Comparing the negotiating teams

ByMartyn Bradbury

The negotiating teams of each of the Political Parties vying to form the next Government say much about the relationship each of the Leaders are needing and how they expect a possible coalition alliance to play out.

GREENS: The team is led by leader James Shaw, MP Eugenie Sage, acting chief of staff Tory Whanau, party co-convenor Debs Martin and party campaign committee member and former communications director Andrew Campbell.

James has been solid as leader with the curve ball he was thrown, but does he have the skill to negotiate a new Government? Eugine knows the pulse of the activist base and will have a very good feel on what will and won’t be accepted by the grassroots. Tory was thrown in after staff fell on their swords post Metiria, Debs will also have a feel for the membership, but it’s Andrew Campbell’s inclusion that gives hope that someone will be able to gain the most for Green voters. Campbell is one of the Greens best assets and his strategic mind has been sadly lacking within current Green tactics.

Surprised they left Deborah Morris-Travers out of the Green negotiating team, as a former NZ First MP who worked with Winston in negotiating the 1996 coalition agreement, it’s their closest connection to NZ First.

What Greens need: At 6% the Greens have to get some immediate retail policy wins in any negotiation or risk being seen as politically meaningless. The Green Card free youth public transport policy fits that description perfectly, as would the increase in benefits and removal of puritanical welfare punishment regime. The third thing they should push for is the carbon neutral by 2050 plan they want to adopt so they have a fixed environmental goal they can work and point to.

The Greens can gain more social policy wins than they can environmental reforms right now and they need to take those wins and build their support back up off the back of those retail politics wins.

What Greens should do: The Greens have relied upon the Wellington clique for their tactics and strategy teams for far too fucking long and look at what it got them? 8 weeks ago they were 15%, now they barely crawl over the threshold, there needs to be a serious purge within the Green tactics team. This is the time they need to bring in outside perspectives to truly sharpen their strategic goals because what got them here won’t be good enough to survive 3 years in coalition Government. They also need to keep their middle class identity politics pure temple activists who see Winston as an anathema to their cosmopolitan cultural elitism on a bloody leash.

Everyone desperately needs a holiday from Twitter.

 

 

LABOUR: Jacinda & Kelvin with referral team

Wanting to keep it clean and direct, Jacinda & Kelvin will be able to bring in specialist team members who all have close relationships with Winston – David Parker, Willie Jackson, Stuart Nash and Peeni Henare all have close relationships with Winston, it is these relationships Labour needs to make a 3 year Government work. If Jacinda can keep this about the friendships and relationships she has within her Caucus, she will succeed but you just can’t rule out the ability of Labour Party Wellington dickheads to screw this up.

Labour Party Wellington dickheads will try and force themselves into the negotiations and start making the sort of bureaucratic demands that Winston loathes. Jacinda has to keep the Labour Party Wellington dickheads, (the very same who had seen the Party plummet to 23%) asfar away from the negotiations as possible. Seeing as it was Jacinda that managed to claw back a tiny amount of respect in the final result, she should make the calls and not the Labour Party Wellington dickhead brigade.

What Labour need: Labour is a working class party with middle class pretensions. It can’t tell if it’s Arthur or Martha and if they did ever decide, they’d need a 6 month hui to work out pronouns. Labour didn’t plunge to 23% by mistake, their piss weak policy combined with shitty salesmanship wasn’t an overnight blunder, it was market reaction to the meaningless and overtly cautious Labour policy that manages to be spineless and gutless at the same time so Labour desperately need big ideas and huge vision.

Labour need the Greens social welfare policy to fit alongside their house building policy and their $19b boost to social infrastructure.  Labour also need NZ First’s macro economic reforms for the big vision stuff.

