At strategic-level the situation is evolving rapidly, President Trump’s threat of economic sanctions prompted diplomatic action from Russia. On 6 March, Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed that during his meeting with Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, Putin presented a new ceasefire proposal. Now a face-to-face meeting with Trump in Alaska is being organised, next Friday. At this stage representation from Ukraine, or Europe is still being debated.
Putin may not be a great strategist but it seems that his years practicing Judo, a competitive martial art that involves yielding to greater force and turning it against your opponent certainly influences his negotiating. Judo is a tough sport, competitors learn to look confident under pressure and keep fighting, traits Putin has demonstrated throughout his negotiations with Trump.
Understanding Putin’s game
Strategically, Russia is in trouble and its economy is starting to feel the impact of sanctions. Its war machine is breaking down and it faces an enlarged, united NATO. Ukraine on the other hand has the potential to defeat Russia if it can rely on consistent support from the US and its allies.
However, this is not the image Putin projects to the world. Instead, like any good Judoka he conceals his weakness while he looks for his opponent’s Achilles Heel. Looking for a vulnerable point at which he can apply pressure to achieve his goal. On the mat it might be to throw his opponent, or armlock him. In diplomacy, Putin is looking for political rather than physical leverage but the key principles remain the same.
The European members of NATO are unified and led by clear headed strategists like Jens Stoltenberg and Mark Rutte who understand the implications of the Ukraine War and are experienced in statecraft. Putin knows he is unlikely to find a point of vulnerability amongst them.
Instead, throughout the war he has worked to split the US away from the alliance and negotiate directly with Trump, who he believes he can influence. Throughout the long period of diplomacy in Istanbul, Russia has held back from meaningful engagement with negotiations. A process the BBC described as “Three rounds of direct talks between Ukraine and Russia in Istanbul have failed to bring the war closer to an end, and Moscow’s military and political preconditions for peace are seen by Kyiv and its allies as the de facto capitulation of Ukraine.”
Throughout this process Putin re-iterated Russia’s demands for Ukraine to essentially surrender. Russia’s requirements for a ceasefire include occupation of Ukrainian territory annexed by Russia, the disarmament of Ukraine, and a prohibition on Ukraine joining NATO. Conditions that would place Ukraine at grave risk of Russian military intervention in the future, and are clearly unacceptable to Ukrainians.
Throughout, Putin has projected an image of power but has held back from meaningful engagement, waiting for the opportunity to get in a room with Trump. Like a Judoka, carefully blocking and stalling to position a stronger opponent for a match winning throw.
Trump’s unexpected move
However, Trump suddenly and unexpectedly changed his position threatening powerful sanctions and imposing a 50-day deadline to negotiate on Putin, or face powerful economic sanctions. Putin followed historical precedent, said he was willing to negotiate, reiterated his terms, and bombed Ukraine more. After which the situation got worse for Putin because Trump shortened the timelines for sanctions and countered Dimitry Medvedev’s nuclear rhetoric with his own tough talk.
Last week, Trump sent Putin another strong message by doubling the rate of tariffs imposed on India. A step that Bloomberg interpreted concisely in the following 8 August headline “India’s 50% Tariff Is a US Sanction in Disguise.” Trump, the bigger Judoka pushing back, demonstrating his strength and power. And, Putin reacted in the manner any good Judoka would. He stayed calm reassessed the situation and looked for weakness.
Last Wednesday, US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff travelled to Russia to meet with Putin. Historically, Witkoff enjoys a strong relationship with Putin and has a history of repeating Russian propaganda. A property developer and friend of the US president, he has little experience in diplomacy or statecraft but plays a key role as conduit between Trump and Putin.
During the three-hour meeting Putin discussed his plan for a ceasefire, rumoured to involve Ukraine surrendering land annexed by Russian. After Witkoff returned to the US plans for negotiations started to evolve. CNN reporting that “Kyiv and its European allies have reacted with understandable horror at the early ideas of Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, that Ukraine cede the remainders of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in exchange for a ceasefire.”
