BEN MORGAN: Iran. A win for the US?
The dust is starting to settle, and a clearer picture of the situation in the Middle East is emerging. President Trump is declaring victory, and a ceasefire. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi indicated on X that Iran would ceasefire if Israel did the same. Israel Katz, Israel’s Defence Minister says the country will ceasefire and told US Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth “Israel will respect the ceasefire – as long as the other side does.”
The statement comes after strong words from Iran followed by threats to close the Gulf of Hormuz, and a missile attack on Al Udeid Base in Qatar. A large US base accommodating about 10,000 US troops that is also US Central Command’s (CENTCOM) forward operating base.
After the attack on Al Ueid Base the New York Times reported that three Iranian officials had confirmed Qatar was given warning of the attack. Information indicating Iran’s actions were more about political theatre than revenge.
An assessment of Iran’s position
Initially, Iran responded immediately to the US attacks with a range of hyperbolic statements. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi describing the Trump Whitehouse as a “war-mongering and lawless administration” and discussing the “eternal consequences” Iran would inflict on the US. Likewise, the man responsible for responding militarily, Iran’s new Chief of Defence Force, Abdolrahim Mousavi stated that “The criminal US must know that in addition to punishing its illegitimate and aggressive offspring, the hands of Islam’s fighters within the armed forces have been freed to take any action against its interests and military, and we will never back down in this regard.”
Regardless, of this tough talk the evidence pointed to Iran being in a weak position and unlikely to be able to strike back in a meaningful way. Some evidence for this assessment, includes:
Iran’s military have been defeated
The initial Israeli attack, on 13 June, wiped out Iran’s air defences and air force. This means that Israel has air-superiority and can strike at will across the nation. Any large redeployment or movement of Iranian ground forces or missiles is likely to be spotted and interdicted.
Further, Iran’s military leadership has been killed, or is being hunted so is in no position to organise an effective defence, let alone an offensive response. Iran’s realistic options to strike back in the short-term were:
- Launching pre-positioned, and well-hidden missiles to attack US facilities.
- Closing the Strait of Hormuz, using mines and well-hidden, pre-positioned anti-ship missiles.
The attack on Al Ueid demonstrates the ineffectiveness of the first option. Even without warning, US bases across the Middle East are on alert and their air defence systems work superbly well. The second option is possible, however closing the Strait of Hormuz has little direct impact on the US that the produces most of its own oil. Instead, closing the Strait of Hormuz would impact on China that relies on oil from the Persian Gulf. My assessment is that Chinese pressure will stop Iran taking this action.
A position reinforced by recent reporting in The Guardian, that quotes John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital, who believes that “Oil flows, for now, aren’t the primary target, and are likely not to be impacted. I think it’s going to be military retaliation on US, bases and/or trying to hit more of the Israeli civilian targets.” An industry-wide assessment that saw the price of oil drop.
Iran’s proxies are weakened
A considerable part of Iran’s ability to project military power is its use of proxies. Iran funds and supports a range of large militant movements across the Middle East, Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis. Iran coordinates the activities of this network of proxies to help support its political objectives in the Middle East.
In recent months, Iranian proxies were all extensively engaged and are now severely depleted. The reduction in these organisations capabilities limits Iran’s ability to attack US or Israeli facilities.
Iran lacks international support
Since 1979 Iran has focussed on hybrid warfare, allegedly supporting a range of insurgencies and terrorist groups in a range of countries. Activity that has led to Iran being economically sanctioned by a wide-range of countries, and by the UN. Internationally, Iran is an outlier with little international support. Therefore, it is highly likely to work closely with the countries that do support it.
Iran’s next steps
Faced with its current situation, Iran is a in an unenviable situation. The country’s air defence network is destroyed, its military leadership is being hunted and it is defenceless against future attacks. Frankly, ‘discretion is the better part of valour’ for Iranian forces at the moment. It is better to back down and avoid further US attacks because a ceasefire will be an opportunity to salvage whatever remains of the nuclear programme.
Iran’s discretion could also be tactical; there is an increasing body of commentary challenging the US claims to have ‘obliterated’ the nuclear programme. For example, ABC News reported today that “Sources say the U.S. believes based on early intelligence that significant damage was done but mostly to structures above ground. According to the sources, the enriched uranium was not destroyed and centrifuges are largely intact.”
