BEN MORGAN: No peace deal in Ukraine deal after Trump’s call, what next?

ByThe Daily Blog

After the failed Istanbul conference, President Trump intervened in negotiations, saying “nothing is going to happen” until he meets with Putin.  An intervention that indicates Trump is concerned to be seen as the deal-maker, and that he is keen to take credit for peace in Ukraine.  Probably he was carefully considering his legacy, his ego driving him to take credit for any peace-deal.  

However, Trump is facing an implacable opponent in Putin. Whose position also appears to be based on ego, a desire to be recognised as a great leader, who returned Ukraine to Russia. Putin’s desire to recreate the Soviet Union or a new Russian Empire is well-documented. For example, in his essay, On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians Putin clearly states that Russians and Ukrainians are one people, an idea that underpins his approach to the war. 

Sir Alex Younger, retired head of the UK’s Security Intelligence Service has stated that the release of this essay was when he knew Russia would invade Ukraine.  The essay is a long manifesto that painstakingly states Putin’s case for Russia to control Ukraine and casts the struggle in terms of a battle between ‘Great Powers.’ For example, Putin states “Step by step, Ukraine was dragged into a dangerous geopolitical game aimed at turning Ukraine into a barrier between Europe and Russia, a springboard against Russia.”  

A noteworthy point is that Putin’s world-view is based on an old-fashioned geo-political narrative, that pre-dates ideas of an international rules-based order. Instead, Putin’s position is based on the concept of Great Powers, that large countries exert economic and military influence on smaller countries within their ‘sphere of influence. Putin sees Ukraine as a vassal state, dependent economically and militarily on Russia, like contemporary Belarus.  This means that his objective is not necessarily to conquer territory but to invoke regime change, and weaken Ukraine.  Further, it enables Putin to interpret the war as ‘defensive,’ protecting Russia’s sphere of influence.  

Putin’s position harks back to an historic world order, a romantic vision of Russia being a Great Power.  A strong nation, able to dominate a sphere of influence, neighbouring states that provide a protective buffer for Russia. This view means that any proposed peace-deal that does not weaken Ukraine sufficiently that Russia cannot dominate it will be unacceptable to Putin. 

Putin and Trump’s phone call

Trump and Putin spoke last week, a two-hour phone conversation, that produced few tangible results.  Trump hailing the discussion as a success, stating that ceasefire negotiations would start immediately. Trump is also backpedalling on one of his previous positions, saying that peace negotiations will only work if Russia and Ukraine talk directly.  The US president proposing the two sides could meet at the Vatican, hosted by the new Pope.  A meeting that to-date has not been set.

Trump appears keen to emphasise his position as a peace-maker, acting as a broker.  However, he is careful not to take too much responsibility stating. Regardless of Trump’s optimism many observers believe, this phone call was another ‘win’ for Putin, the Russian leader simply ‘stringing Trump along’ to buy time.  His aim being to stall the process, and undermine the US -Europe relationship.  Meanwhile, angling to meet face-to-face with Trump and charm him into reducing support for Ukraine.  

Putin’s remarks were more constrained than Trump, the BBC reporting that he said “We have agreed with the US president that Russia will offer and is ready to work with Ukraine on a memorandum on a possible future peace agreement.” Part of a carefully worded statement that commits Russia to little.  Putin appears to be playing for time, gambling that every day US and European support is delayed, is a day that Russian’s situation might change. 

Soon after the phone call, on 24 May, Russia launched one of its biggest strikes on Kyiv since the war began. The Guardian reported 14 ballistic missiles and 250 drones, launched in a series of waves designed to confuse Ukraine’s air defences. This strike was followed by more large attacks on Ukrainian cities including Odessa.  Putin’s bombs proving that the war continues unabated regardless of discussions between Putin and Trump. 

Trump on the other hand, has not followed through on threatened sanctions.  And, it is evident from his comments immediately after the phone call that he is keen to distance himself including remarking that if they are not productive, “I’ll just back away and they’ll have to keep going.“

Europe’s conundrum

European leaders are currently caught in a dilemma.  On one hand, they want US support to defeat Russia in Ukraine, but they also have longer-term concerns about conflict with Russia, or China.  Europe’s leaders understand that the rise of authoritarian nations is a strategic challenge for all democratic nations, and it is vital that Europe, the US and their international partners maintain unity.  If the US leaves NATO, or withdraws further into isolationism authoritarian regimes are likely to be more assertive.  

Therefore, European diplomacy is trying to balance taking a hard line against Russia with managing the Trump White House.  Europe’s leaders trying hard to avoid providing the Trump White House with an excuse for to decouple the US from Europe.  A situation further aggravated this week by Trump’s threats of large tariffs against the European Union.  It is evident, that Trumps’ White House does not appear to have a unified approach that balances economic and military strategy.  