On Friday, the deadline for sanctions to be imposed on Russia arrived. Instead of sanctions the White House announced that Putin and Trump would meet face-to-face on Friday 15 August. Now a series of meetings is currently underway to plan the meeting. The president and US officials will also brief European defence ministers.
And there is a great deal to discuss, for instance who will be at the meeting. Initially, Trump discussed a tri-lateral meeting with Putin but on Thursday told media that Ukraine’s President Zelensky does not need to be at the negotiation, ABC reporting that “President Donald Trump on Thursday said Russia’s Vladimir Putin doesn’t have to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in order for him and Putin to meet.”
Meanwhile, Zelensky was quick to articulate his concerns, stating that “Any solutions that are against us, any solutions that are without Ukraine, are at the same time solutions against peace” and that “Ukrainians will not gift their land to the occupier.” Ukraine’s leader keen to make sure that there is a Ukrainian voice at the table, and to challenge the idea that his country should give away land to appease an invader.
Next week’s match in Alaska
Aggressive US sanctions could have a significant strategic impact on the Russian war machine. The US is an opponent that outweighs Russia by every measure, and to use a Judo analogy Putin needs to adjust his grips and break Trump’s balance.
Although things may change suddenly, Putin probably feels that he is already ahead in the diplomatic Judo match because he knows that Trump desperately wants a ‘win.’ So, this negotiation could provide an opportunity for Putin to identify an exit strategy, or to get the US to disengage.
In this environment Putin probably aims to engage directly with Trump, face-to-face, playing the role of authoritarian strong man that his opponent appears to like and respect. It is likely that he will bring options for full or partial ceasefire terms to the table, and some are already being discussed in public. For example:
- Ukraine swapping land to Russia in exchange for a ceasefire; or
- Both sides agreeing to stop their long-range bombing campaigns.
Russia playing along, pretending to be constructive but presenting options detrimental to Ukraine. When Zelensky rejects them, he can argue that Russia is trying to negotiate but Ukraine is being unreasonable. Putin’s objective is likely to be guiding Trump into either:
- Forcing a deal favourable to Russia on Ukraine; or
- Disengaging the US from supporting Ukraine.
The former option provides an exit strategy on favourable terms. The second option further reduces US support allowing Putin to continue the war with Russia’s diminishing resources.
But, a key feature of Trump is his unpredictable nature and Alaska will provide an insight into whether the work behind the scenes of people like Mark Rutte, Alexander Stubb, and other European leaders has impacted on Trump. Many people sympathetic to Ukraine’s cause, and with an acute awareness of the threat Russia poses have invested in trying to influence Trump, and next week will be a test of whether they have succeeded in changing the president’s position. If they have Putin may be in for a shock.
An update on the land campaign
Currently, the land campaign is focussed on Donetsk, Ukraine’s eastern oblast (region). Russia’s attempt to draw Ukrainian forces away from Donetsk by attacking near Sumy appears unsuccessful. Despite fierce fighting Ukraine continues to hold the line and in some places is pushing Russian forces back.
Last week there were reports that Russia had captured Chasiv Yar, a small town on high ground overlooking the important transport junction in the town of Kostyantynivka. Capturing Kostyantynivka would provide Russia with a logistic base, and control of important supply lines that would allow it to attack the two large Donetsk cities that remain in Ukrainian hands; Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.
This week confirmed that enough of Chasiv Yar remains in Ukrainian control to stop an immediate advance on Kostyantynivka. Russia’s progress remains very limited along the remainder of the frontline in Donetsk, and it does not look like Russian forces are concentrating at either Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar or anywhere in between. Instead, Russia appears to remain committed to its policy of attacking in small numbers on a wide front, dissipating its forces.
Conclusion
Strategically, the next couple of weeks will be important as Putin comes to the negotiating table. The fact that he is negotiating tells us that either he is worried, or that he believes this is the right time to influence Trump.
My assessment is the former, that Putin is looking for an exit strategy and that by participating in the negotiations he is trying to stall and manoeuvre Trump into either forcing ceasefire conditions that are favourable to Russia on Ukraine or to tire of the situation and disengage. If Putin can achieve either of these situations then he has a win, in the first situation he has an ‘exit strategy’ from the war on favourable terms. In the second scenario he can keep fighting without worrying about US intervention.
