Dr Liz Gordon: The Covid election
So it has come to pass that this election has been anointed, by our great leader, the Covid election. And it is further declared that the Covid will be served up with a range of piquant sauces in small quantities to delight the senses. Perhaps a little pinch of education there, a health sauce and a side of employment assistance.
There are at least three factors at play here. The first one is the need to keep New Zealand as a little oasis of paradise free of the rampant virus sweeping the world. The numbers internationally are not good, increasing throughout Europe and parts of Asia and rampant in the Americas. Politically, this translates into a message to New Zealanders that, as someone once said, “the price of safety is eternal vigilance”. And our government’s record to date on this is unmatched, and continued messaging is reassuring.
Very handily, we have the Victoria case close to home to show us what happens when we, as a nation, relax our guard.
The second factor is the known is better than the unknown. Einstein once said (a mantra for the ages) that “The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, but expecting different results.” The flip side of this is that doing the same things again, when they have worked incredibly well, is just very sane.
Finally, just getting political here, why would you not campaign on a record that is superb and world-leading. Getting into policies in any depth risks people who support Labour and would vote for them on Covid, rejecting them on a policy platform.
Every time Jacinda plays the Covid card, she looks virtuous. For some reason, Judith Collins has morphed into Simon Bridges, sending negative little snipes back to everything that Jacinda says. Can I say to Judith, in the school playground, when the bully starts attacking the most popular girl in school, who is she really going to persuade? A change in tactics is warranted here.
There are other reminders that Labour is the virtuous choice this election. There seems to be a boys club of ex- Air New Zealand chief executives calling on the government to privatise the isolation. Honestly, these neoliberal types want to suck profit out of everything, don’t they. Don’t listen to them Jacinda!
I thought there was a chance a few weeks ago that Judith would come riding in on her horse and change the course of the election. You, dear readers, pooh poohed me and it looks like you were right and I was wrong. I humbly withdraw! She has been able to make no traction at all, and the growing threat of a second wave of Covid will keep this government firmly in place.
There is a small threat every day that a security guard, hotel worker, police or army person might get the virus and take it home. If this were to lead to a Victoria-style outbreak now, and numbers started rising fast before the election (and especially if it happened in, say, Auckland and Christchurch), the unassailable lead that Labour has could erode to something less. They must be nervous about this, and the messages coming out every day about the need to be careful show this to be the case. Also the “it will happen” mantra, to prepare us for such a shock. Losing our Covid-free status would be a terrible blow in every way.
Let’s therefore hope for a delightfully Covid free Covid election.
Dr Liz Gordon is a researcher and a barrister, with interests in destroying neo-liberalism in all its forms and moving towards a socially just society. She usually blogs on justice, social welfare and education topics.
I can’t say I’ve been impressed with the start of Labour’s election campaign.
I detest pointless catch phrases that are used to bash people over the head and brain wash them.
Bill English was vanilla in every area. Utterly boring speaker and the epitome of “uninspiring”. His catch phrase during the 2017 campaign was “Strong stable Government”. Obviously, National wanted to brainwash NZ with that narrative and it was feeble to witness. The Dipton Double Dipper had nothing else to fall back on so kept hitting people over the head with that one. It also plays into the hands of all those that dislike or even fear change. Unfortunately, it came across as akin to advising females to stay in an abusive relationship as the unknown would be even worse.
Labour steps up with “let’s do this”. Sounded like a motivational speech from the CEO to a team of door to door vacuum sales people. Ardern is such a magnificent speaker , it’s shameful for her to be using nameless and faceless speech writers and catch phrase creators. They often completely numb the natural communication abilities of outstanding speakers. The speaker ends up paralyzed just repeating the same pointless words and phrases.
During the lockdown etc, the Government, especially Ardern did a magnificent job of managing the crisis. Ardern’s oratory skills came through day after day. Always spontaneous and with her skills and personality on show every day. BUT then some genius invented another pointless catch phrase. “we went hard and we went early”. Yes you did but that only needed to be said once. Instead, it was used repeatedly in almost every speech and by almost every Government MP. When you have to resort to the same tired phrase incessantly, it highlights the speaker being bereft of any other words to describe the exact same situation. Is that really the message you want to send everyone, especially those that were already applauding you and your breath of fresh air personality?
