Ben Morgan’s Pacific Update: A simple explanation of this week’s military and political developments in the Pacific

More violence in New Caledonia

On 24 June, violence flared up again in New Caledonia. The violence started after the removal of seven independence activists to France for trial on charges related to the recent riots.  In a statement issued on 23 June, government prosecutor Yves Dupas, described the removal as follows “This transfer was organised during the night by means of a plane specially chartered for the mission.” Further, the initial statement by authorities did not confirm the charges being laid, although they were clarified later. 

In my opinion this decision reeks of 19th century colonial tactics, the rendition of independence leaders from their local communities to face charges half a world away was once common practice.  Historically, all colonial powers have used this tactic but history demonstrates it is ineffective.  Taking people away from their communities, support networks and legal representatives undermines the legitimacy of the ‘rule of law.’ 

Any stability or counter-insurgency operation is based on legitimacy. British strategy during the Malayan Emergency is often used as a case-study for the management of a complex counter-insurgency.  Initially, the British response was the heavy handed and coercive ‘Briggs Plan,’ a plan that failed. After two years of conflict, a second more nuanced plan that acknowledged the requirement to find a political solution was developed called the ‘Templar Plan.’ This plan focussed heavily on building legitimacy and trust in the rule of law.  

Unlike the Malayan Emergency, France does not appear to have plans to allow its colony independence.  However, this does not mean that a political solution of some nature is out of the question, but reaching a practical political solution is less likely when the colonial government has limited trust.  It is likely that transporting these independence activists to France will add fuel to the fire, reduce local trust in the French authorities and increase the potential for violence.  

South China Sea, Philippines goes legal, China gets physical 

Last week, there has been more activity in the South China Sea.  Specifically, focussed on Second Thomas Shoal, approximately 200km from the Philippines coast. The shoal is inside the Philippines’s Exclusive Economic Zone and is approximately 1,180km from the closest part of China.   

On 15 June, Philippines announced that it is seeking a ruling on the extent of its undersea territory, from the United Nations Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf. An appeal to the United Nations for a public statement confirming the legal rights of both parties. China will obviously contest this claim.  Tactically, it looks like Philippines is countering Chinese activities that appear to be a doctrine called ‘legal warfare.’ A technique described in the 2003 Political Work Regulations of the Peoples Liberation Army.  

Essentially, legal warfare involves developing a legal claim that can be used to justify the use of coercive measures.  In this case, China uses the ‘9 Dash Line’ as the basis for justifying ownership of the South China Sea.  It then enforces the claim using Coast Guard and militia forces rather than its navy, casting the conflict with Philippines as enforcement of a legitimate claim rather than and aggressive occupation of a territory.  The legal claim is disputed and international arbitration in 2016 ruled against China. By seeking a ruling from the United Nations, Philippines is aiming to dispute China’s claim and undermine the narrative that its actions in the South China Sea are justifiable enforcement of a substantive claim. 

On 17 June, Chinese Coastguard personnel boarded Philippines ships resupplying the nation’s garrison on the Second Thomas Shoal. The shoal is approximately 200km from the Philippines coast, is inside the nation’s Exclusive Economic Zone and is approximately 1,180km from the closest part of China.  Philippines Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces, General Romeo Brawner condemned China’s actions claiming that its coast guard officers ‘acted like pirates’ and were armed with knives and spears.

China’s response was to blame Philippines, a Ministry of Foreign Affairs official stating “China urges the Philippines to stop its infringement and provocation at once.” The incident on 17 June, is a significant escalation because it involves a physical confrontation. Philippines claims that two sailors were injured in the incident.  Previously, Philippines President, Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has stated that the death of a Philippines national is a ‘red line’ for his nation.  China’s willingness to take this risk by forcibly boarding a Philippine’s ship indicates the nation is willing to test US resolve.  The US being Philippine’s security guarantor through the 1951 Mutual Defence Treaty, an agreement that the US has been clear applies to Second Thomas Shoal.

The South China Sea is tense, Philippines Ambassador to the US, Jose Manuel Romualdez stating concerns about the risks of escalation last week, already Japan, Canada, Australia and the US are committed to helping Philippines. Alongside these nations is a web of partnerships and alliances that could quickly draw a wide range of countries into the conflict.  Fortunately, the situation is forcing China and the US to talk more. Last week, Nicholas Burns, US Ambassador to China spoke to the BBC about the tensions, confirming that both China and the US are in regular dialogue to manage the situation and prevent escalation.