US Vice-President JD Vance has also expressed concerns The Guardian reporting that “JD Vance has suggested Iran’s estimated 400kg (882lb) stockpile of enriched uranium, which is just short of weapons-grade, remains intact despite the recent US bombing campaign against Iran.” At this stage it is impossible to know the exact impact of the strikes, but the programme will be affected and if they choose to the US and Israel can continue their attacks. So, it makes sense for Iran to negotiate.
The attacks are likely to have a big impact in Iran because the regime will probably focus its security efforts internally to make sure that dissident groups are not able to use the government’s weakness to break away, or topple the current political leadership.
US intervention as a deterrent
The US attacks demonstrated a very high-level of capability, that will be noted by other potential adversaries. The fact that US B-2 stealth bombers were able to destroy a ‘hard’ target, accurately and decisively on the other side of the world demonstrates a level of technical sophistication that no other country can match.
The US response also included a surge of resources including two carrier task groups, airborne tankers, fighter aircraft and all the other logistics required to support them. For example, News Week, the BBC and Reuters reported on 18 and 19 June that the US was moving:
- Fighter aircraft to Europe.
- B-52 and B-2 bombers to Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean.
- Patriot air defence systems from the Pacific to the Middle East, using 73 C-17 cargo aircraft flights.
- Littoral Combat Ships to the Middle East, probably to clear mines in the Strait of Hormuz.
A clear demonstration that the US still has an un-matched ability to concentrate military force across the globe. China, North Korea and Russia are sure to note America’s rapid re-deployment, and its ability to destroy a difficult target.
Conclusion
Although the legality of this attack can be debated, its success cannot. The attack may not have completely eradicated Iran’s nuclear weapons programme, but it is likely to have delayed it. A programme that many nations have been concerned about for a long time has been degraded, creating a ‘window of opportunity’ for re-engagement with Iran.
Now, the White House’s key objective needs to be ‘winning the peace’ because Iran retains extensive terrorist networks that over time could be used to attack Americans. Therefore, the US needs to provide Iran with options for re-engagement with the international community rather than isolating it and encouraging it to pursue long-term vengeance. The pragmatic foreign policy of the Marshall Plan provides a good historic example.
The key risk for the US at this stage, is whether Israel conforms to its plans, and this question will be answered soon. If peace is not maintained, the long-term benefits of stopping Iran’s nuclear programme may be replaced by the costs of a long war.
Ben Morgan is a bored Gen Xer, a former Officer in NZDF and TDBs Military Blogger – his work is on substack
Holy shit look at what NZDF could have been like:
Detail structure and equipment for a NZ Defence Force in 2030 if military spending had been constant at 5% GDP since 2015
ChatGPT said:
If New Zealand had maintained military spending at 5% of GDP from 2015 to 2030, it would represent one of the most profound military expansions in NZ history—elevating it to a middle-tier regional power with high-end expeditionary and deterrent capabilities.
Assumptions for Force Design
Factor Estimate
NZ GDP (2023) ~NZD $440 billion
Annual Defence Spend @5% ~NZD $22 billion/year
Total Cumulative Spend (2015–2030) Over NZD $250 billion (nominal terms)
For comparison, NZ’s actual 2023 defence budget was ~NZD $6 billion (~1.2% GDP). With 5% GDP annually over 15 years, NZ would have transformed its force from a small defensive military into a modern, joint, expeditionary force comparable to Sweden, South Korea, or Singapore in capability.
