BEN MORGAN: Trump’s big announcement

On Monday last week, President Trump made his big announcement about Ukraine. The announcement has been lauded in many quarters, President Zelensky thanked the US for their support in his nightly address to the nation and mainstream media is keen to highlight it as a change in US policy.

The Hill for example reported that “Former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice weighed in earlier this week on President Trump’s ultimatum on Russia, suggesting it is a “turning point” in peace efforts in the over three-year-long war in Ukraine” and CNN stating “Taken together, the moves amount to a markedly new approach to the conflict, which Trump has worked to distance himself from since taking office in January.”

Sitting in the Oval Office together Trump and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, announced the new approach to bring Russia to the negotiating table. The key elements can be summarised as follows:

• A sanctions threat. The president issued an ultimatum to Russia, that if progress on a ceasefire deal was not evident within 50 days the US would increase economic sanctions. Notably, this threat applies to both Russia and the countries economically supporting it.
• More weapons for Ukraine. The plan includes an arrangement by which European nations can easily purchase up to US $ 10 billion of US weapons to send to Ukraine.

On the face of it, these statements look like a good deal for Ukraine but ‘the Devil is always in the detail,’ and there are several points for consideration in the announcement. The first relates to the sanctions threat.

Sanctions will impact Russia’s economy but not Putin’s decision-making

The sanctions threat is unlikely to have a meaningful impact on Putin, historically sanctions have had no impact on his decision-making. However, sanctions are having an impact on the Russian economy and if followed through with may have an impact of Russia’s ability to prosecute the war.

On 18 July, Reuters reported a statement from Maria Zakharova, a spokeswoman for the Russian Foreign Ministry, that captures the Russian position on sanctions “An unprecedented number of sanctions and restrictions have been imposed on our country and our international partners. There are so many of them that we view the threat of new sanctions as mundane.” A typically stoic response to Trump’s threat, that is likely to echo Putin’s analysis of the situation.

It is notable that the president is also discussing ‘secondary sanctions,’ or as US ambassador to NATO Matt Whitaker told CNN “It’s about tariffs on countries like India and China that are buying their oil. It really is going to dramatically impact the Russian economy.” Harsh secondary sanctions on countries supporting Russia could have a significant impact by further limiting the flow of key technology like the computer chips that guide missiles and drones to their targets. A reduction in foreign revenue would also reduce the amount of money available to pay for soldiers, possibly forcing Putin to use conscripts in Ukraine. Potentially, a dangerous political decision for his regime.

The two most troubling elements are the long-time frame, and Trump’s history of erratic behaviour. Even if the sanctions were potentially devastating, Putin is likely to take the risk not complying because Trump has a history of tough talk that is not backed by action. Additionally, 50 days is a long-time and many things could influence the president in that period. He may be distracted by world events, or take offence at something Zelenskyy or another European leader does. Based on historical precedent chances that the sanctions will be delivered are far from certain.

Better access to US weapons is a win for Ukraine, and a win for America

The weapons deal is a ‘win’ for Ukraine, it mobilises the US defence industrial base. Now, American defence companies know that there is a US $ 10 billion pipeline of work, so invest in infrastructure to increase production. Strategically, this is a clever move by the Trump Whitehouse because it provides a significant incentive for the US defence industry to increase its production capacity, funded by European money.

Meanwhile, it provides an easy option for Europe to provide more support to Ukraine. The US defence industrial base is massive and is the only national industry within NATO currently equipped to produce the amount of ammunition demanded for the war in Ukraine. Europe is keen to increase its own industrial base and this deal provides immediate certainty of supply for Ukraine, while Europe’s defence industry expands.

It is notable that the arrangements are immediately taking effect, Germany announcing last week that it is purchasing Patriot anti-aircraft missiles for Ukraine. Speaking to Al Jazeera, Germany’s Defence Minister Boris Pistorius said “But one thing is clear – and this is a message to all other European NATO members: Everyone must open their wallets. It’s about urgently raising the funds needed, especially for air defence, because Ukraine is under enormous pressure,” a statement that helps us to understand an implicit component of Trump’s deal. Trump is distancing the US from the war, the deal makes getting military supplies easier but it will need to be paid for by European nations.