The battlefield situation

At operational-level there is little change in the disposition of forces, and Russia continues to engage along the length of the frontline. Russia’s ‘full court’ press continues from Sumy to Dnipro River. Further, both sides are maintaining their air campaigns, drones and missiles regularly crossing the border and striking targets deep behind the frontline.

Last, Ukraine’s drones continued to strike targets in Moscow, disrupting air travel and shutting down the internet in a couple of Russian regions. Another Ukrainian drone strike on 23 May hit a factory making parts for Russian missiles including Iskander ballistic missiles, in Lipetsk Oblast. And, as discussed Russia continues to launch large strikes against Ukraine. 

On the front-line, Open-Source Intelligence sources and Ukrainian government reporting indicate a slower tempo of activity.  The key indicators being numbers of Russian attacks, and estimated Russian casualties, both metrics lower than normal. 

For example, the UK Ministry of Defence reported on 9 May that “In April 2025, Russian territorial gains in Ukraine continued at a significantly decreased rate relative to late 2024.”  A trend that appears to be continuing, although it is notable that last week Russian forces made tactically significant gains near Kostyantynivka. A situation that is developing, and that observers should keep watching because a Russian victory in this area could be significant. Kostyantynivka is important because it dominates the local rail and road networks that supply the large cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. 

It seems certain that one of Putin’s operational-level objectives is to capture all of Donetsk, specifically the remaining two large cities in Ukrainian hands. This operational-level objective has driven Russian tactical-level operations in Donetsk throughout the campaign. Russia’s tactical dispositions, main-effort changing over time but always remaining consistent with the operational-level goal of capturing Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. 

Currently, the most important activity appears to be south-west of Kostyantynivka, near the towns of Toretsk, Niu York and Chasiv Yar. 

The development Russia’s campaign in Donetsk breaks into several phases during which their main effort has switched, and the phases can be summarised as follows: 

  • The long and costly battles for Bakhmut and Avdiivka, capture of these towns paved the way for an assault on Chasiv Yar. A town situated on high ground that dominates Kostyantynivka, a small but important transport hub. 

 

  • The next phases was Russia’s failed attempt to take Chasiv Yar, another difficult and costly battle.

 

  • When Chasiv Yar could not be captured Russia’s forces swung south, focussing on capturing Pokrovsk, another important transport hub. Since, August 2024 Russia’s Donetsk campaign has focussed in this area. Initially, Russian forces advanced west towards the town but were held so have attempted an envelopment from the south. 

 

Now after unsuccessfully attacking Pokrovsk, then trying to envelop it, and after suffering a series of small counter-attacks Russia’s main effort appears to be switching again. Moving north and focussing on a more direct attack on Kostyantynivka, the first phase of which is consolidation of a firm base, to attack from near Toretsk and Niu York.  Russian forces do appear to be making progress, the UK Ministry of Defence recently reported tactically significant Russian advances in the area, some of up to 5km. A large distance in the current conflict. Further, Russian forces now sit astride the H-32 motorway that link Pokrovsk and Kostyantynivka.   

However, it is important to note that a key feature of this war, is the ground that matters is defensible locations.  Places like towns or high features with concealment that provide defenders with refuge from drone surveillance.  So, it will take some time to see whether this activity translates into an operationally significant impact, like the loss of Kostyantynivka. 

Conclusion

In conclusion, this week’s events reminded me of Wilfred Owen’s poem, The Parable of the Old Man and the Young. The poem is a re-telling of the biblical story of Abraham and Isaac. In Owen’s poem, God asks to Abraham sacrifice the ’Ram of Pride’ instead of his son. However, Owen’s Abraham refuses, and the poet tells us:

But the old man would not so, but slew his son,

And half the seed of Europe, one by one.

Owen’s poem appears to tell a timeless story.  A story of terrible sacrifices for very insubstantial goals, the ego of leaders.  In this case, one stubborn old man who is committed to a medieval interpretation of what it means to be ‘Russian.’ And, another stubborn old man more concerned about how he looks, than resolving the war.

Meanwhile, young Russian soldiers and Ukrainians die in huge numbers, sacrificed on the alter of ego. Recent events increasingly indicate that Putin is stalling, bluffing and hoping for a victory but is willing to fight for as long as it takes to secure the peace he wants.  An insecure Ukraine, easily dominated by Russia.  

Unless negotiators offer him a weak and easily dominated Ukraine, Putin will fight on and on, or until Russia is defeated. Therefore, the only way to stop the war is to demonstrate to Putin that he will not win, and this requires unity of effort and commitment to arming Ukraine, and sanctioning Russia from its supporters.  The US has the economic and military power to force Putin to recalculate, to force peace negotiations.  Unfortunately, it seems that Europe may need to support Ukraine alone, meaning a longer and more uncertain time for Ukraine, Europe and the World.