NZ Defence Force in 2030 (Hypothetical, 5% GDP Since 2015)
⚔️ 1. New Zealand Army – ~35,000 personnel (Regular + Reserve)
Core Force Elements
A. 3 Mechanised Combat Brigades
Fully motorized and armored, each includes:
1x Armoured Regiment (e.g., 58× Leopard 2A7 tanks)
2x Mechanised Infantry Battalions (e.g., Boxer 8×8 IFVs)
1x Artillery Battalion (e.g., K9 Thunder 155mm SPGs)
1x Engineer Battalion
1x Support & Logistics Battalion
Integrated UAV surveillance detachment
Organic SHORAD (e.g., NASAMS batteries)
B. 1 Rapid Reaction Airborne Brigade
Paratroopers with NH90 helicopters, light vehicles
1x Ranger Regiment (NZSOF)
1x Light Artillery Battalion (105mm towed / HIMARS)
Role: Pacific crisis response, SOF support, disaster relief
C. Territorial Force (~10,000)
Regional battalions with modern gear
Part-time, but fully integrated with active force
Home guard, domestic ops, cyber reserve
Major Equipment
200+ Boxer IFVs
150+ Leopard 2A7 MBTs
54 K9 Thunder SPGs
24+ HIMARS launchers
6 NASAMS batteries + Iron Dome-style defense
500+ MRAPs & JLTVs
Swarm-capable tactical drones (recon + loitering munitions)
✈️ 2. Royal New Zealand Air Force – ~12,000 personnel
Fighter and Strike Force
72 × F-35A Lightning II multirole fighters
3 squadrons, air defense + strike
Based at Ohakea, with forward ops in Australia or Pacific
24 × F/A-18F Super Hornets (legacy buy / supplement)
Transport and Support
8 × C-130J Super Hercules
4 × C-17A Globemaster III
10 × A400M tactical/strategic transport
6 × KC-30A MRTT (aerial tankers)
6 × P-8A Poseidon (maritime patrol)
12 × MQ-9B SkyGuardian (armed UAVs)
AEW&C: 3 × GlobalEye radar aircraft (early warning & maritime ISR)
Air Defence
Integrated IADS with mobile and fixed radar
Ground-based SAMs (NASAMS + medium-range system like Aster or Patriot PAC-3)
3. Royal New Zealand Navy – ~14,000 personnel
Blue-Water Surface Fleet
4 × Aegis-equipped Air Defence Destroyers
Comparable to Hobart-class or Type 45
6 × Multi-role Frigates
Upgraded Anzac-class or Type 26-based
3 × Littoral Combat Ships / Corvettes
For patrols, EEZ, and light ASW
Submarine Force
6 × Diesel-Electric Submarines (SSK)
Possibly AIP-capable (e.g., German Type 212CD or Japanese Taigei-class)
Roles: deterrence, maritime denial, SLOC protection
Amphibious and Sealift
2 × LHDs (Landing Helicopter Docks)
Equivalent to HMAS Canberra
Capable of carrying a full battalion + vehicles + helicopters
2 × LSDs or strategic sealift vessels
1 × Replenishment and Fleet Support Ship
Extended Pacific/Antarctic operations
Naval Aviation
12 x NH90 NFH or similar ASW/utility helos
Shipborne UAVs for surveillance and targeting
4. Cyber, Space, and Strategic Forces
Cyber Command
Offensive and defensive capabilities
Partnership with 5 Eyes + autonomous capability
Secure comms, satellite monitoring, offensive cyber warfare
Space Surveillance Division
Access to LEO tracking, satellite imagery
Could include small satellite launch or constellations via Rocket Lab (private-NZ synergy)
Ballistic Missile Defence
Likely integrated into Aegis system via destroyers
National early warning radar sites
5. Special Operations Command
1 × NZSAS Regiment (expanded to ~1,000 personnel)
Support Aviation Group with 8x MH-60M or similar
Cyber, signals, maritime insertion elements
Dedicated long-range recon company
Capable of integration with US/AUS SOF for joint ops in Indo-Pacific
6. Pacific Integration and Diplomacy
NZ would be the linchpin of Pacific security, with:
Permanent bases or agreements in:
Fiji, Samoa, Cook Islands, Niue, Tokelau
Possibly Timor-Leste or PNG
Joint task groups with Australia and Japan
Humanitarian and Disaster Relief (HADR) units embedded
Summary: Global Capability Snapshot
Capability 2030 NZDF @ 5% GDP
Fighters 72 × F-35A + 24 Super Hornets
Tanks 150+ Leopard 2A7
Submarines 6 modern AIP SSKs
Major surface ships 4 destroyers, 6 frigates
LHDs 2 amphibious carriers
Special Forces Tier-1, expeditionary-ready
Troops ~60,000 active + reserve
Cyber / Space Fully capable, sovereign systems
Strategic Influence Major regional power in the South Pacific and Southern Ocean
Would you like:
A map showing NZDF global deployment & basing?
