time (as my displaced Azerbyjanian friend tells it) so no doubt, they are striking while the iron is hot. Putin has been stoking conflict across the ex soviet states for his own purposes for a few decades now so in some ways we may see a domino effect across some of these states if Azerb … manages to advance because Putin is no longer able to support the Armenians. We also dont know if the US have been in Az and is covertly encouraging them with this end in mind.

    Interesting times.

    1. “Russia stoking conflict in its neighbours….”

      I mean, given the long reach of USAID and its color revolutions alone, the stupidity of that comment simply has to be marvelled at.

  10. Ukraine’s current strategy could be described as a full court press. By keeping the pressure on Russia across a broad front, it makes it harder to assign reserves and supplies where they are most needed. Combined with the deep strikes, Russia’s front lines are imperiled by loss of supply and local weaknesses from loss of manpower.
    They are pushing from their salient in the south however, and this is sometimes costly. I’d be surprised if Putin cannot mobilize more troops – what is there to stop him? But poorly trained and motivated soldiers, though a stop gap, fare poorly in encounters with more experienced forces.
    The decisive move may come soon – a drive to cut Zaporizhya, opening an Incheon-style new front in Crimea, or an eastern breakthrough like last year. Any one will do.

  11. Stephen Russian sources have now confirmed that the Sevastapol Naval HQ attacks killed Admiral Victor Sokolov. You really are stretching it to call these attacks a pin prick. Even some of the pro Russian bloggers are beside themselves recognising just how bad the situation in Crimea is. Until Russia restore air defence coverage in Crimea, and many think they can’t, they will be subjected to missile hits. This makes keeping the Black Sea fleet and some of the aircraft in Crimea untenable. Russia have already moved their remaining subs and various other ships out. Fleet command decapitated and base sites untenable because of inability to protect them = pin prick. Yeah Right!

    1. I thought we weren’t meant to believe anything the rotten Russians say, Trev.
      I suspect that Solokov is actually sandbagging, and has gone for a late summer holiday.
      Or if all you guys say about the Russians is true, maybe he ‘fell’ out of a window?
      DJS is right – there is an entertaining aspect to the level of this debate.

    2. Thanks Trev.
      There you go Stephen – your wishful thinking is total fantasy. As is NJ’s.
      Sokolov is dead. You Putinists are all false bravado!

        1. How do you know when that video footage was taken NJ? The answer is you don’t! The Kremlin is up to their old tricks again! Ukraine has agents on the ground in Sevastopol.

      1. Maybe alive but maybe not well. Speculation is that he was speaking from hospital!
        Anyway the Russians could have doctored the dates on the video.

      2. FYI Ukraine took out a command bunker used by the Russian Admiralty two days before the strike on the main HQ. Therefore the Admiralty was forced to meet in the main building and got taken out by the Storm Shadows. Until I see Sokolov walking and talking, I will not be convinced.

      3. Still smarting from not getting a state funeral, dead Russian admiral, Victor Sokolov, issues a press statement. I will be directing the attack on Ukrainian grain shipments from hell, luckily I have some of my best officers with me.

  12. B Awakesky try checking out the Russian “dead and wounded” payout figures. Using the expenditure numbers Russian dead and wounded based on payouts are about 230000 dead and 750000 wounded. Of course some may say corrupt people have inflated the numbers and pocketed some of the payouts but such inadvertently released budget reconciliation numbers are more believable than Kremlin press releases.

  13. Genuine living SS man applauded by Canadian parliament for “fighting Russians”. For Hitler, with a unit famous for extermination of Jews, Poles, Ukrainians.

    So PhuD, Trev, Ted etc, you tell us that Zhelensky doesn’t associate with Nazis? He was there. Explain this abhorrent event.

    1. The Canadian Speaker has been dismissed and it was a stupid idea to invite the ex Ukrainian Nazi. You can’t prove that Zelensky approved the Speaker’s actions!
      Satisfied?

