Ben Morgan’s Pacific Update A simple explanation of this week’s military and political developments in the Pacific

ByThe Daily Blog

Australian investment in undersea drones, a glimpse of the future

Any future war in the Pacific will be all about area denial, preventing your opponent moving their ships into or around the contested area.  Generally, by swamping them with missiles fired at long-range from bases on land, that are unsinkable. Recent conflicts provide a glimpse of how accurate long-range missiles and drones allow a force to deny areas of the ocean’s surface to its opponent. China has based its strategy for military competition with the US on being able to flood the sky above a carrier task group with enough missiles to overwhelm the group’s advanced air defences. 

A way to address surface area denial strategies is to submerge, this is why the US has an enormous fleet of nuclear-powered submarines and why the AUKUS deal is structured around these vessels.  In the unlikely event of a Pacific war, the US Navy’s offensive action will probably be led by its nuclear-powered submarines. 

Drones offer opportunities to multiply the effects of weapons systems, and in the 13 February 2024 Pacific Brief we discussed Australia’s development of Ghost Bat aerial drones that will work in conjunction with crewed aircraft. The drone providing a ‘wing man,’ long-range surveillance or acting as decoys depending on the mission. The same theory applies with regards to undersea drones or Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUV), that uncrewed vessels can be used to cheaply extend the range and capabilities of a crewed vessel. 

The Australian government is committed to developing a home grown AUV, Ghost Shark. The vessel will have a very long-range and be able to operate far from a base station. In time, its activities will be easily integrated with nearby Australian and allied vessels providing new stealthy surveillance and strike capabilities.  Australia’s recent undersea communications programme with Japan and the technology in Pillar 2 of AUKUS all contribute to creating the communications networks that allow easy inter-operability of AUVs and for their integration with crewed vessels. 

In simple terms, the US and its allies are developing sophisticated undersea capabilities to counter China’s area denial tactics. AUVs are a ‘combat multiplier’ or platform or system that increase the lethality of an existing system. For instance, a Los Angeles Class nuclear-powered attack submarine may soon be operating with a small flotilla of AUVs that dramatically increase the area of ocean it can monitor or attack. And, without the need for crew these vessels can be smaller and therefore are cheaper to produce.  

Exercise Tropic Twilight, small but important 

New Zealand funds the annual ‘Tropic Twilight’ exercise that is currently underway in Tonga. The exercise is a good example of how Pacific nations other than the US and Australia support smaller countries.  About 70 service personnel from New Zealand, Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Australia, United States, United Kingdom, Japan and New Caledonia will travel to Tonga to participate in the exercise.  

Exercise Tropic Twilight is a military exercise but involves engineering work to upgrade a community centre, two local schools and a metrological station.  Part of a programme to strengthen local resilience; the schools and community centre providing shelter during natural disasters and the meteorological station providing better local weather information during events.  

This type of exercise is a vitally important part of Pacific collective security, even though the activity’s outcomes are focussed on resilience rather than warfighting.  The exercise provides an opportunity for nations to work together, build relationships and develop trust.  Important building blocks for any future deployment.

In 2006, New Zealand and Australian soldiers and police were deployed to Tonga to support the government after rioting erupted in the capital Nuku’alofa.  Exercises like Tropic Twilight provide the relationships that enable effective deployments supporting security.  But most importantly they contribute to long-term stability by building community resilience, reinforcing trust and confidence in state institutions and in overseas partners, building blocks of regional collective security.

Concerns about Chinese police in the Pacific continue

China providing police support to small nations within the Pacific, continues to create diplomatic tension. Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, Tonga, Kiribati are all small Pacific nations that have received support and training from Chinese police forces. 

In some nations like Solomon Islands and Kiribati, that support involves teams embedded for long-periods in the local police force.  A situation that both the US and Australia have stated their concerns about, probably because embedded police have very good access to information about local people and communities that can be used to produce intelligence.  And, intelligence is the basis for effective operations in any domain of war be it; land, sea, air, cyber or information. 

Last week, Chinese offers to support Tonga as it prepares for this year’s Pacific Island’s Forum were reported, raising concern in Australia. 

In the current tense security environment, the US and Australia are very unlikely to change their position regarding China offering support with policing to Pacific nations, so expect this programme to continue to cause concern with these nations.   

Kiribati, a small nation’s state institutions under-fire

Kiribati’s executive has been fighting with its judiciary for a long-time.  In September 2022, the nation’s parliament suspended the foreign-born judges that serve the nation’s highest courts. The High Court’s Chief Justice William Hastings and Justice David Lambourne and Court of Appeal’s Justices Peter Blanchard, Rodney Hansen and Paul Heath of the Court of Appeal. The judges were suspended pending investigation to remove them from office based on claims of alleged inability or misbehaviour.

