BEN MORGAN: Trump and Putin’s diplomatic Judo contest

The diplomatic battle has started, Presidents Trump and Putin colliding over how the Ukraine War ends. Trump firing the opening salvos last year and launched another barrage this week.  In a Truth Social post, the new president ‘called out’ Putin, saying the Ukraine War had to stop and that it was destroying Russia.  A statement followed by threats of new, tougher economic sanctions. 

Then the diplomatic Judo contest started. Putin is an experienced Judoka, a practitioner of a martial art called Judo.  A martial art that is about manoeuvre, yielding to draw an opponent off balance then applying your strength at their weakest points. This week’s activity is a good example Putin applying the skills of Judo in negotiation.

In this case, Putin, did what Putin does best and shrugged off the threat. Instead, of showing any concern or weakness he gently side-stepped and praised the new US president.  Even saying that he would not have invaded Ukraine during a Trump presidency. Carefully, positioning Russia as an equal to the US, and appearing not at all worried by Trumpian rhetoric. Putin delivered a master class in the art of bluffing.  

Another example of this behaviour is the sparring between President Trump and Putin over oil prices. On 23 January, President Trump encouraged OPEC to lower oil prices in order to reduce Russia’s revenue and encourage negotiation. The next day Putin responded, agreeing that the oil prices were too high and bad for both the US and Russian economies.  His statement designed to demonstrate that he is not afraid of the US, and to insinuate that Russia and the US are economically similar. 

President Trump is trying talk to Putin, who is avoiding contact and signalling his unwillingness to negotiate except on his terms.  On 29 January, making a statement that he might negotiate, but not if Ukraine’s President Zelensky is involved. All tactics designed to demonstrate that he is the one with the power, and that even the President of the US has to follow his lead. Putin excels at information war and he is an expert at projecting the image of Russian power.  A position he also articulated domestically when Russian media reported Trump’s statements, mocking his inability to “stop the war within 24 hours” and the presumption that he can tell Russia what to do.  

While the heavyweight match is underway the smaller competitor are also active. The media reporting that UK Prime Minister Sir Keith Starmer and French President Emmanual Macron are discussing the possibility of a their countries supporting peace-keeping operations.  Although there are no formal plans it is clear that both countries are keen to maintain pressure on both Russia, and the US by demonstrating their willingness to put soldiers in Ukraine.  

Understanding Putin’s bluff

Putin is bluffing, Russia is not a super power, nor has it  inherited the Soviet Union’s position in world politics.  In 2022, the World Bank assessed Russia’s economy as the 8th biggest in the world based on GDP.  Roughly a tenth the size of the US, and smaller than the UK, France or Germany.  The nation’s economy relies on oil and gas exports both of which are now sanctioned, and could be more aggressively targeted. Russia’s aggressive use of gas supplies to try an threaten Europe during the first winter of the war backfired, Europe diversifying its energy supplies and reducing it reliance on Russia.  And Ukraine’s air campaign on Russian oil infrastructure is hitting hard, last week Ukrainian launched another series of powerful strikes. 

Russia’s once feared military failed. The initial invasion was poorly planned and executed, leading to a loss of initiative and Russia being driven out of most of the territory it captured.  Throughout the war,  Russian senior command has been disjointed and politicised. This has dissipated effort, wasting resources and making the campaign harder.  The politicisation of Russian command culminated in Prigozhin’s 2023 coup attempt, and Russia’s senior commanders have failed to demonstrate the intellectual horsepower to evolve new tactics, instead preferring to sacrifice soldiers to maintain momentum. 

At a more tangible level, Ukraine’s defence has systematically destroyed vast amounts of Russian military hardware.  Equipment that Russia’s small, sanctioned economy will find difficult to replace. Additionally, Russian equipment has consistently proven inferior to its NATO and US competition, and a related impact on the Russian economy is a reduction in defence exports. 

Russia is currently advancing in Donetsk, but progress is slow and comes at an incredible cost in lives and equipment.  Putin’s regime has no qualms about sacrificing soldiers but sanctions and Russia’s struggling economy mean that tanks, armoured vehicles, truck and other equipment is hard to replace.  The slow momentum of Russia’s advance in Donetsk, and Russia’s inability to force the Ukrainians out of Kursk indicates that their ground forces are depleted. 