          1. I don’t but you make things up all the time FG – based on the latest Kremlin propaganda of course!

      1. How was it that Zelensky rose to his feet and joined in the ecstatic ovation, when the Speaker had introduced the Hunka guy as having fought in the Ukrainian 1st Division.He would have been well aware what that meant for the history of his country .Zelensky lost his grandfather and 2 great uncles in the holocaust, and yet he still stood up and clapped this Nazi creep.And never raised an objection .

  14. Regarding Sokolov. I acknowledge that there are now supposed pictures of him very recently released suggesting that he is still alive and was attending a meeting. I do not think that is the level of proof required. Why did such a release take so long and why are some “experts” saying the time stamp on the video has been edited? That may be old footage hastily repurposed. Yes it can be dangerous to believe Russian sources at times! A live interview with Sokolov is required to clarify the matter. Either way it is irrefutable that the missiles hit Black Sea Fleet targets. If I am later proved wrong about Solokov having been killed I’ll admit I was wrong here.

  15. Nick J. regarding Sokolov. it does appear that he is actually dead or severely injured because now the second video purporting to show he survived the missile strike has been time ID’d as from four days before the bombing not afterward. Thus another stuffed up cover-up from the Russians!

    1. Trev, I got my info from those two most pro Russian sites(sarc) Al Jazeera and New York Times. Just have to wait and see.

      Meanwhile how do you feel about Ukraine’s SS mans standing ovation?

    2. The theory was that Sokolov was either critically injured or dead as he was propped up on what seemed to be a hospital bed with a Russian Navy cross of St Andrew flag in the background. Perhaps it was a shroud?

  16. Bolsheviks were Russians, Jews, Ukrainians etc PhuD (supposed historian). Don’t try and conflate them as today’s Russians.

    1. It seems to me that Ovod has yet to become objective about the nasty things that happen in history. Especially Russian history. Russia became strong only when ruled with a rod of iron by very cruel, autocratic rulers.
      I agree with those who say that Stalin was the last of the great (and cruel, ruthless) Tsars. The Bolsheviks were certainly not nice.
      Why is anyone expecting angelic behaviour from Putin?
      His mission is the survival of what he sees as Russia.

      What I find disappointing is that some are naive enough to think that the US Industrial-Military Complex are now any less ruthless and cruel.

      Cling to naive beliefs in the superiority of whichever side you want to…

      1. Who are those who said Stalin was the last of the Tsars? What a stupid notion, as you are for believing it.
        I guarantee Stephen Kotkin, Stalin’s most eminent biographer would never say such a thing!
        What the hell has the US got to do with it? Remind me when the US had bloodletting on the scale of the Great Terror or the Red Terror? Or the number of Gulags? Or the Cheka run by a bloodthirsty maniac called Felix Djerzhinski or its successor the NKVD run by Stalin’s henchmen Yagoda and Yezhov? Stalin was a sadistic thug as is Putin. Not much difference there.

    2. They are indeed equivalent NJ. The fact is the FSB has never renounced their Bolshevism with regiments named after Djezhinski – a bloodthirsty Pole – and others of similar ilk.
      Yeltsin attempted to reform it but the fascists within, including Putin, resisted. Litvinenko who actually had a higher rank than Putin, was appalled and attempted to call Putin and co. out and guess what happened to him!

    1. Just for you Pat, a map gazing exercise in Kiev.
      You can get to Babi Yar memorial in Kiev, by following avenues of Roman Shukhevych and Stepan Bandera–both cadre Nazi officers and genocidal murderers. These avenues were renamed by the Kiev regime. I hope you know what happened at Babi Yar.

      1. “I hope you know what happened at Babi Yar.” Nick J

        And this justifies Russia slaughtering men, women and children in Ukraine today, How?

        1. Incase you didn’t know Pat your Nazi mates in Ukraine have been shelling the Russian speaking citizens of Ukraine since 2014. How ironic that twice in a century Russians have had to eject Nazis.

          1. “…Ukraine have been shelling the Russian speaking citizens of Ukraine since 2014.” Nick J

            There is no evidence of this

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