Greens risk losing third party status as Winston Peters’ Prime Ministerial gambit emerges
New Zealand’s parliamentary arithmetic is shifting in ways that could fundamentally reshape the next government. As Labour’s internal cohesion weakens and New Zealand First re-enters coalition calculations, the Greens face a strategic dilemma that could define their relevance for the next electoral cycle.
Labour’s Internal Fragility and the Erosion of Leadership Authority
Every time a Māori Labour MP resigns, Chippy’s leadership becomes weaker. The Māori Labour Caucus is the biggest faction supporting Chippy. Winston has demanded Chippy’s head as the price to do business with Labour, but it will be more than that.
Winston Peters’ Leverage and the Price of Power
There’s only one thing that Winston now wants and it’s one thing National and ACT can never give him, Prime Minister.
Winston will want Chippy’s head AND he will want Prime Minister for 18 months and then hand it over to whoever inside Labour he can convince to commit the coup.
The Greens’ Strategic Trap
The danger for the Greens is that if they lose their 3rd party ranking that they will be forced to bow the knee to NZ First and submit to Winston Peters’ political demands.
The decision for the Greens will be stark – either allow another National/ACT/NZF Government or enable a Labour/NZF/Green Government by providing supply and confidence in return for some limited policy concessions.
The Three Most Likely Political Outcomes
The political outcomes now are:
- National/ACT/NZF returned to power for a second term with an even more radical privatisation agenda.
- NZF/Labour/Greens with Winston as PM for 18months and the Greens providing supply and confidence for very little.
- Labour/Greens/MP with a much more radical economic, societal and environmental platform.
Chloe is as close to another Helen Kelly or Mamdani as we are going to get. She is wasted in the Greens and the longer she stays with them the more ineffective she becomes.
If there was any justice or hope at all she would be leading Labour and unlike Jacinda would not be afraid to lead a government of real change and reform and not continue with the current shadow cabinet that is invisible and out of touch with many hurting Kiwis.
New Zealanders would come on board and support a program for real change.
Bugger and damn.
Hipkins might sleep walk to victory or to defeat, frankly I see them as lacking a real spine.
Even more radical privatization agenda? What have they actually privatized so far? Anything?
Are you really that dim? The out sourcing of health. The charter schools. Least we forget the selling of contracts of school lunches to corporate donors. And my personal; favorite – selling citizenship.
Try harder to defend the indefensible?
Very small bickies compared with what Douglas, Bolger and Key did. It’s a non-story.
You sarcastically asked expecting they privatised nothing. They did and now you try and defend them. Your comment is a non story, like most of them.
Tell me, why didn’t Clark or Ardern nationalize electricity when they had the chance?
If this coalition get back into power, Aotearoa is doomed
In other words, New Zealand is saved.
No, it’s definitely doomed should they get back in.
” …a plot to make Winston Prime Minister.” May as well. I mean, why not? Our politic isn’t that. It’s neoliberal, which means big business, and increasingly no longer exclusively AO/NZ big business own us either. Not we ourselves but them. Our banksters are now australian owned, our essential infrastructure like transport and shipping will almost certainly be owned by off shore investors and our primary industry farmers are being manipulated by foreign politic to best suit foreign-politic needs, not ours.
The way to sanitise our AO/NZ would be to make voting compulsory and to begin to regard foreign banking as being aggressors with plans to invade. Sure! Great! Make the useless old fuck peters prime minister. Who cares? It’s just that we must come to believe in ourselves and make sure our politicians do what we tell them. NOT the other way around as has currently been the case for the last forty or more years now.
On the subject of foreign owned banks being able to dictate their terms to us; How about a single, Sovereign Bank imbedded within OUR government ? I know friends who are chilling at the spectre of renewing their mortgage agreements with the australian owned banksters and as they dare to read bad news, the news is certainly bad as interest rates on home lending is grinding every skyward and we think we’re powerless to resist. Of course we’re not, but who first to resist?
Now…? If we elected Chloe Swarbrick as PM. That, would be a whole new thing. I’ve met her and not only is she mechanically intelligent but she’s also a human, human being with empathy and patience. Peters is just a bi-pedal ash tray plugged into a lie printing machine.
Stark choices ahead yet most of you still think that I’m crazy for believing promises like this “Now I saw a new heaven and a new earth, for the first heaven and the first earth had passed away. Also there was no more sea.” and “And He said to me, “It is done! I am the Alpha and the Omega, the Beginning and the End. I will give of the fountain of the water of life freely to him who thirsts. He who overcomes shall inherit all things, and I will be his God and he shall be My son.”
All the evidence suggests that another dark ages is starting where a corrupt church and government combine to destroy freedom as the selfish combine in trying to continue their hold on power.
Yes Martyn I agree with you – feed Winston’s ego. Below is a post I put in here 23/1/26 in which I said – “So why can’t Hipkins offer a “sweetener” to Winston that is so good he can’t refuse it [clearly with a handbrake on mining and tobacco] – get where I’m heading?“ That is exactly what I was saying, except I envisaged the 2nd year so Hipkins got the 1st & 3rd years. Whatever the left do this smug, dangerous, narcissisitic, weak Luxon and ‘Atlas’ ACT must not be allowed back in to continue destoying our entire infrastructure, privatising and selling us off to the highest bidders. Of course Labour, a ‘united’ Maori party, and a Greens focussed on the ‘Green’ matters, instead of Woke Sh&t, could do it, but they had better get their butts into gear NOW. This coming election will again see Luxon lying through his teeth, promising ‘preferential treatment’ – also known as corruption – to his wealthy donors and evading much of what he doesn’t comprehend. Luxon is NOT and never WILL BE PM material. I also despise how he uses religion – it’s obscene. He truly is a fake and a con artist.
Just wondering why the Green Party must be obligated to focus on “‘Green matters”.
That is just simply weird.
Are you similarly requiring ACT and National to focus purely on their so-called strong points of “the economy”?
Give me a (non-hypothetical) break, bro.
Politics impacts all of society – not just compartments that fit your dogma.
It seems the Greens holistic approach to our economy and environment is far more sensible that these dickholes currently in charge.
If you want your precious future generations to enjoy sovereignty then logic should impel you to vote Green.
Um, because they’re called The GREEN Party. Not the Critical Social Justice party.
National are called National but don’t govern for the nation, just a select few and have no interest in the social aspect of our country.
You should read the Greens portfolio and educate yourself pompous, if you can?
If the Greens were focused on the environment and sound socialist economics they would be more popular than they are now. You might think that social engineering is a major issue but most of the struggling families in NZ have more important issues regarding the cost of living and the slow moving train-wreck that has been the Greens MP selection policy is behind much of their decline in support.
Yes this is dumb, Their kaupapa has always had two strong strands, environment & social justice.
What have you been smoking?
Winston has done a great job as our Foreign Minister. His knowledge of the system and the World order has put us in a good position. This does not mean he would be a good PM especially if it made him beholden to Labour.The country would go backwards .
Going backwards now!
He has done a better job for Israel than he has for NZ so you need to stop being so easily brought.
He is just a Trump suck up and was woeful in the Samoa fall out so I have no idea why you say he’s done a great job. Quite the opposite in fact. Probably because he is beholden to National.
Labour don’t want Winston because he was a hand break to the positive reforms Labour wanted to be able to change our country for the positive after the hideous Key years. And remember Winston went with Labour because he wanted to kill the Key/National neoliberalism agenda.