7 Months until 2023 election – Political Battlefield Analysis Special

The next election is 7 months away on Saturday, 14 October 2023.

National can’t believe their luck with Stuart Nash and are astounded that the Greens would start a culture war with white cis males.

Labour are raising benefits, Superannuation, minimum wage and promising vast new infrastructure upgrades. They are astounded that the Greens would start a culture war with white cis males.

ACT are promising the most extreme hard right political policy platform since Roger Douglas and they are astounded that the Greens would start a culture war with white cis males.

The Māori Party are the Kingmakers in the latest Roy Morgan Poll and even they can’t believe the Greens are starting a culture war with white cis males. The Māori Party be like, “Girl. Same. But come on, shut up’.

NZ First were asleep, but when Winston was woken up, he was confused by the words, “Green Party”, “Culture War” and “White cis”, which he took to be an infected pimple.

When you consider that in 2020 the polls were overestimating National by an average of 5.8 percentage points and underestimating Labour by 3.7 points, the election is wide open.

The question is does Chippy have the courage to bring real economic justice solutions to the table or will the election descend into a social justice culture war that only benefits National and ACT?

Here is the current Election Battlefield 2023 as TDB sees it.

LABOUR: 35% on election night

Bread and Butter Politics does two things, it puts delivery over ideology and because most middle class woke activists are gluten free vegans, they run a mile from Bread and Butter.

Unfortunately despite lifting benefits, Superannuation, minimum wage and promising to build a bloody second harbour crossing, bloody Stuart Nash is the gift that keeps giving.

The Nashy (Suns out Guns out) is not a grand chess master of the Dark Art of Grift, he’s thick as shit and always big notes to people he wants to impress.

That’s what he was doing on ZB when he bewilderingly boasted about interfering in the Police to challenge a judicial ruling, and that’s what he was doing when leaking Cabinet information.

The crazy shit he has said to the Forestry Industry will come out in the Slash Inquiry and THAT is when Chippy should dump him from the Party altogether.

Guyon Espiner’s exposure of Labour’s acquiescence to the corporate wishes of their consultant mates is galling. Watching Woke Wellington Warlords like the chinless wonder from down under, Big Davey Cormack, Clint Smith and Neale Jones all twist in the wind however is glorious.

This is all hurting Labour and because they don’t have any real policy solutions yet, they should start feeling nervous.

Labour had become bogged down in believing bureaucratic changes in the  background was a means of delivering outcomes rather than actually raising taxes and paying for more social infrastructure!

Now Chippy has burnt off all the unpopular woke policy, he has to actually deliver on free public transport, free dental, free breakfasts and lunches in schools and more tax from the rich.

The rebuild from the cyclone demands more than the usual, A Ministry of Green Works must be back on the agenda!

Chippy denouncing the violence at the Posie Parker protest was the only political win over the last month and Labour will be hoping that holds the middle while picking up disgusted Green Party members who can’t believe Marama started a woke culture war with white cis males.

AAAP reports 120 000 kids are still living in homes who experience material hardship and CPAG once again point out that while they stats are damning, the truth is actually far worse…

“The trouble is, of the almost 9,000 households surveyed in this data, there was no inclusion of our most vulnerable families. Families living in motels and other emergency accommodation, as well as cars and other forms of homelessness were not included,” Prof Emeritus Asher said.

“The real picture is likely to be a lot more grim as anecdotal evidence suggests the numbers of families in these dire situations is on the increase.”

“We also know poverty is a driver of preventable hospitalisations, which is another reason to urgently address child poverty, for the sake of our overburdened health system.”

…the problem is that corporate consultants get in the ear of Governments and convince them to target welfare rather than provide left wing universalism because to fund left wing universalism you need to tax the rich.

If all Chippy is offering is ‘let them eat pie’, how different is that from National’s ‘Let them eat cake’?

Currently you could buy Labour a large red van, call them Pat and they still couldn’t fucking deliver!

NATIONAL: 33% on election night

Luxon having Covid was probably the best thing for him because it meant he wasn’t fucking up every 3 seconds.

His anger towards The Nashy was righteous, his education policy struck a nerve with parents who are seeing the kids get dumber and National finally announced a policy about electricity that was smart and not dumb!

I know.

I’m as surprised as you!

National are finally getting some traction BECAUSE they are not getting involved in culture wars while the Left collapse into a self inflicted culture war!

The all important swing voter of those 50+ white tertiary educated women will have seen the violence at the Posie Parker event and as old school feminists themselves, won’t have seen ‘Pure Trans Joy’, they will have seen a women getting beaten up.

That is going to rush to National.

If National play a very straight bat, dump the more reactionary crazy shit, they might con enough voters to keep them in the low 30s which makes National politically relevant.

