Climate Change Armageddon vs Economic Global Meltdown or both?

ByMartyn Bradbury

If climate change as an existential threat to our species refuses to motivate Governments into action, maybe losing money might? The latest research from the Fed spells out how climate change could spark the next financial meltdown…

Fed Researcher Warns Climate Change Could Spur Financial Crisis
Climate change is becoming increasingly relevant to central bankers because losses from natural disasters that are magnified by higher temperatures and elevated sea levels could spark a financial crisis, a Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco researcher found.

“Climate-related financial risks could affect the economy through elevated credit spreads, greater precautionary saving, and, in the extreme, a financial crisis,’’ Glenn Rudebusch, the San Francisco Fed’s executive vice president for research, wrote in a paper published Monday.

“There could also be direct effects in the form of larger and more frequent macroeconomic shocks associated with the infrastructure damage, agricultural losses, and commodity price spikes caused by the droughts, floods, and hurricanes amplified by climate change,’’ according to Rudebusch, who is also a senior policy adviser at the reserve bank.

While the Fed’s primary policy tools — short-term interest rates and large-scale asset purchases — aren’t designed to address phenomenon like global warming, policy makers may need to take climate-related damages into account when considering the long-term economic outlook, the researcher wrote. “Many central banks already include climate change in their assessments of future economic and financial risks when setting monetary and financial supervisory policy,” he wrote.

…this at a time when Auckland is starting to see its own climate change future…

Extreme heat, disease and rising seas: how climate change threatens Auckland
Aucklanders could be suffering an equivalent of three months of extra-hot days within only a century’s time – with residents in southern and western suburbs likely to be hit the hardest.

A sweeping, first-of-its-kind assessment, released during a three-day city symposium this week, has laid bare Auckland’s possible future under climate change.

It warns of hotter days, wilder storms, higher seas, ecological devastation and a wave of pests and disease.

One report examined the city’s vulnerability to extreme heat, finding that, if the planet continued to warm on its present trajectory, there could be at least 10 to 15 extra-hot days in Auckland each year by 2040.

…and the outlook for the domestic economy has turned bleak…

NZ dollar’s ‘savage’ fall as Reserve Bank adopts gloomy outlook
The Reserve Bank has kept its official cash rate (OCR) on hold at 1.75 per cent, as expected, but said the next move is likely to be down.

At the last OCR review in February, the bank said the next move could be up or down.

But today, the bank said: “Given the weaker global economic outlook and reduced momentum in domestic spending, the more likely direction of our next OCR move is down.”

ASB chief economist Nick Tuffley said the bank’s next move could be as early as May.

…because the global outlook is tripping into meltdown from Australia…

Experts share grim warning over Australia’s economic future
An Australian CEO has warned we could soon find ourselves in “a world of hurt” as the troubles plaguing the global economy worsen.

That’s according to tech entrepreneur Matt Barrie, from freelancing marketplace Freelancer.

In a recent interview with the Australian Financial Review, Barrie shared his views on the challenges facing Australia and the wider world — and his predictions are grim.

“The global economy is troubled. It’s low growth everywhere. It’s questionable if we ever exited the GFC,” Barrie told the publication.

…to China…

China to slash taxes, boost lending to prop up slowing economy
BEIJING (Reuters) – China sought to shore up its slowing economy through billions of dollars in planned tax cuts and infrastructure spending, with economic growth at its weakest in almost 30 years due to softer domestic demand and a trade war with the United States.

…to America, Britain and Japan…

Wall Street drops sharply; global factory activity falls; some bond yields invert; trade deal talks stutter; China blocks Canada;

Equity markets shifted gear lower at the end of last week. On Friday on Wall Street, the S&P500 dropped a sharp -1.9% wiping out more than a tenth of its 2019 gains. And that follows Europe which was down a similar amount (London fell more than -2%). An this was even though Asian equity markets closed largely unchanged.

Driving the rout has been very weak factory data for March. The Eurozone flash manufacturing PMI dropped sharply, down -1.7 points from an index that was already showing a contraction. It is now at a 6 year low.

In the US, the same survey dropped as well even if it is still indicating an expansion – but it is weakening fast. The output, new orders, and employment components all weakened.

After Japanese markets closed, the Japan PMI came in worse; factory output fell at its fastest pace in three years and the sector is now contracting.

