BEN MORGAN: Time is running out for the US
The big news this week was that Presidents Trump and Zelensky met face-to-face in Rome. A brief 15-minute-long meeting during the funeral of Pope Francis that may turn out to be a significant moment in history.
No-one knows exactly what was discussed but President Trump is rapidly approaching the end of his first 100 days in office and the Ukraine War is no closer to a ceasefire, let alone a meaningful peace deal. Night after night both sides continue to attack each other with missiles and drones, and on the ground fighting remains intense.
So far Trump is unwilling to act against Russia, and demonstrated a new level of weakness earlier in the week, imploring ‘Vladimir’ to ‘stop’ Russian attacks on social media. An appeal Russia answered with more drone and missile attacks on Ukrainian cities. Trump is in a tough situation, in March, senior Republican Senator Mitch McConnell warned that if “Russia wins, America loses,” and at this point Russia is winning the diplomatic battle.
Trump’s unwillingness to use US economic or military power against Russia weakens America because it demonstrates to the world that the nation’s leader is easily manipulated. Trump repeats Putin’s misinformation, and his administration has turned its back on decades of US support for Ukraine, undermining America’s international integrity.
After the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, the US promptly established relations with the new nation. When Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons in 1994, Russia, the UK, and the US provided security guarantees protecting the nation’s sovereignty in the Budapest Agreement. Later, in 2009 the US supported Ukraine’s inclusion in NATO. Russia’s sudden occupation of Crimea in 2014 tested these security arrangements, and found them lacking.
A situation that prompted both the US and UK to invest billions of dollars in training and re-equipping Ukraine’s military. An investment that continued throughout the first Trump presidency. In fact, during Trump’s first presidential term, US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo issued a statement reiterating American opposition to Russia’s invasion of Crimea, stating in part that “The United States calls on Russia to respect the principles to which it has long claimed to adhere and to end its occupation of Crimea.”
Throughout his tenure, the previous US president, Joe Biden remained a strong supporter of Ukraine. Now the US has a president whose motivations are unclear and who rages emotionally on social media but is unwilling to act because of either; misplaced sentiment or fear. A president whose administration has led a stumbling negotiation process that appears to be conceding to Russian demands rather than trying to set conditions for a long-term peace.
In contrast, President Kennedy’s handling of the Cuban Missile Crisis is often described as the benchmark for successful high-stakes diplomatic negotiation. A strategy that used clearly stated US positions backed by proportional and decisive action. Lessons that the Trump administration clearly has not studied.
However, Trump’s face-to-face meeting with Zelensky may be changing the narrative. After meeting with Zelensky, Trump took to social media, and wrote that Russia’s attacks on Ukrainian cities “…makes me think that maybe he doesn’t want to stop the war, he’s just tapping me along, and has to be dealt with differently, through ‘Banking’ or ‘Secondary Sanctions?”The president’s first admission that Russia may not be engaging in good faith, and one that may be a precursor to a change in US policy. Currently, the US is approaching a significant cross roads as time runs out for Trump to act as a peace-maker. Diplomacy and events on the battlefield potentially about to outpace his plan.
Trump’s peace plan
US negotiators presented a draft peace plan to Ukraine and its European supporters on 17 April. Last week, Reuters published the draft. In summary the US proposal includes:
- An immediate ceasefire followed by ‘technical negotiations.’
- Security guarantees provided by an international coalition.
- Ukraine is not allowed to join NATO, but can join the European Union.
- US recognition of Russian claims to Crimea and other areas captured during the war. Specifically, that the US legally recognises Crimea as Russian territory (de jure recognition) and that the other areas captured are de facto Russian territory.
- Ukraine regains territory in Zaporizhia, including the large nuclear powerplant that would be run by the US to guarantee security of supply to both sides.
It is noteworthy that the proposal rejects several key Russian requests. For example, limiting the future size of the Ukrainian armed forces, and not allowing foreign military forces inside Ukraine’s borders.
Europe, Russia and the World respond
The plan has been widely criticised, Russia uncomfortable about the idea of a foreign military force securing Ukrainian sovereignty. On 23 April, Dmitry Peskov discussed this point, and said “That would be de facto Nato forces and resources on the territory of Ukraine. It was one of the main reasons for the start of the special military operation.”
President Zelensky, Ukraine’s leader was also concerned about Russia’s claim to Crimea and other territories being legitimised. Zelensky telling reporters on 25 April that “Our position is unchanged – only the Ukrainian people have the right to decide which territories are Ukrainian.” A statement that Trump reacted angrily too.
