“When the Prime Minister announced he would secure a free trade agreement (FTA) with India during the term of this government he scored another own goal. India, with whom New Zealand had spent many previous years in futile negotiations for a FTA, knew it could simply dictate the terms to a government desperate for a political trophy”, according to Auckland University Professor Emeritus of law Jane Kelsey, who closely follows India’s trade negotiations.
“Today’s announcement that a worthwhile deal has been sealed in just eight months and a handful of negotiating rounds, needs to be taken with a sack of salt”,
Kelsey notes that the government’s announcement comes with no means of verification.
“There is no public text and very little information has been released throughout the short negotiation. So, there is no way to independently assess the government’s claims. Nor do we know that India will actually see agreement this through to ratification and implementation.”
Given New Zealand’s relative insignificance, India’s Ministers and negotiators will have sought precedents they can press on countries of far greater significance, such as securing guaranteed access for its migrant workforce, while avoiding concessions that would set a bad precedent and create political problems, such as granting market access concessions for New Zealand’s dairy products that would antagonise its tens of millions of politically-active dairy farmers.
In parallel, India been more been focused on other international priorities, including FTAs with the European Union, United Kingdom (UK) and Canada, and its pivotal role in the deeply troubled World Trade Organization.
The minimal outcomes of those negotiations show put promises of tangible gains for New Zealand into perspective.
The UK and India, the world’s fifth and sixth largest economies, concluded a FTA in July 2025 after three and a half years and 15 rounds of negotiations. The UK’s own impact assessment predicts a derisory increase to its gross GDP of 0.13%, or £4.8 billion “in the long run”, with 0.06% or £45.1 billion for India.[1]
Professor Kelsey called for evidence-based public debate and engagement before any further negotiations are launched that sink scarce public resources into what have become little more than political notches on the government’s belt.
Re Luxon’s ‘awesome trohpy’ with India. Sorry, until I see evidence I don’t for one minute believe anything that drips out of his lying mouth. He has told us so much BS these past two years it is difficult to sort the wheat from the chaff. Sorry, can’t see him ever changing. He takes the credit for everything his MP’s do well, which isn’t much, puffs up his chest, puts that cheesy half-witted leer on his face and lets his mouth run away with him. Nothing much of substance ever comes out of it! Let’s wait and see what eventuates and whether it is of benefit to NZ. More than likely yet another boring distraction! Why do we even bother to take notice?
Looks like we may get a reduction on tariffs some time in the next 10 years .On the other hand we will get an influx of low skilled workers to be exploited by the corporates .Our own kiwi workers will continue to leave as these low skilled low pay people flood the country bringing another 10 hangerons with them .
I suspect the low-skilled workers will be exploited by the Indian corporates or the “upper class” Indians running businesses here anyway.
The Caste system still alive in India and exported to New Zealand. Anyone wonder why Modi is quite happy to export the lowest of his people to western countries so we are forced to look after them.
LOOKS LIKE HIGHER PRICES FOR KIWIS INTO THE DISTANT FUTURE .nOTHING TO REDUCE THE COST OF LIVING HERE .Food prices and rates wont drop and we will be importing fuel made from Russian oil so will be supporting the Russian invasion of Ukraine and later on Europe .
I don’t want to seem scare-mongering but I have numerous doubts as to the credibility of this ‘agreement’.
There is likely to be many hidden draw-backs to it and mostly it will NOT be in NZs favour.
I believe India has a problem with Corruption. It could be easy there to Bribe an official and some in India may think they can carry on the ‘habit’ here in NZ. But then corruption has already arrived on our shores and we have seen it in effect eg this government.
Lets say hypothetically a criminal in India seizes the offer to come to NZ. He or she bribes an official for the documentation required to get into NZ. Any security checks as to background will not be available or has miraculously disappeared. In fact with enough of a bribe the person’s past will be wiped clean.
In regards to Luxon but he has probably rushed through this agreement for the purpose of Vanity and Ego. He may well ‘advertise’ to all and sundry eg the NZ voters; that thanks to HIM and HIS EFFORTS ALONE he has managed to get a ‘free trade deal’ with India.
