40 Days until the NZ Election – where are we and what happens next?
So we are now 40 days away until the 2020 NZ Election due on October 17th. The Media have leaped upon weaknesses at the border and held them up as evidence of crimes against humanity, Death Cult Capitalists have accused Jacinda of every violation against Milton Friedman and the ever screaming frothing fringe of social media scream she’s creating a secret socialist police state.
Sadly for the gotcha media, Death Cult Capitalist fantasists and Conspiracy Theorists, the proof is in the pudding and as global cases spike and the pandemic continues to rampage around the planet, the tyranny of our distance has become the greatest moat on earth and Kiwi’s are grateful to Jacinda, not angry with her.
Our stats compared to anywhere else rob those criticisms of any validity.
To be clear, Labour have NO idea what they are doing next, they are barely keeping their head above water because of the constant crisis pressure created by the pandemic and aren’t sure what policy to roll out, but none of that really matters because a huge majority of the electorate just love Jacinda and that gratitude trumps policy.
As a politics geek this shames me, as someone who wants to keep ACT, National and NZ First out of power, I’m banking the win thanks.
DATES:
- Sunday 13 September: Writ Day – the Governor General formally directs NZ to hold the Election
- 19 September, 9.30am: Newshub Nation presents Battlegrounds – a special programme dedicated to some of the most hotly-contested electorates in the country, featuring a debate between the key Northland Candidates, on location in the Bay of Islands.
- Tuesday 22 September – The first Leaders’ Debate takes place between Jacinda Ardern and Judith Collins at 7-8.30pm on TVNZ 1. Moderated by John Campbell.
- Monday 28 September – The Young Voters Debate in association with Auckland University will feature candidates from a range of parties and will be live streamed via 1news.co.nz and 1 NEWS social channels. Moderated by Jack Tame.
- Wednesday 30 September: Overseas voting starts
- 30 September, 7.30pm: Newshub Decision 2020 Leaders Debate with Jacinda Ardern and Judith Collins, hosted by Patrick Gower and post-debate analysis by Tova O’Brien with guest panellists. Live on Three, ThreeNow, Newshub’s Facebook page and YouTube account. Simulcast on Magic Talk.
- Saturday 3 October: Advance voting starts
- 3 October, 9.30am: Newshub Nation presents Powerbrokers, its multi-party leaders’ debate featuring the Green Party’s Marama Davidson , the ACT Party’s David Seymour, and John Tamihere from The Maori Party.
- 7 October, 8.30pm: Newshub Decision 2020 The Cannabis Question, moderated by Patrick Gower. Live on Three, ThreeNow, Newshub’s Facebook page and YouTube account.
- Thursday 8 October – The Multi-Party Debate will include NZ First, The Green Party and Act at 7-8pm on TVNZ 1. Moderated by Jessica Mutch McKay.
- 14 October, 8.30pm: Newshub Decision 2020 The Euthanasia Question, moderated by Patrick Gower. Live on Three, ThreeNow, Newshub’s Facebook page and YouTube account.
- Thursday 15 October – The final Leaders’ Debate airs at 7-8pm on TVNZ 1. Featuring Jacinda Ardern and Judith Collins, this will be the last broadcast debate before New Zealanders head to voting booths on Election Day. Moderated by Jessica Mutch McKay.
- Friday 16 October: Advance voting ends
- Friday 16 October midnight: The regulated period ends. All election and referendum advertising must end. Signs must be taken down by midnight.
- Saturday 17 October: Election day. Voters can vote from 9am to 7pm.
- 17th October 7pm – The Greatest NZ Election Results Show on Earth: Magic Talk Radio with Sean Plunket, Damien Grant and Martyn Bradbury
- Friday 30 October: Preliminary results for the referendums
- Friday 6 November: Official results for the general election and referendums
LABOUR: Prediction 50%+
Labour supporters can differentiate between the Government trying and the underfunded State failing. That provides Labour with enormous protection from their own supporter base. The gleeful way Ministers let James Shaw hang himself with his Jedi Academy was a reminder to Labour’s State Sector Loyalists they know where their bread is buttered.
To the 200 000 45+women who have walked from National to Labour, nothing Judith is doing is wooing them back, this new tectonic shift will ultimately shape the victory for Labour.
Chippy has become the new David Parker and the two of them should be sitting down talking about expanding the capacity of the State.