Likewise, European nations are concerned about the proposal because it appears to reward Russia by not only allowing it to take territory by force, but also legitimising that action by recognising Russian sovereignty over Crimea. CNN’s 23 April article “Why Trump’s Crimea proposal would tear down a decades-old pillar of the global order” reports that “Some US allies are highly alarmed by the framework the Trump administration is pushing to end the Ukraine war and Europeans are bracing for the outcome of another round of high-level talks between the US and Russia. “Concerns the articlereports are also shared further afield saying that “In private discussions with US partners, Asian diplomats have clearly articulated their concerns about the global implications of a settlement that violates Ukraine’s borders.”
Last week, European nations issued their own draft peace plan that requires an immediate ceasefire before territorial negotiations start. An important distinction, that ensures territorial concessions able to be used as bargaining chips in negotiations with Russia.
Why are people concerned about Trump’s peace plan?
A key legal principle of the rules-based order is that countries should not use force to settle territorial disputes. This stems from a range of historic precedents, the most important of which in this case is the UN Charter’s Article 2.4 that states “All Members shall refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state, or in any other manner inconsistent with the Purposes of the United Nations.” The US, Russia and Ukraine are all signatories of the Charter. Further, both the US and Russia are permanent members of the UN Security Council.
When Russia invaded Crimea in 2014, and Ukraine in 2022 it violated this Article, justifying the action with an appeal to the principle of self-defence. Russia claiming the invasion was legal because it needed to protect its borders, and culturally ‘Russian’ communities inside Ukraine from an aggressive ‘Nazi’ regime.
If Russia’s possession of the Crimea is recognised de jure by the US, a precedent is set for other powerful and aggressive regimes. Likewise, a de facto acceptance that most of Luhansk, Zaporizhia and Donetsk are now Russian so should not be handed back reinforces the precedent that international law is ‘trumped’ by force.
The global implications are obvious and disturbing, without a legal (or moral) check on aggression the world could revert to a medieval form of international relations in which the guiding principle is ‘might is right.’ People that read history are scared by this idea, and that is why Trump’s peace deal is being criticised.
Additionally, unlike the European proposal Trump’s plan makes immediate territorial concessions. So, as well as failing to honour international law, it weakens the US/ Europe/ Ukraine bargaining position because the proposal immediately ‘gives away’ territorial concessions that could be useful bargaining chips.
The military situation, another reason Trump’s time is running out
Finally, any peace deal is predicated on the military situation. At present Russia’s Summer offensive is slowly but surely grinding to a halt. Russian forces are attacking across the length of the frontline but are suffering consistent defeats.
Ukraine on the other hand is gaining ground in several places specifically near Pokrovsk, and Toretsk, where a newly formed ‘Azov Corps’ is operating. This is a notable development; Ukraine has spent time developing a new set of multi-brigade formations that they term ‘corps.’
The Ukrainian Army has approximately 100 brigades, and they generally operate grouped under ad hoc administrative commands called Operational-Tactical Groups, subordinate to Operational-Strategic Commands and Operational Commands. A convoluted, administratively focussed command structure that makes rapid tactical changes hard to manage. The new system groups five to seven brigades together permanently under a one command team.
The corps are formed from high performing existing brigades. In this case the 1st Azov Brigade’s commander and their command team ‘stepping up’ to form the basis of a new larger formation. The 13th Khartiia Brigade, is another example of this change and is also reported to have transitioned into a corps. The Azov and Khartiia Corps are the first two of the thirteen planned.
This change in structure is a long-time coming, and will make the Ukrainian Army more effective, especially during offensive operations. And, it is noteworthy that as Russia’s offensive ‘peters out’ in a series of unsuccessful local attacks. Ukraine is developing a new set of a large formations suited for aggressive operations.
An observation that supports the thesis that General Syrskyi’s strategy is working. Russia’s forces tiring and culminating after more than a year of unsuccessful offensive operations, at the same time as Ukraine’s new corps start to deploy. A factor that Europe and Ukraine understand but that the US president does not appear to be considering.
Conclusion
Trump still has an opportunity to make peace because America has the economic power to force Putin to negotiate, and it also has the military power to support Ukraine to victory. Conversely, Putin’s military continues to fail, and his bluff could easily be called with even a subtle application of US power.
If Trump does not act, America will find itself on the wrong side of history because Europe will continue to support Ukraine until Putin’s army collapses. At which point and a fair long-term peace can be negotiated without the US. A situation that will weaken America’s position in international relations, other countries losing trust and confidence in the US and Trump’s legacy will be an isolated and less powerful America.
