How Tamakai Makarau by-election result could weaken or strengthen Chippy as Winston eyes up Labour

By
Martyn Bradbury
-
22
886

In just a few days, Doc Ferris has managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

The incredible victory of the Tamaki Makaurau by-election has managed to be eclipsed by Doc’s weird sectarian view of race relations in NZ.

His position is not even ‘Māori First’, it’s ‘Māori Only’.

You know shit juts got real when the High Priestess of Woke Identity Politics, Tina Ngata, is attacking your sectarianism…

Anti-racism group condemns Tākuta Ferris’ comments, meets with Te Pāti Māori

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Lead advisor Tina Ngata told RNZ the working group had now met with Te Pāti Māori and that the party had been “very open” to its feedback.

Te Pāti Māori’s leadership has gone to ground after Ferris’ latest outburst and is understood to still be working through how to respond to its MP and what to say to its supporters.

…when Tina Ngata is criticising you for pure temple politics, it’s all over Rover.

Doc’s comments reek of the intellectual certainty middle class woke identitarians were espousing last decade

It’s pure temple woke dogma over Broadchurch class solidarity – an alienating culture war issue that has been undermining the Left since 2016.

I call Doc’s late night argument a ‘3 bong philosophy’ in that it only makes sense after 3 bongs.

His late night argument is that the offence caused by his initial post…

…is misplaced because the English language is a colonised force that restricts indigenous rights and you shouldn’t be hating on him when it’s the construct of the language that is problematic.

Don’t hate the player, hate the dictionary?

Allow me to break down his argument.

His argument is that he’s driving a car and hits your dog but you shouldn’t get upset at him about hitting your dog because he didn’t design the car.

Cool story bro.

Doc’s sectarianism however is popular amongst Younger Māori who are incandescent with rage over this Government’s intensely racist agenda, one hate fuelling the next.

The real danger of Doc’s commentary is that he has opened the door for Don Brash, Mike Hosking, David Seymour, Winston Peters, Mike Hosking, Sean Plunket  etc etc etc to paint te Party Māori as sectarian AND incapable of forming a Government with Labour.

Into this madness Chris Hipkins must venture and Matthew Hooton is scathing…

Labour’s Tāmaki Makaurau byelection debacle demands ruling out Te Pāti Māori – Matthew Hooton

This time, Henare was smashed by TPM’s Oriini Kaipara by two votes to one. But that doesn’t do justice to the magnitude of Labour’s defeat.

The real revelation is that Labour and the unions’ much-vaunted voting machine could turn out fewer than a third of the voters it did two years ago.

This in an electorate that includes South Auckland, which Labour must mobilise to win any general election, and West Auckland, whose swing voters so often decide them.

Talk of Henare challenging Hipkins for the leadership has proven absurd and the now twice-failed candidate can’t expect Labour to take him seriously again.

The credibility of campaign manager Shanan Halbert and Labour’s Māori caucus boss Willie Jackson have also taken a hit.

…te Parti Māofri have spent an enormous amount of time and energy building an online community that is ‘relationhipional’ with Māori rather than mere ‘interaction’. Because 70% of Māori are under the age of 40, this online strategy has become a goldmine in a a way that a more traditional campaign misses.

This demographic change has been harnessed by te Parti Māori far better than Labour and it was apparent on the night of the result.

One argument is that Labour lean into this new dynamic and work with the Māori Party on a unified voting strategy for the Māori electorates that unlocks the true power of MMP by generating an overhang that the Political Right couldn’t challenge for 3 terms, however Doc’s commentary and ability to hand political ammunition to the right undermines that possibility significantly.

NZF wanted to use Stuart Nash at their conference as a clear signal they intended to take Labour votes in the next election, but Nash’s insane definition of a woman on a right wing hate site has significantly damaged that attempt.

I mean when you have to stand down from the Taxpayers’ Union for sexism, that really is an achievement.

Chippy can’t cut a deal with NZF and Doc is making any deal with the Māori Party impossible, this leads to the Left not using any of the MMP dynamics that could assure us a victory in the 2026 election.

Doc’s 3 bong philosophy opens Chippy to come down righteously on his sectarianism and win back voters while ostracising te Parti Māori.

It’s so counter productive.

The Left will continue to squabble amongst themselves and the 1% backing National, ACT and NZF will laugh all the way to the ballot box.

