Latest Māori Party legal drama-drama thankfully lands as political focus turns to TOP
The latest legal drama inside Te Pāti Māori has ended in court, with expelled MP Mariameno Kapa-Kingi winning a ruling that her suspension breached the party’s own tikanga. But while the judgment resolves one internal dispute, the political spotlight is already shifting elsewhere — toward The Opportunities Party (TOP) and what that means for the electoral maths heading into Election 2026.
Court ruling reinstates Mariameno Kapa-Kingi
Te Pāti Māori: Expelled MP Mariameno Kapa-Kingi back in party after winning court case
Te Pāti Māori MP Mariameno Kapa Kingi who was expelled last year amid party turmoil will be reinstated to the party after winning a court case arguing the expulsion was unfair.
In a just-released decision, Justice Paul Radich said her suspension was unlawful “in the pure sense of that word” and breached “kawa”, the party’s protocols.
In a statement, Te Pāti Māori said it respected the court decision and “we will be moving forward with repatriating of Mariameno Kapa-Kingi back into the pāti”.
NZ Herald
Internal tensions inside Te Pāti Māori remain
Interesting ruling, I think it was always going to be hard to defend the charge that the sacking wasn’t done with Tikanga, although the judgment may have over stepped in terms of directing Parliamentary practice of a political Party, but that’s a technical point that could be relitigated, the fact remains that the Party Leadership doesn’t trust Kapa-Kingi.
The Court ruled against Kapa-Kingi’s attempt to roll John Tamihere as President.
Why TOP changes the political equation
The fortunate reality for Te Pati Māori is that this issue lands at a time when the media focus and attention has shifted to TOP.
The Right have been able to point to the meltdown caused inside Te Pati Māori as a threat to stability, and the only way Labour + Greens = 51% is with Te Pati Māori, but with the most recent polling showing TOP jumping to 4%, Labour+Greens+TOP is far less scary than Labour + Greens + MP.
Part of the reason why the media attention has been so scathing and intense is because Labour have needed Te Pati Māori, but if TOP steps into that role, Te Pati Māori have time to heal and rebuild without the intense and destabilising glare.
If Eru can stop the suicide bombings, Māori Party could generate an MMP overhang, but it will be a far cry from the 7% they were polling at before Eru went rogue.
The Māori electorates heading into Election 2026
Here’s where I think the current Māori Electorates are in terms of the vibe.
Electorate-by-electorate outlook:
- Hauraki-Waikato – The question isn’t will Hana‑Rawhiti Maipi‑Clarke win, the question will be is she running for Te Pati Māori or Labour?
- Ikaroa-Rāwhiti – After all the chaos of the Māori Party meltdown, Cushla Tangaere‑Manuel will win for Labour despite Green Candidate Heather Te Au-Skipworth.
- Tāmaki Makaurau – Oriini has proved to be a far more flakey candidate than many feared and goes into this election far weaker than when she won the by-election. Labour need a super star, David Letele won’t be that (after demanding Minister of Health), but Labour can win if they roll out a superstar candidate.
- Te Tai Hauāuru – Debbie Ngarewa‑Packer had a 6000 margin, she will win again.
- Te Tai Tokerau – Mariameno will win the seat despite and to spite Te Pati Māori. Still a chance for the Green Candidate to sneak through.
- Te Tai Tonga – The question will be can Doc win as an independent? Likely pick up for Labour
- Waiariki – Greens will be leaning into Tania Waikato, but Rawiri will win.
What this means for Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori
Greens have a real chance to pick up a lot more Party vote and possibly win one electorate.
TPM can hold 3-4 seats. Won’t do well in Party vote, could generate an MMP overhang
Labour can hold 1 electorate and pick up maybe 4, will see a reduced Party vote as Greens muscle in.
