BEN MORGAN: No ceasefire in sight, Trump’s position uncertain, Putin winning?

Another peace negotiation in Istanbul is rapidly approaching, however it is unlikely to result in any significant change. Aside from Putin’s recalcitrance, the key consideration for effective negotiation is the US position. The US president continues to vacillate.  President Trump talked tough this week, the BBC reporting on 29 May that “US President Donald Trump has appeared to set a two-week deadline for Vladimir Putin, threatening a different response if the Russian counterpart was still stringing him along.” However, Trump’s words again failed to transfer into action. 

Until Trump establishes a clear US position, European leaders are hamstrung and leaving Putin emboldened. Europe’s leaders are walking a delicate diplomatic tightrope, trying to balance taking a hard line against Russia with managing the Trump White House.  The rise of authoritarianism around the world, and increasing diplomatic coordination between authoritarian regimes worries European leaders. Who are trying hard to avoid providing the Trump White House with an excuse to split from Europe at a dangerous time.  

Therefore, Europe is currently taking a backseat, letting the US set the tempo of the negotiation. A pragmatic approach, motivated by needing to keep the US onside and integrated in NATO in case China, North Korea or Iran threaten European interests.  

Strategically, Trump is not demonstrating a willingness to transfer talk into action, and Putin understands that ‘talk is cheap.’ It also appears that Putin believes Trump is weak and can be kept at bay with demonstrations of resolve and force.  For example, Trump’s statements cautioning Russia, or demanding good faith negotiation are invariably met with more and larger attacks on Ukraine. 

Putin is not a grand master of strategy; his tactics are simple. He attacks Ukraine with impunity, while concurrently charming Trump.  Until the US reacts with firm actions, Putin will continue to demonstrate that he is in charge, that he sets the tempo, and that his Russia is not afraid of Trump. Probably, Putin believes that Trump will crack under the pressure and walk away blaming Europe, Ukraine and Russia for the failure to secure a ceasefire.

Meanwhile, in Ukraine and across Russia the war continues.  

The military situation in Ukraine

At operational-level, the campaign is evolving since the last article. After a brief pause Russia is now intensifying its ground operations, and appears to be threatening Ukraine’s north-east flank near Sumy.  A Russian concentration of force has been present in Belgorod for more than a month, and the border is regularly attacked. 

Russia appears to be holding forces here to threaten Sumy, a town immediately across the border, creating a dilemma for Ukraine by forcing its leader to choose whether to send troops there, or to support other parts of the frontline.  Specifically, whether Ukraine can spare troops to reinforce the area around Kostyantynivka. 

Russian forces are currently massed in Donetsk, and attacking between Pokrovsk and Kostyantynivka. Last week, we reported that Russian forces have cut the H-35 motor way that links Pokrovsk and Kostyantynivka.

Throughout the last year Russian forces have been concentrating on this part of Donetsk. Russian forces slipping north or south, trying to find a weak spot and capture an important logistics hub, either Pokrovsk or Kostyantynivka. Russia needs a town with road and rail junctions as a base for operations to capture Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.  

At this stage Russia’s main effort appears to have switched away from Pokrovsk and is now focussed on Kostyantynivka. We can expect to see Russian forces; expand their existing position on H-35, and simultaneously advance from around Toretsk toward H-35 (shown in transparent red arrows, on the map). Last week, Russian forces made several large and sudden advances near Torestsk, and Russian forces are still advancing slowly in this area.  

Enveloping Kostyantynivka from the south, then later using this town as a logistics base for an advance on Kramatorsk (shown in transparent red arrows, on the map) appears to be the Russian plan. However, the rate of advance seems to be slowing, as Ukraine stabilises the situation. 

However, a notable feature of the war since the large Ukrainian offensives in late 2022 is that once Russia takes ground it tends to be able to hold it. Therefore, the capture of the ground around the H-32 motorway is concerning because it means Russia control an important road, and is unlikely to be pushed off it. A tactically significant victory for Russia, and a situation that could provide a basis for developing more momentum.

The remainder of the frontline saw consistent activity last week, with especially strong Russian attacks near Kurakhove, Velkya Novisilika and Kupyansk. Russian attacks around Kurakhove and Velkya Novisilika are probably supporting efforts to envelop Pokrovsk from the south. 