…all the while the hegemonic economic structure is almost on the verge of collapse…

Debt-clogged world close to tipping point of recession
The risk of global recession has suddenly jumped several notches, as the accumulated damage from US President Donald Trump’s trade wars and worldwide monetary tightening is taking a bigger toll than hoped.

A mounting weight of evidence suggests the world is one shock away from a contractionary vortex that would be extremely hard to control.

In the US, the Federal Reserve’s instant tracking gauges of GDP growth have halved since late January. They are approaching stall speed.

In China it is becoming clearer that the Communist leadership either cannot or will not engineer another break-neck credit boom to revive an economy slipping into structural stagnation. Stimulus is trickling through but it is a pale image of past reflation cycles.

…so global economic meltdown and climate change armageddon are linked and the enormity of that armageddon is still not being honestly faced by policy makers…

David Wallace-Wells on climate: ‘People should be scared – I’m scared’

David Wallace-Wells’s apocalyptic depiction of a world made uninhabitable by climate chaos caused an outcry when it was published in New York magazine in 2017. Based on the worst-case scenarios foreseen by science, his article portrayed a world of drought, plague and famine, in which acidified oceans drown coastal homelands, dormant diseases are released from ancient ice, conflicts surge, economies collapse, human cognitive abilities decline and heat stress becomes more intolerable in New York City than in present-day Bahrain. Critics called this irresponsibly alarmist. Supporters said it was a long-overdue antidote to climate complacency. Whatever your view, it was among the best-read climate articles in US history.

…or read this even worse analysis…

The study on collapse they thought you should not read – yet

A research paper concluding that climate-induced collapse is now inevitable, was recently rejected by anonymous reviewers of an academic journal.

It has been released directly by the Professor who wrote it, to promote discussion of the necessary deep adaptation to climate chaos.

“I am releasing this paper immediately, directly, because I can’t wait any longer in exploring how to learn the implications of the social collapse we now face,” explained the author Dr Bendell, a full Professor of Sustainability Leadership.  

…denial has led us to this and corporate greed has inoculated policy makers from engaging in real change…

Top oil firms spending millions lobbying to block climate change policies, says report
The largest five stock market listed oil and gas companies spend nearly $200m (£153m) a year lobbying to delay, control or block policies to tackle climate change, according to a new report.

Chevron, BP and ExxonMobil were the main companies leading the field in direct lobbying to push against a climate policy to tackle global warming, the report said.

…there is a terrible reckoning building.

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27 Comments

  1. It will be a wonderful let off for the neoliberal establishment and the finance industry if they can blame climate change for the collapse won’t it!
    Not our fault! nothing to do with a flawed ideology; It wasn’t our greed; who could have foreseen it? Market forces and unbridled capitalism was working great until that pesky climate change intervened.
    D J S

  2. Yeah well Dr Bendell who’s study was rejected for fear of spooking the horses isn’t the only academic to be rejected. Jordan Peterson’s fellowship was also rejected from Cambridge University. So there’s a lot of fear going around at the moment going around and fear is good because people can snap out of that. People can’t really snap out of being idiots.

    Everything stated in the above blog is looking tippy toppy and as I said, Americas got one, maybe two more medium intensive wars left in em and there rise as undisputed Super Power will fall and they’ll begin the decline as all empires do.

  3. To actually slow climate change, which is the only option left now, we need to have a swift and radical and GLOBAL change of our economic model, while swiftly switching from fossil fuel technology to alternative and largely regenerative energy technology.

    So far THIS IS NOT HAPPENING. We get lots of talk, of good intentions, of some international agreements (from which some opt out, or re which many do not do as they commit themselves), but nothing that will bring decisive and swift change.

    Governments and politicians in general are shit scared to put new pressures and demands on voters, as they will rebel, businesses are firmly locked into a basically fossil fuel based economic system, so they feel it is very costly and high risk for individual operators to make a switch as it would be needed.

    And as business, with the finances being invested largely in fossil fuel related technology, does not want to lose and write off investments they actioned, they put the brakes on the needed changes.

    Workers depend on business employers (most), are also brainwashed into consumerism, and are working and saving for their own interests (in traditional forms), so will not bite the hand that feeds them.

    Governments depend on businesses, to keep the machinery running, so to say, hence are scared of upsetting business with law changes, additional rules, costs and so forth.

    See the problem? Add the global inter-connectedness, inter dependencies, and the growth obsession, as else all is supposed to fall apart, and we are screwed.