If this is the most anti-Māori, anti-Treaty, anti-beneficiary, anti-renter, anti-worker, anti-disabled, anti-environment Government we have seen, then why the fuck can’t the Left work its shit out, put the egos aside and actually work together on a strategy to get them out?

 

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22 COMMENTS

  2. Three things needed to boot the CoC Govt in 2026.…
    • Get out the vote and enrol campaign to combat the voter suppression
    • Unity (as much as can be won) between NZ Labour,
    Greens and TPM
    • NZ Labour to announce wealth tax, denationalisation of power generation and supply etc. new leader if Hipkins will not do it

    The age and digital/reo literacy of young Māori had an effect in the by-election, and the General Election is the first where high turnout boomers do not have numerical superiority. Can the new gen voters be mobilised in numbers?

    Mr Ferris has a screw loose on his issue, the multi ethnic Labour supporters were trying to help elect a MĀORI candidate in a Māori only seat! Doh. Co leader Debbie has gone out of her way to encourage “tangata Tiriti” non Māori supporters for TPM and issues, dickhead behaviour like Takuta’s is of no assistance.

  3. Tamahere’s comments on TBG suggested he’s comfortable not being in govt until more young maori reach voting age in 29 or 32.

    Meanwhile the right will import more voters to negate his strategy.

  4. Are these other ethnicities coming to AO/NZ really support Maori? Maori have experience others Polynesian groups coming here especially in Auckland and turning on Maori with physical assaults, cultural superiority etc… and these traits still exit today. It’s as if they sided with pakeha values and beliefs and turned on Maori for their own convenience. Takuta Ferris, is saying the quite part out loud and the political right are taking advantage claiming he’s a racist referring to Maori in general who aren’t in a powerful position to effect legislative and social change but have to play the long and tiresome game of taking it on the chin for the betterment of NZ peaceful existence.

  5. Ferris is right; he has nothing to apologise for. It doesn’t sit well to see non Maori campaigning in a by-election for a Maori seat. They are doing so not to benefit Maori, but to try and prevent TPM gaining another seat at Labour’s expense. Ferris is perfectly entitled to have an opinion on that state of affairs, and there is nothing racist about his expressing it.

    • Yup. As a TPM member, I would avoid campaigning for them in a Maori seat myself. Fortunately, that isn’t necessary- the specter of the neoliberal rats of the former Labour party stealing a seat is long gone.

    • Ferris has numerous things to apologise for;

      1) wading into a highly charged topic with a social media hot take. Even if it was true he had a nuanced critique to share (that claims is classic arse-covering IMHO), that’s not the way to do it.

      2) sounding like a crypto-fascist. While it may or may not be fair that Māori nationalists have to be unfailingly progressive to avoid being accused of this, that’s the game he’s chosen to play by becoming a TPM candidate.

      3) Breaking caucus unity. He’s tried to justify this, by implying that it’s only the TPM leadership telling him to pull his wooly head in. I guess the rest of the party are going to need to correct this, especially those in the electorate he represents.

      4) handing the right ammunition, which can and will be fired not only at him, but at the whole party.

      5) doing serious damage to the country’s chances of getting the CoC off the government benches in 2026. Just when things were heading in a hopeful direction.

      The saddest thing is, he could have just let it go. Maybe write a think piece addressing whatever his issue is in a more nuanced way, *after* the dust settled.

      By doubling down, he’s creating a situation where TPM will have no choice but to distance themselves from him. Probably replace him as their candidate in 2026. To what purpose?

      • “4) handing the right ammunition, which can and will be fired not only at him, but at the whole party.”
        Oh? Will this allow ACT to win in a Maori seat?

        Oh, that’s right, it won’t. And it will only impact us, when dirty neoliberal coward pansies like Hipkins attack Ferris.

  6. None of this would have happened if the nonentity Hipkins hadn’t chosen to attack Maori and try and steal a Maori seat from Maori.

  7. Look a coalition does not have to agree on everything we see it in the lot (CoC) we have in now but the party with the most voters should have more weight purely because they have more constituents. If TPM want to sit in opposition that is their choice but I for one will not vote for a party that chooses this option. I can see why Ferris said what he said and at least he is being honest unlike many others. We do have foreigners here that are racist, and anti-Māori unfortunately that is life.

  9. Labour needs to campaign hard to be a majority Government. It can’t rely on the Greens or TPM to form a stable Government. It’s held a majority once before, it can do it again.

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