There’s been numerous other pointless catchphrases that have been incessantly repeated. Now we have a new catch phrase. “there’s still more to do”. Ardern then repeated that same phrase numerous times in the same speech. Yawn. Really Jacinda? of course there is still more to do. A shitload more. That’s a given even to blind Freddy. Please stop. You’re so much better than this pointless nonsense.
Another speech she made recently was less than impressive. John Key has been scathing of her recently in party political broadcasts on behalf of the National Party. Key stated the Covid crisis is over. It’s now an economic crisis. In other words, Ardern did an ok job with Covid but that’s history now. It’s all about the economic crisis and only one party of course is equipped to manage the economy. He even said “Ardern does not care about the economy” Utter horseshit of course from the man who apparently wanted out of politics so when Ardern had the chance to tear him a new one, she actually spoke about how well Key and English had managed the economy. FFS! What were you thinking to say that? The farcical rock star economy was divisive carnage. This is the worst possible time to “play nice”. National was about divide and conquer the despised enemy while feathering the nests of the wealthy and do so with complete indifference to the carnage being created for so many. Please Jacinda, don’t lose sight of this as that’s exactly what National want.
No more, yes the house burnt down but the new impressive letterbox was left unscathed and is in great condition. Nobody gives a rats arse about the letterbox.
National’s narrative for the election campaign is about how well they manage the economy and how badly the “other lot” manage it. National is not remotely interested in Covid-19. They’ve conceded that battle to you. The economy is the ONLY narrative they’re interested in being on the table. You must not let them control the narrative to suit themselves especially with pointless catch phrases and cliches.
All Ardern has done is agree with National managing the economy well. A serious blunder in my opinion.
Rehashing a National Party policy as one of your few policy releases so far was very poor form. It’s actually a decent enough policy but when you have to reach (steal as National put it) for the policy of another party as one of your first policies to be released so far it says you’re fresh out of ideas and the ideas of National are actually good. Why would you want to send that message at this time? This is the time fresh ideas are needed more than ever.
Don’t risk it all on your speech writer Jacinda.
Play your hand well and you will govern alone. Play it badly and gift control of the narrative to National and this will be the result.
National creep up the polls.
Labour slide down and unable to govern alone.
Greens fall off the radar so you have no coalition partner as NZF are gone.
Act continue their rise and can help National become the next Government and that will result in unprecedented devastation for NZ with Collins as PM.
This election is yours to lose Jacinda. Don’t fark it up !
Yes, I’m a Jacinda fan but that isn’t unconditional.
Well written piece Jacinda fan. Some commentators leave me with the impression Jacinda is the second coming .Who is asking the hard questions about where to from here .Churchill got UK through WWII but lost the next election . Complacency could be Labours downfall especially as the economic news gets more grimmer over the next few weeks.
Trevor money is very important we all know this but no amount of money is worth one single life lost to Covid. When you increase the number of people you bring in you increase the risks. Now the ones advocating for open the borders asap, and saying leave it to the private market are they really thinking about us or themselves. The private market has failed and they work on the premise of making a profit often at all costs. The problem is if and when the Covid gets into our communities who are more at risks? and how will the private companies protect those at more risks? it is too easy for people like john key to say open the borders he isn’t responsible for NZers. He was and he quit.
Exactly, the PM and Ashley Ashley Bloomfield have to live with the decisions they make and their jobs on the line. Key and Clarkes advice has no repercussions to them. Throw in the tosser Hoskings advice ,of which I would suggest our death toll would be much, much higher?
ìBert I have warned you before about listening to Hoskings . He makes me shudder so it must be so much harder for your blood pressure
Haha yes Trevor, my bad.
I’m now only listening to hear when the Hosk,’s next defamation case takes place, ala John Tamahere. He makes so many false statements Trev, he must give his employees a hangover.