Jacinda remains their most powerful communicator but the Covid restrictions rob her most of the enthusiasm vibe she could be surfing with large rallies and events that Judith simply couldn’t muster.
Because they are preferring to travel by car than plane for this campaign, lots of smaller localised places will get visited.
The debates will play a far larger role this election than they have before because the truncated campaign will give voters less chances to see their politicians.
NATIONAL: Prediction less than 30%
Would you like a cucumber sandwich?
National were swallowed up by the news cycle last week. Their 1000 days of love policy was interesting but no one connects Judith Collins with warmth and development, they associate her with pestilence, plague, war and death so National’s branding makes their kindness look like a glinting threat more than actual milk of human kindness.
Internal Polling keeps telling National that voters who are to the right of Caligula love Judith while everyone to the left of Caligula recoil in terror.
Unfortunately for National, there are far more people to the left of Caligula than to his right.
Judith’s chances to gain any cut through relies on a knock out performance in the debates because constantly finding another border loophole to try and paint incompetence isn’t working if the virus is still being suppressed domestically.
NZ FIRST: Under 5% – No electorate
His Q+A train-wreck reminded everyone of the cavalcade of issues that dog NZ First now, gambling industry bailouts, seafood industry donations, Serious Fraud Office investigations – it just goes on an on and on.
He looks tired, belligerent and out of touch. Sure, he’s always looked like that, but his sparkling smile and Devil may come charms seemed to gloss over all those realities. This is not the Winston of yore, this a Dinosaur who hasn’t realised that thing in the sky is an asteroid yet.
Winston’s current theme of criticising Labour’s handling of the pandemic will anger his elderly supporters who will be thankful to Jacinda for keeping them safe and will consider his revisionist history as unbecoming.
The ONLY chance is Shane Jones beating that boiled ham, Matt King in Northland, but that’s a steep climb because Jones’ verbiage is far too cosmopolitan for Northland voters who are better known for their fear of eclipses and electricity than love of provincial Keynesianism.
GREENS: 4% + 1 electorate
The Magical Private Harry Potter Environmental Jedi Academy the Greens bewilderingly gave $12m to is a gift that just keeps giving.
Watching the Trolls Troll and Wellington Twitteratti Alumni, David Cormack pimp for Shaw on Newshub Nation over the weekend is my favourite moment of 2020 so far.
For a Party dominated by woke micro aggression policing mummy blogger ally activists, it was only a matter of time before the Party turned on itself and Shaw’s glorious blunder is that Red Wedding Green Party moment.
It would be wrong for Shaw to get all the blame if the Greens come under 5%, the middle class woke activists had alienated the Greens into a threshold zone long before Shaw screwed this up.
Chloe Swarbrick winning in Auckland Central is our only hope now.
ACT: 5% + 1 electorate
Guns. Guns. Guns. More Guns. Guns.
Now ACT have been taken over by the NZ NRA, David Seymour is hostage to their crazy demands for guns and ACT’s Deputy is promoting beneficiaries take a cut in welfare in solidarity with rich people losing money in the pandemic. The total collapse in National vote is boosting ACT in an uncritical way. Angry right wing voters are giving ACT a protest vote with no idea just how crazy ACT is.
MAORI PARTY: Prediction 2 MPs
John Tamihere’s decision to put himself down the Party list has resonated with Māori Party supporters and he is running hard in Tāmaki Makaurau. With the wasted vote so high this election, if the Māori Party gain an electorate they would almost certainly pull in an MP off the Party list.
TOP: Prediction 2%
Will pick up disgruntled National protest voters who see Judith’s leadership as a suicide mission.
New Conservative Party: Prediction less than 2%
Hateful of abortion, solo mothers, gays, solo mothers, cannabis and solo mothers, the New Conservatives love guns, patriarchy and more guns. Paranoid and frightened of any idea post the renaissance, the New Conservatives would represent a great leap backwards for New Zealand. Their half truths and disingenuous lies make them the political version of Whaleoil, but with less charm. They will gloriously rob the Right by wasting vote.
Vision NZ: Prediction less than 1%
Hates all the same things as the New Conservatives but hates Muslims most. Libraries and clitorises would be banned if Vision NZ came to power.