This action was internationally condemned. The freedom of the judiciary from political interference is a key pillar of any well-governed nation. The Lowery Institute, an Australian think-tank wrote a scathing report in 2022, the New Zealand Law Society highlighted the situation and even the UN sent a special raconteur to help mediate the situation. 

This situation continues and last week, Justice David Lambourne was removed from office by a vote of the Kiribati parliament.

Regular readers will remember that Kiribati is a focal point of Sino-American competition.  It is strategically located south of Hawaii, a large US naval base.  The US recently raised concerns about Chinese ‘police advisors’ on the island.  Kiribati is also a small Pacific nation with vast territorial waters that may become a sponsor for deep-sea mining.  Both factors that contribute to the potential for political interference and instability. 

One protection from political interference, either by other nations or by large companies, is a strong and independent legal system, including a its judiciary.  So, the ongoing battle between Kiribati’s parliament and its judiciary should be of grave concern to all nations in the Pacific. 

Solomon Islands election update

The Pacific awaits the election outcome. However, after no clear winner was apparent when counting finished, politicking to form a government continues.  The outcome is likely to be a defining feature of Pacific politics because the next government’s foreign policy, specifically its relationship with China, will influence other Pacific nations.  Solomon Islands is about to set a trend, either by embracing Manasseh Sogavare’s pro-China foreign policy or by rejecting it and mending its relationship with the nation’s traditional security partners. 

Another scenario is that Solomon Islands new government embrace Sino-American competition and the country’s strategic location to try and maximise benefits, playing both sides off against each other in exchange for more aid and development support.  Potentially, a very de-stabilising scenario. 

Melanesian update 

A regular update on the Pacific’s least reported trouble spot; Melanesia. 

Big drug bust in Papua New Guinea

In these columns, we have highlighted the developing drug trade that threatens Pacific stability and security. Last week, Australian police intercepted 289kg of cocaine on a flight from Papua New Guinea. The seized drugs have an estimated street value of AU$ 94 million (US$ 61,763,170).

This is a significant amount of money anywhere, but when shipping through a small and relatively poor nation with an average annual salary of approximately US$ 11,500 per annum it is even more impressive.  Papua New Guinea’s low wage economy also has high unemployment. Low wages and high unemployment make drug trafficking exceptionally attractive. 

Drug trafficking undermines the cohesion of communities. In 2022, the Lowery Institute’s report ‘Drug trafficking in the Pacific Islands: The impact of transnational crime’ included this statement “In a region plagued by “unmet development challenges”, transnational crime and illicit drugs are a cross-cutting threat to development, security, and governance in the Pacific.” The whole Pacific faces significant drug trafficking issues that provide opportunities for hostile actors (state or non-state) to undermine the rule of law.  

Papua New Guinea’s state institutions are already weak and poorly funded, large quantities of illegal drug money provides an economic incentives and capacity to weaken them further creating more and larger security issues. The larger nations of the Pacific need to work with the smaller nations to address this important security issue. 


 

 

Ben Morgan is a bored Gen Xer, a former Officer in NZDF and TDBs Military Blogger – his work is on substack

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26 Comments

    1. Enslaved to and held back by, certainly. And there’s nothing ‘Western’ or ‘European’ about the controllers of the US and its puppet regimes.

        1. Whats really absurd is pretending idiots like Donald Bent Trump ,,, or Dementia suffering Joe Genocide go along Biden, are or were running the Usa …

          Very ruthless Oligarchs control the Usa Empire ,,, and they are a threat to everyone everywhere, as they want it all …

          In their rules based disorder the only real rule is 1) Obey us or we will destroy you

          For every other rule refer it to rule number one.

          People and countries being treated as equals under International Law does not apply to these ‘Exceptional People’ and their Rules based disorder.

          Now have some exploitation and austerity.

          1. There are certainly some very powerful and rich people in the USA, that I don’t dispute. Welcome to most nations (let’s not pretend it is a USA phenomena).

            I am curious though what then makes them non “Western” or “European” like was stated above?

            I mean I can guess what Mohammed Khan meant by his assertion, I’m just curious if he will actually come out and say it.

  2. Oh no, Ben isn’t quite up to the latest news. Turns out the people of the Solomon Islands rejected the racial hatred for Chinese people and their people’s government that his NATO puppeteers push.

  3. Where’s mention of Blinken disastrous trip to China? In a nutshell the mouse roared at the dragon with predictable result.