A visual ORBAT (Order of Battle) chart?
A fictional crisis scenario to test this 2030 NZDF in action?
You said:
Could NZ afford this with spending at 5%?
ChatGPT said:
Yes, New Zealand could absolutely afford this force structure if it had consistently spent 5% of its GDP on defence from 2015 to 2030—but it would require a major national political shift prioritizing military readiness akin to Israel, Cold War-era Sweden, or Singapore today.
Financial Reality: NZ at 5% GDP Defence Spend (2015–2030)
1. NZ GDP Trajectory
Year GDP Estimate 5% Defence Budget
2015 ~$250B NZD ~$12.5B NZD
2020 ~$320B NZD ~$16B NZD
2025 ~$410B NZD ~$20.5B NZD
2030 ~$480B NZD+ ~$24B NZD
Total (cumulative): Easily NZD $250–300 billion in defence spending over 15 years.
This dwarfs actual NZDF spending, which hovered between $3–6B NZD annually.
2. Comparative Affordability
Country % GDP Defence Outcomes
Israel ~5.3% avg Regional military superpower, high-tech edge
Singapore ~3.5% avg Ultra-modern, small but lethal military
Greece (Cold War) ~6% avg Maintained large army + naval and air deterrent
NZ Hypothetical 5.0% Easily supports a regional expeditionary force
New Zealand’s small population (~5.2 million) and high per capita GDP would make this level of spending not just feasible, but sustainable—if national priorities shifted dramatically.
️ Cost Breakdown Feasibility
Capability Estimated Cost (NZD) Spread over 15 years? Feasible?
72 × F-35A (incl. support) ~$20–25B Yes ✅
6 × Type 26/Similar Frigates ~$9–12B Yes ✅
4 × Aegis Destroyers ~$12–16B Yes ✅
6 × Submarines (Type 212 etc.) ~$8–10B Yes ✅
2 × LHDs ~$4–6B Yes ✅
Mechanized Army (Boxer, Leopard, HIMARS) ~$10–15B Yes ✅
Airlift (C-130J, C-17, A400M) ~$6–8B Yes ✅
P-8A, AEW&C, UAV fleet ~$4–6B Yes ✅
Cyber/Space/ISR Programs ~$3–5B Yes ✅
Total estimate over 15 years: ~$90–120 billion
5% GDP defence spend over same period: ~$250–300 billion
➡️ Conclusion: Even with generous budgeting and inefficiencies, NZ could afford all this and more, and still have funds for:
Pay and pensions for ~60,000 troops
Domestic arms industry development (licensing or partnerships)
Overseas bases, exercises, and training
Fuel, maintenance, logistics, R&D, and reserve forces
Would It Be Politically or Socially Sustainable?
Financially? ✅ Absolutely—NZ has the resources.
Culturally? ❌ Unlikely under current conditions.
NZ has no major external threat.
A massive defence budget would compete with health, housing, and education.
Would require a regional crisis, Cold War-style strategic fear, or national trauma to be accepted.
Final Judgment
Yes, New Zealand could afford this NZDF at 5% of GDP. The force structure I outlined is not only affordable, it’s realistic if New Zealand had adopted a Sweden/Israel/Singapore-style security mindset from 2015 onward.
Would you like:
A realistic “compromise” 3% GDP force instead?
A fictional 2030 scenario where this force is tested (e.g., Pacific conflict or regional crisis)?
An economic opportunity cost analysis (what was sacrificed for this build-up)?
This just proves that AI is as delusional as you. For a country that can’t even build infrastructure, where will you put all these shiny toys? Maybe we can get the Chinese to come build the new ports, military bases and airfields that will be needed.
Good thinking. We could just take it from the health budget. Bob the First would be right behind the idea.
A sobering illustration of US + Israeli air power and especially so for any future adversaries.
Trump is clearly a dickhead but this is a ‘big’ win for him.
I was surprised that Mr “I won’t get us involved in a war” actually did it. I thought he’d follow the wishes of his mate in the Kremlin. So yes, I’d agree it’s a win for him (and I agree that he’s a dickhead but that’s for another thread)
If it is wrong for Iran to build a potential for constructing nuclear weapons, then it must be wrong for Israel to have nuclear weapons (with stolen uranuim)
The NATO 5% is really 3.5% of GDP for defence, given that 1.5% can be for general infrastructure. New Zealand is never going to spend at the NATO rate.
