8 Months until 2023 election – Political Battlefield Analysis Special

The next election is 8 m months away on Saturday, 14 October 2023.

The Right have gone from believing they were sleepwalking to victory to panicking over Luxon.

All National was relying on was people hating Jacinda, now Labour have changed leaders, National have no policy and no target to hit.

Add to this the manner Chippy has competently stepped up during this disaster and the Auckland Flood alongside his Bread and Butter policy bonfire, and National are struggling to woo back ACT voters and hold the middle.

Meanwhile the Greens slide into political irrelevance, the Māori Party strengthens, NZ First threatens and TOP could surprise.

When you consider that in 2020 the polls were overestimating National by an average of 5.8 percentage points and underestimating Labour by 3.7 points, the election is wide open.

The question is does Chippy have the courage to bring real solutions to the table.

Here is the current Election Battlefield 2023 as TDB sees it.

 

LABOUR: 35%+

Bread and Butter Politics does two things, it puts delivery over ideology and because most middle class woke activists are gluten free vegans, they run a mile from Bread and Butter.

So Labour can redesign policy from ideology to delivery while freaking the woke to run away and stop alienating voters.

It’s a win win.

Chippy has thrown all the woke policy on a bonfire and is moving Labour from the cancel culture minefield of social justice towards the solidarity building economic justice.

Lifting minimum wage – This is economic justice.

Dumping TVNZ/RNZ merger – the delivery is more NZ on Air funding for content, the ideology was the merger itself, so the merger gets dumped.

PSA/CTU Gold plated Holiday tax – This was always a bullshit sop to the PSA to give their bureaucrats a 6 month taxpayer holiday. It was never going to fly.

Biofuels mandate – At a time of crippling cost of living crisis, anything increasing fuel costs gets dumped.

Hate Speech – this was always a culture war the Left could never win.

3 waters – will finally be focused on drains rather than an existential race war.

The woke be cray, but their alienating bullshit has made these course corrections necessary.

Labour’s Bread and Butter politics is about delivery of service over ideology.

Labour had become bogged down in believing bureaucratic changes in the  background was a means of delivering outcomes rather than actually raising taxes and paying for more social infrastructure!

Chippy has to understand that 2023 is a debate over State Capacity.

National and ACT want to amputate the State while Labour, Greens and Māori Party want to build State capacity!

The 30 year neoliberal experiment cut the NZ State to the bone and the political project for each National and ACT Government is to strangle off revenue to the State so the State can’t redistribute it. That way citizens don’t become ‘reliant’ on providing subsidy to every day living, because once people get used to having services that work, they demand it politically.

This story about Hospital capacity spells out we don’t just need more drs and more nurses, we need more hospitals!

We need more Nurses, more Drs, more hospitals, more police, more Army, more Teachers, more schools, more corrections officers, better public transport, better prisons, our own pharmaceutical industry, and we can only fund that by taxing the fucking rich!

Left Universalism is the way we bring electoral solidarity to beat National and ACT, alienating woke middle class cancel culture identity politics will only divide the Left and allow the most hard right Government this country has ever seen.

Poor people are not sitting around the kitchen table cancelling people for misusing pronouns, they are sitting around the table trying to work out how they pay the bills.

We must move towards Left Universalism if we have a hope of stopping ACT and National.

Now Chippy has burnt off all the unpopular woke policy, he has to actually deliver on free public transport, free dental, free breakfasts and lunches in schools and more tax from the rich.

The rebuild from the cyclone demands more than the usual.

A Ministry of Works must be back on the agenda!

 

NATIONAL: 33%

Luxon is having a dreadful time.

He gained the leadership after Judith Collins rat fucked Simon Bridges and told her unhinged winged monkeys to block vote for Luxon.

National’s problem is ACT keep stealing their vote and while trying to win those voters back with raw meat policy, Luxon keeps terrifying the middle.

ACT demanded ankle bracelets on 11 year olds, National counter demanded ankle bracelets on 10 year olds.

ACT promise benefits sanctions, National counter promise to boot thousands off welfare.

ACT demand more punitive law and order policy, National counter promise counter productive Military Boot Camps.

This is great for feral fringe hard right voters but it scares the bejesus out of the middle.

Luxon’s u-turns and frailty under the high ball makes him look like a weak leader, and his promise to repeal all environmental legislation to pacify his Groundswell rednecks leaves him with no actual policy to challenge climate change.

His desire to cut 14 000 Government jobs at a time when people desperately need the State is the same deliver Simon Bridges faced with Covid.