One Party: Prediction less than 1%
Under ONE Party, Jesus becomes the Constitutional Head of State and God has to personally sign off on legislation. The NZDF would be given spirit spears to fight Satan and anyone caught working on Sunday is put to death. Gay Conversion treatment is mandatory for anyone who watches Glee. Electricity and any singing that isn’t praising Jesus is also banned.
Advance NZ, NZPP, NZ People’s Party & Reset Party
The sudden ratcheting up of emergency powers and curtailing of our civil liberties has been frightening and this pandemic is scary. It is a complex thing with many real time adaptations that can feel intimidating and trigger anger. But to manipulate those legitimate emotions into a narrative that insinuates the virus is a bioengineered weapon spread by 5G to bring about a shadowy one world government that only QAnon can fight is fucking insane!
Billy TK and JLR are a political swindle preying on the ignorance and fear of those who only source their news from Facebook. Never before has such political desperation mixed with pure insanity.
For these people books really are fuel for burning witches at the stake with.
The Integrity Party: Prediction less than nothing.
It’s that ugly blue green colour you have when environmentalism gets hit by capitalism. Has the kind of Māori buzz words you get when Wellington Bureaucrats are opening a sustainable pet crematorium.
Tea Party: Prediction less than 2%
The People’s Republic of China have decided their investment into National requires a new tail to wag it into an MMP Government.
REFERENDUM:
Euthanasia and Cannabis referendum will be a lot closer than they are now.
CONCLUSIONS:
With the enrolment rule changes that allow for enrolment on the day, prisoner voting alongside booths in Marae, I think we will see a large turnout.
I think overseas votes will go overwhelmingly to Labour and not the Greens.
I think with the huge number of fringe parties we will see more wasted vote than ever before.
I think the Government will be a Labour Majority.
I think National will be lucky to gain 30%.
I think Judith will increasingly become more desperate and vicious.
NZ First won’t be politically relevant.
The only hope for the Greens is Auckland central.
ACT will suffer rapid growth pains from candidates they haven’t vetted properly.
Labour only need 47% on election night to get scaled up for a majority AFTER specials get counted.
Greens must hit 4.5% on election night to successfully get scaled up over the 5% threshold AFTER specials get counted..
NZ First must hit 5.5% on election night to guarantee they won’t get scaled down AFTER specials get counted.
Because of the high amount of wasted vote, the Māori Party should be able to gain an extra seat from their list with as little as 1% if they win an electorate seat.
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Also bear in mind that a week is a long time in politics and polls can get it wrong. Witness Brexit, Donald Trump, ScoMo and BoJo.
No one really knows but…
Labour can at least be held up to say things did not get worse in most key areas, most that is! And this also means no nasty shit like worse employment laws and other targetted spite as was the way with National. But that is not exactly a resounding recommendation either.
More money for teaching helped. More money for nursing too and health. Mental health funding well up but this will take a decade to be noticed. Better tenancy laws to some extent and heating subsidies. More police. More social housing being built and in the pipeline. All of this is good. But…
Housing is an epic failure, aside from social (the intensity of which may end up ghettos). Runaway investors who are bordering on feral are not what Labour was supposed to deliver. They have not touched this area. They are so scared to go near it. Is this because there are multi-property owners in Labour? The very predictable result in a so-called healthy economy is that housing affordability worsens, private debt grows and the day of reckoning gets nearer.
Climate change. All words, no substance. The results are becoming vivid.
Broadcasting. Nothing but a Ministers career blown away.
Child poverty. Come on Jacinda!
Transport. I cannot recall any government totally failing in one area as much as this one has. Led by the former failed housing minister and present-day fool, Twyford, they have bombed on every policy promise, every single one. I think the closest we got was the promise of a meagre passenger rail service between Auckland and Hamilton and even then its stalled. It raises questions of credibility and ability to translate promises into action and then reality. And in respect of Twyford, the PM’s judgement. How did this idiot go up in the rankings? We cannot be free of this moron who will go on failing his government and the people. So many questions, chiefly, how does Phil Twyford justify his salary? Even justify being paid a minimum wage? Actually anything?
Fair to say were it not for Covid19 there would be a reasonable chance of a Simon Bridges led National government waiting in the wings because Labour simply did not deliver their big promises. I realise the public service infrastructure was poor and there is a lot of years of neglect but I think Labour badly need to do some soul searching because we trusted them to deliver and by and large they didn’t. I mean in many areas they didn’t even start. Fuck up again with non-delivery and they may as well write the party off.