What Labour should do: Hilariously, Labour are far more neoliberal than NZ First, this is an opportunity for Jacinda to out manoeuvre history and put Labour on the right side of the people by giving Winston big ideas. It will not be enough to sit down with Winston and say, ‘this policy is ok by us and this policy isn’t’, they need far more imagination than that. They need to sit down with Winston and say ‘your policy mixed with our values could create this’. The ‘this’ could be allowing the SuperFund to invest in regional and urban infrastructure or public transport that carries a toll/fare cost that is paid back to the fund over 30 years. They need to present Winston with a vision rather than policy check list and it could be best presented by Michael Cullen who has already been contacted to help out with the negotiations.

Jacinda should see this as an opportunity to go beyond the mediocrity of Labour’s policies and present the real change that inspired so many NZers to rally and take Labour from 23% to 37% (after specials get counted).

 

 

NATIONAL: English, Gerry Brownlee and Todd McClay

McClay is on the team because Winston is a close personal friend and Gerry Brownlee’s involvement suggests National will do what National always do, bribe. This team will turn up with the baubles of office for Winston and they will offer him the choicest cuts. Winston will be offered the US Ambassadorship, Deputy PM and an electorate deal in Northland. National will simply pull out the cheque book and ask, ‘how much Winston’. The problem for National is that their entire economic model is built upon exploitation of water for corporate farming, mass immigration and a speculative housing bubble – all things Winston loathes so the bribe option is the best National have.

What National need: National right now must be doing everything to delegitimise any possible Labour led Government. By attacking MMP and generating noise about cutting  deal with the Greens, National need to sow the seed that the lefties have somehow cheated the system and stolen the result. Luckily for National the majority of NZers are fucking thick as shit when it comes to understanding MMP and the right wing corporate media are easily brought on board to convince the sleepy hobbits of muddle Nu Zilind that the feminists and Maaaori’s have tricked us and stolen the precious.

You will know how frightened the right wing have become based on how shrill Matthew Hooton and Ben Thomas become.

What National should do: National desperately need to keep this personal. What they need to do is go onto twitter and copy and paste some of the Wellington Twitteratti’s more aggressive identity politics comments made about Winston Peter’s and show him these. They need to convince Winston that the viciousness of Green supporters and the types within Labour who tried to have Willie Jackson expelled when he was first announced as candidate won’t be able to help themselves but destroy any arrangement with Winston.

 

NZ First: Winston

It will be Winston and a small group of trusted advisors around him who will make the decision, not the Party. He knows his party shrank in the last election, that the 15% he was going to romp home with this year never eventuated in part because of Jacinda, in part because of the real weakness of NZ First’s base and in part because Winston conducted one of the worst campaigns of his life.

He wants legacy and needs it now. Labour can offer him the kind of changes in immigration, macro economic innovations and regional rebuild that he needs to make that legacy meaningful. National can offer him bribes.

The fact Winston has backed down on a referendum for the Maori seats shows more a realisation by Winston that redneck dog whistling for provincial votes gained him nothing and that his real base is an older NZ who have seen their quality of life eroded by the 30 year neoliberal experiment. It is the economic realities of 1980s neoliberalism that binds his electorate, not the culture wars of the 1970s.

Winston won’t want his policies spoken back to him at the negotiating table, he will want to see what they could bloom into when mixed with the values and resources of another political party.

Winston is also convinced that the second wave of the GFC will smash NZ when the global economy gets hit next and will want to see a strong State that can withstand that shockwave.

In the end it will be the Party that can promise to keep whatever he builds with them the longest who will become Government.

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23 Comments

  1. As we let the dust settle on the election final count; —– we heard on last night’s talkback someone tipped a caller, saying there was a whhole missing electoral centre of votes that they are scabbling around trying to find now!!!!

    If true what a fucking cirus this corrupt past government operated.

  2. Nice post about the Greens , … and I really do think the Greens HAVE had a political impact through the years as evidenced by,- almost begrudgingly, -the larger party’s , obviously Labour picking up the ball and starting to run with it , or at least , making noises about filthy waterways.

    But it is precisely the social policy’s that I like about the Greens.

    And of all the political party’s that made it back into parliament , – the Greens are the shining light. Their social policy’s are the ones that best mirror the pre 1984 neo liberal hijacking , – almost diametrically opposed , and thats what we need in this country.