    Hence lots of words, hand wringing and ‘good intentions’, but NO real action.

    So we can read such reports about costs facing us, the costs to stop this to happen, they will also be HUGE.

    1. A very different model of employment is based on Cooperatives where the wealth produced by labour is shared. No corporations needed nor share markets and financial parasitism we suffer from locally and globally.
      The bludger barons loose their power and people wake up to the myth of rich employing poor and keeping them poor.

    1. I suppose you may also find many young black males, possibly even females, in at least less developed countries also denying climate change, they may not even know what it means.

  6. CO2 won’t be brought under control until population growth is brought under control. All the “Greenies” refuse to acknowledge that population control is the only real solution to this problem, given that no developing country (which are well over 2/3rds of the planet) are going to give up cheap carbon-based energy in lieu of economic/wealth growth for their people (a far more immediate priority than climate change).
    Indeed, given the amount of energy required for food production (especially for fertilisers), the “green solution” is looking more like a “final solution” for a lot of densely populated countries given the amount of starvation that will be forthcoming. The population of Earth has doubled every 50 years or so and will continue to do so into the foreseeable future; CO2 emissions will follow suit regardless of what we do, especially looking at where the core of the population growth is happening (i.e. developing countries). Those advocating “Green Policy” need to take this into account, but they won’t because addressing this doesn’t fit the rest of their social agenda.

    1. I certainly am taking those worrying aspects into account. Greenies in Parliament and outside do though tend to ignore this, they live in urban or suburban comfort, and in their own ‘developed bubbles’, dreaming they have the answers, e.g. ban plastic bags and bring in more ‘recycling’ of rubbish that should never have been produced in the first place. Most have NO clue about agriculture, except of the end products they buy at supermarkets and eat at home or in restaurants.

      One James Shaw may be good with numbers, and smart about accounting and what else he has experience in, but he is as disconnected as many others.

      Maybe Greenpeace get close to what is needed, but they cater for a minority, as most have little time for such ‘activism’ and self restrictions. Habits of comfort and wasting are hard to combat.

    2. Nitrium, what you say is correct. My guess is that human population needs to drop by at least a third. The problem is to find governments who will commit to doing this and it must be all governments because if one nation ducks their responsibility the rest will naturally follow.
      Then the governments will need to say who dies or doesn’t, and why, because there wont be many volunteers.
      I have pointed this out several times in the TDB and you should see the abuse…..
      So you are right, Nitrium, its the only sure solution but no government will touch it. So it will fail and there is no alternative that offers a workable solution.

      1. NZ Greenies are suggesting we lower NZ’s CO2 footprint when we represent just 0.1% of global emissions – as if that will somehow make a difference. It doesn’t – we all breathe the same air (indeed every breath we take contains a few of the exact same air molecules breathed by any individual that has ever lived). What “the West” needs to realise, is that we owe almost the entirety of our standard of living and wealth to economic growth fuelled by carbon. Now we are attempting to mandate that developing nations can’t be allowed to do the same, which we know will result in the death of potentially billions of people. That idea is not only going to be met with crickets but with outright hostility, and rightfully so imo.

        1. “NZ Greenies are suggesting we lower NZ’s CO2 footprint when we represent just 0.1% of global emissions – as if that will somehow make a difference.”

          Nitrium that should not be a factor in addressing co2 ejissions

          Every nation should be doing its bit

          We’re all on the same planet and no one is exempt . It would be like first class passengers on the Titanic complaining they should have to do their bit to save lives because there were more lower class, “steerage class” passengers who should do more

          Its ultimarely a ludicrous argument

  7. All ingredients for the system crash are there.

    As things stand now some sort of a terrestrial ‘system’ crash is unavoidable, ‘system’ meaning the Natural Spheres of Earth as well as the human-made modifications and exploitation of these.

    All ingredients for the system crash are there. We don’t know exactly when it will happen, how it will evolve over time and location, and what will trigger events. But all ingredients for further and continued destruction are there and gradually moving in place.

    As most of the persons presently in charge for governing parts of the system do not respond in a timely, meaningful and adequate manner, those governed through their inactivity have very, very limited choices. One limited choice still left is gaining political power by the ballot.

    Looking upon human history and experiences made over the past 2000 years, radical ecological and socialist organizations, understanding the mechanics of class and socio-economic structure, are a good bet for swift and appropriate reactions in the best interest of the common men and women.