We can only wait and see what is in the ‘fine print’ of this deal and as I have said it will not be in the favour of NZ. Already the deal has left our the Dairy Farmers and so it looks like they have been sold down the river or rather thrown under the bus by Attention Seeking and Lying Luxon.
I’m starting to come to belief that to protect our government departments and institutions from corruption, that we, as a nation, need to only hire NZ born citizens for government department roles. And we really need to have a proper grown up discussion about immigration.
If you look at that den of iniquity that is MSN news, people are already commenting that the free trade agreement will allow more Indian immigration into NZ. Which they don’t like. And there is one loan Indian – I guess, because on the Internet nobody knows you’re a dog as the saying goes – saying that soon Indians will own New Zealand.
The actual text of the agreement should be published so people could make informed decisions rather than gross speculation.
Now is Winstons time to grow some balls and send Luxon packing .If he votes against this rubbish agreement then Luxon is toast .But true to form he will vote in favor then will make a big speech saying he will repeal it after the next election .Does he think he is immortal ?he may well be dead before that time .He needs to step up now and scuttle this here and now .
With MMP, we need Winston, along with Labour, to scuttle the proposed trade deal. Your guess is as good as mine regarding what Labour will do, if the deal is toxic enough Chippy might have enough of a backbone to reject it although I would not guarantee it.
Winston has promised to scupper this. His reasoning is that he has always put NZ First. Let’s see if he is true to his word. If history is anything to go by, he won’t, it has always been Winston First, just look at the Greyhound industry. His direct involvement and ownership in the thoroughbred industry is a conflict of interest given the amount of injuries and deaths to not only the horse but to the trainers and jockeys, yet he’s happy to keep that industry alive.
Luxon to the govenor general ,please can I have my knight hood because I got a trade deal even though he had no direct part to play in any negotiation .
You can tell it’s a shit deal, why else have a low key announcement preceded by rumours put out by the mainstream media late on the Monday before Christmas.
Quickly followed up by the tame economists and producer/manufacturing groups giving muted applause.
As Jane says we need to see the full text before we can really comment.
It’s almost in a par with the Epstein disclosures. Full of innuendo but no pictures.
Yes uncle ,they were almost too embarised to make the anouncement so they made while the rest of NZ were doing other stuff .
Is this a the start of a new genre? Politography? Doesn’t sound right – almost forms the word polite and is anything butt.
This govt. is noted for its secrecy, inadequate preparation and poor consultation. If this trade deal was really advantageous for us, they’d be shouting the details all from the roof tops.
The lack of detail and excessive self-congratulatory delivery suggest it stinks and it’s just Luxon pompously singing his own praises as usual.
From what the likes of Professor Kelsey say, he doesn’t even appear to know what the process is.
As usual he’s gone off half CoC-ed.
Why does a trade agreement include an immigration clause? That’s not a usual part of FTA’s… It has the feel of desperation to getting it across the line.
Fabulous deal for all New Zealanders, well done to Prime Minister Luxon and his Ministers.
This FTA with India is not ideal in itself, economically speaking, but it is obviously driven by broader geopolitical objectives and aligns with a US-backed effort to diversify trade away from China and to weaken China’s strategic position in the Indo-Pacific.
You make an interesting point.
This is a terrible deal for NZ youth. You know it’s a bad deal when the media in India are praising it.
What NZ media seem to be totally missing is that this deal is allowing UNCAPPED, yes uncapped numbers of Indian students, and they are allowed to work 20 hours a week, (legally). Uncapped numbers from a nation of 1.4 Billion, what could possibly go wrong, considering we already have rising unemployment and rediculously high rents! There is basically no NZ media mentioning this yet it is big news in India.
From the Economic Times India
On education, New Zealand has signed an Annex on Student Mobility and Post-Study Work Visas for the first time with any country. The agreement removes numerical caps on Indian students and allows them to work for up to 20 hours a week during their studies.
Post-study work rights have been expanded to help students gain global experience. Indian students completing STEM bachelor’s and master’s degrees will be eligible for post-study work visas of up to three years, while doctoral scholars can receive post-study work visas of up to four years.
The way FTA’s go if you do uncapped students with one large population country, better expect it to be demanded by others.
Good deal for National and Acts landlord voters, and yet another source of cheap exploitable labour for business. Good deal for average young NZ?