Thankfully National are shit and will fumble this when it matters most. Never undervalue National’s capacity for self harm and stupidity.

ACT: 17%

That ACT, a Party which was .7 in the polls 5 years ago (until the woke started their unwindable war on Free Speech), is now rating 13% in the latest Roy Morgan Poll and shows a polarisation of NZ politics we simply haven’t experienced from the Right since Muldoon.

ACT are the masters at using culture war friction and as the economy turns, as the Greens launch their war on white cis males, as ‘Pure Trans Joy’ looks a bit rough round the edges, the ACT electorate are going wild!

The problem is ACTs policy is so off the planet extreme, they have no comprehension what it would actually entail in passing it.

Imagine the following:

National and ACT win the 2023 election.

Because David Seymour is vastly smarter than Luxon, David gets everything ACT wants including axing the Ministry of Māori development, Ministry of Women, Ministry of Youth, Ministry of Ethnic affairs, Ministry of Pacific People, the Human Rights Commission and rewrites the Treaty based on nothing more than a referendum.

A hikoi of quarter of a million incandescent with rage Māori plus their allies descends upon Wellington in furious protest that makes the foreshore and seabed protest look mild.

They angrily start to occupy Parliament Lawns.

A spooked David Seymour and frightened Chris Luxon order the army to shoot.

Which part of that evaluation of ACTs race relations policy won’t happen?

ACT are going to trigger extreme policies that will in turn trigger even more extreme protest and when that gets to Wellington, it will be met with a frightened Right utilising the full muscle of the State.

This is going to get out of hand very quickly, you can not strip the Indigenous people of their political rights and pretend that won’t have an enormously violent backlash.

ACT are such pure eyed acolytes they don’t see their cleansing as something people would fight against, because ACT have no idea of the value of what it is they are burning.

The addiction to cancel culture and deplatforming by the woke has meant instead of debating the issue and winning people over, the Left simply rely on attempting to win the debate by strangling off any speech they disagree with.

David is a 100 times better campaigner than Luxon, the ease with which he shut down conspiracy theorists compared to Luxon highlights this. As the realisation that National are fading becomes apparent, ACT will pick up even more votes.

They are now established as the Right Wing Values Party and represent an existential threat to National in a highly polarised election.

They can not believe their luck with Marama attacking white cis males and the mob violence at the Posie Parker protest.

GREENS: 6% (+ 2 electorates) on election night

I’m not sure the Green Party and woke activist war on white cis males is the vote winner 7 months out from an election they seem to think it is.

It’s interesting the outrage towards signs at Groundswell vs the no outrage at some of the exceptionally violent posters and signs at the Posie Parker protest – the double standards are remarkable and I fear the voting public won’t see ‘Pure Trans Joy’ they will see the Thugs Veto and an attack on one of the foundations of democracy, Free Speech.

I’m a class Leftist. I believe the true demarcation of power in a liberal progressive democracy is between the 1% richest + their 9% enablers vs the 90% rest of us!

That’s why ACT and National are gaining millions in election donations from the richest New Zealanders!

While identity politics is an important personal journey of how you individually interact with power, if all you have is a tribal allegiance to your skin colour, genitalia or identity, then what use are you to the movement?

Identity Politics over class leads to an ever decreasing circle of exclusion and expulsion as the activists push for pure temple politics rather than Broadchurch solitary.

The greatest danger of identity Politics is that white cis men start seeing themselves as victims and appropriate the identity of victimhood.

Tell white cis males they are the problem long enough and they become the problem.

We have major issues with damaged masculinity in the West and adding fuel to that fire as the Greens have done is going to cause a terrible backlash.

Yes, Marama was stunned after being struck by a motorcycle handle 3 hours earlier as she was posing for selfies standing up against Brian Tamaki’s deeply repressed leather daddy motorbike club, but she claimed the statement as a Minister of the Crown and most now believe she believes that white cis males are the reason for violence in the world.

If I’m wrong, ACT will plummet, the Greens will soar and you can all laugh at me as we cruise to a 3rd election win.

If I’m right however, we are fucked.

The Greens are to political strategy what Today FM is to Talkback radio. The Greens are so incompetent they couldn’t get laid in a monkey brothel wearing banana costumes.

Māori Party – 5% + 3 electorates

The more feral the anti-Māori rhetoric gets, the more votes the Māori Party gain. They have a real shot at 4 electorates this year and their staunch policy like GST off food and military neutrality have a lot that left wing Pakeha will party vote for. They have a real chance of being the Kingmaker can could generate an MMP overhang making out more difficult for ACT and National to get a majority. Watch the way JT and David Seymour squared off on The Working Group last week to see there is no love lost between the two.

