Ben Morgan’s Pacific Update: Listening closely to the US Indo-Pacific Commander-in-Chief

Admiral Samuel Paparo is probably one of the most powerful individuals on Earth. He commands the US Indo-Pacific Command, a vast array of US military power spanning from the west coast of the Americas, across the wide Pacific Ocean to 66° longitude that bisects the Indian Ocean, close to the eastern border of India.

Roughly, Paparo commands about 370-380,000 people responsible for US military operations over about 50% of the Earth’s surface. Paparo’s command includes the 8^th Army in Korea, the Pacific Marine Force, US Forces Japan and the powerful 7^th and 3^rd Fleets. This command also makes him America’s point-man in any potential military confrontation with China, so his comment provide useful insights.

I am a regular reader of retired, Australian general, Mick Ryan’s Substack. A very informative and insightful site that recently highlighted comments Paparo made in early-May at the Sedona Forum, in Arizona.

The Sedona Forum is an annual international affairs conference run by the McCain Institute. While speaking to the forum, Paparo discussed his concerns about China’s increasing military capacity, including the larger scale of China’s amphibious warfare exercises. He also raised concerns about China’s increasing tempo of activity around Taiwan, including describing recent exercises as “rehearsals.”

Later in May, at the Land Force Pacific Symposium in Hawaii, Paparo reiterated these points, Stars and Stripes recording that “Paparo, since taking command of INDOPACOM a year ago, speaks often of China’s threat to Taiwan. Beijing is on a “dangerous course” with aggressive air and sea maneuvers around Taiwan that are “rehearsals” for invasion.” Speaking in Hawaii, Paparo also noted the increasing military cooperation between China, North Korea and Russia, stating that “More concerning is the fact that China, Russia and North Korea, among others, have formed a transactional symbiosis that threatens regional stability.”

Speaking to the Association of the Army on 13 May, Paparo again reiterated these key points, stating that China is on a ‘’dangerous course’ and describing the scale of a recent People’s Liberation Army exercise that involved 150 warships and 43 brigades. He also pointed out that North Korea has recently tested an ICBM potentially able to attack targets anywhere in North America.

Paparo’s comments indicate US concerns about three key Pacific security trends, specifically:

• China’s increasing potential to project military power across the sea. Amphibious warfare is a difficult skill, that requires training and specialist equipment. Currently, China is developing, and testing, a large and sophisticated amphibious warfare capability. Paparo notes that the size and scale of Chinese amphibious exercises are increasing, and are including exploitation from a beach head into urban areas. At Sedona, for instance Paparo observed that “…a one brigade joint exercise in 2021, or a six brigade joint exercise in 2022, was a 42 brigade exercise in 2024…” An indication that China is developing amphibious warfare capability that increases the likelihood of an invasion of Taiwan being successful.
• Mounting Chinese pressure on Taiwan. China’s activity around Taiwan is increasing, everything from single aircraft crossing into Taiwan’s Air Defence Identification Zone, to naval patrols, and large exercises. This activity is coordinated to test Taiwan’s defences, exert psychological pressure and rehearse for future operations. Whether, a blockade, quarantine or a full-scale invasion, China’s current tempo of activity provides good opportunities for training and rehearsals, forcing Taiwan’s defenders to respond, and normalising Chinese military activity in the area. By normalising a high level of activity in the Taiwan Strait, China makes it harder to judge if an ‘exercise’ is actually an attack.
• China’s relationship with Russia and North Korea. Paparo uses the term “transactional symbiosis,” to describe the collaboration between these nations. Essentially, Paparo’s position is that although these countries are willing to work together to achieve shared aims, like opposing the US, they are not bound by deep historical or philosophical relationships. Although “transactional,” their relationships certainly increase joint capability. China and North Korea harvesting information from Russia’s war in Ukraine, while both benefit from Russian transfers of military technology. Likewise, in the event of conflict these nations may support each other, creating a large and powerful alliance.

Paparo’s recent comments highlight his view of key data-points that he believes may indicate China’s intent regarding Taiwan. And in Hawaii he provided noteworthy commentary about how his forces would intend to oppose an invasion of Taiwan, and about the resources the US is focussed on developing for such a contingency.

“Fires is the capability from the Army — and from land forces — that I most treasure in this region,” Paparo told the audience, then discussed how land-based fires fit into his concept of operations. “We don’t necessarily need immediate maritime or air superiority in the Taiwan Strait,” he said before detailing the importance of ground based anti-ship and anti-aircraft missiles, that can deny the Taiwan Strait to a Chinese amphibious assault force.

Specifically, Paparo discussed the importance of the US Army’s new Multi-Domain Task Forces (MDTF). A new type of unit designed to provide long-range precision-guided missile fire against air, sea and ground targets.

An MDTF also includes cyber, surveillance and communications assets to find targets and to support the flow of communication across the force it is supporting. The MDTF is a bespoke formation specifically designed to fight a peer adversary like Russia or China.