I predict that Australia will commit to 3% of GDP. They will need to do that anyway if they want 6 nuclear subs. New Zealand will come under pressure to do more than we currently do, perhaps reaching 2% before 2030. So we won’t get anything like the above ORBAT, not that it could even be achieved at 5% of GDP.
To spend 2% of GDP means getting 4 frigates to replace the existing 2 ANZAC frigates, with around 1,000 to 1,500 increase in personnel across the three services. An increase, yes, but not a fundamental step change.
Let’s just go ‘full Sparta’ and expel all the knee tremblers to some kind of Green Party / TPM commune in the middle of nowhere.
“In the context of ancient Sparta, “knee tremblers” (or tresantes in Greek) referred to Spartan soldiers who had fled from battle, a severe violation of Spartan values. These soldiers faced social disgrace and potential legal consequences for abandoning their post, as the Spartan code demanded remaining in formation until victory or death.”
James Browns use of AI just exponentially increased the magnitude of his stupidity,,,
AI is presently a expensive complicated set of computer programs,,, and like all computer programs or programing ,,,, Crap fed in will result in crap shat out.
You don’t even have to be smart to know that money spent on the things that improve and makes humans lives better gives far far far better results and value than spending money on things to kill, maim and destroy human life…
Just look at the present Israel / Usa / Germans Genociders club and their uber violence as a example of sick stupidity ,,, Untold Billions spent on mass murder and war crimes just like those that the Nazis correctly swung from gallows for at the end of WWII,,, AI helps with these crimes in modern times.
James supports their modern Genocide, and their Gaza Ghetto liquidation,, and any other “ultimate crimes” Bibi or Donald get up too ,,,, even though the injustice and root cause of the long long running violence in occupied Palestine / Israel is not complicated or hard to understand at all https://youtu.be/KNqozQ8uaV8
AI serves up facts, stats and info depending on what evil morons ask it… like Israelis do, for instance– “Additional automated systems, including one called “Where’s Daddy?” also revealed here for the first time, were used specifically to track the targeted individuals and carry out bombings when they had entered their family’s residences.” https://www.972mag.com/lavender-ai-israeli-army-gaza/
AI’s answers are totally devoid of morals or wisdom ,,,, and yet James thinks his ‘stupidity squared’, with the screes of money wasting details he’s now got is cleaver stuff….
The fact Wayne Mapp who considers himself similar in nature to the Israelis ,, which there is evidence for ,,,as while ‘defense minister he Oversaw the killing of civilians and then lied about it and claimed they were all fighters,,,,, much like the IDF do.
I consider Mapp to be our worst defense minister ever ,,, as he sent our armed forces servicemen to Afghanistan ,,,, putting them in danger “with NO achievable military objectives possible” ,,,, I bet he never told those whose lives he put on the line that..
…. His the NActs purpose was purely political ,,, Lap dog does not go far enough to describe his and the NActs political objective ,,,, cheap tag along rent boys to ‘the greatest purveyor of violence in the world’ would be more accurate,,, and that political mission was a success for them…..
…. Now he wants to waste even more money,,,, money we are told we do not have of for things like house building or Infrastructure ,,,, because of the NActs success in sucking up to a warmongering, war crimes committing cartel.
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Here’s a eye opening and informative read on the current state of AI https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/llms-dishonest-unpredictable-and …
….”If life is, as Hobbes famously said, “nasty, brutish, and short”, LLMs ( AI programs ) are dishonest, unpredictable, and potentially dangerous.