    I also like the last part about :

    … ” They also need to keep their middle class identity politics pure temple activists who see Winston as an anathema to their cosmopolitan cultural elitism on a bloody leash ” …

    Hear hear to that !!! A thousand times over !!!

    It is symptomatic of the Lefts impotence that they ever gave up in defeat and indulged themselves in identity politics instead. And rightly so , – have been royally shown up for the impotent ‘ third way ‘ voices they are by the likes of Jeremy Corbyn and Bernie Sanders.

    The Labour Party Wellington Dickheads
    ………………………………………………

    That deserves mention in itself ! However , nicely summed up by your paragraph :

    … ” Labour Party Wellington dickheads will try and force themselves into the negotiations and start making the sort of bureaucratic demands that Winston loathes. Jacinda has to keep the Labour Party Wellington dickheads, (the very same who had seen the Party plummet to 23%) as far away from the negotiations as possible. Seeing as it was Jacinda that managed to claw back a tiny amount of respect in the final result, she should make the calls and not the Labour Party Wellington dickhead brigade ” …

    Superb commentary !!!

    And I like the idea of letting NZ First off the leash ! They have many ideas to return this country back to the successful model it was pre 1984. That year. That year the neo liberals embarked on their program of theft of the public purse and their assets. Winston Peters and NZ First are no friend of the neo liberal. And to work in , presenting an overall vision , – presenting the big picture with huge vision !

    That’s what we want !

    No mincing around , no pontificating of navels, – just get out there and make it happen ! To return this country to a real social democracy there’s got to be a bold , dynamic can do attitude. Nothing less will suffice, and Labour , Greens and NZ First are the ones to do it if they don’t allow the naysayers and the negative talking heads any traction.

    And this is where it gets serious.

    … ” Winston is also convinced that the second wave of the GFC will smash NZ when the global economy gets hit next and will want to see a strong State that can withstand that shockwave ” …

    There is no doubt its going to come. All indicators from local and overseas experts are predicting this , and we need to move fast to shore up our country’s social aspects ie ; make it similar to what we had pre 1984 to prevent widespread catastrophe and civil unrest.

    And to those who criticize NZ First and Peters claiming he is supporting the current status quo of neo liberalism : WRONG. And your statement below encapsulates this perfectly ,…

    … ” The fact Winston has backed down on a referendum for the Maori seats shows more a realisation by Winston that redneck dog whistling for provincial votes gained him nothing and that his real base is an older NZ who have seen their quality of life eroded by the 30 year neoliberal experiment. It is the economic realities of 1980s neoliberalism that binds his electorate, not the culture wars of the 1970s ” …

    As for National.

    They are contemptuous beyond belief for their destructive , punitive social policy’s , – they have consistently acted out of their ideology of self interest and crony capitalism and pandering to local and foreign big business. To the point of almost treason.

    The only thing to say about them is they should be in opposition for decades, – and even then, that wouldn’t be long enough. Long enough at least for NZ to return to a true, sustainable social footing that benefits ‘ the many , – not the few’ , – and such that it is beyond their deceits to ever reverse that process..

  3. Seeing as it was Jacinda that managed to claw back “a tiny” amount of respect in the final result??? Given that National thought it would sleep walk into a coveted 4th term just 7 weeks prior and considering the type of dirty campaign National and msm ran, I wouldnt call it tiny I would call it HUGE. Andrew Little is very pleased. Labour’s numbers on the night with an adjustment yet to come with the advance/specials and knocking out National’s support partners have put them in a position to hold talks to form a government that previously no one thought would happen. Thats massively significant.

  4. Quite an astute summary, my little Bombarino. You’ve certainly got this pretty well sussed.

    BUT!

    Is Winston really going to apply logic and analysis?

    And what about his need for utu?