 

 

 

 

 

Ben Morgan is a bored Gen Xer, a former Officer in NZDF and TDBs Military Blogger – his work is on substack

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37 Comments

  1. I remember Trump stating if elected he’d end the war within 24 hours.
    So to those that believed him what makes you think Putin isn’t playing Trump like one of his pawns because it is clear that he is.
    The only thing that bully Trump does is to attack Zelensky when it is so obvious to everyone else in the world that Putin has one desire, to obliterate Ukaraine, clear the land and claim it as his own. Trump has the ability to end this war by arming Ukraine but he is cat piss weak when it comes to Putin. Two tyrannical leaders, only one is afraid of the other.

  2. Thanks Ben!
    I broadly agree with what you’re saying about Trump and peace deals. That said, if I was American, I would still have voted for him because Ukraine is way down the list of priorities for Americans.

    The problem with the USA is bigger than just Trump: Americans are a parochial people who assume everyone thinks like them and wants to be like them. In their universities and colleges, they aren’t studying world history and culture. When I was working there, I met a college graduate who didn’t know America had had a civil war. No kidding LOL!

    As Churchill said: “Americans always do the right thing…having tried all the alternatives.”

    As regards sanctions, there is a move in Congress led by Lindsay Graham to apply Congressional sanctions, and this may get bipartisan support. This would outmaneuver Trumps ego driven plan and finish Russia off.

    The lasting solution to this war remains a Russian defeat and this can now be achieved with a nudge from the West: A combination of strict sanctions and enhanced military support. Russia has lost over 900,000 men in Ukraine along with most of its armoured vehicles and artillery. Their assaults today are often by motorbike or on foot. Meanwhile Ukraine has 200 fighter pilots nearly the end of training with more jets due to arrive from EU states.

    1. 109,625 Russian casualties based on Mediazone in collaboration with the BBC based on public records of funeral notices etc in Russia. They fixed it for you all again. Either that’s laziness from Ben or just another paid Western bs article.

      1. You are correct that it’s not 900,000, but you’re not being accurate either. Mediazone say that they estimate it to be 165,000.

        But of course you knew that.

          1. They don’t say it’s an “upper limit” of 165,000. They say that’s another estimate because they acknowledge the 109625 won’t be accurate.

            They have some other interesting articles on their webpage which is why I linked to it.

          2. Even if it’s 165,000 Russian Kia that’s a fraction of Ukrainian losses. Russia can sustain their numbers, Ukraine cannot. Game over.

          3. So give us your numbers Nick. Show us the Ukrainian casualties. Point us towards some credible sources.

          5. I listen to ex NATO officers like Baud, ex US army men like McGregor and ex CIA operatives such as Johnson and McGovern. All with impeccable track records.

          6. You said “165k is a fraction of the Ukrainian casualties”.

            So put up some evidence to back up your claim.

    2. Exactly how will further sanctions finish of Russia? So far the Russian economy has thrived on being sanctioned.

    3. Andrew, you still would have voted for Trump? He proving to be even worse than he seemed in the campaign.

  3. Cry more Ben, your filthy NATO masters have lost and continue to lose

  4. Trump is full of shit and displays delusions of grandure ,which is a trait of mental illness .At the beginning of this the USA and UK told Ukraine they would arm them and it would be all over in no time .They fueled the fire and now stand back and watch it slowly burn .Nato could end this war in a week if they had the balls .Russia is getting more depleted by the day now is the time to finish them off with a massive air and sea strike .Ukraine should turn its full force on Crimea while nato should bomb the shit out of the Border else where .Take out every bridge across the river on day one and the rest is history .Get it over and done with .

    1. GW, clearly you have no idea of Russia’s capabilities. Enjoy your delusions while you can. Ever heard the Russian word for chestnut, Орешник (oreshnik)?

      1. “Trump is full of shit and displays delusions of grandure ,which is a trait of mental illness .”

        Although this much is true, add in narcissistic personality disorder.

  5. What is Europe? It is an amalgam of countries that historically have been at each other’s throats. Every time they unite it is by force, under Charlemagne, Napoleon, Hitler. Now under the EU which is trying to enforce unity by dictat. Every time this fails because at heart Europeans are nationals and ethnicities first and Europeans a distant second. Russia has never been part of this mish mash, her role has been to end the inevitable European aggressions. So predictably it is happening again. The question is what Russias terms will mean for Europe, especially economically?

    1. ” The question is what Russias terms will mean for Europe, especially economically?”

      I’m inclined to believe that sooner or later they will come to the realisation that heading East with their half arsed armies is suicide, so they will head South and try to recolonize Africa. Their economies will implode as they won’t be able to fight a protracted, long term war of conquest against guerilla or irregular forces. Then they will turn on each other. Internally then externally. Economically they are fucked.