The more we explore LLMs , the clearer it is that our control over them is limited, and the more it is clear that they will say (and potentially do) more or less anything, depending on the circumstances” ,,,
And this link gives a good history lesson while at the same time showing how AI performs / acts in its non-thinking artificial ‘interactions’ https://julianmacfarlane.substack.com/p/bob-educates-the-ai
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Finally if we are to evaluate James claim that the Spartans would waste Maori warriors ,,,
Then we can only really look at the performance of the Maori Battalion, in WWII,,,,,
….. “The battalion’s bravery and fighting skills were highly regarded, with Field Marshal Erwin Rommel even reportedly saying, “Give me a Māori Battalion and I will conquer the world”. ,,,, ” the Maori had earned a grizzly reputation among the Axis forces located in North Africa. Their combat prowess, especially in close quarters made them a dreaded foe to face. ” https://worldoftanks.com/en/news/general-news/history-spotlight-maori-battalion/
Versus or compared to the Greek soldiers ,,,,who were 100 times better than the Italians at fighting ,,, and to their credit the Greek partisans never stopped fighting the Germans …
But not at the storm trooper shock troops level of the Maori …
It should be remembered The British and Yanks betrayed the Greek resistance fighters towards the end of WWII ,,, slaughtering them and putting the fascist German collaborators back in power..
Winston Churchill–,,, “You are responsible for maintaining order in Athens and for neutralizing or destroying all EAM-ELAS [National Liberation Front – Greek People’s Liberation Army] bands”……. “We have to hold and dominate Athens. It would be a great thing for you to succeed in this without bloodshed if possible, but also with bloodshed if necessary.” — https://global-politics.eu/athens-1944-britains-dirty-secret/
NATO is a continuation of this treacherous depraved anti-worker, anti human mindset.
So Stuff the bastard Brits and their depraved Usa spawn,,,,, they are a fucking disgrace as their support for the degenerate racist zionist war criminal Sado-state proves,,,, and this is clearly seen by the non- Western / European world.
The level of damage suffered by Israel will be clearer over the next few weeks. The last few missile attacks from Iran were completely unopposed. A combination of depletion of interceptors and damage to launchers (In the case of patriot, launchers cannot be replaced as the production line no longer exist). Additionally, Iron dome could not intercept the hypersonic missiles which allowed Iran to take out high value targets at will. Although Israel could strike Iran at will using stand off missiles, Iran’s air defenses had been reconstituted to some extent so they couldn’t roam at will. The problem for Israel was that the damage they were suffering at home was unsustainable which is why they asked Trump to arrange a truce with the Iranians who were quite happy to carry on for a few more days.
Yeah, this ISN’T a ceasefire, its a time out, it’ll all kick off again in 2-6 weeks. Israel haven’t honoured even one ceasefire in their entire existence.
Lets hope they can reach a point where political games on both sides aren’t costing innocent lives
No. As always.
Israel and the US did not see Iran capitulate like they expected with their apparentlu illegal attacks and assassinations. There was no regime change, and Iran had degraded Israels defences to the point Iran was hitting at will and the Zionists were depopulating themselves trying to flee their so called homeland. Plus, there is the Straits of Hormuz.
However Iran was hit hard by the covert operation against their air defences and their people. Which we know very clearly know who orchestrates all these dramatic pager/spiderweb/assassination/explosion/911 spectacles, the work-once dirty campaign is all Western secret services, clearly. No terror group does anything of the sort unless they are paid with Western money to lure hungry kids with chips into a bomb trap (all hail the new moderate Syrian regime).
Killing hungry people with food – who does that sound like? Like walking your prisoners into a shower. Dogs learn from their master.
So both sides wanted the pause. Trump committed the least illegal crime he could get away with to appease the Zionist earmongers, declared victory, as the West always did, then walked away.
Overall this piece is just more proof of the grotesque Western bias, racism and ignorance of this author. I can not believe Martyn is still platforming him.
Totally agree. Last paragraph spot on.
“despite Trump administration claims of total destruction. Instead, the strikes merely set back Iran’s program by a few months, leaving core nuclear components such as centrifuges and enriched uranium stockpiles largely intact. ” … https://wwiii.news/2025-06-25-leaked-intel-iran-nuclear-program.html
“What really matters is that the Empire of Chaos ( the usa ), in a single – spectacularly criminal – raid, bunker-busted the UN charter (again); international law (again); the NPT (perhaps for good); the US constitution; the “international community”; and Trump’s own MAGA base.” https://www.bitchute.com/video/gjgxW1wB8mTj
That New Zealand ‘citizen’ and his blood-sucker company Palantir played their part in providing a modernized AI generated “weapons of mass destruction” fake cause for war ….