As for the Greens. Auckland Central should stay, ironically, National, thanks to Labour/Green vote splitting, where I think Labour would win were it not for that. I think the Greens are history. And they have no one but them-woke-selves and their inept/bordering on sabotage prone co-leadership to blame. I cannot help if that happens, James Shaw will wryly grin and think, job done.
NZ First. Goneburger. Winston has come across as disloyal and an arse. And there are now too many deals involving them and taxpayer money that stink. But in a way, Shane Jones exiting is no bad thing.
TOP, less than 1%
Maori Party, no. JT is a liability.
ACT. That is scary, probably over 5% thanks to bleed off from National.
National. A train wreck of a party that when it’s not shitting on everyone else with its dirty politics, it’s knifing each other with gay abandon. For now, the damage is papered over, just, however, its led by one of the most unpleasant and repulsive persons I have seen who oozes hatred and contempt from her very inner being. Very, very hard to like except if you are fully subscribed to being a self-serving prick who thrives on others misery, enjoys spite, envy, deviousness, Newstalk ZB and Sadomasochism, all rolled into one. I suspect they will benefit from the implosion of the Greens and NZ First.
The others, who cares?
What happens next.
1. The failure of corporations to generate profits and the surge in share prices [on the back of central bank printing money to facilitate share buy-backs] collide in an epic battle which initially results in the surge in share prices stalling, and then results in the biggest collapse in history, making 1929, 1987, 1997, 2001, and 2008 look like a walk in the park.
2. The overheated planet -a consequence of mass burning of fossil fuels- causes unprecedented weather-related catastrophes around the world (like the searing heat in California and widespread flooding Sudan right now). The damage caused by these human-induced catastrophes results in complete failure of human systems in the regions affected.
3. The debilitating effects of Covid-19 on workforces and extreme weather events result in declining food availability throughout the world, resulting in widespread hunger that causes breakdown of authority in numerous locations.
4. Out-of-control ‘second wave’ (third wave?} Covid-19 demolishes large sectors of stumbling economies -particularly tourism, cafe-lifestyle, restaurant, cinema, concert, corporatised sport etc. This results in closure of business and hundreds of millions of additional unemployed worldwide.
5. High unemployment rates and general impoverishment result in rents not being paid, tax revenues falling and budgets being blown to smithereens.
6. Misled and bewildered people turn to saviour-figures who promise to restore life to how it was before everything began to unravel, even though those saviour-figures haven’t got a clue what to do and are simply opportunists gaming the opportunity.
7. Whilst still in power, governments that kowtow to banks and corporations and provide opportunists of opportunists (in other words all of them) continue make everything that matters worse.
8. Despite all their bizarre and dysfunctional systems failing abysmally, economists persist with their mantra that we need GDP growth and that ‘kick-starting’ the economy is the only way forward.
9. Increasing numbers of people look behind the curtain (Wizard of Oz) and see that there is just a rather pathetic man who has actually no power at all, and it was all just a made up story.
10. The Arctic sea ice reaches an unprecedented [in the absence of storm systems] low late September, and then begins its annual refreeze.
11. Photosynthesis in the Northern Hemisphere fails to keep pace with industrial emissions, and the brief period of decline in atmospheric CO2 [due to Northern Hemisphere photosynthesis reverses and heads for a new record high in May 2021, with all the dire consequences commensurate with the unprecedented level and unprecedented rate of increase. .
12. Political candidates and the mainstream media ignore most (if not all) of the above, and pretend the collapsing system has a long-term future.
Indeed, and I think TOP is perhaps the only party not succumbing to 12.
I grew up watching NZ elections being lost rather than won. I’m convinced Andrew Little believed that would the case in 2017 which is exactly why he hung around as Labour leader for 18 months longer than he should have. Ironically, his polling actually went down when John Key surprisingly stood down. Very telling.
