The Alaska Summit is over, and initial indications are that the leaders dialogue met the low expectations of most observers. In terms of the war, the key point is that the summit is likely to have little immediate impact on the campaign. Bad news for Ukraine which currently faces enormous pressure on its front line, including a recent Russian penetration of their lines north of Pokrovsk.
An initial assessment of the Alaska Summit
Currently, we are still in the immediate aftermath of the summit so our information comes from the joint press conference held immediately after the meeting. Last week’s essay ‘The ‘Art of the Deal’ versus Putin’s diplomatic Judo’ ( https://benmorganmil.substack.
Therefore, we assessed that Putin would use the opportunity of a face-to-face meeting to flatter and charm President Trump, aiming to encourage him to take action that will create a wedge between NATO and the US, either by:
- Getting Trump to offer concessions to Russia that Ukraine and its European allies would find unacceptable. For example, offering to swap Ukrainian territory for a ceasefire.
- Presenting a cease fire proposal that was unacceptable to Ukraine. For example, offering a partial ceasefire that favours Russian interests.
Two unpalatable options, that could force Ukraine and Europe to ‘go their own way’ without US support. A situation that would split NATO and the US allowing Russia to keep fighting safe in the knowledge that the ‘arsenal of democracy’ is closed. Russia would then be able to prosecute its war with Ukraine for years before the European defence industry can provide similar war winning support, or there is a change in US policy.
It was also assessed that Putin may be looking for an exit strategy because he knows he cannot continue the war at the current pace. Therefore, a peace deal that can be touted as a political victory and provides time for Russia to re-arm and re-build is another way Putin could benefit from the negotiation.
Observation 1 – Putin entered the negotiations ‘on the back foot’
The post-summit press conference provided some notable insight, especially about the dynamic between the US and Russia. Putin was on a charm offensive, praising the US leader and even admitting that if Trump had been president, he would not have invaded Ukraine. A charm offensive in the meeting was predicted, but this level of public deference is noteworthy.
Putin is heavily invested in winning the charm offensive, and my assessment is that it must be tough for him to stand up in public flattering Trump. Regardless of his other faults, Putin is educated, well-travelled, relatively sophisticated and an experienced statesman. He also has a deep sense of history and sees himself as a servant of ‘Greater Russia,’ a person that I think would see business as necessary but vulgar. For instance, look at his brutal handling of any oligarch that displeases him. So, it seems unlikely that he sees Trump as an equal and it must be hard for him to publicly charm and flatter him. Putin making this sacrifice indicates how worried he is and that he needs to reset the situation.
The press conference confirmed that Putin entered the negotiations in a position of weakness, feeling that he desperately needs to win Trump’s favour.
Observation 2 – Russian ‘wins’
Russia has achieved some important victories at this stage. First, Putin’s face-to-face meeting with the President of the US is a victory. The meeting elevates Putin and Russia into being an equal of the US. Retired Australian general, Mick Ryan summed up the incongruity very well, writing that “This is a major, and unnecessary, concession by America to the smaller, poorer and much less powerful nation of Russia. Having expended a large proportion of its national financial reserves in a war where they have seized less than 20% of Ukrainian territory and have lost over 1 million casualties, Russia is not a position to make demands of the Trump administration. But that is what has apparently occurred, and what Trump agreed to, with the exclusion of Ukraine and Europe from negotiations.” The fact that Putin was offered the opportunity to negotiate directly with Trump is a big diplomatic win for Russia, and provided a great opportunity for Putin.
The second ‘win’ for Putin is that the meeting has delayed the imposition of economic sanctions on Russia. Ukraine is under considerable pressure so punishing economic sanctions on Russia would have been good news. Sanctions do not have an immediate effect but there is evidence that existing sanctions are affecting Russia’s economy. I suspect that Putin is very concerned about recent threats of higher sanctions, especially Trump’s recent imposition of tariffs on India for buying Russian oil. So, pushing the risk of sanctions out further is a ‘win’ for Putin.
Further, Putin has bought Russia time, after this meeting there will be more meetings. We can be sure that Putin has a clear strategy to draw out the negotiation process for as long as possible, using this time without US sanctions or support to push his soldiers forward.