Although his window of opportunity is closing, Trump still has time to act.
Ben Morgan is a bored Gen Xer, a former Officer in NZDF and TDBs Military Blogger – his work is on substack
Trump post that he thinks Putin does not want to end the ear is like saying Monay follows Sunday. No shit Sherlock!
I have been saying for a long time how thick Trump is.
Psychiatrists in America have labeled Trump a narcissistic psychopath and his use of the English language as uneducated having failed simple linguistics at school.
All this and Republicans bend over to adhere to his rants because they want power.
“Time is running out for the US” because it won’t start an aggressive nuclear war against Russia
Ben smoking crack again
look in the mirror bro ,what are you smoking
I think you might be losing the plot there Mo. The only side that has threatened nuclear war so far, is the Russian state.
You are bullshitting again Pat.
Where is your evidence seer, that anyone other than Russia has threatened nuclear war.
I could say ‘Put up or shut up’, as the saying goes.
But, we all know from past experience of your trolling that you won’t do either, put up, or shut up
1/. We all know you won’t put up any evidence, that no one, apart from the Russian imperialist aggressor, has threatened to use nuclear weapons. Such evidence just doesn’t exist.
2/, We all know you won’t stop flooding the comments section with pro-imperialist propaganda and pro-war lies sprinkled with ad hominem abuse.
There is lots of evidence of these arseholes threatening to use nuclear weapons if they don’t get their way in Ukraine.
‘Russian TV Simulates Nuking Europe In 200 Seconds With Zero Survivors’
“One Sarmat missile and the British Isles will be no more”
A Russian TV channel broadcasted a terrifying simulation demonstrating how it could destroy Europe with nuclear weapons in just 200 seconds.
This isn’t the first time the Kremlin has used its state-run media to pedal propaganda for its attack on Ukraine…..
https://www.ladbible.com/news/russian-tv-simulates-nuclear-attack-europe-200-seconds-zero-survivors-20220501
‘Putin issues nuclear warning to the West over strikes on Russia from Ukraine’
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-says-russia-reserves-right-use-nuclear-weapons-if-attacked-2024-09-25/
Russian propagandist escalates WW3 tensions with nuclear warning to ‘kill all British people’
Joe Harker
16 April 2025·3-min read
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/russian-propagandist-escalates-ww3-tensions-075721079.html?
Pat trying to distract from what his ISIS buddies are doing to the people of Syria again
Oh be quiet you child
“There is lots of evidence of these arseholes threatening to use nuclear weapons if they don’t get their way in Ukraine.”
Bullshit. Russia has said it is prepared to use nuclear weapons IN RESPONSE to any threat (such as a nuclear attack) that it perceives to be an existential threat. And it has made an effort to let everyone know what some of its capabilities are.
The fundamental problem for the opponents of Russia is: “right has might on its side” and Russia is smart. Too bad for its stupid opponents.
Bullshit. Russia has said it is prepared to use nuclear weapons IN RESPONSE to any threat (such as a nuclear attack) Seer
There is zero evidence such as a nuclear attack has been threatened against Russia.
The ones spreading the bullshit here are the pro-war Kremlin trolls.
The Kremlin has threatened to use nuclear weaons if western supplied weapons are used by Ukraine to bomb Russia. Nowhere have the Western powers threatened to use nuclear weapons against Russia.
Put up or shut, You won’t put up evidence of the West threatening to use nuclear weapons, because it doesn’t exist. And you won’t shut up justifying Russian nuclear threats.
The US and Nato have even said that they will reply to a Russian nuclear attack not with nuclear weapons but with a conventional counter attack that will destroy the Russian army in Ukraine and sink the Russian Black Sea fleet at its moorings. The US and Nato have not said that any use of nuiclear weapons by the Kremlin will be met with a nuclear attack by Nato.
“The fundamental problem for the opponents of Russia is: “right has might on its side” seer
Might is Right is the mentality of psychopaths
“Might is Right is the mentality of psychopaths”
Which is why Russia has been rearming. It knows might is the only thing the psychopaths of the west understand. And so it has backed up its right with might.
Trump’s unwillingness to use US economic or military power against Russia weakens America because it demonstrates to the world that the nation’s leader is easily manipulated
How about Trump despite the bluster and bullshit actually recognizes that the US cannot take on either Russia or China militarily.
“.. Trump despite the bluster and bullshit actually recognizes that the US cannot take on either Russia or China militarily.” and North Korea!
The photo at the top of this post with the sight of the two world leaders Trump and Zelensky in the middle of the floor of the Vatican seated on party hire chairs obviously hurriedly brought in at the last moment from the reception going on outside, tells us something.
