Ben Morgan’s Pacific Update: German warships plan to transit the Taiwan Strait

This week a tense game of geo-politics is playing out in the northern Pacific. German frigate GFS Baden-Wuerttemberg, and a supporting supply ship GFS Frankfurt am Main planning to transit the Taiwan Strait soon.

The German ships will conduct a ‘freedom of navigation’ patrol through the Taiwan Strait. Although its position is not supported by international law, China claims the Taiwan Strait as territorial waters.  By moving through the strait, the German warships are symbolically challenging this position. The Chinese government is protesting the transit, their Ministry of Foreign Affairs reiterating the nation’s position, and spokeswoman Mao Ning stating that “Beijing has always opposed the undermining of China’s territorial sovereignty and security under the guise of freedom of navigation.” China’s position is regularly challenged by the US and its partners sending warships through the strait to exercise the right of free passage guaranteed by international law.

Freedom of navigation is an important theme in the Pacific’s security debate because in the South China Sea, East China Sea and in the Taiwan Strait, China claims large areas of ocean. The US and other nations are concerned because the areas claimed by China are important maritime trade routes. Additionally, China’s claims are unilateral declarations that are not internationally recognised, creating tension as other nations object to them.  Specifically, when China’s claim over-rides those of smaller nations. A situation that is currently playing out in the South China Sea, as China and Philippines contest ownership of various areas.

The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), is the basis for international maritime law and it defines the extent of a nation’s territorial waters. A key US diplomatic message regarding Pacific security is maintaining freedom of navigation in the region, and the current rule of maritime law based on the United Nations conventions.

German Rear Admiral Axel Schulz stated his government’s position clearly and simply. “We are showing our flag here to demonstrate that we stand by our partners and friends, our commitment to the rules-based order, the peaceful solution of territorial conflicts, and free and secure shipping lanes.” The admiral re-iterating that his nation is also concerned about China’s claims in the region, and supports the US and its partners in the Pacific.

German warships last transited the Taiwan Strait in 2002, and the patrol is part of a wider trend.  The US’s European partners supporting its Pacific partners (like Japan, South Korea, Australia and the Philippines) to maintain access to the South China Sea, East China Sea and the Taiwan Strait.  German ships transiting the Taiwan Strait is a significant event, indicating Germany’s increasing willingness to play a role in the Pacific.  In recent years, German ships, aircraft and soldiers have deployed more often to the region, exercising with the US and other local partners.  After transiting the strait, the German warships plan a series of visits around the Pacific.

2024 Pacific Islands Forum Leaders Meeting – 26-30 August

Next week, leaders of Pacific nations will assemble in Tonga for the annual Pacific Islands Forum Leaders Meeting. Although the forum’s objectives are focussed squarely on mitigating climate change and economic development, security is currently a key issue.  The forum is an essential element of the region’s security infra-structure; setting collective policy and providing a forum to support members that are managing security issues.

Security and great power competition are likely to be discussed at the forthcoming meeting, and immediately before the meeting Fijian Prime Minister, Sitiveni Rabuka is travelling to China. Rabuka is the third Pacific leader hosted by China’s president since July, demonstrating the importance China places on Pacific diplomacy. It is highly likely that his 10-day visit that includes a meeting with President Xi Jinping will also include discussions about security issues.

However, the Pacific faces other security issues, and two are sure to be discussed:

• New Caledonia.
• West Papua.

In July, the forum discussed sending a high-level delegation to New Caledonia, after riots in Noumea.  Mark Brown, Prime Minister of the Cook Islands and Chair of the forum was asked to lead a three-person delegation, that he refers to as a ‘troika, to the island.’ Since then, Brown has been negotiating with French authorities.  However, the visit has been impossible to organise, and there are allegations that France is trying to control the visit.  Brown is taking a more diplomatic position, saying: “… the New Caledonia Government has identified a number of issues regarding due process and protocol that will need to be addressed prior to a Troika visit.”

Meanwhile, violence continues on the island, and although the forum has a history of supporting peace and stability in the region, the visit has not happened. And, whether the problems organising the visit originate within the colony or from France, there is a perception that the visit is being stalled. Additionally, the situation encourages Pacific people’s concerns about French colonialism.

French policy in New Caledonia is sometimes described as ‘neo-colonial,’ in my opinion, this is a misnomer.  France’s actions in New Caledonia are plain, old-fashioned colonialism.  The desire to maintain a military outpost in the Pacific, and to earn money from New Caledonia’s vast undersea territory are France’s reasons to retain the colony. However, history tells us that colonial regimes do not last forever, so France is fighting a losing battle. Unfortunately, while the battle is fought, it creates a security issue for the forum, because a failing colony is a recipe for instability.

