Last week, European leaders continued their efforts to generate support for Ukraine. Europe’s ‘coalition of the willing’ met in Paris on 5 September. A meeting brushed off by Putin but that may signal significant change, President Trump demonstrating a stronger position regarding Russia this week and threatening sanctions.
Russia continues its bombing campaign against Ukraine and is mustering its strength for an offensive in the east near Pokrovsk. Putin is also actively managing Russian information operations at home and abroad to achieve two objectives:
- Split the US-European partnership.
- Demonstrate that Russia is still a major power and will inevitably win the war.
Meanwhile, on the frontline ‘General Winter’ is advancing. In the next month, or so, autumnal rains will turn much of Ukraine into muddy bogs slowing down movement and freezing operations. Then the cold will come and soldiers on both sides will be battling not just their opponents but also the weather.
Europe winning the diplomatic battle
Europe’s leaders seem to be successfully ‘managing’ Trump, with a mixture of flattery and by leading strongly they are manoeuvring him to achieve three strategic objectives:
- Ensuring that dialogue with Trump continues, so Europe retain access to US equipment and the NATO alliance is not compromised.
- Support Ukraine with sufficient equipment, training and intelligence that it can defeat Russia, forcing Putin to negotiate.
- Establish condition to secure Ukraine after a ceasefire.
On 5 September a group of European leaders met in Paris to discuss the war. This meeting was a key diplomatic engagement. At one level it was an opportunity to engage in precise planning about supporting Ukraine but it was also a powerful piece of theatre, an information operation to influence Trump.
The meeting produced some tangible results; 26 nations agreeing they were willing to commit military force to secure peace in Ukraine after a ceasefire, and there were commitments to new economic sanctions. A detailed plan will be presented to the US president later this week.
However, the key elements of political theatre were the tough talk before the meeting and that the Europeans are demonstrating leadership. European leaders carefully positioning themselves at the ‘centre’ of discussions to end the war, but also leaving the door open for Trump to engage. France’s President Macron confirming that after the meeting the outcomes were discussed with Trump.
Europe’s strategy could be described as ‘diplomacy by FOMO (fear of missing out).’ Trump follows mainstream media closely, and has a keen desire to be seen as a strong peace-making leader. Therefore, when the media spotlight slips away from him and starts to highlight progress that is being made by Europe’s leaders, he gets nervous and wants to be involved. Trump’s FOMO and impulsiveness force him to react, and while history tells us there is a risk he could become petulant, angry or anti-Europe, leaders like Finnish President Stubb, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, President Macron and UK Prime Minister, Sir Kier Starmer are mitigating this risk by building clos relationships with him. So instead of reacting with petulance and anger to the European initiative, Trump seems to be drifting towards the European position.
On 8 September, CNN analysis summed up Trump’s historic position regarding Putin and Russia as follows, “US President Donald Trump’s belief he could somehow, through force of personality, convince his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, that he wanted a peace deal was, at best, overly generous to himself and the Kremlin head. It was fed by the strategic hot take that Moscow is an ally-in-waiting for the United States against China, rather than – increasingly – an energy-producing vassal to Beijing.” An analysis that rings true, but Trump’s position seems to be changing as he is gently managed by European diplomacy.
Comments to Finnish media by Stubb provide an insight into the power of personal relationships and about the way Europe’s diplomatic offensive is working. Speaking to Finnish media immediately after the meeting, Stubb made sure to build Trump up by reporting pre-conference discussions with the US president stating that “Trump’s approach was very much that we must act together on sanctions policy and now look for ways in particular to halt Russia’s war machine by economic means.” Stubb’s careful words, gently opening the door for Trump to stay connected with his European allies.
After discussing last week’s meeting with key European leaders, Trump started this week with increasingly strong rhetoric threatening Russia with powerful economic sanctions. Statements that were reinforced by the US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant, giving the threat more credibility.
Russia plays into Europe’s hands
Some commentators claim that Putin is a strategic genius, and there is no doubt that he is clever and tough but his response to Europe’s strategy seems misjudged. This may be because Putin is arrogant and therefore dismissive of Europe; or that he is managing an information operation designed to project the image of Russia as an equal of the US.