Part of this surge in support is demographics, Māori are a decade younger than Pakeha, part of it is the reconnection with civics the vaccination drive provided and part is the grotesque racism spewed out over co-governance and 3 Waters.

Māori represent the highest proportion of non voters, and the race baiting rhetoric is dragging those non voters over to being engaged, something we haven’t seen in the past.

If the Māori Party can hold up their Party vote they will become the Queen maker and the relationship between Māori Party President JT and Willie Jackson will become the most important one politically.

NZF 4% 

Winston’s State of the Nation  was Aotearoa New Zealand (without the Aotearoa).

It was a good speech to the Party faithful in Howick, well attended. He can still draw a crowd.

He was funny, he was mischievous, he ranted against Māori elites, demanded an end to Government Departments using Māori names and made some jokes about identity.

Classic Winnie.

Problem was that it just seems very tired now.

If you really hate Māori aspiration, you are voting ACT because you know David Seymour means it when he says he will disband Māori Government Agencies.

Winston is selling a watered down Redneck brew. Is that enough in such polarised times with a far larger youth voting demographic?

I’m not sure to be honest.

What we actually needed from Winston was a back to basic focus on infrastructure in the provinces and a demand to rebuild using some big new ideas.

He should have been arguing for a new Ministry of Works.

He should have been arguing for a stronger foreign policy to counter Chinese and American influence.

He should have been talking about a Bank tax and making sure NZ Corporations who are benefiting are returning more back into the community.

We needed the fearless Winston who championed classic Think Big Muldoonism.

Instead we get Government Departments not using Māori names?????

It was so underwhelming and I am simply not sure if his petty polices are the solutions desperate Kiwis are going to be taking to the Ballot Box in October.

There is an electorate that is seeking populist solutions, Winston provided them with very little reason to earn their vote.

TOP – Ilam + list Coat tail

The Opportunities Party leader Raf Manji has a chance of winning Ilam now Gerry Brownlee has stood down. Sarah Pallett won the seat in 2020 during Labour’s red wave, but Manji was competitive against Gerry back in 2017. If Manji can steal the seat off Pallett and against a weak National newbie, TOP could enter Parliament AND bring in 2 MPs off the Party list.

TOP are talking about Housing and the political tax impasses that prevent Housing from being built, if they can convince the public that he can win in Ilam, then a vote for TOP isn’t wasted. If Labour were smart they would consider talking to TOP and offering them an Epsom deal in Ilam.

Sub 5% Feral Antivax God Squad vote – NOTHING!

The good news is that Brian’s current umbrella of Sue Grey’s antivaxxers and his Destiny Church QGod squad aren’t nearly enough to get over 5%. However if they added Matt King’s vanity project and the anti abortion New Conservatives, that cavalcade of political circus freaks could get over 5%.

Thankfully they are all toxic narcissists who couldn’t work together if their lives depended upon it, if they do though, don’t underestimate how many feral Qanon antivaxers who have been brainwashed by social media hate algorithms there really are out there.

SPECIALS:

I think you will have so many people voting who don’t normally vote that the specials will be huge on the day, this, along with the unpredictable overseas vote this election could throw any election night result out the window when the specials and overseas votes are counted.

OVERSEAS VOTE:

The MIQ over subscription by tens of thousands hints at the incandescent rage many of our diaspora felt trying to get back into their legal home country during the Covid lockout.

There is no way their torture won’t have political ramifications.

Last election Greens did poorly in their usually high overseas support vote because Ardern’s global stardom eclipsed the Greens, this election however the frustration is directly at Jacinda’s policies so I think the Greens will take that vote back and then some.

Our diaspora are furious and if the Green Party rhetoric is too moderate for their anger, ACTs throw-open-the-borders-and-let-the-freed-market-decide-death policy is for you.

ACTs policy has the whiff of judgmental vengeance to it that is the perfect cocktail of payback people locked out of their own home want to inflict on those refusing to open the door.

My guess is that our diaspora are far more motivated to vote in 2023 than we have ever considered and their anger at being locked out will be sharp.

POLITICAL DOMESTIC TERRORISM:

I fear the combination of intense political polarisation, a steep economic depression and the explosion of disinformation via social media hate algorithms could generate political violence in the 2023 election.

I thought the immediate threat of political violence comes from the far right. The QAnon movement in NZ is disconnected from this dimension of reality, they believe in Sovereign Citizen Sherifs who are ’empowered’ to hang enemies of free people. They are fucking lunatics who are capable and philosophically compelled to commit an act of political violence.  Add to them far right white supremacist bad faith actors and Alt-Right extremists and you have radicalisation combining with fear grifters to generate a febrile landscape of existential fears that can only be combated by justified political violence.