The Political Right want to amputate the State, which isn’t a message anyone wants to hear while they are running towards the State to protect them.

National were relying on the toxic animosity towards Jacinda to win 2023 and still haven’t adapted to a new Leader or the new climate change reality.

I think Luxon has stalled and National will sink to the low 30s, and as National fade, right wing Voters will feel their vote will do more over with ACT.

 

ACT: 15%+

The incredibly incendiary speech David Seymour gave to a packed ACT State of the Nation meeting at the beginning of the year signals a rift on the Right unlike any seen in modern NZ Political History.

That ACT, a Party that was .7 in the polls 5 years ago, is now rating 13.5% in the Roy Morgan Poll shows a polarisation of NZ politics we simply haven’t experienced from the Right since Muldoon.

ACT refuse to toe any line with National and their certainty in articulating a negative appraisal of perceived Māori political privilege marks them out as a Party that is actively attacking National for their direct vote share.

It also clearly shows that David will dominate any relationship with Luxon.

This is deeply damaging to National. The polarisation of the debate is so extreme that National have to foam at the mouth in an attempt to win back ACT vote, the problem with that is it scares the bejesus out of the middle.

This makes Luxon look weaker and weaker which allows ACT to grow and it gives the Left the perfect target to paint the relationship out for what it is, an extreme Right wing Government.

The problem is ACTs policy is so off the planet extreme, they have no comprehension what it would actually entail in passing it.

Imagine the following:

National and ACT win the 2023 election.

Because David Seymour is vastly smarter than Luxon, David gets everything ACT wants including axing the Ministry of Māori development, Ministry of Women, Ministry of Youth, Ministry of Ethnic affairs, Ministry of Pacific People, the Human Rights Commission and rewrites the Treaty based on nothing more than a referendum.

A hikoi of quarter of a million incandescent with rage Māori plus their allies descends upon Wellington in furious protest that makes the foreshore and seabed protest look mild.

They angrily start to occupy Parliament Lawns.

A spooked David Seymour and frightened Chris Luxon order the army to shoot.

Which part of that evaluation of ACTs race relations policy won’t happen?

ACT are going to trigger extreme policies that will in turn trigger even more extreme protest and when that gets to Wellington, it will be met with a frightened Right utilising the full muscle of the State.

This is going to get out of hand very quickly, you can not strip the Indigenous people of their political rights and pretend that won’t have an enormously violent backlash.

ACT are such pure eyed acolytes they don’t see their cleansing as something people would fight against, because ACT have no idea of the value of what it is they are burning.

The addiction to cancel culture and deplatforming by the woke has meant instead of debating the issue and winning people over, the Left simply rely on attempting to win the debate by strangling off any speech they disagree with.

David is a 100 times better campaigner than Luxon, the ease with which he shut down conspiracy theorists compared to Luxon highlights this. As the realisation that National are fading becomes apparent, ACT will pick up even more votes.

They are now established as the Right Wing Values Party and represent an existential threat to National ion a highly polarised election.

 

GREENS: 7% (if they are lucky)

The Greens have transitioned from being an Environmental Political Party (Ours, Us) into an Identity Politics Party (Me/Me) with all the alienating middle class smugness that comes with it. The Greens have amputated male voters in favour of diversity uber alles and have built Woke city states inside Wellington Urban Electorates that their fanatical followers can storm.

In election 2020, ACT got 7.6% and Greens got 7.9%

Last week the Greens are 8% while ACT have soared to 12%!

The Greens are barely above where they polled 3 fucking years ago!

ACT, who were .7% 5 years ago (until the woke started a free speech war we couldn’t win), are now 12%!

This as global warming and the need for radical environmental adaptation is more powerful and present than ever before!

How have the Greens managed to gain no support in 3 years?

Could it be the alienating woke middle class dogma cancel culture purges?

Of course it could be!

We still don’t understand the impact of social media in political polarisation and the woke who have been on a drunk with power social media lynching rampage since 2016’s MeToo movement have used ‘inclusion’ to exclude generating pure temple politics rather than Broadchurch solidarity.

The Woke’s influence however is waning because they have caused so much toxic discord on the Left.

Remember how the Auckland chapter of Climate Strike for Students cancelled themselves because they argued they were racist?

That level of Critical Race Theory nuttiness alongside Critical Gender Theory malice is a recipe for factionalism not cooperation.

This is seeing the middle class woke being pushed back, Chippy moving away from Social Justice towards Economic Justice shows he understands delivery is more important than ideology and that woke cancel culture is election poison.