Whatever the motivation, Putin’s recent activity is notable and tends to indicate the latter. Last week, Putin travelled to China where he attended the nation’s parade celebrating the 80th anniversary of the end of World War Two, and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation’s annual meeting. Both widely reported events providing Putin with an opportunity to demonstrate he is backed by China, and that by proxy Russia is a significant world power.
However, Putin’s discussions at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation indicate Russia has bigger concerns. For instance, Reuters reported that “Russia has been pushing for settlement mechanisms which avoid the U.S. dollar and the euro, after Western sanctions on payment systems and Chinese banks disrupted Russian trade following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.” Activity that indicates that Russia’s exclusion from European and US banking and financial systems is hurting the nation’s economy.
Putin’s visit to China was probably intended to scare Trump, to demonstrate that Russia has allies and can continue the war regardless of US intervention. Trying to convince Trump that it is better to walk away, rather than commit to a long, painful struggle in Europe. A strategy that does not appear to be working, Trump taking to Truth Social on 3 September with an aggressive post stating Russia, China and North Korea are conspiring against the US.
Further, the Kremlin’s ‘business-as-usual’ responses to US and European statements appears poorly judged. For example, last weekend Russia launched the largest air attack to-date on Kyiv. An action that generated an immediate negative response from Trump, including more threats of sanctions. The BBC reported Kremlin spokesman Dimitry Peskov’s response to Trump’s threat of sanctions as follows” The Kremlin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Monday that no sanctions would ever be able to force Russia to “change the consistent position that our president has repeatedly spoken about.” A good example of Russia’s ‘business-as-usual’ hardball statements that seem to be pushing Trump closer to Europe.
Meanwhile on the battlefield, ‘winter is coming’
In previous posts we have described the land campaign as an operational-level turning movement. Russia’s main effort being in Donetsk, and both sides conducting operations to draw opposition forces away from this area. First Ukraine near Kursk, and then Russia near Sumy.
Now with winter approaching, Ukraine appears to have defeated Russia’s Summy offensive. Russia has responded to this situation by re-organising its forces and moving troops from that region, and from the south into Donetsk preparing for a final push before autumn rain or winter snow freezes the frontline. The Telegraph Reported on 4 September, that in Paris, President Zelensky told the assembled European leaders that “Kremlin has gathered 100,000 soldiers on the eastern side of the front in preparation for an assault on Pokrovsk.”
On 6 September, The Institute for the Study of War reported that “Ukrainian Dnipro Group of Forces Spokesperson Lieutenant Colonel Oleksiy Belskyi reported that the Russian military command is concentrating significant forces in Donetsk Oblast and that the most intense fighting is occurring in the Pokrovsk direction.” The Kyiv Independent reported on 8 September that “Toward the end of August, hardened Russian units, including the 155th and 40th Naval Infantry Brigades, were reported to have been redeployed to the Pokrovsk front”.
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Clearly, Russia is moving forces from other areas like Sumy and Kherson to Donetsk. Concentrating roughly 30-40% of their total combat power on this axis and preparing for a large offensive. The objective appears to be Pokrovsk but we should expect Russia to switch its line of advance depending on how the battle develops. For example, if Pokrovsk proves to hard to capture, expect a switch towards north towards Kostyantynivka or south to try and encircle the town.
The next couple of weeks will be a period of intense fighting. Russia trying to capture a tactically significant Ukrainian stronghold like Pokrovsk or Kostyantynivka that they can use as a firm base from which to attack the ‘Fortress Belt’ before the weather makes combat more difficult. Putin will want to hold one of these pieces of key terrain to reinforce the argument that Russia taking Donetsk is inevitable during negotiations with Trump.
Currently, the key question in the land campaign is whether Ukraine can defeat this attack. A question that will remain extant for sometime yet, during autumn last year Russia’s tempo increased and Ukraine’s defences were tested. However, autumn and winter 2024 were drier and warmer than normal, so this year’s campaign may develop differently.