Putin probably believes he can use his deft diplomatic Judo to divert the US president’s force away from Russia and towards Ukraine. At this point, he is ‘moving backwards to go forwards’ working with Trump but aiming to establish the conditions for a diplomatic win that either allows Russia to disengage, or removes US support.
The key player though is Trump, will his desire to ‘make a deal’ and finish the war on any terms beat the advice he has received from European leaders that support Ukraine? We do not know and only time will tell.
Ben Morgan is a bored Gen Xer, a former Officer in NZDF and TDBs Military Blogger – his work is on substack
Love how you make learning feel enjoyable and accessible for everyone here
You can’t learn anything of substance when the article is full of disinformation.
Have you found Ukraine on a map yet?
#freemoscow
Trump has to be careful not to lose the European market for USA goods and services. Already military spending in Europe is up but it is not going to the USA at the rate expected by Trump and his cronies.
I think there is another plan in play in that Trump wants the European market (twice the size of the USA market in population terms) splintered for easier influence by USA marketeers. He cant do that with Putin in the Ukraine forcing a unified European reaction (a reaction strengthened by USA intransigence).
Putin is going to eat Trump in Alaska as the bigger picture for the USA, to beat down European growth, is of greater paramount (to the USA) than ending the war. There are no cards for Trump to play with Russia, to help the USA fight this European market growth.
Putin perversely does not want European growth either (5 times the Russian market on population terms) but to save face cannot stop the war in Ukraine that would see Europe settle down again and halt or temper growth.
So both want the same deal but neither will compromise to save face and reputation.
Trump will come out of Alaska waving a useless piece of paper and Chamberlain like proclaim “peace in our time” but nothing will be settled. Russia can continue the war but at an increasing risk to the very future of Russia Empire.
I would say a chess stalemate and not a judo contest winner in sight. The USA and Russia are playing two dimension chess whilst Ukraine and Europe are playing in the third dimensional in the chess match. Trump and Putin are fast becoming bit players in this chess match.
Hahahahah more lying cope from the NATO shill.
Trump has been and always will be played by Putin. Why? Because Putin is intelligent, Trump is not.
As much as I dislike Putin (and I’m no fan of Trump either), you are correct – he is very smart.
Putin worked as a KGB foreign intelligence officer for 16 years, rising to the rank of lieutenant colonel. He resigned in 1991 to begin a political career in Saint Petersburg.
Trump was a failure throughout his schooling, one only needs to listen to him speak.
https://julianmacfarlane.substack.com/p/half-baked-alaska?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2
“What amazes me is that a lot of people think this is a serious event, rather than just another media production, a kind of trailer for a series that will never happen – America 2.0. which is also known as Trump’s America. It is not really different from Biden’s America a show for which there are no sponsors, other than Raytheon and Lockheed maybe. Desperate Housewives is more interesting.”……..
“In the case of the Trump Show in Alaska, there is nothing to celebrate. No underlying content. In fact, nothing to talk about. The “ideas” he and his “team” have mentioned so far are based on false facts and un-reason and rejected multiple times, vague and unrealistic. .
Therefore, there can be no agreements in Alaska,There have been no negotiations so far—just Trump huffing and puffing.”
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https://julianmacfarlane.substack.com/p/the-tao-of-vladimir-putin
from April 2022 ,,,,,, “Vladimir Putin has won one of the amazing strategic military victories in history.
The Ukrainians had an army of over 300,000, led by 50,000 to 100,000 fascist fanatics, with hi-tech weapons provided by NATO and with training by the best American, British and Canadian military advisors. They were confident that they could blitz what was left of the DPR and LPR and finish their campaign of ethnic cleansing.
But the lightning attack they planned for this Spring was not to happen.
The Russians struck first — fielding a must smaller force, perhaps just 100,000 strong, punching through UAF defenses and cutting them off from support — kettling them in Eastern Ukraine where they were vulnerable to artillery and airstrikes. Bruce Lee would have been proud.”