It’s called ‘Bread and Butter’ Politics because most middle class woke are gluten free vegans who will run away from any actual bread or butter.

While the woke’s power is waning across the country, it is only solidifying in Wellington.

Tory Whanau’s surprise win, woke City Councillors and the machinations of the Wellington Central Electorate for an uber woke green candidate all makes Wellington a City State of Wokeness as the Identity over all movement becomes radioactive to the rest of the country

The power the Woke have in the Greens is spelt out by the candidacy of Stephanie Rodgers. Stephanie is one of the wokest woke wokesters on woke world. Her social media timeline will be a feeding frenzy of attention from National and ACT social media teams because all they need is “This is what a Green Party Candidate thinks about you” memes with her tweets as the evidence.

That someone as toxically woke as Rodgers can be a candidate shows the Woke’s dominance in the Greens and in Wellington.

The Greens are refocusing on electorates over Party vote because their brand has become so socially toxic they can only win in urban areas where their diminishing woke acolytes live.

If the Greens can’t gain more than their 2020 election result, there needs to be a serious reflection on how they and their members have actively alienated everyone who isn’t a mummy blogger.

Watching James rage against a problem he is part of is performance art for the stupid.

After the Auckland flooding and Cyclone Gabrielle, how pathetic does being Carbon Neutral by 2050 look now?

The Greens will be lucky to get more than their 2020 result.

 

Māori Party – 4 electorate MMP overhang 

The more feral the anti-Māori rhetoric gets, the more votes the Māori Party gain. They have a real shot at 4 electorates this year and their staunch policy like GST off food and military neutrality have a lot that left wing Pakeha will party vote for. They have a real chance of being the Kingmaker can could generate an MMP overhang making out more difficult for ACT and National to get a majority. Watch the way JT and David Seymour squared off on The Working Group last week to see there is no love lost between the two.

With Adrian Rurawhe under pressure to accept the Speaker’s expectation to stand down from their electorate,  Te Tai Hauāuru opens as a real possible gain for the Maori Party. This on top of their incredible party vote which hit 5% in the Roy Morgan Poll suggests a massive political change is occurring within Māoridom.

Tamaki Makaurau must be considered a real possibility as well.

Part of this surge in support is demographics, Māori are a decade younger than Pakeha, part of it is the reconnection with civics the vaccination drive provided and part is the grotesque racism spewed out over co-governance and 3 Waters.

Māori represent the highest proportion of non voters, and the race baiting rhetoric is dragging those non voters over to being engaged, something we haven’t seen in the past.

If the Māori Party can hold up their Party vote they will become the Queen maker and the relationship between Māori Party President JT and Willie Jackson will become the most important one politically.

 

NZF 5% – grim reaper vs MMP threshold

The question isn’t whether Winston can get NZF over 5%, the question is he well enough to campaign. His health and age mean this isn’t the Winston Peters of old, he is the Winston Peters who is old.

Wayne Brown hasn’t helped with branding for old people in leadership roles.

All the sub 5% antivaxers won’t get their own political parties into power, but they will get representation if they vote for Winnie. He’ll play the same Maaaaaaaarees getting too much shtick that ACT are playing but that song will seem disconnected to the reality of climate events and economics.

NZ First is an old tune that might not have a leader to whistle it.

 

TOP – Ilam + list Coat tail

The Opportunities Party leader Raf Manji has a chance of winning Ilam now Gerry Brownlee has stood down. Sarah Pallett won the seat in 2020 during Labour’s red wave, but Manji was competitive against Gerry back in 2017. If Manji can steal the seat off Pallett and against a weak National newbie, TOP could enter Parliament AND bring in 2 MPs off the Party list.

TOP are talking about Housing and the political tax impasses that prevent Housing from being built, if they can convince the public that he can win in Ilam, then a vote for TOP isn’t wasted. If National were smart they would consider talking to TOP and offering them an Epsom deal in Ilam.

 

Sub 5% Feral Antivax God Squad vote – NOTHING!

The good news is that Brian’s current umbrella of Sue Grey’s antivaxxers and his Destiny Church QGod squad aren’t nearly enough to get over 5%. However if they added Matt King’s vanity project and the anti abortion New Conservatives, that cavalcade of political circus freaks could get over 5%.

Thankfully they are all toxic narcissists who couldn’t work together if their lives depended upon it, if they do though, don’t underestimate how many feral Qanon antivaxers who have been brainwashed by social media hate algorithms there really are out there.