Conclusion
Putin appears to have under-estimated the ability of Europe’s leaders to manage Trump, and Europe’s diplomatic offensive continues to gently nudge the US president towards supporting Ukraine. A slowly developing threat that Putin does not seem to have appreciated. Instead, the Russian leader continues to try and demonstrate to Trump that the war is unwinnable and that US participation is a morale sapping waste of resource.
Last week, Putin and the Kremlin stuck to this information operation. But time appears to be running out. Europe’s soft-talking, clever statesmen are gently manoeuvring Trump with flattery and the fear of missing out into supporting Ukraine.
However, in the next couple of weeks while the diplomatic battle unfolds the action is going to be in Donetsk. Where either side could win a significant victory. Ukraine by defeating Russia’s new offensive, Russia by capturing a tactically significant town. It is impossible to predict the outcome of the approaching battle, but be ready for plenty of action.
Ben Morgan is a bored Gen Xer, a former Officer in NZDF and TDBs Military Blogger – his work is on substack
First Principles: America’s Pursuit of Primacy
At the end of the Cold War, as the New York Times (NYT) reported in its 1992 article, “U.S. Strategy Plan Calls for Insuring no Rivals Develop,” the US sought to create “a world dominated by one superpower whose position can be perpetuated by constructive behavior and sufficient military might to deter any nation or group of nations from challenging American primacy.”
https://www.nytimes.com/1992/03/08/world/us-strategy-plan-calls-for-insuring-no-rivals-develop.html
The same article would note Washington’s rejection of “collective internationalism,” referred to today as “multipolarism.”
Washington’s goal is to prevent the formation of any cohesive, multipolar alliance that could effectively counter its hegemonic ambitions. By picking off nations one by one or a few at a time, the US hopes to maintain its dominance and prevent a unified front from ever materializing.
While the immediate focus is on the Asia-Pacific, nations in the Middle East, Latin America, and Africa are also being strategically targeted. The destabilization of Syria, the persistent pressure on Iran, and ongoing efforts to isolate nations across the rest of the multipolar world who maintain ties with Russia and China (like Thailand and Cambodia in Southeast Asia) are all part of this larger plan.
As long as primacy remains the unifying principle of US foreign policy, “pursuing peace” is simply a means of buying time to rectify setbacks in one region while doubling down in another like militarily Venezuela.
Continuity of Agenda Under Trump
Since coming to office, the Trump administration itself has continued every conflict and confrontation inherited from the previous Biden administration in pursuit of global primacy including the US proxy war in Ukraine against Russia, a confrontation with Iran escalated to outright war this past June, and the continued expansion of America’s military footprint in the Asia-Pacific region along China’s periphery and even within its borders on the island province of Taiwan.
Together, these policies represent a continued attempt by the US to encircle, contain, undermine, and over-extend the Russian Federation, ultimately seeking to precipitate a Soviet Union-style collapse even as the US feigns interest in “peace” with Russia in Ukraine.
A pause in Washington’s proxy war on Russia in Ukraine will simply see US efforts shift elsewhere.
The current geopolitical landscape is a high-stakes game of geopolitical chess, and while the US believes it can corner its rivals one by one, a coordinated checkmate from the multipolar world could end the game for good. Success means a world defined by peace, stability, and prosperity amid a global balance of power. Failure means forfeiting our collective future to a handful of special interests in the US who have already demonstrated for a century the means and desire to destroy it.
What Xi Jinping hosting Modi and Putin reveals about China’s plans for a new world order
Published: September 4, 2025 4.26am NZS
https://theconversation.com/what-xi-jinping-hosting-modi-and-putin-reveals-about-chinas-plans-for-a-new-world-order-262244
….As far as alliances go, one between China, Russia and India would be a formidable factor in the remaking of the international order. But while there was an impressive display of solidarity between the three leaders, they are united by little more than their opposition to the current US-dominated order…..
The continiental plates are shifting, some are being forced apart, some are being forced together.
Twice in human history have two opposed global blocs, or alliances, formed to redivide the world. We all know how that turned out.
