As hung Parliament looms – All eyes on Ilam
The last two polls paint a hung Parliament.
The intensity and polarisation currently inside our political landscape will erupt when the full force of the global economic meltdown kicks in.
I think 15% Food inflation by June is a real possibility.
The true impact of the fragility of the Global Economy isn’t understood or appreciated.
The ingredients for stagflation are here waiting to ignite.
This is going to cause voters to demand more in terms of solutions than the agreed neoliberal straightjacket Labour and National are locked into.
This is a possibility for TOP whose solution based focus is a breath of fresh air in a stagnant economic debate.
Raf Manji is a very likeable, very smart, uber cosmopolitan voice of reason and genuine commitment to see some real fundamental change. He is Cabinet Level entry ready and has remarkable intellectual muscle.
You want this guy at the top table.
TOPs pragmatism is going to be and is being, incredibly attractive to many voters who are burnt by National and Labour.
With Brownlee standing down, Raf has a real chance of taking Ilam and by doing so, bring in a coat tail of maybe as many as 3 or 4 MPs.
That would give TOP an enormous amount of political leverage.
So much so, it would be stupid for Chippy to rule out a cup of tea with Raf in Ilam in the lead up to the election to ensure his win and MPs to give Labour room to negotiate amongst the Māori Party and Greens.
If Chippy is serious about rebuilding and future proofing NZ from climate change while boosting public services, he is going too require a Broadchurch of Parties.
Labour might gain 51% with Greens and Māori Party, but that gives those Parties enormous leverage post election. If TOP were added to that 51%, not only does Labour manage to temper the zeal from the Left, he brings middle NZ via TOP with Labour.
Labour strategists need to step up and start using MMP strategically.
Using MMP strategically is what is happening in the Māori electorates, indeed if played out right, the Māori Electorates can generate MMP overhang which makes it harder for the Right to get to 51%.
If Winston crosses 5%, Labour will need TOP plus the Māori Party, plus the Greens.
A grand coalition of NZ with Labour, Greens, Māori Party, NZ First and TOP.
Now we are talking real Democracy that could finally have the political muscle to tax the rich to rebuild our egalitarian country.
The reality of the economic pain about to be felt will generate these political currents whether we like it or not.
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“A grand coalition of NZ with Labour, Greens, Māori Party, NZ First and TOP.”
Who’d get what, d’you think?
There will be no grand coalition of the left. Labour has driven this country into the dust and the economic ramifications of their ineptitude are now starting to bite. When voters see headlines like “1 million per month spent on consultants for Maori Health Authority” and “24 billion bill for climate change” they soon see the stark reality of why inflation is in double digits and mortgage rates are escalating alongside. When lay offs start the anger will spill over. Net result a landslide victory for National and ACT. Labour will be lucky to see the treasury benches for a decade which is nothing less than they deserve.
Don’t agree Martyn. That won’t be a grand coalition, it will be a cluster wracked by infighting and backstabbing. Labour can’t do anything with their super majority, how will it go with all those other tiddlers piggybacking? The latest Greens spat is just a warm up. National is just waiting a bit longer to swap out Luxon for Willis to give her enough time to build up momentum and to do it close enough to the election so that chippy can’t call a snappy. A la Jacinda.
I agree and disagree. Agree with your comment up until Willis re Ardern.
Ardern and Willis are two different beasts and Willis succession most definitely won’t enhance National. She is a screecher.
The National party need a complete overhaul. I’d start by retaining Dr Shane Reti only and build the new National party around him.
Target the middle with policies that support all New Zealanders not just the top %1
The sad thing is Willis is still more marketable than Luxon
Thank you for acknowledging the importance of TOP’s economic policy. Unfortunately if you tell a NZ voter that their country and the lives of their friends and neighbors can be improved by greater investment in public services and wealth redistribution they’ll love the idea. Tell them that this means they’ll need to start paying a little more in taxes (including on wealth) and they’ll be outraged at the suggestion.
It’s not only neo-liberal straight jacket it is also an electoral straight jacket that no major party dare challenge despite the daily horror stories of our chronically underfunded health service.
I’m just going to sit with a quiet cuppa and ponder “talking real Democracy that could finally have the political muscle to tax the rich to rebuild our egalitarian country.”
If a party is in power with 100 out of the 120 seats do they have the political muscle to tax the rich to rebuild our egalitarian country?
If they have 64? If they have 64 plus 10 or 12 from others parties? Is there a magic number, some barrier to be crossed which will enable boldness?
Does it take 64 +10 + 2 + a TOP up of 4 to give the magic number?
Ilam is the oldest of old money, it’s a suburb away from me but an entirely different world where they won’t speak to you if you went to public school.
2020 was a fluke, it’s about as dark blue as it gets…
I’m not sure if a seat deal would do much difference BUT even if it did, Labour here, has no interest, I’ve talked about it with Labour activists and mp’s and they say “like hell” they also scoff at doing a seat deal in dunnes old seat or Welly central.
Labour unlike national will not game mmp, as foolish as it is not to…
But …. Let’s be real….
There would be no grand coalition.
If labour needed the votes of five parties but national needed the votes of three parties the centerist parties would waltz on over to national and demand cabinet positions and the one good thing about that scenario is the centerist parties would keep act out of cabinet.
I do want both top and NZ first in parliament though, there is definitely space for a radical centerist party like top and socially conservative but economically Keynesian party like NZ first. It’d make Tory govts less neoliberal and labour govts less woke.
Lot of fatuous waffle about theory here, but no idea on what is actually happening in Ilam… No one has mentioned Dr Hamish Something or talked about Sarah Pallet.
He will campaign hard, he is extremely savvy, he was a breath of fresh air on the CCC and intelligent way beyond the Jerry’s of the world. I like their tax stuff and might have voted for them but Te Pati Maori is more important.
He didn’t campaign well last time, he was damn lazy. He even said that old fashioned show leather stuff was obsolete. Had a cocktail party in Fendalton for his launch in a very diverse seat.
I live in Ilam. Raf Manji is well known around here. What Martyn hasn’t told you about is his experience – he’s a two term former Christchurch City Councillor. A social entrepreneur who was involved with the Student Volunteer Army and has done charity work with Amnesty International as a collector – I know this because when I was co-ordinating Amnesty’s annual street appeal, Raf was one of my collectors in northwest Christchurch.
Ok. Lets see what he can do. Otherwise it is a National cakewalk.