Further north, near Kupyansk, Russian forces are trying to secure a defensive line along the Oskil River, and push south towards Lyman, a town that is a major transport hub. Russia lost Lyman in 2022, along with an enormous amount of equipment.  If captured, Lyman provides a base to advance from the north towards Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.  

Although none of these attacks were successful, they demonstrate that Russia is still able to maintain offensive activity.

Ukraine’s drone wall

Recently, mainstream media started discussing Ukraine’s ‘drone wall,’ a plan to fortify the border using drones. For example, on 29 May CNN reported that “The Ukrainians are trying to expand their own drone industry to create defensive corridors along key sections of the front line, often dubbed the “drone wall” and a week earlier the Guardian reported that “Ukraine’s ambassador to the UK has said Kyiv should focus on fighting a “hi-tech war of survival that minimises the loss of its military personnel and not expect to recapture Russian-occupied territory, including Crimea and in the Donbas.” 

Ukraine’s plan involves creating a ‘kill web,’ an area in which ubiquitous surveillance, digital communications, artillery and drones work together to create a dense defensive fire zone. The zone would be approximately 10-15km deep and would inflict heavy casualties on any attacking force. 

The media coverage is interesting; but Ukraine is already deploying these capabilities to help to offset Russia’s numeric advantages. Interpreting this information there seem to be two broad assessments; either Ukraine is aiming to defend most of its frontline with less soldiers releasing some for offensive operations, or Ukraine is running out of soldiers and the drone wall is required to prevent Russian advances. Time will tell which of these assessments is correct and as Ukraine adapts its tactics on the battlefield, international support continues to evolve. 

European support increases

Regardless of the need to manage Trump, European nations are also increasing their aid to Ukraine. Germany recently removed restrictions on the use of Taurus missiles, and announced a deal to work with Ukraine to develop long-range missiles. German Chancellor Merz stating that “Our defence ministers will sign a memorandum of understanding today regarding the procurement of Ukrainian-made long-range weapons systems.” Alongside this deal, Germany also committed another Euro 5 billion in aid. 

Across Europe countries are increasing their support for Ukraine, specially helping it to expand its defence industrial base. For example, Denmark recently passed laws allowing their country to pay Ukrainian companies for equipment. This model supports Ukraine, and builds the nation’s defence industry. Already, Denmark has allocated Euro 800 million to this programme.

Sweden also recently announced a US$ $499 million aid package, US$ 104 million of which will be delivered using the Danish model.  A method that we are likely to see used more often as European nations try to strengthen Ukraine’s defence industry, and take advantage of its efficiency to deliver weapons more quickly than can be delivered through their own defence procurement processes.  

Additionally, the European Union approved the first phase of its ReArm Europe plan. A plan that includes governance arrangements for common defence procurement, the Security Action for Europe (SAFE) financial instrument.  This initiative allows greater efficiency for purchasing a range of military equipment, Ukraine is eligible to receive funding through the programme and to purchase European equipment more easily.

This activity is noteworthy because it demonstrates an unintended consequence of the Trump White House’s chaotic foreign policy, and belligerence towards Europe. Now, faced with an uncertain ally, European nations are investing in their own defence industries. The flow on effect will be more local procurement, and less military equipment being sourced from the US.  Essentially, Trump’s actions have undermined the US defence industry’s most profitable market, and given a boost to its European competitors. 

Conclusion

In conclusion, this week is defined by uncertainty. Strategically, the world is waiting to see if Trump will change his position and take action to encourage Putin to negotiate. Meanwhile, in Donetsk Russian forces recently made tactically significant advances, capturing ground that blocks the H-32 motorway.  It appears that Ukraine has stabilised the situation, but can they re-capture the road?  Or, will Russia gain momentum and create more success?  We can only wait and see. 

However, Europe is mobilising and regardless of American vacillation Ukraine is being supported both now, and in the future. The European Union is creating sensible financial support arrangements that will benefit both Ukraine, and Europe’s defence industries.  

Putin shows no sign of wanting to negotiate, and a ceasefire will only be delivered if there is no other option. In the next few weeks, Trump and Europe will be tested, and one or the other will have the opportunity to set a new, and assertive position with Russia.  The next few weeks will be a test of political leadership, and the world will see whether Trump accepts that challenge.  

 

Ben Morgan is a bored Gen Xer, a former Officer in NZDF and TDBs Military Blogger – his work is on substack