In 2020, National obviously believe their best and only hope of becoming the next Government and with the considerable assistance of our alleged media, was to undermine the strong support the Government has over it’s pandemic handling and superb Ardern leadership. It’s an incredibly toxic, divisive and negative campaign National are running. They are very deliberately for their own gain, attempting to destroy all important confidence during a health emergency. At any other time in our history this would be seen as devastating treason. They offer absolutely far king nothing positive. It’s very easy to spend the money of others in your personal quest to become Government but glaringly obvious questions arrive on scene every time Collins the most untrustworthy politician in NZ makes a BS promise. Does she know that the diabolical under funding in almost every area by her previous Government created many of the infrastructure issues we are now facing? and 2, if National actually gave a flying fark about anything other than the smoke and mirrors farcical “rock star economy”, why didn’t they address even one of the issues she is now spouting off about addressing?
Labour will “win” the upcoming election. The only relevant question there is, will they be able to Govern alone.
Untrustworthy National and their totally untrustworthy despicable leader will continue on running a negative undermining toxic and divisive campaign. They will be wiped out on election day but will have damaged the confidence of kiwis and the desperate Collins will do everything and anything to destroy the credibility and validity of Labours impressive victory. The big questions there are as follows. How many National Party MP’s will be sent packing? Answer. Many. How long will it take for Christopher Luxon to take over from Collins.? Answer. Less than 48 hours. How long after this will it take for Collins to announce her retirement from politics to allegedly spend more time with her reprehensible partner? Answer. Less than 14 days after election day.
Will The Greens scrape by with 5%? It’s so touch and go I can’t answer that. I hope they do but damage has been done.
Will the Winston First Party survive? Absolutely NOT. They have zero hope of passing 1.5%. We all know the reasons for this well deserved outcome.
Will the ACT Party do as well as polling suggests. Probably but I hope not for a list of reasons.
The other also ran’s will be a wipe out and can finally crawl back into their holes where they belong.
I agree with most of that but would like to add that hang-around Little is untrustworthy (as detailed previously on TDB) and that Jacinda is surrounded by other no-hopers…the minister for broadcasting being a prime example of a-sit-and-do-nothing seat-warmer.
I am a bit confused about Jacinda. She is an acolyte of neoliberalism, that is clear (spent time in Tony B Liar’s company and worked i n one of his departments according to Wiki).
But is she actually an outright liar? (like Tony B Liar)
The reason I ask is that on Breakfast (in the background as I do my Internet research) I heard her say that she had raised basic benefits. Yet I have been reading on TDB how she hasn’t raised basic benefits, and that there is a two-tier system, with long-term unemployed still languishing on unimproved allowances.
As Jacindafan, I’m sure you will be able to give me the answer to that one.
PS I still regard Jacinda as the best of a very, very bad lot.
Problem for National is that they can’t believe that Labour could be better managers than they are. That’s why they have to have a crack at the Covid response – apart from which they have nothing else.
I’m not a pedant, MB (yeah right!), but “the proof is in the pudding” means sweet FA.
What you – and thousands of others who make the same mistake – actually mean is
“the proof of the pudding is in the eating”. Just saying.
Nice rant, as usual, countryboy. And all of it spot on except:
‘We should remember that our politicians are merely the administrators of OUR wishes’
I put it to you that politicians are merely the administrators of the wishes of banks and corporations and opportunists.
I vividly remember Jonathan Young handing me a National Party ‘fact sheet’, when I raised concerns about the so-called Food Safety regulations that National were proposing to tamper with to reduce the opportunity for small traders to grow and sell produce; the ‘fact sheet’, although printed with a National heading and logo, was written in American English, with American spelling and American use of words -clearly obtained straight from the desk of Monsanto or some other giant American corporation, keen to stamp out competition and get everyone hooked into their toxic systems.
Day off, bring it on, let!s scrap the parasite Queen and her birthday, let!s replace it with Matariki
And once again there is no mention of Social Credit. Nor will there be, over the next six weeks unless someone develops a sense of shame. What is more, all those who want a Labour clean sweep clearly dont know what they are anticipating. If Labour were an authentic left wing party such an outcome would be wonderful – it would have the room to do some great things. But Labour isn’t remotely Left wing – its barely a shade more left than National. What it will attempt will be too little too late. National will have a quiet time having nothing to oppose. I cant see anything here to be cheering about.
If people thing labours deputy is bad what about nationals deputy? I see the mess Gerry has made of the Chch earthquake recovery is coming home to roost and its looking like its going to cost the NZ tax payers hundreds of millions of dollars. This is a bloody expensive mess and exactly why we can’t have this lot running our country