A final noteworthy point is that at the press conference Putin clearly re-iterated his points about resolving the ‘root causes of the war,’ code for disarming Ukraine and ensuring that it does not join NATO.
Observation 3 – The situation is not a complete loss for Ukraine and Europe
Although Putin has achieved several victories, Ukraine and Europe were not ‘cut loose’ by Trump. Some commentators were worried that the Alaska Summit would be an opportunity for Russia and the US to ‘cut up’ Ukraine. Developing a bi-lateral plan that the US would force upon Ukraine.
Based on the post summit press conference this does not appear to be the case. Instead, it looks more like discussion was relatively limited, no details of proposals or deals were discussed at the press conference. Instead, the short meeting appears to be about Trump trying to bring Putin to the table rather than making an ad hoc deal. A hypothesis reinforced by Trump’s statement that he planned to phone President Zelensky and European leaders soon to discuss the meeting.
Observation 4 – The Ukraine War may be a small element in wider US strategy
The press conference included references to business opportunities and Russo-American policy in the Arctic. Combined with previous statements from Trump and Secretary of Defence, Peter Hegseth, this makes me speculate that there is a larger strategy for developing a Russo-American détente that contributes to isolating China.
Essentially, it may be that Trump wants to end the Ukraine War quickly on relatively good terms with Russia, hoping that Russia will support the US against China. Russia controls half of the Arctic Circle, and could be a valuable ally in any confrontation with China. Therefore, it could make sense to the Trump White House to try and finish the Ukraine War without destroying Russia, even if it means sacrificing some Ukrainian territory.
An update on the land campaign
Currently, the land campaign is focussed on Donetsk, Ukraine’s eastern oblast (region). This week Russia made a surprise advance in Donetsk. Small groups of Russian soldiers, surprised Ukrainian forces and advanced approx. 16 km into Ukrainian territory between 8-13 August.
The advance was sudden and threatened the possibility that Russia could open a larger salient and envelop Pokrovsk. However, by 15 August Ukraine appeared to have stabilised the situation and is successfully counter-attacking to reduce the salient. See the map below. It was reported that the reason for Russia’s success that a section of frontline defences was not well manned allowing Russian soldiers to infiltrate deep into Ukrainian territory.
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This is likely to be true, Ukrainian forces are thinly spread and situations like this are inevitable. It is important to note that to-date Russia has not been able to expand the salient or exploit the situation. Ukraine stabilised the situation and quickly counter-attacked, actions that indicate Ukraine has reserves available, ready to deploy.
Further north within Donetsk, the situation at Chasiv Yar, a small town on high ground overlooking the important transport junction in the town of Kostyantynivka remains stable. Russia is still unable to advance on Kostyantynivka, a town that if captured would provide Russia with a logistic base, and control of important supply lines to attack the two large Donetsk cities that remain in Ukrainian hands; Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.
Meanwhile, Russia’s attempt to draw Ukrainian forces away from Donetsk by attacking in the north near Sumy remains unsuccessful. Ukraine continues to hold the line despite fierce fighting.
Conclusion
In my opinion, Putin’s behaviour at the Alaska Summit demonstrates that he is worried, and trying hard to use his personal influence over Trump to achieve an advantage. But for all his flattery and charm, the Alaska Summit was a limited victory for Russia. Putin managed to get a face-to-face meeting, has stalled the imposition of sanctions and is establishing conditions for a long negotiation process. A situation that he hopes will keep oppressive US sanctions at bay for longer.
However, Trump does not appear to have made concessions to Russia or agreed cease fire terms that would disadvantage Ukraine, but we will get a better picture of the talks this week when he briefs his Ukrainian and European allies. Further, Trump included Zelensky in his address indicating that he has an important role working with Russia to resolve the conflict. This behaviour indicates that Putin may soon be negotiating with Zelensky and representatives of European powers instead of Trump. A much more difficult proposition for him.