My assessment is that this tension is a test of resolve, China’s economy is not strong and for all the commentary and media hype its military is still far weaker than that of the US.  Instead, we are watching a long, slow hybrid campaign that is currently testing how far the Philippines and its allies are willing to ‘push back.’  

Maritime conflict involves discrete and controllable force, ships and aircraft. It does not have the same unpredictable nature and risk of civilian harm as land conflict.  Historically, the sea has often been used by great powers to test each other in a lower consequence and more controlled environment. 

Japan and Philippines security agreement

Increasing tension in the South China Sea is encouraging Japan and Philippines to work together more closely. On 8 July, leaders from both nations plan to meet in Manilla to finalise details of a new security agreement.  Japan has a larger and more sophisticated military; and is already engaged in a similar conflict with China in the East China Sea. 

Based on previous statements the security agreement is likely to include access to each other’s bases. It is also likely to include Japan supplying surveillance assets like radars and patrol boats to Philippines to support the nation’s enforcement of its territorial claims.  Japan has already provided radar equipment and about a dozen patrol boats.

Melanesian update 

A regular update on the Pacific’s least reported trouble spot; Melanesia. 

New Fijian patrol boat, still stuck on a reef

RFNS Puamau, a Guardian Class patrol boat donated to Fiji by Australia is still stuck on a reef near the Lau Islands.  It ran aground two weeks ago and appears to be badly damaged. This week it was reported that Australia has sent salvage equipment to Fiji to help re-float the vessel.  

This incident is an embarrassment for Fiji’s military and an independent Board of Inquiry has been convened to investigate how the incident happened. Later in the week, Fiji’s Home Affairs Minister, Pio Tikoduadua called for the findings of the inquiry to be made public. 

Papua New Guinea and US militaries exercise disaster response

US service personnel exercised disaster relief operations with their Papua New Guinean colleagues from 18-21 June. This is the second in a series of annual ‘Disaster Response Exercise and Exchanges’ aiming to use military support to improve the nation’s resilience to natural disasters.

The exercise was hosted in Port Moresby, the capital of Papua New Guinea and included personnel from the US Army, the Papua New Guinea Defence Force and the Papua New Guinea National Disaster Centre. 

This exercise is a good example of how militaries can be used as a form of diplomatic ‘soft power.’ The US military’s logistics, planning and training capabilities are a useful resource that can help smaller nations, like Papua New Guinea improve not just their military skills but also those required to respond to natural disasters. This activity builds relationships and partnerships that in turn strengthen American influence in the region.

Solomon Islands and Vanuatu sign border agreement

The Tirvau Agreement about cross border relationships was signed between Solomon Islands and Vanuatu last week. Although separated by approximately 650km, the nations share a common oceanic border and the agreement provides a framework for day-to-day travel, trade and economic interactions between Temotu, Solomon Island’s westernmost province and Vanuatu’s Torba province.

Monitoring and managing these activities is surprisingly difficult in many parts of the South West Pacific. The area’s large distances, small population and limited law enforcement resources mean that there is often little surveillance or control of movement. Additionally, local familial and community relationships do not always match legally recognised borders so documents like the Tirvau Agreement become important providing an opportunity to synchronise historic social and economic networks with modern governance.  Agreements that manage these interactions are especially important because they help monitor and control local movements that drug traffickers can use to hide their trade.  

Solomon Islands Prime Minster meets Australian Prime Minister

On 26 June, Solomon Islands Prime Minister, Jeremiah Manele met Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese in Canberra.  Australia is Solomon Islands largest foreign donor. It is currently competing with China for influence in the nation. Solomon Islands is a key area of security interest for Australia. Its location at the heart of Melanesia and proximity to Australia mean that any Chinese influence either diplomatic, economic or military is of intense interest.  The nation’s previous Prime Minister, Manasseh Sogavare signed a security deal with China that sparked concern in Australia.

Although Australia’s prime motivation is security, Solomon Islands appears to be focussed on economic development. Australia’s Prime Minister reinforced security at a joint press conference after the meeting, while Prime Minister Manele stated that “We are keen to work with all partners, with Australia and China, (on) how we can partner together to create transformational projects and programs in Solomon Islands that create jobs.” 

Small Pacific nations sometimes describe a disconnect between themselves and larger powers. This meeting may provide an insight into this type of dialogue. Historically, small South West Pacific nations have consistently prioritised issues like climate change and economic development. However, the diplomacy of larger nations tends to be security focused. This difference in prioritisation needs to be reconciled to build a successful security architecture in the South West Pacific.

 

Ben Morgan is a bored Gen Xer, a former Officer in NZDF and TDBs Military Blogger – his work is on substack