The deal may also produce some interesting and unexpected benefits for America. For instance, on 18 July Zelenskyy told the New York Post that he was discussing a large drone deal with the US president. The proposal involves US buying battle proven Ukrainian drones in exchange for US weapons. A transaction that benefits both parties, and could lead to a range of similar exchanges in the future. The US accessing Ukraine’s hard-won combat experience, while Ukraine builds up its military.

In summary, the deal helps define the Trump White House’s position regarding Ukraine. After Monday’s announcement it seems that rather than being a big change in US policy and confirming American support, the deal actually indicates Trump is stepping back. Instead of providing aid directly, the president wants to sell weapons to European nations who can pass them to Ukraine. An essentially transactional and commercial relationship that breaks with the previous administration’s philosophical position.

It is too early to say exactly how the deal will affect the war, but my initial thoughts are that it provides Europe and Ukraine with greater security of supply by simplifying access to America’s defence industrial base. Continuity of ammunition supply is a key consideration for Ukraine because its attritional strategy relies on ammunition to counter Russia’s manpower advantage, and defend its cities.

Russia’s reaction, and the deal’s impact on the campaign

Russia’s reaction has been predictable, more threats against NATO and nuclear sabre-rattling. Dimitry Medvedev making aggressive statements about the West, that he states has “treachery in their blood” and that Russia needs to “… act accordingly. To respond in full. And if necessary, launch pre-emptive strikes.” Harsh words designed to scare people in Europe, and as propaganda for his domestic audience. On 20 July, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on state TV that Russia was ready to move quickly with peace negotiations but importantly, also said “The main thing for us is to achieve our goals” reiterating that Putin’s maximalist objectives must be met first.

A better measure of the Russia’s response is activity on the battlefield, where this week Russia’s plan still appears to be threatening Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, the two large Donetsk cities still in Ukrainian hands.

Threatening these cities requires the capture of either Kostyantynivka, Pokrovsk or both and Russia’s main effort is still aimed at this goal. Russia’s secondary effort is an attack near Sumy to draw Ukrainian forces away from Donetsk.

Since the last post there has been no tactically significant change on the main effort, both Kostyantynivka and Pokrovsk remain in Ukrainian hands. Likewise, the Sumy advance appears to have been stopped.

Russia is also intensifying its air campaign against Ukraine’s cities and infrastructure. Last weekend (19-12 July) Ukraine’s cities suffered more large-scale bombardments involving hundreds of drones and missiles.

Putin continues sacrificing huge numbers of soldiers without significant tactical success. At this stage in the campaign, we must ask – Why? What is his objective? Putin is not stupid, instead he is trying to make ground in 2025 because pursuing the war into 2026 may completely cripple his economy. Therefore, he needs to risk constant offensive operations hoping for a Ukrainian collapse, before his economy forces him to slow down.

Russia inflicting a catastrophic defeat on Ukraine in the land campaign remains highly unlikely, based on current progress. Therefore, expect to see the drone campaign escalate as Russia tries to degrade Ukraine’s air defences before the aid arrives. Trump’s new weapons deal provides Europe and Ukraine with better continuity of ammunition supply, and will make it even harder for Russian forces to advance or to damage Ukraine’s cities.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the week provided more detail about Trump’s plan. He clearly wants to distance the US from directly supporting Ukraine, and his reasons why are impossible to confirm. However, the most important point is that the deal establishes a logistics structure that allows easy access to the American defence industry for Europe and Ukraine.

It appears to be a clever policy because Trump gets the distance that he wants, while Ukraine has a more stable logistics pipeline. Trump pleases European leaders and Ukraine is supported, but without upsetting his isolationist supporters in America. On 21 July, the Ukraine Defence Contract Group, NATO’s coordination committee for supporting Ukraine met and pledged more aid. UK Defence Secretary John Healey, spoke about a “50-day drive” to support Ukraine, and aid is flowing including Patriot missile batteries, anti-aircraft gun ammunition, drones and other equipment. Nearly, 2 billion euros worth that indicates Europe’s commitment to supporting Ukraine.

Putin is not concerned by sanctions, but the weapons deal will cause him some concern. His opportunity to win on the ground before Ukraine receives more aid, is gone and Russia’s next question is whether Ukraine’s reorganisation of its army into corps will translate into offensive action this summer?

 

Ben Morgan is a bored Gen Xer, a former Officer in NZDF and TDBs Military Blogger – his work is on substack