WAATEA NEWS COLUMN: Election 2026: How Labour Māori Caucus win the ’26 Election

Every poll this year has told us how close the 2026 election will be and every tactical decision and strategic step will be crucial. How the Labour Māori Caucus fights could be the difference between winning and losing.
The main strategy being requested of the Labour Māori Caucus seems to be hell bent on destroying the Māori Party and winning back every Māori electorate.

I think this an obvious play that misses a far bigger picture.

The first problem with taking back all the Māori electorates is that it removes the possibility that the Māori Party will create an MMP Overhang if their party vote is lower than their electorate wins.

In an election this close, an overhang could be all the difference.

The second issue with simply taking out all the Māori Electorates is that it misses the focus of where the Labour Māori Caucus should be.

Māori who voted for National!

Breaking down the data for Māori voters from the last election paints a very interesting picture.

5% of Māori voters voted ACT, 5% voted NZF and a whopping 23% voted National!

Now.

If you are Māori and voted ACT or NZF, you are probably beyond redemption and recruitment for the Left. The anti-Māori and anti-Treaty agenda both ACT and NZF have embarked upon requires a level of political masochism if you are Māori that will tick ACT and NZF regardless of the pain.

But the 23% who voted National I believe are ripe for coming home to Labour.

Māori who voted for National in the last election did so in the hope their house price might go up 10%, they certainly weren’t expecting to get a race war of policies that demeaned and denigrated Māoridom!

This 23% of Māori voters who voted National are the very ones that the Labour Māori Caucus should be targeting rather than a vicious civil war with the Māori Party in the Māori electorates, because taking from National is a far smarter way to win the election than fighting over voters with the Māori Party.