  4. The sooner New Zealand cut all our military and intelligence ties with any of the beligerent parties and seek to get all our trade vessels under an internationally recognised neutral flag the better.

    “Any future war in the Pacific will be all about area denial, preventing your opponent moving their ships into or around the contested area.” Ben Morgan

    New Zealand the Switzerland of the South Seas.

    Friend to all enemy to none.

    Not be anyone’s ‘opponent’.

  5. Drones in warfare

    “…..uncrewed vessels can be used to cheaply extend the range and capabilities of a crewed vessel.” Ben Morgan

    Talking of the sinister new developments in drone warfare. Israel use of American made unmanned bulldozers to demolish houses and tear up roads and other civilian infrastructure in Gaza.

    https://www.defencetalk.com/israeli-army-introduces-unmanned-bulldozers-37260/

    But you won’t hear anything about sinister military bulldozer drones from Ben Morgan. It might burst his well constructed bubble about the West being the defenders of human rights and the rule of law.

    Interfering in the judiciary

    “…The freedom of the judiciary from political interference is a key pillar of any well-governed nation. The Lowery Institute, an Australian think-tank wrote a scathing report in 2022, the New Zealand Law Society highlighted the situation and even the UN sent a special raconteur to help mediate the situation.” Ben Morgan

    Both US and EU leaders are leaning on the International Criminal Court for even considering issuing arrest warrants for Israeli leaders for committing war crimes

    Congress threatens ICC over Israeli arrest warrants
    https://www.axios.com/2024/04/29/icc-congress-netanyahu-israel-gaza

    The International Criminal Court is being warned by members of Congress in both parties that arrest warrants for senior Israeli officials will be met with U.S. retaliation — and legislation to that effect is already in the works, Axios has learned.
    Why it matters: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has gone so far as to urge President Biden to intervene to help prevent the warrants, Axios’ Barak Ravid reported….
    …The White House declined to comment on Netanyahu’s call with Biden but said “the ICC has no jurisdiction in this situation and we do not support its investigation.”

    Why would Israel and its allies fear the ICC?
    https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2024/5/1/why-would-israel-and-its-allies-fear-the-icc

    “European countries supported the ICC arrest warrant against [Russian President] Vladimir Putin [for atrocities in Ukraine], …so how can they come out and suddenly oppose or criticise an ICC indictment on Israeli officials? If they shield Israel from international accountability yet again, then it will further underscore – in the eyes of many other countries in the Global South – that the West is engaged in this obvious game of double standards, and that will undermine … the international legal order.” Alonso Gurmendi Dunkelberg, an expert in international law and lecturer at King’s College London.

    But you won’t hear anything about this political interference in the judicial system by Western powers from Ben Morgan because it undermines his argument that we need to oppose only the powers Ben chooses to out for political interference in the judicial system.

  6. Xen, you sound like those Admiralty types in 1942 who sent battleships to Singapore to rule the sea. Aircraft carriers are today’s big juicy hypersonic target, the planes won’t fly very well sub surface.

  7. Rather childish assumptions in the comments I think – that the US will affect us much, or that teaming up with China is even an option for us. While it’s a little pejorative to compare China to Sauron, the observation Gandalf made about Sauron is true of them as well:

    “There is only one Lord of the Ring… and he does not share power.”

    China lends money and expertise to cultivate influence and sometimes intelligence. But it does not share power. Dissent is treated harshly, as it was in Hong Kong.

    We can work in or with the US, not so much in China. And we can opt out of most of their imperialist excesses – we have done so before, with the Iraq debacle for instance.

    China is more possessive – Taiwan is evidently not allowed to opt out. Nor is Tibet.

    1. Once again I find myself in agreement with you.

      I would also add that although not to the same degree I don’t think Russia has ever been able to accept Ukraine opting out from being under the Kremlins (effective) control.

  8. Stuart and PC, you sound like a pair of old Cold Warriors reluctant to admit that the world has changed. Blind allegiance to old power blocks is as unthinking as jumping into new allegiances. Even Pat with whom I disagree understands this when proposing an independent foreign policy. Unfortunately siding with either party or sailing independently will come at a huge cost. It may be wiser to assess it in terms of investing in the future.

    1. In what way do you imagine the world has changed, Nick J? The West hoped the Cold War had ended with the demise of the Soviet Union – and it might have done so had Gorbachev retained power. But Putin resumed the Cold War immediately upon taking power – he just got free rein for a decade or two while wishful thinkers like yourself overruled traditional caution.