Another Melanesian security issue the forum will address is West Papua, also known by its Indonesian name Irian Jaya. The western half of Papua is Indonesian but the indigenous people are Melanesian, and want independence.  A war for independence has been fought in the province for decades.  Recently, on 15 August rioting in the province resulted in Indonesia soldiers firing rubber bullets and tear gas before arresting 95 people.

Since 2019, the Melanesian Spearhead Group, a sub-group of the forum has requested access to the area.  A request that has been consistently denied by Indonesian authorities. In 2023, the Fijian Prime Minister, Sitiveni Rabuka and his Papua New Guinea counterpart Prime Minister James Marape were appointed as special envoys to Indonesia on West Papua but were unable to organise access to the province.

In May, the United Nations released a highly critical report alleging Indonesian authorities have participated in acts of torture and illegal killings against independence activists and fighters.  This report was followed in June by an Indonesian sponsored visit by the Melanesian Spearhead Group’s director-general, Leonard Louma.  The visit was organised by the Indonesian government, that took the opportunity to paint a positive picture of situation in the province. A Radio New Zealand report summarising the situation as follows: “An unheralded visit to Indonesia’s Papuan provinces by a leading Pacific diplomat has drawn criticism for undermining a push for a United Nations human rights mission to the region where pro-independence insurgents have fought Indonesian rule for decades.” The visit that has been criticised by Melanesian Spearhead Group members, including the group’s Chair Vanutu’s Prime Minister, Charlot Salwai.

New Caledonia and West Papua are sure to be discussion points amongst delegates at the meeting. The members wrestling with these local issues as they are faced with increasing overseas interest in the Pacific.

India’s role in the Pacific, security discussions with Japan and Australia

On Monday last week, Japan’s Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa and Defence Minister Kihara Minoru met with their Indian counterparts Defence Minister Rajnath Singh and External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar.  The meeting is a regular diplomatic event, that started in 2019.  Called the ‘2+2’ these meetings indicate both nations current security concerns about China.  The 2+2 dialogues are also important because they are another demonstration of India’s interest in Asia and the Pacific.

Earlier this month, the 6th India-Australia Maritime Security Dialogue took place in Canberra. This forum was founded in 2020 and provides a regular opportunity for both nations to meet and discuss naval concerns and how to work together better.

The ‘2+2’ and the India-Australia Maritime Security Dialogue are both indicative of current security concerns.  India, Japan and Australia all exploring ways to strengthen bi-lateral security relationships.  However, the meetings are also a demonstration of India’s interest in Asia, and the Pacific. For instance, last week this column discussed India’s intent to build a new embassy in Timor Leste, and these meetings provide further examples of the trend.  India is clearly seeking a more significant role in the region.

AUKUS countries reduce defence trade barriers

On 16 August, Reuters reported that from 1 September AUKUS members; Australia, the UK and the US are dropping trade barriers to allow for easier transfer of military technology and equipment.   Even though these countries are close allies, the US restricts movement of defence technology and weapons under its International Trafficking in Arms Regulations. Essentially, Australia and the UK are both required to maintain a similar level of security to protect sensitive technology.

The new agreement allows for rapid transfer of new defence technologies but also allows for easier transfer of high-tech weapons. For instance, the US has just approved the export of 350 Javelin anti-armour weapons to Australia. Javelin is not new, but is a highly effective weapon that is combat-proven.  Exports like this are likely to become simpler and easier to process between AUKUS members.

Reuters reports that the “U.S. issues around 3,800 defence export control licences for Australia each year which have taken up to 18 months to approve, while approvals in Britain have taken 100 days.”  The new regime means that about 70% of defence exports from the US to Australia will no longer require a license. Another possible consequence of the closer relationship may be a more open pathway into the US military for Australia and the UK’s defence products.

Melanesian update

A regular update on the Pacific’s least reported trouble spot; Melanesia.

Chinese military delegation visits Timor-Leste

Between 14-18 August a small delegation of Chinese officers visited Timor-Leste.  The delegation met with members of the Timor-Leste military and with defence officials to discuss bi-lateral cooperation.

The visit is small and relatively insignificant, militaries often meet and discuss opportunities for cooperation. However, it is a demonstration of China’s desire to engage in Melanesia and the South West Pacific, challenging Australia’s existing relationships in this region.

US Deputy Secretary of State to visit Vanuatu

After attending the Pacific Islands Forum in Tonga, US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell will visit Vanuatu. Another important and powerful US official choosing to visit a very small nation in Melanesia.  An indication of how important the US believes Melanesia is strategically.