      1. No Russian gas, oil, minerals. All now going to European economic competition. Germany industry is facing ruin, with it the EU. Who is fucked?

        1. Europe. But like I said, Europe will pivot to recolonizing Africa, and like their support of Ukraine, it will end in failure for Europe.

  6. Putin says one thing, yet we see another. His plan from the outset was crystal clear, spearheaded by a neutral, NATO-free Ukraine, and yet we believe that he not only wants to conquer all of Ukraine, but then Europe thereafter. We believe that Putin is the modern day Hitler, yet at the same time we also believe that he’s an egotistical fool in charge of a bare bones, incompetently led military. Our beliefs are all over the friggin place, yet Putin or Russia’s goals still remain the same. Meanwhile, we are gearing up for war against China and we are underpinning Israel’s massacre in the Middle East. But, no, no, no, no…Putin is the problem, China is the problem and everyone in the Middle East bar our Middle Eastern representative, Israel, is the problem there. Yes siree, we, Westerners, more specifically, our Western leaders, are a credit to inhumanity!

  8. I somehow get the impression when it comes to Putin that he has absolutely no intention on ending the War between Russia and Ukraine. He is using delaying tactics and is playing the Fiddle whilst giving Donald Trump the impression and illusion(for Trump)that Trump is the “Great Peace Maker”.
    Lets hypothetically say Ukraine falls to Russia what other country in Europe will be on Putin’s agenda???!! Putin will not stop with Ukraine and may well try to regain all those former Soviet states held by the former USSR,
    I somehow doubt a convicted felon like Trump can ever achieve anything peaceful out of a manipulating lunatic like Putin or even Netanyahu.
    Who knows but Trump could well be striving for the Nobel Peace Prize than any sense of long term peace because he is such an Ego Ridden Idiot.

  9. “understand that the West has an alternative history for…well…everything. Which sadly requires them to fictionalize history”…. in the present telling the truth can get one arrested, which helps fictionalize history, ie–“british journalists and activists critical of Israel arrested raided or detained under counterterrorism laws in the weeks and months surrounding collusion between
    the British state and Israeli embassy” https://youtu.be/XczbKSwKHQA?t=45

    “The West if fighting for “freedom” for all, except if you are Asian or African, an uppidty Latin, or most especially Palestine – the “Other Semites”.

    Russia is pathologically paranoid for no other reason than having been a pariah state since the 18th Century, and invaded by the French, the Turks, the British, the Japanese, the Allies in 1918, the Germans, with CIA attempts at terrorist subversion in the 90s. Then with Western attempts on its borders in Georgia and Ukraine.” https://julianmacfarlane.substack.com/p/putin-on-putin

    ***************************************************************************************************************

    China seems very close to Russia in their view of the Ukraine war –“China’s deputy UN rep Geng Shuang in the same session ( at the UN ), likewise reaffirmed the US’ responsibility for the Ukraine war: ” https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-53125-russian-breakthrough

    ****************************************************

    “Certainly, Russia was not strong enough in 2014 ( after the western backed violent coup ) to take on the Ukraine AND NATO — not without using tactical nukes. But what were the West’s real intentions? Could they be persuaded to adopt a different path? Putin couldn’t know.

    But he soon found out.

    Failure to implement the Minsk accords, the MH117 and Skripal false flags, CIA sponsored chemical false flag attacks in Syria and the like — and especially sanctions on both Russia and China — showed him that this new version of “the Great Game” was no game at all. More like the Hunger Games.”

    “”The Russians are not afraid to take casualties — they are fighting an existential war and every Russian has a relative who died in the Great Patriotic War. Putin therefore has enormous support, except among the Atlanticists, the elitist carpetbaggers left over from the Yeltsin kleptocracy.”

    “Let us remember that the US has not won a war against a more or less equal opponent since the Pacific War. In fact, it has lost almost every war since against less capable opponents — notably Vietnam and Afghanistan.

    They will lose this one too.”

    https://julianmacfarlane.substack.com/p/the-tao-of-vladimir-putin

    The only war Trumps winning is the war on the poor ( and average ) citizens in own his country , ie https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffaaff51e-bd54-4997-a52b-2d228a6aabc0_740x193.jpeg

    ,,, and Trumps making himself richer while doing over the vast majority of people in his own country, ie — “he’s also very interested in making lots of money . The way that works is you impose uh tariffs , um wait for stock prices to drop, buy a bunch of stocks , then you postpone the tariffs , wait for the uh stock prices to recover, sell the stocks and pocket the profits. And so Trump is doing it, his family is doing it ,his friends are doing it , everyone’s happy. https://youtu.be/71QSPPevzHU?t=264

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