Meanwhile on the battlefield in Ukraine, Russia’s surprise advance north of Pokrovsk has been contained and is now being counter-attacked. A notable development because we can be certain that with the Alaska Summit coming up, Russian forces committed everything they had to achieving a tactical victory last week. The initial attack was successful but the speed with which it has been countered indicates Ukraine still has reserves and is far from defeated.
In conclusion, the Alaska Summit is likely to have limited impact on the campaign but has started the negotiation process. Negotiations will probably be long and difficult because Putin is still committed to turning Ukraine into a Russian vassal and will use the process to stall US aid for Ukraine. Meanwhile, Trump may have bigger objectives than Ukraine, like building a relationship with Russia to isolate China. It is impossible to predict how this negotiation will develop, but we should expect the Ukraine War to continue for some time yet.
Ben Morgan is a bored Gen Xer, a former Officer in NZDF and TDBs Military Blogger – his work is on substack
. Amuse yourself with the tantalizing thought of a Nixon-Putin summit. Ask yourself “What would Kennedy have done?”. Go thewhole hog and picture Norman Kirk in the role.
Welcome to the working week
Statler and Waldorf.
Laurel and Hardy? Which would you pick?
That’s a tough choice. Statler and Waldorf do have the “grumpy old men” thing going for them.
I defer. Senile wins.
“…..we assessed that Putin would use the opportunity of a face-to-face meeting to flatter and charm President Trump, aiming to encourage him to take action that will create a wedge between NATO and the US.” Ben Morgan
This is not about individuals or their egos or personalities, US imperialism is a bi-partisan policy supported by both democratic and Republican parties. And in Russia imperialism is also state policy.
Ben gets it right when writing that a wedge will be created between NATO and the US.
What we are seeing is a shifting in imperialist ‘interests’ happening in real time.
Henry Kissinger put it in a nutshell. “America has no permanent friends or permanent enemies, only permanent interests”.
Both Russia and the US want access to Ukraine’s resources, especially Ukraine’s rare earths. Currently China is the main supplier of rare earths to the global market. The US want a major source of rare earths independent of China. Another benefit for US imperialism over doing a deal with Russia over Ukraine would be to split Russia away from an alliance with the Chinese.
All imperialist nations and blocs are rivals. Sometimes they form alliances with one rival imperialist bloc against another imperialist bloc. Other times they don’t.
Sometimes they even switch alliances, and make deals with their former enemies.
This is what we are seeing.
According to the Telegraph and other sources, Trump and Putin were set to discuss a traditional 19th Century style imperialist carve up of Ukraine for its resources, Russia and US were even set to discuss possible joint ventures for the exploitation of Alaska’s mineral resources.
The fly in the ointment was Ukraine steadfastly refusing to give up their independence and agree to be a bargaining chip between these two imperialist rivals. And that no deal could be made over their heads. And that Ukraine with EU support would keep on fighting.
But no doubt this carve up was discussed in the almost three hours they talked. Trump and the US state department will now try to pressure Ukraine to accept the division of their country.
This is the nature of imperialism.
Re rare earths. China does not hold a monopoly on deposits. They are all over the globe. What the Chinese have are easily accessed major deposits plus the b products of large scale metallurgy. Nobody competes due to cost and time-frames (takes years to set up and massive capital). Ukrainian deposits are of no great significance, nice to have in a decade or two.
China has human capital. Meanwhile, the zionist Zelensky has been getting as many of the Slavs he hates killed as possible. So who’s going to develop any industry there?
The imperialist bootlickers are out in force trying to conceal the vicious true nature of imperialism, whichever imperialist power it is that they support.
Imperialism is first and foremost and economic system.
Ukrainian deposits are of no great significance, says Kremlin troll Nick J
From the Telegraph
13 August 2025 9:25pm BST
Trump to offer Putin minerals for peace
US president will propose money-making opportunities to encourage Russia to end Ukraine war
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/news/2025/08/13/trump-to-present-minerals-deal-to-putin-in-alaska/
….The US president will arrive at the much-anticipated meeting with his Russian counterpart on Friday armed with a number of money-making opportunities for Putin.
They will include opening up Alaska’s natural resources to Moscow and lifting some of the American sanctions on Russia’s aviation industry, The Telegraph can reveal.