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‘Supporting Ukraine’ means supporting the kidnapping / snatching of Ukraine men ,,, who then with minimal training and zero motivation are sent unwillingly to fight the Russians.
With ‘supporters’ backing this kind of shit ,,,,, you would think they are ‘Haters’.
Now that’s efficient corraling of new meat in Ukraine …. https://www.bitchute.com/video/r8lpJw2hiB3A/
Putin doesn’t need to use leverage to split the US from Europe. That is Trump’s default position already.
Trump is asserting he can get some land back for Ukraine. On a particular news source there was a map showing the return of the land bridge from Crimea to East Ukraine going back to Ukraine in return for Russia getting all of Donetsk and Luhansk. It seems an unlikely deal. Would Russia give up all that land?
But if that proposal is real Ukraine should take it.
I think a significant deal is quite likely. I doubt Putin has agreed to a meeting with Trump just to string him along. It feels like there is real substance in this negotiation. And it seems like Ukraine recognises that.
Unlikely Wayne, the oblasts that voted to join Russia have been accepted into the Russian Federation. Legally they cannot be traded, and Putin is very “legalistic”.
More importantly when you are winning on every front you don’t trade. That indicates that this meeting is about something bigger. I suspect that it is about BRICS and an attempt to fracture it.
Remember European exceptionalism (NATO) is ova & the West is in serious trouble. The Global South is streaking ahead and can’t be stopped unless we have a nuclear exchange which is highly unlikely to happen and there are no winners.
Russia, China, Iran even poor Yemen & North Korea possess hypersonic missile technology that the west can’t seem to replicate nor have any defenses against, and these countries have huge amounts of rare earth minerals and the manufacturing capacity for civilian & military use that western countries severely lack.
I dunno Stephen, the Rand Corp believes that America can win a nuclear exchange. I forget which policy paper its in, but yeah, “dem crazy bol’ eads” as a wise man once said…
To Amanda and Christopher Luxon,
Last year I took on ‘Ukraine’ as one of my ongoing seasons with highly perturbing parallel stories. The ‘Ukraine’ story is now long left behind at my end.
Since February 2022 I have found it easier to pop myself in where I decide — to Jump not Pivot. Otherwise, I would get gobbled up as per history’s status quo regarding my life.
You say that it’s a no-brainer that a sovereign must have a say in her sovereignty — that she should be present.
How dare you always be so very late regarding the stories. I had to work them out and get myself through them AS AN OUTSIDER.
It is YOUR JOB, to tell our nation TODAY what has been going on with me.
Amanda is not belonging in The Sisterhood, that’s a fact; a small bluff from wee me on this Day of Salvation, verses the constant long running selfish bluffing emanating from your marriage against the best interests of New Zealand.
He tukaha te waka nei
Not my Prime Minister, Luxon,
Mrs Jacqueline Walter, Darryl’s wife
Today’s Tongue Twister —
Juck the Jadoka
(don’t publish!)
Putin is ex KGB, a couple of tortures and an execution order before lunch. He no doubt despises Trump as a bloated weakling in alpha male terms, but he has to deal with him as Russia’s future becomes more uncertain.
All Putin needs to do is privately and publicly praise Trump as “the greatest US President of all time” and how “he is so incredible at everything he does” and that “every country should embrace Trump’s amazing leadership”, and he can get whatever deal he wants. Putin is far from stupid (very far), and he knows how to manipulate Trump. I fully expect a rubbish deal for Ukraine they will be more or less forced to sign.
Mark Rutte: refers to Donald Trump as “daddy”
Ben Morgan: “The European members of NATO are unified and led by clear headed strategists like Jens Stoltenberg and Mark Rutte who understand the implications of the Ukraine War and are experienced in statecraft. Putin knows he is unlikely to find a point of vulnerability amongst them.”
Do you dream of being under Trump’s spray-tanned globulous mass at night, Ben?
Unlikely Wayne, the oblasts that voted to join Russia have been accepted into the Russian Federation. Legally they cannot be traded, and Putin is very “legalistic”.