Civid is
jonkey was never responsible for NZders that’s why the equity gap expanded, poverty increased, national debt rose , Kiwis lost their ownership of state energy, the health system was degraded, we were secretly signed up to TPP so potentially lost our sovereignty to US corporates, changed our status in the US war on the world and dropped us into NATO along with many other negative assets such as a bullying hair tugging deviant lying con man as a PM
‘National is not remotely interested in Covid-19. They’ve conceded that battle to you. The economy is the ONLY narrative they’re interested in being on the table.’
Ha ha ha!
So, I wonder what National will be interested in when the last vestiges of the economy collapse later in the year. Selling bottled water to people unable to access it via the reticulated system, I suppose. Maybe clear-felling a few forests to sell firewood for home heating and cooking to epople who can’t afford electricity. How about privatising the distribution of food now that food banks are nearly at breaking point.
It really is time to brace for impact as far as the old economy [of create-money-out-of-thin-air and loot-and-pollute the commons] is concerned. Or as Chris Martenson puts it:
‘It’s Time To Position For The Endgame
Are you, like us, sensing that things are poised to fall apart?’
https://www.peakprosperity.com/its-time-to-position-for-the-endgame/
The sad aspect of all this is that the information Chris Martenson bases his forecast [of economic collapse] on has been around for well over a decade, and STILL people absolutely refuse become informed or to prepare, and somehow think things are going to carry on much as before September 2019 (when the shit started to hit the fan via the repo markets several months before Covid-19 emerged).
Yes agree with you Jacindafan hopefully she will ditch those catch phases rhetoric and be frank and honest. And it is equally important to give people hope and inspire them so they know there is light at the end of the Covid tunnel. Yes we will ramp up the quarantine as long as we can maintain the high standard and do our very best to keep it out of our communities. Yes we will bring in the right and very best people we need to improve and drive our economy providing it is safe to do so. Yes we will ensure before we open our borders more we can manage the increased risks that more people bring. Yes we will make sure it is completely safe. Yes we will have stringent measures in place at our borders. Yes we will open our borders eventually with our island neighbours. A change of tact is needed.
She did say that Key and English had managed the economy well, but then also said that it was at the cost of many New Zealanders suffering and sleeping in cars and suchlike, and was thus a failure – economical wins at the cost of human suffering is a failure, so she did slam them nicely there. Her speech has been criticised, but I found it quite uplifting with her encompassing much in the time that she had.
She also subletly put Hosking in his place this morning suggesting if she’d taken his advice NZ would be in big trouble now.
It’s like a ratchet isn’t it? When national are in everything gets worse. When Labour are in nothing gets better. You vote Labour to keep National out but Labour never reverses the tide.
I wish there was an alternative, but I guess the powers that be won’t ever allow that.
Correct by observation
I don’t want to burst your bubble, but I think it’s important to be realistic. I think that it is probably too early to say that Labour has the election in the bag. There’s still 6 (long, busy, and no doubt eventful) weeks to go. Public opinion can be fickle and change swiftly, especially if external circumstances change and errors in judgement are made.
I think it’s important to remember that in the past 14 years, the vast majority of polls have shown that the public largely favours National. Some polls early in the year even had National in the lead. You can’t just take polls at face value, as there is always a lot of history and factors behind people’s opinions, and you don’t get a sense of how strong attachments to a leader or a party truly are. The “rally around the flag” effect which occurs in a crisis is obviously still quite strong here, but it is also a temporary phenomenon and it will fade with time.
If we assume that the statistics from the latest CB poll are roughly correct – it had Labour beating National by 21 points (53 vs 32). If you count the Greens out (5) and count Act in (5), then that goes down to a 16 point difference. That means that if 9% of all voters switch from Labour to National or Act – about 1 in 10 voters – then National & Act could actually win the election. With 6 weeks to go, that’s an average of 1.5 (median) voters swinging to the right each week, which is definitely achievable. Even if the Greens do make it back in, unfortunately, the figures that I’ve calculated are not that dramatically different.
Ama,
You’ve read my mail. My thoughts pretty much in one.
The good news for the remaining 6 weeks is that Jacinda will be Jacinda and Collins will be Chucky.
Result =
Labour governing alone….National Party on route to the nearest landfill. Very sad of course 🙂
There is only one time to count your chickens.
The COVID Election Postponement, you mean.