    A good read but as they say, time will tell…

    1. “Is Winston really going to apply logic and analysis?”
      Actually that’s something he’s not too bad at – possibly over-analysis at the expense of the bleeding obvious.
      Most MSmedia muppets fail to appreciate that, then have to desperately backtrack and pretend they were ‘on-board’ all the time.
      Christ! You just have to watch this morning’s “The Nation” with a host whose record doesn’t amount to much other than her being dressed and fawned all over by equally facile ‘ in croud ‘ bubblistas and a “really really rad T-shirt she was caught wearing”.
      No doubt she’ll pop up again during the week on whatever it is – oh yes! ” The AM show “, going forward, desperately trying to prove and justify her relevancy.
      The problem is, there are one or two who aren’t that bad that lend their presence to the whole sham, and therefore to the like’s of Liza’s legitimacy.
      A lot of us also have mortgages to pay

    2. Fran in panic mode, N.Z. Herald today, labeling Winston a traitor. But we now see how she thinks a Labour lead govt would look…

      “Meanwhile, businesses ponder whether they are going to be hit with new taxes, be forced to pay staff more, allowed to sponsor immigrants to work on their farms or in their firms, face personal attacks if they are highly paid chief executives, and more attacks if they are foreign investors (particularly Chinese) – the list goes on. There is anecdotal evidence that firms are sitting on their investment intentions until the shape of the new Government is determined”

      The last sentence sounds like blackmail Fran and very much sounds like it is you that is the traitor Fran. Time for your meds I guess.

      Fran forgot to add the attacks on ordinary N.Z. citizens but then in her eyes they don’t count.

    3. JS Bark. To aanswer I say below;

      “Is Winston really going to apply logic and analysis?

      And what about his need for utu?

      A good read but as they say, time will tell…”

      Yes he knows timing critical to is success.

      He wont waste time on on revenge at all.

      He will go to the core issues he knows what will save ur country this time.

  5. Now I know what to get her for Christmas – a designer bib. In fact I could go all entrepreneurial and start making them

  6. Funny old world eh?
    I just saw Andrew Little and wife in Tory Street looking utterly relaxed. Que Sera Sera.
    Obviously taking a break from the Labour Party Wellington consultancy, the Green Garret Street fluffers, and the National Party Auckland, Woikatta, Quoinstearn and Baya Plenny stiffs – oh, and the trials and tribulations of dear wee Matty.
    Wasn’t all THAT long ago that SS Joyce was jogging down the same route heading for the what plays in Vegas stays in Vegas. Thank Christ he wasn’t in lycra.

  7. “The problem for National is that their entire economic model is built upon exploitation of water for corporate farming, mass immigration and a speculative housing bubble – all things Winston loathes so the bribe option is the best National have……”
    Actually its a bit worse than that in terms of the mass immigration bit. In that regard, it’s bloody close to people trafficking.
    http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/china/as-chinas-economy-slows-business-cults-prey-on-young-job-seekers/articleshow/60881676.cms

    1. It is people trafficking.

      Activists have been threatened by people traffickers. And that’s not all they are involved with. The government has essentially done a deal with the devil – with transnational crime syndicates with plants inside the likes of RAW…

  8. “Winston will be offered the US Ambassadorship.”

    Does that mean Grosser gets the boot? Perhaps National plans to recall him from Washington so he can assist with resurrecting the corpse known as TPP 11.

  9. What’s most important here is not who ends up holding the reigns of power, but what combination of policies can get the parliamentary majorities to be passed. As such, this is a time for discretion and diplomacy, not spewing bile. Your insider insights are appreciated Bomber, but could they be delivered without the melodramatic cursing, and without calling groups of our allies “dickheads”? Even if the lack of discretion and diplomacy in their online behaviour invites it, cooler heads need to prevail right now.

  11. @marc – it will come – sadly NZ does tend to follow the English path and we find ourseleves in a similar (sold off) situation to the Uk thanks to neo liberalism.

  14. Activists have been threatened by people traffickers. And that’s not all they are involved with. The government has essentially done a deal with the devil – with transnational crime syndicates with plants inside the likes of RAW…

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