A key weapon in the MDTF’s arsenal is the Precision Strike Missile (PrSM), the next generation of ATACMs missile. The Land Based Anti-Ship Missile (LBASM) variant of the PrSM has a published range of 1,000km, and sophisticated internal guidance that allows it to hit its target even if the missile is being jammed, or if the GPS network is compromised. Notably, 3^rdMDTF tested the LBASM last year, sinking a target ship.

In my opinion, comments like this indicate that the US is coming to terms with China’s ‘area denial’ strategy, a plan to use precision-guided anti-ship missiles to stop large American warships from operating in the East and South China Seas. Denying these areas to traditional US military forces, like carrier battle groups. Historically, the US has relied on its carrier aircraft, and ship launched missiles like Tomahawk to deny areas of ocean to enemy vessels. Currently, it is dangerous for the US to rely on this historic operational model because carrier battle groups and surface ships could now be easily targeted by Chinese missiles.

The initial US response to this situation is to continue development and deployment of its submarine forces. It is noticeable that recent US demonstrations of maritime force on the Korean Peninsular are led by submarine forces.

Secondly, the US is developing its own land-based long-range missiles to accurately hit targets at sea. Systems like these are much easier to disperse and hide on land, in forests or hidden in urban areas than a ship on the ocean.

Using weapons like the LBASM located in Taiwan, Philippines, South Korea and southern Japan the US could impose long-range ‘area denial’ against Chinese surface vessels operating near Taiwan. An amphibious assault force can be accurately attacked at long-range using this type of missile, rather than crewed aircraft flying from carrier. From China’s perspective this increases the military risk of an invasion being defeated, deterring an invasion of Taiwan.

We are witnessing an evolution of the US operational model, that will impact across the Pacific. US allies and partners from New Zealand in the south, to Japan in the north, are increasing defence spending. This rearmament programme will be influenced by the new over-arching US concept of operations. In 2021, Australia announced it was partnering in the PrSM programme and will receive its first LBASMs in 2028 and other allies like Japan and Korea will join the programme.

However, the change in doctrine will impact in other ways and it is likely that across the US’s Pacific partners there will also be an emphasis on the surveillance, target acquisition and communications capabilities required to direct the fire of the new generation of long-range precision guided weapons. Integration and inter-operability designed to ensure that the US and its wider group of partners can work together, to provide a credible deterrent.

In Paparo’s own words “Deterrence is that combination of capability and will, and your would-be adversary’s knowledge of that demonstrates to them that the potential cost of aggression far outweighs the benefit,” and his recent comments demonstrate how the US plans to support Taiwan, contributing to the wider goal of deterrence.

Space combat is no longer science fiction

It is no secret that Earth is surrounded by a dense cluster of satellites, carrying out a range of military and non-military functions. Some observe the Earth providing an all-seeing ‘eye in the sky,’ others monitor the electro-magnetic spectrum, some provide navigation points and other serve as links in digital communications networks. A wide range of important activities that militaries use extensively.

Therefore, it should not be a surprise that dominating space is an important element of recent military planning. Recently, at the McAleese Defense Programs Conference in Washington, US General Michael Guetlein, Vice Chief of Space Operations, briefed the audience about recent Chinese advances in satellite technology.

Guetlien, discussed US intelligence that recorded Chinese satellites manoeuvring in orbit. The US Space Force observing five Chinese “objects” moving with precision, described as “dogfighting.” The “objects” involved in these exercises were three Shiyan-24C experimental satellites, and Shijian-605 A and B spacecraft.

Many countries are pursuing similar programmes, including the US and Japan. And, during his speech Guetlein discussed Russia’s 2019 “nesting doll” demonstration that involved a Russian satellite releasing a small mobile spacecraft that manoeuvred near a US satellite.

Dominating space is a vital military activity, satellites are an essential tool for finding targets and guiding long-range missiles to them. Likewise, modern militaries rely on GPS and satellite communications. So, destroying the enemy’s satellites is becoming an increasingly important military capability, that we should expect to see more countries pursuing aggressively.

China’s dogfighting satellites demonstrate that the presumed US monopoly on space control is being challenged, and that he US and its partners need to work to maintain space superiority.

Melanesian update

A regular update on the Pacific’s least reported trouble spot; Melanesia.

Criminal kidnapping in Papua New Guinea

On 14 May, the Australian Broadcasting Corporation reported that eight people had been kidnapped by a criminal gang in Adumari village, located in the Central Highlands near the border of Hela and Western Provinces.

The kidnappers are demanding a ransom, and the Royal Papua New Guinea Constabulary has dispatched specialist police officers to the area. Adumari village is about 100km west of Porgera mine, and 150km west of Wabag, two areas that are unstable. Both suffering significant outbreaks of violence last year.

Kidnapping and other violent organised crime are relatively common in remote areas of Papua New Guinea, and demonstrate the nation’s lack of security and stability.

 

Ben Morgan is a bored Gen Xer, a former Officer in NZDF and TDBs Military Blogger – his work is on substack