 

 

SPECIALS:

I think you will have so many people voting who don’t normally vote that the specials will be huge on the day, this, along with the unpredictable overseas vote this election could throw any election night result out the window when the specials and overseas votes are counted.

 

OVERSEAS VOTE:

The MIQ over subscription by tens of thousands hints at the incandescent rage many of our diaspora felt trying to get back into their legal home country during the Covid lockout.

There is no way their torture won’t have political ramifications.

Last election Greens did poorly in their usually high overseas support vote because Ardern’s global stardom eclipsed the Greens, this election however the frustration is directly at Jacinda’s policies so I think the Greens will take that vote back and then some.

Our diaspora are furious and if the Green Party rhetoric is too moderate for their anger, ACTs throw-open-the-borders-and-let-the-freed-market-decide-death policy is for you.

ACTs policy has the whiff of judgmental vengeance to it that is the perfect cocktail of payback people locked out of their own home want to inflict on those refusing to open the door.

My guess is that our diaspora are far more motivated to vote in 2023 than we have ever considered and their anger at being locked out will be sharp.

 

POLITICAL DOMESTIC TERRORISM:

I fear the combination of intense political polarisation, a steep economic depression and the explosion of disinformation via social media hate algorithms could generate political violence in the 2023 election.

The immediate threat of political violence comes from the far right. The QAnon movement in NZ is disconnected from this dimension of reality, they believe in Sovereign Citizen Sherifs who are ’empowered’ to hang enemies of free people. They are fucking lunatics who are capable and philosophically compelled to commit an act of political violence.  Add to them far right white supremacist bad faith actors and Alt-Right extremists and you have radicalisation combining with fear grifters to generate a febrile landscape of existential fears that can only be combated by justified political violence.

Out of this cauldron of self loathing and projected cultural hate is the possibility of a lone wolf actor or small cell group committing an attack on a Politician.

DEMOGRAPHICS & HIGHER PARTICIPATION RATE:

This will be the first election in NZ history where Millennials and Gen Xers are a larger numerical voting block than Boomers, because lockdown impacted so many, I think people who normally sit voting out will have a real passion to make their voice heard, even if that voice is an anguished scream of fear and nonsense.

POLITICAL POLARISATION:

Because the Political spectrum is so hung and the polarisation so extreme, nothing is being collectively done to solve the myriad of problems we are facing post-Covid from crime, to cost of living crisis, to climate change, to inequality and poverty. No big ideas and no real solutions to the challenges we are collectively facing as New Zealanders.

Our focus is on hating the person who offended us on social media. I just don’t think we comprehend what a distortion of reality Social Media generates and the new subjective rage it manufactures.

We will end up with a result both sides will refuse to accept if they lose.

 

PREDICTION: 

The extraordinary rebuilding and adaptation costs NZ has to undertake in the wake of Cyclone Gabrielle must not be borne by the poor, it must be borne by this who have profited most from the pollution that has caused this dystopia.

Two of the largest global warming emitters in NZ are Z Energy and Fonterra. Last year Z Energy made a $269million profit and Fonterra made $583million in profit – shouldn’t they get a special tax to help rebuild from the climate change damage these companies produce?

What about Forestry and the slash they produce?

ASB made $822 million in profit alongside other Australian Banks making Billions. Shouldn’t those who have speculated pay for the poverty and inequality their profit margins generate?

Shouldn’t people earning over $250 000 per year pay a new top tax rate?

Shouldn’t we look at a financial transaction tax, sugar tax and wealth tax while reducing GST and taking not off food?

For a very long time, climate change has been some theoretical future threat.

The scientists have screamed at us.

The polluters have lied to us.

The politicians have failed to lead us.

Despite our denial and refusal to acknowledge what was coming, the speed of the changing climate means the climate warming future is upon us now whether we like it or not.

For too long the climate change debate has had little to do with the overwhelming science and more to do with the culture war.

Those who enjoy the lifestyle generating the pollution that is killing us don’t want to hear they are part of the problem and they don’t want to believe environmentalists they despise are right.

We are beyond the culture wars now because the reality of the extremes that were warned are upon us and denial can no longer blanket the truth.

Vast investment into adaptation is the only game in town and a vast upgrade of our reliance infrastructure alongside an enormous upgrade of State capacity is the only political solution to the future we now face.

This investment into increased State Capacity must coincide with the resilience infrastructure upgrade  alongside the adaptation capital required.

We must look at more sustainable degrowth concepts because there is no more business as usual.

These weather events will simply get more intense.

The warnings are over, this is the age of consequences now.

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