However, it was the woke Left at the Posie Parker event who actually started the political violence and are now justifying political street violence.

Out of this cauldron of self loathing and projected cultural hate is the possibility of a lone wolf actor or small cell group committing an attack on a Politician.

DEMOGRAPHICS & HIGHER PARTICIPATION RATE:

This will be the first election in NZ history where Millennials and Gen Xers are a larger numerical voting block than Boomers, because lockdown impacted so many, I think people who normally sit voting out will have a real passion to make their voice heard, even if that voice is an anguished scream of fear and nonsense.

POLITICAL POLARISATION:

Because the Political spectrum is so hung and the polarisation so extreme, nothing is being collectively done to solve the myriad of problems we are facing post-Covid from crime, to cost of living crisis, to climate change, to inequality and poverty. No big ideas and no real solutions to the challenges we are collectively facing as New Zealanders.

Our focus is on hating the person who offended us on social media. I just don’t think we comprehend what a distortion of reality Social Media generates and the new subjective rage it manufactures.

We will end up with a result both sides will refuse to accept if they lose.

PREDICTION: 

The extraordinary rebuilding and adaptation costs NZ has to undertake in the wake of Cyclone Gabrielle must not be borne by the poor, it must be borne by this who have profited most from the pollution that has caused this dystopia.

Two of the largest global warming emitters in NZ are Z Energy and Fonterra. Last year Z Energy made a $269million profit and Fonterra made $583million in profit – shouldn’t they get a special tax to help rebuild from the climate change damage these companies produce?

What about Forestry and the slash they produce?

ASB made $822 million in profit alongside other Australian Banks making Billions. Shouldn’t those who have speculated pay for the poverty and inequality their profit margins generate?

Shouldn’t people earning over $250 000 per year pay a new top tax rate?

Shouldn’t we look at a financial transaction tax, sugar tax and wealth tax while reducing GST and taking not off food?

For a very long time, climate change has been some theoretical future threat.

The scientists have screamed at us.

The polluters have lied to us.

The politicians have failed to lead us.

Despite our denial and refusal to acknowledge what was coming, the speed of the changing climate means the climate warming future is upon us now whether we like it or not.

For too long the climate change debate has had little to do with the overwhelming science and more to do with the culture war.

Those who enjoy the lifestyle generating the pollution that is killing us don’t want to hear they are part of the problem and they don’t want to believe environmentalists they despise are right.

We are beyond the culture wars now because the reality of the extremes that were warned are upon us and denial can no longer blanket the truth.

Vast investment into adaptation is the only game in town and a vast upgrade of our reliance infrastructure alongside an enormous upgrade of State capacity is the only political solution to the future we now face.

This investment into increased State Capacity must coincide with the resilience infrastructure upgrade  alongside the adaptation capital required.

We must look at more sustainable degrowth concepts because there is no more business as usual.

These weather events will simply get more intense.

The warnings are over, this is the age of consequences now.

Chippy has to understand that 2023 is a debate over State Capacity.

National and ACT want to amputate the State while Labour, Greens and Māori Party want to build State capacity!

The 30 year neoliberal experiment cut the NZ State to the bone and the political project for each National and ACT Government is to strangle off revenue to the State so the State can’t redistribute it. That way citizens don’t become ‘reliant’ on providing subsidy to every day living, because once people get used to having services that work, they demand it politically.

This story about Hospital capacity spells out we don’t just need more drs and more nurses, we need more hospitals!

We need more Nurses, more Drs, more hospitals, more police, more Army, more Teachers, more schools, more corrections officers, better public transport, better prisons, our own pharmaceutical industry, and we can only fund that by taxing the fucking rich!

Left Universalism is the way we bring electoral solidarity to beat National and ACT, alienating woke middle class cancel culture identity politics will only divide the Left and allow the most hard right Government this country has ever seen.

Poor people are not sitting around the kitchen table cancelling people for misusing pronouns, they are sitting around the table trying to work out how they pay the bills.

We must move towards Left Universalism if we have a hope of stopping ACT and National.

Chippy needs boldness if he wants to go beyond Jacinda’s rhetoric.

He needs free lunch and breakfast in every school, he needs public transport, he needs 30% stake in Supermarkets, he needs to implement all the welfare reforms, he needs to implement CPAGs Working For Family Tax Credit, he needs to take GST off food while putting a sugar tax on, he needs the Green’s wealth tax and the Māori Party’s financial transaction tax but most of all he needs courage or else  all his bread and butter policies will never be tasted by the poorest children.

Unfortunately the Greens have declared a woke war on White Cis Males and the Left can’t win a culture war.

All ACT and National need to do is allow the Identity Politics activist base all the rope they need to hang the political left.

When people are anxious economically, culture wars become super charged.

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