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  1. Well, do we expect addicts to growth for growth’s sake to simply suddenly accept their unsustainable addiction to it, and rush into rehab? That happens in the rarest of cases, first they rather try carry on and live in denial, and continue with their addiction, until they hit rock bottom.

    That seems to be the to be expected behaviour of the average New Zealander, certainly those trying to run businesses, those believing in the market as they know it, and most so the case with the many property owning people, who went on another Christmas spending spree fueled by credit they were willingly given in view of the increased property values they can show on the balance sheet.

    This is a more serious development, and the economists are also afraid, they are trying to calm the concerns of investors and the public, even talk up a gain in business confidence for New Zealand, as if this is such an isolated, independent economy, that will not be affected by what goes on internationally.

    China has now ultimately reached its growth potential, that is the real growth potential on the present state of affairs in economic terms, the change to a more consumption based and service based economy is easy to announce from a government office, it will only be happening with major disruptions in parts of the economy.

    As for the oil price, this is a development similar to some what happened before the Great Depression, where oversupply and overcapacity, combined with financial distortions, lead to a vicious downward cycle on markets, so the bottom is not reached yet. Iran wants to start exporting more oil, as sanctions are being lifted, and Saudi Arabia continues producing as they can offer cheap production and also have bills to pay.

    This is a disaster for countries like Russia, but more so for Nigeria and Venezuela, same Lybia and a fair few other petroleum producing nations, including of course Iraq.

    They are running into debt and recession and worse, and stop buying Chinese and other made goods, and that again slows the Chinese economy, and Europe and even the US have also become more dependent on trade with China, they will also suffer.

    Australia will face a debacle, due to the end of the commodities boom, and New Zealand’s economy depends very much on what goes on in China and Australia. We heard yesterday that dairy prices are continuing to drop, and that farmers will face more harsh times. There will be many hitting the wall this year.

    So much for the golden udder miracles and the white gold rush mania of past years, it is over, dear friends, it is over the boom is turning into a bust, also for New Zealand.

    Yet of course, nobody really likes to read the writing on the wall, it is not pleasant news, so keep on distracting and drugging, dreaming of some growth, perhaps in higher real estate prices, now reaching the provinces. The withdrawal though will come, while many others have never had much gain from all that supposed growth, usually benefiting the elite.

    More stuff to read:

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/stocks-markets-loonie-oil-1.3411432

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/china-gdp-slow-growth-doubts-1.3410223

    http://www.afr.com/opinion/columnists/why-chinas-slowing-economy-is-such-a-worry-for-investors-20160119-gm9jdx

    “The real problem is that China’s slowdown coincides with the end of the massive stimulus programs that were embraced by the world’s large central banks in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis.

    China’s response to the financial crisis is also relevant because the huge stimulus program launched in 2008 to support growth is now showing up in severe overcapacity in many industries, which is putting downward pressure on prices, and squeezing corporate profits.”

    “A lower yuan would essentially allow China, the world’s largest exporter and one of the largest importers, to “export” its deflationary pressure to the rest of the world. The prices of China’s exported goods will fall, which will squeeze revenue and profit for producers around the world, leaving them little option but to cut costs even further. For multinationals operating in China producing goods such as automobiles and luxury items, it would represent an even steeper drop in the value of their sales and the profitability of their investments.

    What’s more, there’s no guarantee that a lower currency would stem the heavy outflow of capital from China, which is being driven by a lack of trust in the capacity of policymakers to tackle China’s problems, as well as the lack of profitable investment opportunities.”

    http://www.bbc.com/news/business-35362397

    The “experts” try to limit the fallout by expressing calming words:
    http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/ninetonoon/audio/201786240/brian-gaynor-on-world-market-plunges

    We face the risk of deflation which is what hit Japan for decades, and this may happen on a global scale, and it is more serious a threat than inflation is, which is rather low here too, except for housing costs and a few other costs.

  2. I am not sure whether that was included in my earlier comment, but here is an opinion from the Australian Financial Review:

    “A lower yuan would essentially allow China, the world’s largest exporter and one of the largest importers, to “export” its deflationary pressure to the rest of the world. The prices of China’s exported goods will fall, which will squeeze revenue and profit for producers around the world, leaving them little option but to cut costs even further. For multinationals operating in China producing goods such as automobiles and luxury items, it would represent an even steeper drop in the value of their sales and the profitability of their investments.

    What’s more, there’s no guarantee that a lower currency would stem the heavy outflow of capital from China, which is being driven by a lack of trust in the capacity of policymakers to tackle China’s problems, as well as the lack of profitable investment opportunities.”

    Read more:
    http://www.afr.com/opinion/columnists/why-chinas-slowing-economy-is-such-a-worry-for-investors-20160119-gm9jdx#ixzz3xpCScYHv

    DEFLATION, dear friends, that is a serious worry, very serious, for the whole world!

    1. Yep, and while the government has run out of ideas to address the ever increasing emergency situation on the housing front in Auckland, Bennett has now announced bribes for willing state tenants or those on the waiting list for social housing to accept a change and move to the regions further afield:
      http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/political/294583/state-tenants-may-get-money-to-move

      Last year this desperate announcement:
      http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/74817819/Government-announces-over-500-new-social-housing-properties-for-Auckland

      5oo homes over three years, what a joke.

      So once the stock exchange goes down, the businesses start making losses, and more people will lose jobs and income, prepare for more to sleep rough in the parks and along a creek in New Lynn in Auckland, the “most liveable city in the world”, as we are made to believe by those totally out of touch at the top, who are fast running out of any answers and solutions.

  3. A lot of people are going to lose their jobs. No, I don’t mean CEOs, investors, and other parasites.

    I mean real working class workers. They’re going to do it tough.

    Then ignorant arsehole like Gosman, Andy, etc, will blame increasing number of unemplyed for being “dole bludgers”.

    Nasty.

  4. Nothing happens without a reason, while “we the peasants “look to our benevolent masters for relief to our financial woes (be assured we will be hit the hardest )our masters and their puppets have engineered this “crisis ” for their control and financial benefits

    1. MSM staff and editors have largely had their brains irradiated, there is little left, hence the indifference or lack of concern.

  5. The CORPORATE media dance to their own beat.
    Can’t have the serfs questioning their betters.
    So keep them in the dark.
    Why do you think Kiwi’s don’t have a clue about the real impact of the TPP?

    “Ignorance Is Strength” on Planet Key.

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