      A submarine base is a decent move for NZ – and if it gets us a few overpriced US toys, so much the better. The real issue of US basing here is the rapes. https://www.theguardian.com/society/2011/dec/09/rape-us-military

      1. Stuart, you ask in what ways the world has changed since the end of the Cold War? It worries me that you should ask.

        So megatrends in the last 30 years… USA financialised and deindustrialises. Europe ditto. China becomes the world’s largest economy, industrial and manufacturing super power. India and South East Asia emerge as economic powers. Russia emerges from a great depression made extreme by Western economic policies and rejects Western financial imperialism. So much more, BRICS, SCO etc.

        Biggest change, the US declares a unipolarity moment, the global “South” rejects it. “We make the rules”, say the US, “No you don’t”, comes the reply. Hence today’s conflict.

        Have you been hiding under a rock?

      1. Russian imperialism Pat. You see it, I don’t. If you said Russian ultra nationalism and extreme distrust of the West. Subtle but significant.

        1. “Russian imperialism Pat. You see it, I don’t….” Nick J

          How about American imperialism. Do you see that?

          Most supporters of American imperialism, don’t see it either.

          1. Yes Pat I see US imperialism, it is very different to Russian nationalism. For a start I recognise US desire for world hegemony. I also recognise Russia’s desire for national security when confronted by imperial proxies. Don’t you?

        2. “Russian imperialism Pat. You see it, I don’t. If you said Russian ultra nationalism and extreme distrust of the West. Subtle but significant” Nick J May 7, 2024 at 12:19 pm

          Russian Ultra Nationalism, and its corollary Russian exceptionalism, are necessary expressions of Russian imperialism. Just as American Ultra Nationalism and US exceptionalism are. How else can a nation justify to its people invading and taking over other nations if they are not convinced they are superior?
          If the rulers of a would be imperialist nation on the rise can’t convince their people, that they are superior and exceptional, (the people of other nations, being cast as inferior unenlightened savages, or in this case “fascists”) how can they convince their people that other peoples and nations need to be ruled and controlled from their allegedly superior paternal home country?

          Empire, exceptionalism, and the rhyming of history
          Kevork Oskanian (University of Exeter) 7 March 2022

          https://www.bisa.ac.uk/members/working-groups/resg/articles/empire-exceptionalism-and-rhyming-history

          “We do not belong to any of the great families of the human race:
          We are neither of the West nor of the East, and we have not the traditions of either. […]
          We belong to that number of nations which do not seem to make up an integral part of the human race, but which exist only to teach the world some great lesson.”           – P. Chaadaev, 1836.

          ….between today and Chaadaev’s travails – (he was declared insane and confined by the Tsarist authorities) – these very same words could have been uttered by a modern-day Russian politician. Its various constitutive elements – the claim to civilisational specificity, and the mission to ‘teach the world a lesson’ – have, in recent years, become a mainstay of contemporary Russia’s exceptionalism. We usually associate that term with the United States and its ‘manifest destiny’. But, as Holsti has pointed out, it is applicable to many other Great Powers – including the Soviet Union – which are, in fact, are prone to exhibit foreign-policy behaviours justified by: an obligation to liberate others; freedom from constraints in that goal; a hostile external world; a need for external enemies; and a perennial portrayal as a victim…..
          …..In fact, Putin’s current views on Ukraine exhibit all aspects of exceptionalism as defined by Holsti: Putin aims to ‘liberate’ the hapless Ukrainians from a ‘Nazi’ government, free from the constraints of the Liberal International Order (LIO); he sees them as ‘brainwashed’ by a hostile West…..
          ….the latest iteration of Russian exceptionalism as it emerged following the fall of the Soviet Union, and a period of intellectual ferment – some would say chaos – in the 1990s. At the time, Russian society was confronted with a loss of identity as its source for seven decades – the Soviet Union – had disappeared. A hodgepodge of possibilities, going from extreme nationalism, over Soviet communist nostalgia, all the way to Western-style liberalism…
          While liberalism was a damaged idea – not least because of the neoliberal policies pushed through by the Yeltsin regime….
          ….great powers will tend to have their forms of exceptionalism: in fact the United States has long acted as a model in that regard.;;
          …..exceptionalist adventurism can be expensive to uphold in the face of material reality: something which applies to all great powers, not least, Putin’s Russia. This is where we should put Chaadaev’s admonition within the full context of his, and our own times. Russia remains a power with a retrograde political and economic system which does not deliver for its people. And even if Putin might gain a pyrrhic victory in Ukraine, his inability to reform and grasp the dynamic potential of Russian society provides a parallel to the stagnant reign of Nicolas I. And that reign, we all know, ended in catastrophe and humiliation on the Crimean peninsula. History may not repeat itself in the future; but it might certainly come to rhyme.

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