Two rival global blocs are forming again.
What are the forces behind these tectonic shifts in international relations and global aligments?
What are the forces that are driving global powers to seek out allies, agree on who their enemies are, and form into powerful opposing blocs?
Why?
On the national scale we are all told we must have growth, political parties compete to be the party of growth.
On the international scale, endless growth on a finite planet pushes countries and economies to cross all natural and national boundaries, war on the climate, war on the environment – and war on each other.
Endless growth is the logic of the tumour, it eventually destroys the host.
As the superpowers of our time jostle for advantage, clash and drift apart, or rejoin, neither Ben Morgan or pseudononymous, stephen lennon, ever ask, why?
Ben and stephan demand we choose a side, the why is irrelevant.
In their monochromatic world view it is sufficient that the other side are “evil doers”.
Which explains nothing.
In their narrow partisan world view, their chosen side is better than the other’s ‘evil doer’ side. Neither are right, both sides by necessity alone, are as bad as each other.
Why?
Why should we choose sides?
As the super powers jostle and realign, looking for the best advantage as they prepare for war.
Why should we join their war preparations?
If we can’t stop the coming war, we should at the very least try to stay out of it.
If we are to avoid the coming conflagration, New Zealand desparately needs to begin the process of shedding all our foreign military and intelligence alliances, and applying for global recognition as a neutral country.
Friend to all, enemy to none.
The Switzerland of the South Seas.
Who knows? The idea might catch on.
Lot of wishfull thinking there Ben, all based on your misconception that US imperialism, and their current mecurial leader are motivated by humanitarian concerns, or in Trump’s case personal vanity. (FOMO).
We tend to think of imperialism as a system of violent military agression to seize territories and resources, but imperialism is more than that, first and foremost imperialism is an economic system.
No matter how egotistical Trump is personally, the American president is ruled by the need to maintain the global system of trade that benefits him personally, and other global oligarchs, generally.
The threatened increased US sanctions on Russia never materialised, Trump did a deal with with Putin in Alaska to pump Russian oil in Russia’s far east. While hitting India with much bigger tariffs than that imposed on Russia, allegedly for importing the same Russian oil.
The US views India and indeed even Europe as economic rivals, alongside China.
From the BBC:
Donald Trump: European Union is a foe on trade
https://www.bbc.com › world-us-canada-44837311
15 Jul 2018
….What did Trump say about Europe?
Asked to name his biggest competitor and foe globally, the US president said there were “a lot of foes” and named Russia and China among them, but the first on his list was the EU…..
…..”I think the European Union is a foe, what they do to us in trade. Now you wouldn’t think of the European Union but they’re a foe,” he said.
From Ben Morgan:
“On 5 September a group of European leaders met in Paris to discuss the war…..
…..The meeting produced some tangible results; 26 nations agreeing they were willing to commit military force to secure peace in Ukraine after a ceasefire,
Essentially NATO is history, Europe is on their own.
Ironically the Europeans have called their proposed peace keeping force, sans the US ‘Coalition of the Willing” to remind the US of the pressure that the US empire brought on Europe to support America’s wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
It’s become increasingly clear that Europe has exactly zero influence over Putin. Putinwill listen to Trump, but not Ursula von der Leyen (or even NATO leader Mark Rutte). The notion Europe making some sort of collective fist against Russia is laughable without US involvement. I expect any “big battle” for Donetsk will be soundly crushed by Russian forces just like all the others that came before.
I’m more concerned about this latest development (that just happened moments ago), which seems highly escalatory by Russia:
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/poland-scrambles-jets-safeguard-airspace-after-russia-launches-strikes-western-2025-09-09/
The Russians just trying it on, they know Article Five is a dead duck, well at least as far as the Americans are concerned
Wonderful. The Polish slaves of America need to be taught a lesson.
Mehdi Hasan on X
@mehdirhasan
When Putin bombs an apartment building in Ukraine, western media and political elites go crazy.
When Israel does it in Gaza at ten or 100 times the scale, silence from those same elites.