    No future election in NZ without such an organization…. sounds good, or does it?

    https://www.libertarianism.org/columns/ancient-origins-modern-debate-socialism-plato-aristotle

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chariot_Allegory

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/mar/21/cyclone-idai-climate-change-africa-fossil-fuels

    https://news.yahoo.com/around-1-85-million-people-affected-cyclone-idai-090942400.html

    https://qz.com/africa/1581065/the-destruction-of-cyclone-idai-in-mozambique-as-seen-from-aerial-photos/

    1. The SUN is the main driver of weather. Known Science.

      No, Iain, that’s not quite true. Weather is influenced by the Sun. But climate is influenced by other factors such as the composition of the atmosphere, which then retains (or reflects) heat from the sun.

      If we had no atmosphere, there’d be no climate and no weather. (Like the Moon.)

      The main driver of climate change is the increasing level of CO2, methane, water vapour, nitrous oxide, etc. Pointing to the sun is the tactic used by agents of the fossil fuel industry.

      With all the data; all the science; the only question is why you choose to side with the fossil fuel industry.

      1. How is your maths Frank?

        A little perspective and critical thinking.

        N2 – 78.084%
        O2 – 20.9476%
        Ar – 0.934%
        CO2 – 0.0314%
        Ne – 0.001818%
        CH4 – 0.0002%
        He – 0.000524%
        Kr – 0.000114%
        H2 – 0.00005%
        Xe – 0.0000087%
        O3 – 0.000007%
        NO2 – 0.000002%
        I2 – 0.000001%
        CO – trace
        NH3 — trace

        Add up the first 3 gases on the list = 99.96%

        OK, CO2 now at around 400ppm = 0.04% = 100%

        All figures approx. The rest are meaningless for this exercise.

        (Poor old farmers methane @ 0.0002%, Short life anyway)

        See a problem here Frank?

        https://www.thoughtco.com/chemical-composition-of-air-604288

        I know what you’re going to say. “But what does your own link
        say about the greenhouse ability of CO2 and CH4 etc?”

        It’s plain codswallups Frank. It’s a scam.

        Water vapour is THE major greenhouse gas that traps heat
        and if it were not for the geoengineering putting tons and tons
        of particles (mainly coal fly ash – peer reviewed) into the
        atmosphere on a daily basis, causing cloud cover for days/weeks
        on end, we might get back to normal. Vit D levels low.

        Let alone all life from trees/plants, bees/moths/insects and higher
        animals/humanity being saturated with aluminum.

        More particles, more cloud, more rain/floods,more extreme weather.

        Without going into more droughts and extreme wild fires etc the
        whole thing is a huge scam to carbon tax / bankrupt nations, business
        and people to have full control. Deprive humanity of cheap energy.

        All while China, the largest polluter by far and India get off scot free.

        This burden is being put on the West only.

        Take the boot off the throat of science and let us access the free energy
        available all around us. Tesla technology.

        While I have had my rant, get off the Kool Aid with this standard
        finger pointing about fossil fuels.
        (which are not fossil by the way – another myth.)

        The Sun IS the main driver of weather/climate, just as it is for all
        the Planets in the Solar System.

        And it’s NOT included in the models on purpose.

        Cheers.

        1. “It’s plain codswallups Frank. It’s a scam”

          Iain, that’s a pretty big worldwide scam. Obviously only you and non-scientific sources know The Truth.

  11. One problem.The sea levels are not rising as predicted.All we have is the IPCC and Nasa[ you know, the ones that can no longer put a manned spacecraft into orbit but once could put a man on the moon] falsifying data to make it fit in with climate change predictions.I am not saying that the sea levels will not rise to the predicted level.I am saying that to date they have not risen.I await real uncorrupted scientific data.Nasa has gone from being an organisation that religiously followed processes that resulted in excellent science, to become the corrupt organisation it is today.Like every scientific organisation in the U.S Empire today!!!

    1. “Nasa[ you know, the ones that can no longer put a manned spacecraft into orbit but once could put a man on the moon] falsifying data to make it fit in with climate change predictions”

      Pete, your assertion that NASA has “falsified data” has been challenged before. You have been unable to substantiate that very serious allegation.

      1. Wrong Frank. Dr. Warner who was in charge of the tidal gauges substantiated it!

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