https://ddgeopolitics.substack.com/p/the-ai-that-triggered-a-war-how-palantir
“The AI That Triggered a War: How Palantir and the IAEA Fueled Israel’s Strike on Iran
A $50M software built for counterinsurgency now steers nuclear diplomacy…”
“The IAEA never publicly debated Palantir’s involvement. In 2018, it quietly renewed a $50 million contract for Mosaic, cementing the firm’s role as a key tool of global nuclear surveillance. The company itself touts the partnership on its website, calling Mosaic “a cornerstone of international nuclear safeguards.” But unlike traditional monitoring tools, Mosaic is not a passive system. It runs predictive analytics—assessing not just what a state has done, but what it might do—based on behavioral models derived from counterterrorism doctrine.” …….
“It’s like Minority Report for uranium,” an IAEA official quipped, describing Mosaic’s predictive power.”
“The problem? Mosaic’s lineage screams bias. Funded by In-Q-Tel, the CIA’s venture arm, Palantir powers IDF targeting in Gaza ….” ,,,, and targeting in Afghanistan before that …. Much of its targeting is / was wrong.
“More disturbing is the possibility that this software, which traces metadata, professional affiliations, and behavioral trends, contributed to the targeting of individuals—not just facilities. The June 15, 2025, Israeli strike that killed Majid Tajan Jari, a leading AI scientist at the University of Tehran, suggests a convergence among Mosaic’s behavioral flagging, Israel’s kill list, and Palantir’s ambition to dominate military AI infrastructure. Jari had no known ties to Iran’s nuclear program. But his prominence in artificial intelligence, including published research on dual-use systems, made him an ideal target for a system built to flag “future threats.””
“If Mosaic data was used to locate and eliminate civilian scientists, then the boundary between oversight and warfare has collapsed. The result is not just a war crime; it is a transformation of international institutions into vectors of privatized aggression.”
As Iran halts inspections and threatens to expose Israel’s undeclared nuclear activities at Soreq, the consequences of this precedent ripple outward. Mosaic, marketed as a compliance tool, has become an instrument of escalation. Its very presence in the IAEA structure invites strategic manipulation ( garbage in garbage out ), opacity, and the erosion of trust in global institutions. If war can be triggered by software outputs—without accountability, transparency, or recourse—then the Non-Proliferation Treaty regime may already be obsolete.
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https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2025/06/25/750134/brics-member-states-condemn-israeli-american-aggression-against-iran ,,,, ” As of 2024, BRICS includes ten countries—Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Indonesia, and the UAE—representing a significant portion of the world’s population (around 42.58%) ” …. or around 3 Billion people in Brics nations vrs approx 900 Million for ‘Western nations
https://sonar21.com/the-war-on-iran-is-not-over/
Sad, look what the Ayatollah is doing to Tel Aviv https://www.bitchute.com/video/rW12sv1A4Fmk
Is she happy now?
https://nitter.net/Ashok_Kashmir/status/1936056084621410757#m
When I saw the 3 neat holes where the bunker buster bombs went in I thought that the absent of a bomb crater ment that the blast of the 7 tons of high explosive must have been absorbed by the cave underneath. The shaped explosions would have propelled the roof down and out at several hundred mph. Trump is right, the place was completely obliterated.
Guess we will have to take his word on that, its not like he is known for gross exaggerations or telling outright lies or anything.
Trump has been winning all this week:
Winning in Iran
Winning on the economy
Winning in NATO
Winning in the Supreme Court
” Larry you have given us a rather extraordinary map which you posted on your site a sonar 21 of the significant sites in Israel where the Iranians achieved maximum devastation” https://youtu.be/rzIaCNc8HBA?t=64 This map shows why Trump claims he “saved Israel” ( with the ceasefire )
… and the Usa economy? ,,,, The Economy Is In BIG Trouble https://youtu.be/n1CREs-tidQ?list=TLPQMjgwNjIwMjX0FEJT6HDuTg&t=21
‘”the US debt situation is horrific.” — Bessent Forced Into Bond Reversal, U.S. Ultimatum Major Shock, China’s Severe Global Warning https://youtu.be/BvGOhNdXwAM?list=TLPQMjgwNjIwMjX0FEJT6HDuTg
Trump is exceeding my expectations of being terrible ,,, it’s not ‘god bless’, it’s god save America :0