The racism is raw and brazen.
(Hey I didn’t say it Ben)
https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=10239897904815641&set=a.1626192504825
As UK and France require IMF bail outs, as ADF candidates drop dead unexpectedly, as Germany falls deeper into recession and deindustrialisrs, as the French government falls…..there’s Ben championing their ability to control Trump. WTF, Trump can’t control himself and Ben reckons the likes of Ursula Fond of Lying can. Magical thinking.
Nick J September 10, 2025 At 7:59 pm
“…… Trump can’t control himself and Ben reckons the likes of Ursula Fond of Lying can. Magical thinking.”
I can agree with that.
America and the Trump administration have their own priorities, and they are not set by Europe or Ukraine.
The continental plates are shifting.
Horrible just horrible. US forces in Korea, just like imperial Japan before them, abused ‘Comfort Women’.
Le Monde reports on the case of South Korean women forced into prostitution
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/united-states/article/2025/09/09/south-korean-women-file-landmark-forced-prostitution-lawsuit-against-us-military_6745189_133.html
South Korean women file landmark forced prostitution lawsuit against US military
More than 100 victims filed a fresh lawsuit officially accusing the US troops, for the first time, their lawyer announced on Tuesday. The lawsuit seeks $7,200 in compensation per victim.
Le Monde with AFP
Published on September 9, 2025, at 10:56 am (Paris)
More than 100 South Korean women forced to work as prostitutes for US soldiers stationed in the country have filed a landmark lawsuit accusing Washington of abuse, their lawyers said on Tuesday, September 9. Historians and activists say tens of thousands of South Korean women worked for state-sanctioned brothels from the 1950s to 1980s, serving US troops stationed in the country to protect the South from North Korea….
…..Unlike the better-known “comfort women” used by Japanese soldiers until the end of World War II, those who worked for the US troops have received relatively limited attention, largely due to Washington being Seoul’s key and longtime security ally….
…..”I still cannot forget being beaten by US soldiers – slapped for lowering my head while pouring drinks, for not smiling, or for no reason at all,” one of the plaintiffs, in her 60s and who did not wish to give her name, said in a statement sent to Agence France-Presse (AFP). She said she was only 17 when she was tricked into the job – she thought she was going to be a bartender, but was forced into sex work and told she could not leave due to her “debt.”….
….”Every night we were dragged to US soldiers and sexually abused. Every week we were forced to undergo venereal disease tests. If there was the slightest abnormality, we were locked in a small room and injected with a thick needle of strong penicillin,” she said. “The shots were so harsh that my legs gave out and I couldn’t even walk.”…..
….The United States Forces Korea (USFK) told AFP it was “aware of the reports regarding the issue,” adding “we will not comment while legal proceedings are ongoing.”
Yuk. Just, yuk!
There is something about hubris of military forces stationed in another people’s country that brings out the worst in human beings, that makes them think the local people are to be exploited and abused
But, and this is the kicker. Le Monde wouln’t even report this case, if it wasn’t for the chasm opening up between the US and Europe.
Compare Le Monde’s coverage of this scandal to the silence of our media and commentators like Ben Morgan who are still loyal water carriers for the US empire.
I would say Putin is playing an extremely intelligent game. Trump is his man in the White House, yet everyone says he’s largely independent
Trump is delaying US action against Russia time and time again so Putin achieves his strategic objectives against the EU, but eventually action will happen but everyone will think it’s for reasons other than what Putin wants, eg. to get into heaven, Nobel Peace Prize
Trump views the European Union and China as bigger rivals to US hegemony than Russia. It suits the Trump administration to have the EU bogged down in a quagmire in Europe. So that the US can concentrate on the Pacific region.
Ben Morgan suggests that if the Europeans spend more time groveling and flattering US president, Donald Trump, that they might get the US to re-commit to NATO.
The Europeans themselves take a more pragmatic view;
https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/other/russian-drones-force-europe-to-defend-itself-perhaps-alone-as-putin-puts-down-a-marker-to-nato/ar-AA1Mpwb8?
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