More importantly when you are winning on every front you don’t trade. That indicates that this meeting is about something bigger. I suspect that it is about BRICS and an attempt to fracture it.
People have been saying that the ‘Russian economy is starting to feel the effects of…………..’ for at least a couple of years now. I just wonder how much it matters if you happen to be a dictator. The North Korean economy is shit, but it manages to produce thousands of weapons every year. I suspect that whether the economy has an effect on your war fighting ability depends very much on how much you are prepared to force your people to sacrifice.
Really what it means is that Russia has shifted its focus to whats known as the Global south .There’s a terrible assumption , a western chauvinism that only recognises itself as having any importance in the world .The west is waning, this happens in human history, the rest of the world is rising .Anyone who has been paying attention will notice that its only the Anglophones and their sycophants who are ranting about Ukraine and how important to the world it is .The rest of the world is watching on the sidelines somewhat sardonically.
It wasn’t Russia who ravaged Africa and Asia, latin America.It wasn’t Russia who imposed the opium wars on China, it wasn’t Russia who unleashed nuclear destruction on innocent civilians.
Gaza makes a mockery of everything the west says it stands for
Well said.
Russia was itself an imperial power just as the US was. It did its share of ravaging. You don’t seem to know the history of Russo – Chinese relations in the 19th and early 20th centuries, which is a weakness of your argument. You should perhaps look into that a little.
Russian imperialism has a long a dirty track record.
“It wasn’t Russia who ravaged Africa and Asia, latin America.” But not from lack of trying.
How Russia tried to colonise Africa and failed
The Kremlin would have you believe that Russia was always an anti-colonial power in its relations with Africa. That was really not the case.
https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2023/5/24/how-russia-tried-to-colonise-africa-and-failed
“Remember, you are white, a man of the superior race,” this was one of the rules Lieutenant Grigorii Chertkov espoused while deployed in Africa in the service of the Russian Empire in 1897…..
…..In the eyes of the African people who saw the Russian convoy make its way from a port in Djibouti to Addis Ababa, the Russians were probably hardly distinguishable from any other European colonial troops they had seen. Wearing white pith helmets – not only an item of headwear but also a symbol of presumed racial superiority – the Russians, like their European counterparts, were there to advance an imperial cause.
More than a century later, another Russian emissary visiting the Ethiopian capital would speak of colonialism on the African continent as if his country never tried to engage in it. At a July 2022 press conference, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov criticised the West for trying to bring back the “colonial epoch”.
His speech conveniently missed the fact that his ancestors wanted to be part of the imperial domination of Africa that defined that epoch. Indeed, today’s official Russian rhetoric outlines the history of Russian relations with Africa in exclusively anti-colonial terms. And yet, historical facts reveal that Russia was part of the imperial “scramble for Africa” – only, it failed miserably at it……
That you have to reach back so far speaks volumes
Meanwhile Russia has forgiven 23 billion dollars of debt to African nations, mostly incurred during the Cold war , when the Soviets actively supported resistance to the colonialism imposed by the European powers
They were among the few outside of Africa who supported the anti apartheid campaign in South Africa in a material sense, at a time when Nelson Mandela and the ANC were declared to be terrorists by the US and its sycophants
But we’ll forget that eh Pat , faux anti imperialist that you are
Did you read the article some years ago about Nelson Mandela’s revolver being dug up?
It had been given to him by Haile Selassie at a secret CCCP sponsored anticolonial meeting of African leaders that was being held in Russia.
I love this bit
Putin spent most of the war dealing with the genius Biden. Ben just trots out whatever suits the fantsy he is spinning.
And yes, Russia is expecting Ukraine to surrender. That is is only allowed to be called anything else to save Western blushes. Ukraine had its chances multiple times over for peace with Russia, good relations with Russia, but since the Maidan coup there have only been ultra-nationalist Russophobes in charge, and Anglo-imperial expansionists whispering sweet nothings in their ears. Ukraine have suffered and lost, as usual the elites, particularly the Foreign Western interventionists, causing the pain for the masses.
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