Proposals include giving Putin access to the rare earth minerals in the Ukrainian territories currently occupied by Russia.Scott Bessent, the US treasury secretary, is understood to be among administration figures briefing Mr Trump ahead of his meeting with Putin in Anchorage.Mr Bessent is exploring the economic trade-offs the US can make with Russia in order to expedite a ceasefire agreement…..
Trump will offer Russia mineral rights to Eastern Ukraine with joint US investment, if the fighting stops. The US will get exclusive control of the mineral rights in Western Ukraine, with some possible Russian investment in Ukraine and Alaskan mineral extraction and refinement.
From the Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies
May 1, 2025
What’s the Deal with Trump’s Ukraine Mineral Agreement?
The new agreement will allow the United States to share in future revenue earned from Ukraine’s critical mineral reserves. It is seen as a way to tie the United States and Trump to Ukraine’s future.
Article by Heidi Crebo-Rediker
https://www.cfr.org/article/whats-deal-trump-ukraine-mineral-agreement
…..In the deal’s announcement, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said it showed Russia that President Donald Trump and his administration is “committed to a peace process centered on a free, sovereign, and prosperous Ukraine over the long term.
“I didn’t want to make a complicated deal,” Trump said. “Rare earth is called rare for a reason—and they have a lot—and we made a deal where our money is secure, where we can start digging and doing what we have to do.”
The Ukrainian Geological Survey reports the country has vast untapped critical mineral deposits. This includes titanium, lithium, graphite, nickel, and cobalt, which are seen as essential for emerging technologies.
The geopolitical rivalry between the United States and China has put critical minerals at the center of the U.S. national security agenda. The United States is dependent on China for many critical minerals and rare earth elements used in modern technologies, including advanced defense systems, aerospace, renewable energy, and manufacturing. Worse, China is weaponizing this dominance in the context of the current trade war and in response to U.S. export controls on technologies such as advanced semiconductors.
Ukraine’s vast reserves of critical minerals and rare earth elements—assuming they are commercially recoverable—can provide a future potential secure supply chain of many materials the United States needs. Ukraine is especially rich in titanium, graphite, and lithium, but many of the rare earth deposits are located in contested land or too close to active war zones to be developed.
While these scumbags dicker over Ukraine like it is some sort of 19th Century colonial possession to be divided between them. The Ukrainina people might have something to say about that.
While Trump and Putin may be prepared carve up Ukraine between them, EU leaders who are in conflict with the US over trade and tariffs and in fear of Russian expansionism, in opposition to both Trump and Putin, have thrown their support behind Ukraine.
Pat China has the monopoly manufacturing capacity of these rare earth materials and Iran has tons of it not Ukraine
stephen lennon August 18, 2025 At 10:19 am
Pat China has the monopoly manufacturing capacity of these rare earth materials and Iran has tons of it not Ukraine
That may be so. Ukraine may have less rare earths than China and Iran. But China won’t be letting the US have any of it if war breaks out between them. And I doubt that Iran an ally of China will let the US have any of theirs either. So the US need a secure war time source of rare earths for their war machine.
WWII was called the war of the factories. WWIII will be a war of the tech industries.
https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/abs/cambridge-history-of-the-second-world-war/war-of-the-factories/7E9FE9C710B89EEB5E55145D2B11010B
Hahahaha, hilarious. Ben will try any excuse to defend his warmongering NATO masters. Apparently only cowards engage in diplomacy.
Now back to beating your daughter for having the audacity to try and learn how to read Mo?
Seriously JB have you really read this guy’s articles? He’s pro NATO big time
‘JB’ is a foreign whore.
My guess is that I am a lot more ‘domestic’ than you are Mohammed.
Is it completely out of line to suggest that Trump doesn’t really care at all about the Ukraine, or conflict in Palestine for that matter, and he is only involved because he wants to win the Nobel Peace Prize
Re rare earths. China does not hold a monopoly on deposits. They are all over the globe. What the Chinese have are easily accessed major deposits plus the b products of large scale metallurgy. Nobody competes due to cost and time-frames (takes years to set up and massive capital). Ukrainian deposits are of no great significance, nice to have in a decade or two.