Regardless of these considerations, Putin’s Russia is keen to project strength and that it doesn’t need to negotiate. That instead, by working with China, Iran, North Korea and other partners it can maintain an indefinite war.  Speaking to TASS on 24 January, Sergei Shoigu now Secretary of the Russian Security Council claimed that regardless of Western assistance the course of the war has not changed. This is an example of Russian ‘spin.’ 

This is a bluff designed to try and convince the new White House to retreat from Ukraine, and the fundamental question is whether it will succeed. 

Discussing President Trump’s next move

Last article, we proposed the hypothesis that the new administration was likely to support Ukraine, more that most commentators predicted. A theory  based on indications that the new administration is prioritising the threat posed by China, and would therefore act pragmatically.  Offering Putin a deal, and if he didn’t take it would escalate support for Ukraine in order to quickly end the war. 

Since then reported discussions appear to support the hypothesis, the president initiating discussion. Putin trying to  bluff and redefine the  agenda to suit his objectives rather than negotiate. Initial indications are that the new administration is unlikely to be moved by this activity.  President Trump’s aggressive opening salvo indicates that his perception of Putin has changed, that he no longer sees him as a clever statesman or master strategist. Instead, President Trump is well briefed by his advisors about Russia’s military failures and economic weaknesses. He has also seen Putin’s ‘red lines’ being regularly crossed without a retaliation. 

Recent statements by retired general, Keith Kellogg who was tasked by President Trump to start the conversation with Russia indicate the administration has a pragmatic approach to the situation. General Kellogg pointing out on Fox News that casualties mean nothing to Putin, stating “When you look at Putin, you can’t just say, ‘Well, stop the killing,’ because candidly, that’s not their mentality.’’ Instead, Kellogg said oil revenue is the key to leverage on Putin, and that the aim is to reduce it. A clear statement indicating the Trump administration is ready to take action, and to play economic hardball with sanctions.  

My assessment is that the new administration is aware of Russia’s weakness, and sees through Putin’s bravado and bluff.  If Putin does not negotiate, the new White House intends to act powerfully to encourage a settlement.  Initially, using sanctions but probably also maintaining the flow of aid into Ukraine. An aggressive approach that will also aim to address other US policy goals like bringing Russia back to the table about nuclear arms control. 

The operational-level situation

At operational level, the see-saw battle continues. Russia’s main effort remains at Pokrovsk and their aim is to capture the city to dominate local transport routes and create a base from which to campaign for control of the remainder of Donbas. Specifically, the large cities of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk. Meanwhile, by attacking in Kursk Ukraine aims to draw Russian forces north away from battered Pokrovsk.

Ukraine’s battle in Donetsk is not about land, it is about attrition. Ukraine using the advantages of defence to destroy Russian equipment and inflict casualties, but conserving its own forces by withdrawing them before they are destroyed. 

Last week, Russia attacked Pokrovsk many times but to date has failed to capture the city. Elsewhere though Russia has achieved some important successes capturing Velyka Novosilika (about 35km south-west if Kurakhove) and Toretsk.  Velyka Novosilika sits on high ground and is easily defended, troops could therefore be moved from this area to reinforce the attacks on Pokrovsk, or perhaps Russia may choose to switch its main effort and use Toretsk as a base to attack Kostantiantynivka.   This town controls vital rail and road links into Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, its capture provides a good base for an attack on Kramatorsk. 

Next week’s key question is will Russia switch main effort towards Kostantiantynivka? 

Summary

While Putin and President Trump circle each other in a diplomatic Judo contest, the battle on the ground is evolving and there may be a sudden change after the Russia’s capture of two key towns.  But do the Russians have the combat power, and the capacity to switch their main effort and exploit the capture of Toretsk with a sudden advance on Kostantiantynivka.  At this stage we do not know, my assessment is that they will try this manoeuvre but it will be unsuccessful. Russia wants to project the idea that it is in charge in the battlefield, so is likely to take this risk. However, logistics is a key Russian weakness so getting enough forces to Kostantiantynivka will probably be too difficult. Further, that movement creates a intelligence ‘footprint’ that Ukraine is sure to identify, allowing them to use long-range missiles to attack Russian reserves as they move.

In the end though, my assessment is that the new White House is well aware of Russia’s weakness and is willing to capitalise on it.  Any Judoka will tell you that when everything else is equal the bigger Judoka will probably win, and in this fight the US is by far the bigger Judoka.

 

Ben Morgan is a bored Gen Xer, a former Officer in NZDF and TDBs Military Blogger – his work is on substack