What that something is I am not sure. But at a guess I would say that the Vatican ordered these two leaders to get their heads together. ‘or else’.
What that ‘or else’ might be I am not sure of either. But at guess I would say, that the Vatican told Zelensky and Trump especially, get your act together, because if you don’t, You think the last Pope was tough on you? Watch out. The next Pope we choose might be even tougher.
..
Yesterday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio was sent to explain that at the funeral of Pope Francis, Trump wanted the cameras to record him as the peacemaker of the world. “We want the war to end,” Rubio told a Sunday television show. “You saw yesterday at the Pope’s mass there was talk about war and how it needed to stop. The Pope – the late Pope was celebrated for being a peacemaker and trying to talk about these things. We should all be happy that we have a president of the United States in Donald J. Trump who wants to end and prevent wars, and that’s what we’re trying to do here.”
The comedy of four men – Trump, Zelensky, President Emmanuel Macron, Prime Minister Keir Starmer — competing for just two chairs in front of dozens of cameras for millions of viewers says otherwise. It reveals that between end-of-war on Russia’s terms and peace on their terms, they don’t know what President Vladimir Putin will agree to.
..
https://www.unz.com/article/the-comedy-of-the-three-chairs-trump-the-peacemaker-at-the-vatican-isnt-sure-what-to-do-next/
Yehhh… relations…
The US has ben funding and inciting Ukrainian neo-nationalist nazis. This, in combination with the abomination that is Nato, which allows countries to pretend they can be hostile to their neighbours instead of build relations with them, is the lynchpin cause of the entire conflict, culminating in the Maidan coup. That action, not a territorial dispute forced Russia to annex Crimea, because it had clear intelligence an understanding about what the Neo-nationalist Nato-backed coup regime meant for relations, and it could not count on agreements about the Black Sea Fleet and Crimean access being honoured. This after decades of Russia trying to get the West to listen to it and respect its interests. It is Western hubris and a small sector of greedy hopefuls in Ukraine couping their own country under promise that the US will lead them to pure racist anti-Russian Ukrainian glory as a New Israel. And when the known East/West Ukrainian divide meant the Eastern states wanted autonomy, they took the chance to try the good ol Anglo-Zionist ethnic cleanse.
Both the annexation and the SMO were undesirable actions, but they were in both cases Russian responses to hostile subversion and intentions after decades of attempting to talk. Trying to rewrite history that this is a territorial dispute is just more Western ass-covering and BS.
Don’t know the ins and outs of the confab here but I am struck by the image – it is one of the great images of the 21st century I think. There must be a saying about marble halls. The setting is truly priceless, the figures symbols of whatever you choose but very relevant for this moment in time, portentous.
Some corrections Ben:
“Throughout his tenure, the previous US president, Joe Biden remained a strong supporter of Ukraine.”
Yet he drip-fed Ukraine with often obsolete weapons that had sat gathering dust in the reserve for decades. His evident weakness also emboldened Putin to invade when he did.
“Now the US has a president whose motivations are unclear”
His motives are to extract the USA from a European war and make Europeans pay their way.
“In contrast, President Kennedy’s handling of the Cuban Missile Crisis is often described as the benchmark for successful high-stakes diplomatic negotiation.”
Untrue: Khruschev got exactly what he wanted and that was the withdrawal of US missiles in southern Europe, and we only avoided a nuclear exchange because a Soviet submarine commander disregarded his orders and surfaced.
Time is running out for NATO as we know it today. Ukraine has no need to join NATO.
USA will have a far lesser say in NATO in the future and that is right up the Trump conservative mind set. Means fewer USA weapons sales with with arms production manufacturing and their jobs returning to Europe. Lose, lose for the USA in regards being a world leader in the European theater.
Another big loss for the USA is the EU as a market for USA goods and services. EU is double the size of the USA market by population. Only the larger China is bigger. Anti buy USA is as strong in Europe as in Canada.
Yet more problems for the USA is the increasing power and strengthening of the Nordic-Baltic 8 countries. They will become the new NATO. If Poland and Germany join the Nordic-Baltic 8, there is actually no need for NATO. Throw in Canadian, French and UK as supporters for the Nordic-Baltic 8, NATO is dead (the total active and reservist army of Finland alone is 900,000 personnel – Russia after three years of war wont take on the Nordic-Baltic 8.).