Russia’s military have got nothing on the IDF. If you are going to invade and crush your neighbor you need to be ruthless and be prepared to conduct military operations directly against civilians. This has been extremely effective in Gaza – the IDF now have total control and dominance of the entire population.
Putin is too soft to make significant headway in Ukraine. Likewise Zelinsky – if he wants victory he needs to up the number of direct attacks on Russian civilians.
The IDF have redefined modern warfare and the levels of permissible brutality. Those that can attain the IDF’s military capacity and skillset will be the dominant military force in the future.
It’s rather ironic that Russia binds it’s actions with legal restraints against bombing the daylights out of civilians. Meanwhile Western backed Israel ignores any legal or human niceties and kills deliberately.
Not to mention that there is no reason to think that the conflict would have kicked off if the Ukraine coup regime could have just not spent years shelling schools and kindergartens with artillery, as documented by the OSCE observers in the Donetsk and Luhansk Republics prior to Putin finally stepping in to stop the slaughter.
I suspect Putin and Trump are making a deal to carve up Ukraine for mutual benefit with or without Zelenskyy’s cooperation. We’ll know more in the next few days when Zelenskyy meets Trump at the White House. One thing I am near certain of is that both Trump and Putin know Europe is incapable to continue supporting the war without US involvement. Zelenskyy I’m not so sure – he often seems he does not fully understand the predicament he is in and how the “super powers” tend to ultimately only operate only for their own self-interest.
Although Putin no doubt does despise his wretched victim Trump, his distaste for that individual is doubtless mollified by the fact that, as a KGB agent, he has suborned a serving US president, and has him capering upon his leash like a dancing bear. Trump may be disgusting, but he reminds Putin of a notable triumph, at a time when other triumphs are few and far between.
Putin’s goal at the Alaska talks was simply to keep America from putting it’s weight behind Ukraine. For now, Putin will feel that he can maintain the existing war for the immediate future. Russia will see a ceasefire as a chance for Ukraine to regroup, organise defences and restock armaments, so will likely oppose one. That Trump’s team are talking of a peace deal rather than a ceasefire could be seen as a win for Putin, it also enables Russia to keep nibbling away parts of Ukraine as talks continue.
Zelensky and the Europeans will sustain their efforts to keep the US involved, making concessions to Trump so he can distance himself from Biden’s approach while still effectively supporting the war. Tradition should lead Trump to standing with Europe. The problem Europe faces is what Trump deems as a fair outcome. Ukraine wants the return all of the land occupied by Russia including Crimea. Ukraine will not attain that goal militarily or diplomatically. Trump will likely see the Ukrainian demand as unrealistic and an impediment to a peace agreement, meanwhile Putin is telling Trump he wants just a little bit more of Ukraine, then he will be happy to end the war. Horribly for Ukraine, Trump may see Putin’s path to peace as the shorter one. Ukraine and the EU do not have to concede, but it could be a long wait for the next US president to arrive.
Nitrium August 18, 2025 At 11:26 am
I suspect Putin and Trump are making a deal to carve up Ukraine for mutual benefit with or without Zelenskyy’s cooperation. We’ll know more in the next few days when Zelenskyy meets Trump at the White House…..
The last time they met, Zelensky met with Trump alone, and it didn’t go well. Trump tried to feed Zelensky a dead rat. Zelensky threw up in Trump’s lap and had to be escorted out of the White House.
Trump will not be able to use the same bullying tactics at this meeting;
Trump is a bully with an emperor complex. It is best not to meet with him alone. So this time Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has come prepared and will be joined by key European leaders when he meets with Donald Trump on Monday.
The tables have been turned, Trump will not be able to play the imperialist bully boy toward Volodymyr Zelensky before a room full of EU leaders.
From TVNZ One News;
European leaders to join Ukraine’s Zelensky for meeting with Trump
https://www.1news.co.nz/2025/08/18/european-leaders-to-join-ukraines-zelensky-for-meeting-with-trump/
….Leaders from Britain, France, Germany, Italy and Finland are rallying around the Ukrainian president after his exclusion from Trump’s summit on Saturday with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Their pledge to be at Zelensky’s side at the White House is an apparent effort to ensure the meeting goes better than the last one in February, when Trump berated Zelensky in a heated Oval Office encounter.
