Can the NZ Left win the 2026 Election? Should it win?
With the rise of NZ First making a Labour/Green/MP Government less likely (thanks to Eru, Doc, Mariameno and alienating woke identity politics inside the Greens), the question this election year, can the NZ Left win, and should it?
Labour – They are incremental and frightened to do anything meaningful when it comes to actually regulating Capitalism in NZ. After failing to build 100 000 State Homes and Affordable Houses alongside blowing $52million for a bike lane across the Harbour Bridge that never happened, there is a fear to actually try. Oh and child poverty barely moved last time they were in power. NZ Labour have lost their mojo and aren’t sure what they stand for any longer.
The Good News is that there is a realisation within Labour that they need to do more than tinker and actually have to produce policy that lowers the cost of living for people. They are also decent people who simply wouldn’t be causing the type of economic vandalism and societal carnage National, ACT and NZF have embarked upon.
Greens – They have been inoculated from any real polling drop during their internal fights with the identity politics cliques that backed Darleen Tana, but with the large number of young people who have fled to Australia alongside the negativity algorithms that put people off politics alongside their alienating woke activists driving men away from the Left, they have seen body blow after body blow to their polling that now risks them losing their 3rd party status. If NZF over take them, Chloe, Marama and the whole woke circus will be first to bend the knee and suck Winston’s boot. If the choice is between another ACT/NATIONAL/NZF Government or a Labour/NZF/Green Government, Chloe and Marama have no choice but to kiss Winston’s shoes.
The Good News is that the Greens themselves have realised how alienating their woke extremism has become because they’ve had to deal with it directly inside the Party. Woke on Woke Friendly Fire is the worst type of safe space micro aggression policing you can ever be forced to tolerate and a big swig of their own vegan medicine has grown hairs on all their collective chests. The focus is economic justice before social justice and if they pick up Mamdani cost of living policies, like free public transport and free ECE, they can storm Auckland ahead of Labour. They also recognise the need for a united front with the Māori Party in any post election negotiations with Labour which will force Labour away from being incremental.
Te Pati Māori Party – Jesus wept. What more can be said? Punters will blame the Māori Party leadership for the fall out after Eru, Doc and Mariameno, but the leadership deserved loyalty, not plotting and the meltdown has robbed Left wing voters of a Labour/Green/MP Government. Lots of people have a right to be pissed off.
The Good News is that the Māori Party have the most progressive economic policy and in a united negotiating front with the Greens could lock NZF out while pushing a far more progressive platform onto Labour. There is still a scenario where the Māori Party hold onto 4 Māori electorates and with a low Party vote generates an MMP Overhang.
In 2026, the economy will continue to falter thanks to the neoliberal economic vandalism of this hard Right Government and society will become more polarised thanks to social media hate algorithms.
The damage being caused to the capacity of the State to solve the economic inequalities, necessary environmental adaptation and public service provision is masked by culture war revenge fantasies masquerading as social policy.
We need real Left solutions like Mamdani is championing, not the incremental mediocrity that Keir Starmer manufactures.
The naked reality is that Labour, Greens and Māori Party on their worst days are still better than National, NZF and ACT on their best days.
So what are the best, worst and most likely outcomes this year for the NZ Left in the 2026 Election?
The best outcome for the Political Left in 2026:
Māori Party holds 4 seats and has a low party vote that trigger’s an overhang, the Greens reach out to Australia special votes and brings in the non vote while Labour holds the middle which = 51%. The Greens and MP form a united negotiating front and forces Labour to adopt a genuinely progressive Mamdani platform.
The reality is that the Greens are what one would technically term as, ‘weak arsed pussies’. Maybe it’s the veganism and lack of iron, but the Greens have all the offensive capacity of slow growing moss. Their ability to be bullied by Labour into meaningless incremental nothings is well recorded and the reality is that they NEED an arsehole like John Tamihere in a united negotiating front to ensure they don’t get played by Labour again.
The worst outcome for the Political Left in 2026
NZF + National + ACT are re-elected and cement into place their 19th Century White Settler privilege and continue to strangle the common good for their donors interests.
Massive State Sale Programme begins that permanently mutilates the State.
It’s all the worst bits of the 4 Horseman of the Apocalypse, but with more cows, property speculation and beneficiary bashing.
The most likely outcome for the Political Left in 2026
If the Greens lose their 3rd place Party ranking to NZFirst, Winston calls the shots and will form a Government with Labour, making the Greens slaves while becoming a handbrake on any public good.
If Te Pati Māori can not sort their shit out (thanks to Doc, thank to Mariameno and thanks to Eru), if they continue to blame Tamihere for protecting the leadership and splinter like flakes, Winston will simply tell the electorate he is the only one who can protect NZ from Te Pati Māori instability and they will force the Greens to accept a deal where they are once again the abused partner in a Government arrangement where they have zero influence.
