BREAKING SHOCK POLL: Tamaki Makarau – Peeni 35% Tamihere 29%
Right now the NZ msm are not appreciating how the Māori Party momentum in the Māori electorates has the potential to be the real surprise on election night – we could have a Labour+Green+Māori Party Government that would have a real mandate for transformative change.
Maori TV have left the best for last, their Tamaki Makarau poll shows a remarkable turn around in fortunes for the Māori Party.
Months previously, Peeni was leading by 30% in internal polling, that has been smashed down to a mere 6% with 12% still not certain.
This result follows Tamihere having the campaign of his life. He has been head and shoulders above the others in his debates, coupled with very strong candidates and the best policy platform in the political spectrum, the Māori Party momentum is real.
Tāmaki Makaurau, Te Tai Hauāuru and Waiariki must now be considered in play, and that the split vote strategy has taken hold.
That’s no reflection on the incredible leadership Willie Jackson has provided for the Māori campaign. All Labour Māori MPs have benefitted from his media training advice and his best judge of performance will be the Party vote Labour harvest from the Māori electorates, but deep issues within Māoridom about the State’s abuse of them hasn’t been taken up by Labour’s Leadership, so this strategic move by Māori voters to bring in an independent Māori political voice shouldn’t surprise anyone.
What might surprise is the ramifications of this.
If the Māori Party win more electorates than Party vote, they will create an MMP overhang that moves the parliamentary majority higher, which will in turn force Labour to seek a coalition with the Greens.
The Greens in turn would be under enormous pressure to include the Māori Party in any negotiations with Labour.
Greens + Māori Party have very similar policies and could lay out a policy platform that must be passed in the first 100 days that would actually be transformative.
It’s up to Māori voters in the Māori electorates to decide if Labour + Greens + Māori Party are the Government combination they need to see the transformative change Jacinda promised in 2017.
If Māori voters in the Māori electorate candidate vote Māori Party and Party vote Labour/Green, we could have a huge surprise on election night.
MMP coattails are so 2014, MMP overhang is where it’s at now.
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Would support Māori Party being part of the Govt if John Tamihere is genuine that the MP has now officially counted NZ National out. The MP accomodation with the Key Govt. bought shame on the MP leaders and worse lives to countless thousands of Māori people.
Unity of class left Pākehā and working class Māori is something that the NZ ruling class, and Iwi elites, greatly dread. And that type of co-operation could be a powerful force for political change.
The conservative Maori party are a natural partner to the National party after all.
John Tamihere is Michelle Boag’s bestie
It is a rather Herald headline.
It is not going to happen, but it seems from this poll that Davidson would be well advised to have a public cup of tea with Tamihere. A promise not to negotiate individually post-election with Labour would be a good place to start. Her 14% isn’t going to get her the seat even with a confidence interval of 8.8% (MoE 4.4% from 500 sample size), and the elctorate seems quite comfortable with tactical voting given the party to electorate preferences:
55% Labour, 34% Peeni
9% Māori, 29% Tamihere
7% Green, 14% Davidson
Yet strangely 54% favouring a Green/ Labour coalition over 42% for Māori/ Labour. Though the numbers sum to 125% (NZF/ LP 23%; Nat!/ LP 6%) , so there’ll be some overlap in there. The GP can hardly complain about Swarbrick’s contest with White in Auckland Central if they are unwilling to cooperate with other potential allies themselves.
https://www.teaomaori.news/tamaki-makaurau-seat-grabs-poll-results
Tamihere is more a red herring than a blue cod. Who in their right mind would want to see him back in parliament, certainly not the “front bums”.
Obviously you are wrong Kat as many of our Maori whanau want him (John) or the Maori party back in which is why the polls are so close. This is a new look Maori party with more transformational ideas and some very well educated and articulate candidates. Also our Maori whanau voting in the Tamaki Makaurau electorate need to remember it was under Labour we marched against the foreshore and seabed legislation and it was under Labour our Tuhoe whanau were raided, treated badly and deemed terrorist. Yes, the Maori party were in bed with National for nine years and they paid severely for this. The Covid pandemic has changed everything. We are now living in very difficult and unprecedented times. Now is the time for a change this may require a change in government policy if we truly want to improve the socio economic position of our Maori people. We cannot wait any longer for the prevailing attitudes of our public services and those working in them to change, too many have entrenched racist and bias views. And to keep doing more of the same is wrong.
In the Auckland debacle Tamihere was willing to sell off public assets. Can he change his spots.
Deeds not words are less deceiving.
Have the Maori party had their policies independently costed? has any of the minor parties for that matter? i know the Greens, that have a very impressive list of progressive policies that are worth voting for, always have theirs costed.