“The Europeans are very afraid of the Oval Office scene being repeated and so they want to support Mr. Zelensky to the hilt,” said retired French General Dominique Trinquand, a former head of France’s military mission at the United Nations.
“It’s a power struggle and a position of strength that might work with Trump,” he said….
The continental plates are shifting.
What happened in Alaska was the recognition that the unipolar moment of US hegemony is over. They don’t have the power to force any deals, conversely neither does Russia have the power to take on the US head on. Therefore the war will become localized as opposed to a proxy war.
That said there still remains the question of the civil war between local Russians and the neo Nazi Galician nationalist Ukrainians.
If the US seeks “regime change” in Ukraine (which I think is on the table right now), Zelenskyy won’t have a lot say. The US could withhold all support unless there is a general election in Ukraine, for example. The CIA will rig said election is get someone “voted in” that is more favourable in signing a peace deal.
Oh dear Pat. Did you really think that that bunch of poodles together would face down Trump? They left empty handed.
This is a good read:
https://www.kunstler.com/p/an-offer-he-cant-refuse
Nitrium August 19, 2025 At 6:32 pm
This is a good read:
https://www.kunstler.com/p/an-offer-he-cant-refuse
Na, it was a pathetc read. Who could possibly believe this childish nonsense?
Fact free triumphalist bullshit from an uninformed cheerleader for Fussina imperialism is hardly very convincing..Who could possibly believe this childish nonsense?
The Russians are in a quagmire of their own making, their only escape is to withdraw back to their own border. Did they not learn anything from Afghanistan?
There is wishful thinking and there is delusion. I think you’re leaning toward on the latter if you seriously think Russia is going to simply go back to the original border with their tail between their legs. Crimea, for a start, was been officially annexed and the Kremlin has signed it into law as Russian territory. Russia holds just about all the cards right now.
What is the most important thing in the world?
He Tangata! He Tangata! He Tangata!
“Russia holds just about all the cards right now.” Nitrium
Just about?
The Soviet Union thought they held ‘just about’ all the cards in Afghanistan.
The US thought they held ‘just about’ all the cards in Vietnam.
The British Empire thought they held ‘just about’ all the cards in Ireland.
Patrick Pearse disagreed;
“They think that they have foreseen everything, think that they have provided against everything; but the fools, the fools, the fools! – they have left us our Fenian dead, and while Ireland holds these graves, Ireland unfree shall never be at peace.”
Funeral oration for O’Donovan Rossa
The Soviet Union was a collection of country states, exactly like the current European Union except formed under force. Crimea is now “Russian Territory”. If you can’t understand the difference between official annexing of a territory and an agreement between nations (even if coerced), then i can’t help you.
meanwhile –
https://southfront.press/long-arm-of-war-russian-missiles-shatter-ukrainian-west-in-one-of-most-devastating-attacks/
Coercion only works to a point. The US learnt that the hard way in Vietnam and Afghanistan. When coercion fails, the only choice is genocide or withdrawal
The penatagon papers revealed that Nixon seeriously considered dropping a nuclear bomb on Hanoi but thought better of it when a million anti-war protesters turned up in Washington. After that the only choice left for US forces in Vietnam was withdrawal.
The Zionists have been using coercion on the Palestinians for 78 years with no success, What had been previously described as a slow genocide, after October 7, the Zionists switched things up to a fast genocide.
What the Zionists don’t realise, is something that Nixon realiased, that the act of genocide will destroy the perpetrator as well as the victim.
Nuclear weapons have been called Weapons of Mass Destruction. WMD.
For imperialist invaders and colonisers the destruction wrought by nuclear weapons is an unwanted side effect, nuclear weapons are Weapons of Mass Murder, ie genocide. WMG
For all his threats to use nuclear weapons if Putin actually did it, it would be the end of his regime, because the people of the world especially the Russian people will not tolerate it.
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