Maybe Ukraine will join the Nordic-Baltic 8? Lose for Trump and Putin. It is already receiving military aid without NATO (and by default, USA) consideration or restriction.
https://charter97.org/en/news/2025/3/9/632527/
Problem for Trump and Putin is not ownership of the Crimea, it is ownership of the land around the Dnipro River to enable the dam and canal to be rebuilt and provide the Crimea with irrigation water. Without the water, Crimea is but a Russian holiday destination. Ukraine will not give up territory, to allow Russia access to the Dnipro River plus block Ukraines Black Sea ports.
Speaking of ports, the Nordic-Baltic 8 control the Baltic Sea so the only Russian warm water port left open is simply able to be blockaded. Much like the Black Sea is controlled by the Ukraine (Russia cannot replace the sunk navy fleet).
Nordic-Baltic 8 are actively promoting democracy in Belarus. When the existing regime falters, Putin will have another problem on his already burgeoning plate, how to keep Belarus within the Russian Federation sphere of influence (or even bring it into the Russian federation).
Tide is changing in the Ukraine. Not sure if Russia will be a winner as in creating a larger Russia in occupied territories.
Gerrit, you are sugar coating things. The Balts have no industrial capacity to take on Russia. And if they did it would be pointless as Russia doesn’t even want to go there. The only cause of conflict would as you rightly point out is for the Balts to blockade the Baltic. Have you considered the likely response? Nothing would sail without being sunk by Russian missiles. It’s a lose lose.
With regard to the Crimean water supply that is safely in the hands of the successionist republics. The likely military end point of this conflict is Russian control along the Dneiper leaving Europe a major problem. A rump state of ultra nationalists with no resources, but lots of entitled neo Nazis. Along with the end of cheap Russian gas and minerals Europe doesn’t need this additional problem.
No industrial capacity? WoW. suggest you do some study. Best jet fighters for a starter. Guess all that Volvo stuff is mere bagatelle? Did you read the message in the link? Huge support for Ukraine. Oh forgot, ship building is a major industrial complex for Finalnd and Sweden. Plus they have the man power to get low down and dirty with boots on the ground. Not to mention Nokia and Ericson 5G technologies.
Some more “sugar coating” for you to read up on;
https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/finlands-contributions-nato-strengthening-alliances-nordic-and-arctic-fronts:
“Third, Finland is a net addition to NATO’s defensive capabilities. Finland’s artillery forces are the largest and best equipped in Western Europe and will be a key strategic asset to the Alliance. With some 1,500 artillery weapons, including 700 Howitzer guns, 700 heavy mortar, and 100 rocket launcher systems, the Finnish artillery has more artillery firepower than the combined militaries of Poland, Germany, Norway, and Sweden can currently muster”
Oh well, just lucky that Russia can easily muster that firepower. Yes?
Eurpoe is coping very nicely withhout Russian gas and will continue to do so in the future.
Funny how the Ukraine is seen as an ultra nationalistic entity yet in your eyes Russia walks on water. Even though it is more closely seen and victoriously colonialistic an ultra nationalistic regime. Russia would want at least a 25K buffer zone on the west of the Dnipro. Territory now held by Ukraine. Not having much luck taking the territory by force.
As for Russia sinking Nordic-Baltic 8 shipping. Go on Russia try it and see the response. That 1000km Finnish border and a weak Belarus is not going to help Russia nor the loss of the warm water port of Kalingingrad. Poland will take that easy peazy.
Reading your fantasy it’s easy to see how the Balts may believe the same nonsense. It’s the same old, “just kick down the rotten door” stupidity. I don’t believe the Balts and Poles will be so stupid as to blockade the Baltic, as I said nobody would win.
“A key legal principle of the rules bases order” who’s having a laugh now Ben? Strange how this rules based order thinks might is right and land annexation is all OK if it’s Isreal. People are beginning to see through this verbal bullshit
https://www.stuff.co.nz/world-news/360667700/has-he-finally-realised-putin-playing-him-or-trump-just-blowing-wind
The best take on Trump..
‘Khruschev got exactly what he wanted and that was the withdrawal of US missiles in southern Europe.’
Good for you Andrew. I thought I was the only bastard who realised that.
Imagined conversation;
KHRUSCHEV We withdraw the missiles. You agree not to invade Cuba.
KENNEDY All right we will – because the Bay of Pigs fiasco shows we suck at invasions anyway.
KHRUSCHEV Also you will withdraw the missiles you have based in Turkey and aimed at the Soviet Union.
KENNEDY. Well yes – can we keep that part a secret? I want to present this to the American public as you backing down and letting us win.
KHRUSCHEV I do not give a fuck as long as you get rid of the missiles you point at us.