“When the Prime Minister announced he would secure a free trade agreement (FTA) with India during the term of this government he scored another own goal. India, with whom New Zealand had spent many previous years in futile negotiations for a FTA, knew it could simply dictate the terms to a government desperate for a political trophy”, according to Auckland University Professor Emeritus of law Jane Kelsey, who closely follows India’s trade negotiations.
“Today’s announcement that a worthwhile deal has been sealed in just eight months and a handful of negotiating rounds, needs to be taken with a sack of salt”,
Kelsey notes that the government’s announcement comes with no means of verification.
“There is no public text and very little information has been released throughout the short negotiation. So, there is no way to independently assess the government’s claims. Nor do we know that India will actually see agreement this through to ratification and implementation.”
Given New Zealand’s relative insignificance, India’s Ministers and negotiators will have sought precedents they can press on countries of far greater significance, such as securing guaranteed access for its migrant workforce, while avoiding concessions that would set a bad precedent and create political problems, such as granting market access concessions for New Zealand’s dairy products that would antagonise its tens of millions of politically-active dairy farmers.
In parallel, India been more been focused on other international priorities, including FTAs with the European Union, United Kingdom (UK) and Canada, and its pivotal role in the deeply troubled World Trade Organization.
The minimal outcomes of those negotiations show put promises of tangible gains for New Zealand into perspective.
The UK and India, the world’s fifth and sixth largest economies, concluded a FTA in July 2025 after three and a half years and 15 rounds of negotiations. The UK’s own impact assessment predicts a derisory increase to its gross GDP of 0.13%, or £4.8 billion “in the long run”, with 0.06% or £45.1 billion for India.[1]
Professor Kelsey called for evidence-based public debate and engagement before any further negotiations are launched that sink scarce public resources into what have become little more than political notches on the government’s belt.
Re Luxon’s ‘awesome trohpy’ with India. Sorry, until I see evidence I don’t for one minute believe anything that drips out of his lying mouth. He has told us so much BS these past two years it is difficult to sort the wheat from the chaff. Sorry, can’t see him ever changing. He takes the credit for everything his MP’s do well, which isn’t much, puffs up his chest, puts that cheesy half-witted leer on his face and lets his mouth run away with him. Nothing much of substance ever comes out of it! Let’s wait and see what eventuates and whether it is of benefit to NZ. More than likely yet another boring distraction! Why do we even bother to take notice?
Looks like we may get a reduction on tariffs some time in the next 10 years .On the other hand we will get an influx of low skilled workers to be exploited by the corporates .Our own kiwi workers will continue to leave as these low skilled low pay people flood the country bringing another 10 hangerons with them .
LOOKS LIKE HIGHER PRICES FOR KIWIS INTO THE DISTANT FUTURE .nOTHING TO REDUCE THE COST OF LIVING HERE .Food prices and rates wont drop and we will be importing fuel made from Russian oil so will be supporting the Russian invasion of Ukraine and later on Europe .